First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.
There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.
Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.
The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.
Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.
All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.
The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.
The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.
Scott says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:31 am
Recon
Why did NSW libs under Baird move to the cross bench for
Why did Richard Torbay resigned as a national party member
________________________________
Scotty – he resigned because it turned out he was an Obeid associate.
Remember. Average voter thinks that way because of the for profit commercial media.
If it was conservative in the way Crikey is we would be better off. Instead we have campaign media actively lying to voters. Most recently seen with Alan Jones joining Craig Kelly rants against vaccination and lockdowns. Then having to apologise on air.
Remember this in government Labor when media law reform comes up.
Andrew Leigh
@ALeighMP
· 1h
JobKeeper was meant to ensure battlers kept their jobs; not to help expensive private schools turn a multi-million dollar surplus https://theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/22/hale-private-boys-school-in-perth-received-more-than-7m-in-jobkeeper?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other #auspol
When will Berejiklian and Morrison be held to account for their corruption?
@michaelkoziel tweets
Extremely good vaccine messaging on @kyleandjackieo just now: the UK got vaxxed with AZ, you’re much more likely to get sick from the virus, there’s plenty of AZ available, and they’ve changed the lyrics of Ice Ice Baby to Get Vaxxed Baby. Five stars.
boerwar @ #1111 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 10:06 am
Time for Albo to announce intention to call RCs if elected. If not elected intention stands until such time as Labor forms government.
This is corruption of the highest magnitude.
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:39 am
Scotty – he resigned because it turned out he was an Obeid associate.
——-
Yes , see its not just Labor members who were associated , they were from the coalition political parties which you support
@slpng_giants_oz tweets
Murdoch grim reaper Andrew Bolt blames the most recent dead covid patients for not SAVING THEMSELVES because they weren’t vaccinated and were old.
#Auspol #ThisisNotJournalism
An increase in numbers for NSW today would be unsurprisement. I would be disappointed if we didn’t increase. With so many unlinked cases, they would go to close contacts and households in particular and find a few.
Opportunity cost for people who do not use them?
I have seen two prangs, one of which left a woman writhing in agony on the concrete. She had just mounted her noble steed. I see people standing ramrod straight with straight legs, feet close together and arms more or less stretched straight to the handles. The centre of gravity is very high and there is virtually no opportunity for a bit of flexible body response to sudden perturbations in the vehicle. Add small diameter wheels, speeds that are too fast, and these things are accidents waiting to happen.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-22/electric-e-scooter-e-bike-injuries-brisbane-emergency-department/100313526
It is the unlinked and the cases not in isolation that are the key figures that I hope are decreased today.
When will Morrison and his cronies be punished for EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH?
I’m thinking many people in NSW still believe lockdown is ending at end of July.
Would they be the ones who believe in Santa Clause?
Scott says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:45 am
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:39 am
Scotty – he resigned because it turned out he was an Obeid associate.
——-
Yes , see its not just Labor members who were associated , they were from the coalition political parties which you support
____
No Scotty – My standing practice is not to explain – but for you I make an exception:
I am not a Nat voter, but even they (the Nats) drew the line at him – when they found out he was an Obeid associate. Its actually the opposite of the point you were trying to make.
Griff says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:47 am
An increase in numbers for NSW today would be unsurprisement. I would be disappointed if we didn’t increase. With so many unlinked cases, they would go to close contacts and households in particular and find a few.
__________
Why would you be disappointed if we didn’t increase? You wish for disease, illness and potentially death?
Because you perceive it to have some sort of advantage for the ALP?
I assume that Berejiklian will partially lift restrictions at the end of July. I assume she is getting smashed because of her tradie punishment regime and that re-opening the construction industry will receive top billing.
I see that Morrison has lined up another $800 million in corruