Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more

A new federal poll from Resolve Strategic plus a data dump from Essential Research equals a lot to discuss.

First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.

There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.

Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.

The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.

Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.

All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.

The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.

The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,799 comments on “Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more”

Comments Page 23 of 36
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  1. Chris O’Keefe
    Hearing NSW case numbers above 120 today. A jump in the number infectious in the community too, another tough day. Testing rates are incredible though.

    Testing rates, nothing. An increase is an increase.

    The whole “we only look bad because there’s so much testing going on” thing is very Trumpian. Testing’s not the issue.

  2. Interesting to see the establishment of the Menzies Institute at UMelb. Having Peta Credlin and IPA operatives on campus will certainly attract some attention!

  3. Naaman Zhou reports that a private boys’ school in Perth that charges up to $27,000 a year in fees received more than $7m in jobkeeper subsidies in 2020 while declaring an operating surplus of more than $8m. The Hale School in Perth counts cabinet minister Christian Porter and Victoria Cross recipient Ben Roberts-Smith as alumni.

    No bloody wonder.
    Can we expect more exposé from you on this?

  4. Is it just me but does Joe O’Brien on the ABC News Channel really seem to enjoy his job. Has great banter when conducting the less serious interviews but can also become serious as required.

    A good presenter.

  5. Good Morning

    ICAC for the ignorant, was set up by the Liberal party. It made Nick Grenier the best Liberal Premier in Australian history.

    An anti corruption body with teeth in the Rum Corp state.

    So an LNP supporter attacking ICAC tells you volumes about their thinking.

    Edit: Sorry I forgot. Next up. Gladys Berejikilian

  6. Steve777 @ #1040 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 10:03 am

    Meanwhile, the Liberal and National Obeids are protected…

    In fact, lauded for their use of the system in order to be able to get themselves re-elected.

    Frankly, the old ‘Eddie Obeid’ saw is getting a bit rusty. He keeps getting sent back to jail, while the Liberal rorters roam free.

  7. Kirky

    He’s a damn sight more interesting than the early morning woman, always complaining about lockdown fatigue and “I wish I was in Qld where it’s warmer”.

  8. And? Do you wish to help the Liberals too by bringing up ancient Labor history, whilst ignoring current Liberal affairs?


    There Lars, I saved you the trouble of answering.

  9. a r

    High testing rates is good as it is seeing where the virus is.

    But the fact that so many are so out and about in the community whilst infectious is still confusing to me.

    When one gets tested, they must isolate until they get their results.

    There is something amiss with the timeline of when one gets tested and then getting result.

    It is understandable if one was infectious for a small time prior to getting tested.
    But what doesnt gel, is those that are infectious in community during whole period.

  10. Ven at 10:03 am
    I did. However the article I posted mentioned all the other ‘Liberal Party Incubators” across teh nation . It’s not just a WA ‘thang’ .

  11. Steve77

    24 were in quarantine as they are close contacts of existing cases.

    The concern is the other two.

    So two in community isnt ideal.

  12. A phrase for Labor about Obeid. Use their same same against them. If Berejikilian is found guilty.

    Labor had a minister. Liberals have Premiers.

  13. ‘Victoria says:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:11 am


    24 were in quarantine as they are close contacts of existing cases.

    The concern is the other two.

    So two in community isnt ideal.’
    Cross fingers time. Vic is down to hit or miss random outcomes.

  14. But what doesnt gel, is those that are infectious in community during whole period.”

    Those who were infected but asymptomatic for a period before getting symptoms would be one quite common category. The other would be those who ignore slight symptoms, as many normally do.

  15. Player One says:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:10 am
    poroti @ #1103 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 10:02 am

    Eddie is the poster child but NSW Labor had a herd of various sized ‘Eddies’ roaming about.
    The punters know NSW Labor has not yet reformed, which is why they remain unelectable even against a crew as openly corrupt as the NSW Lib/Nats.
    Fair comment.

  16. ‘BK says:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:15 am

    It was only yesterday that Mrs BK volunteered to me that she likes Joe O’Brien on ABC24.’
    A clear signal that it is time for a charm offensive, BK. I recommend choccies, roses, sparkling and kind words. (If they fail you at least have on hand choccies and the sparkling stuff). Included should be a vague hint that you are quite taken by Fran or some such.
    Time for a story: two women in their nineties are sitting in the sun, on a park bench.
    Q. You have been married for 70 years and yet your relationship must still be very good. Why else would you still call your husband ‘Darling’?
    A. I can’t remember his name.

  17. Bushfire Billsays:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 9:59 am
    Hilarious! The party of Obeid and ICAC

    What are you raving about? It was ICAC that exposed Obeid.

    ICAC was setup by Nick Griener but it unfairly him and his Education Minister. That is another story.

  18. Victoriasays:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 9:59 am
    Voice endeavour

    I’m thinking many people in NSW still believe lockdown is ending at end of July.
    Has GladysB indicated in strong terms that lockdown will not end as outlined so far?

    No is the answer to your question. Dan Andrews did not mention that he will extend the latest lockdown till Monday this week (that is 1 day before it’s expiry)

  19. Scottsays:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:24 am
    More Liberal and national party members went to the cross bench , because they more links to Obeid than Labor members did
    This guy cracks me up. It’s a parody surely?

  20. rsays:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:01 am
    Chris O’Keefe
    Hearing NSW case numbers above 120 today. A jump in the number infectious in the community too, another tough day. Testing rates are incredible though.

    Testing rates, nothing. An increase is an increase.

    The whole “we only look bad because there’s so much testing going on” thing is very Trumpian. Testing’s not the issue.

    Yes, testing is an issue. If you get more than 10% positive rate in testing then you are doing insufficient testing. So adequate number of testing matters.

  21. ‘Scott says:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:26 am

    So you could say Lib/nats at state / federal level were the party/s of Obeid’
    No you could not. Federal Liberals is the Party of Morrison and Federal Nationals are the Party of Joyce.

  22. @jonkudelka
    The original dream of the olympics to get a bunch of fit young people together from all around the world to root like mad for a couple of weeks has been ruined by covid and the whole thing needs a major rethink.

  23. Ven

    I’m certain GladysB has the modelling of how the virus is tracking.
    She needs to share that with the people, so they know where things stand.

    as illustrated by the graphs linked last night, Victoria locked down still not having eyes on where the virus was tracking. Hence need for lockdown and extension thereof.

  24. Not sure if this has got traction yet but KK calls it out – streamlined pork barrelling designed to subvert accountability.

    … a complete subversion of the Westminster system of ‘ministerial accountability’ and the creation of a new normal where Mr Morrison decides who gets what based solely on his political ambitions,”

    Federal Labor frontbencher Kristina Keneally has raised the alarm that Scott Morrison will personally decide how to allocate $800m of manufacturing grants.

    “This grant is clearly being structured in such a way as to streamline pork-barrelling and proactively stymie scrutiny by attempting to normalise the same process that was so heavily criticised during sports rorts,”

    “The prime minister will have $800m to spend, all conveniently timed for grants to be announced during the next election campaign.”

  25. I should add that GladysB has had more than one month to track the trajectory of this virus.

    She needs to show NSW what the plan is

  26. Bushfire Bill @ #1092 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 9:54 am

    It was only three days ago that the Home Affairs minister, Karen Andrews, was saying that:

    ● the Games would bring in untold riches to SE Queensland (and indeed the nation) but,

    ● Annastacia Palaszczuk was a hypocrite for her attendance at the vital final negotiations in Japan, even though it was virtually compulsory.

    My barber, an unusually slow-witted fellow who usually talks about little else but Rugby League (and can’t cut hair in the normal sense of the word), tried a new tack on Monday by offering that Palaszczuk should be condemned for her trip.

    When I asked him why, his answer was, “Well, you know…”

    I give you, ‘average voter’

  27. Steve777says:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:06 am
    Victoria : 26 new local cases. Not good.

    If it goes at this rate Andrews may further extend the lockdown.
    As I posted a couple of days ago, more than 200 exposure sites, minimum 7 days lockdown.

    I may add if the exposure sites exceed 400 the lockdown could be beyond 2 weeks.

    No I don’t have any data or analysis to back it up. It is a thumb rule I created based on lockdown trends in VIC and NSW.

  28. Dont know how accurate this information is.

    NSW has recorded around 124 new locally-acquired COVID-19 cases, with close to 50 infectious in the community.

  29. STOP with the ‘Pork Barreling” KK !!! FFS call it what it is ,the corruption of good governance, corruption. For a start the ‘C’ word will get a shit load more notice given and taken than the bloody benign sounding cliche that is ‘pork’ .

  30. Ven

    Do you know how many exposure sites there are in NSW at present?

    Some commentary on Twitter is that there are less exposure sites in NSW than Victoria.

    I dont know if this is at all accurate.

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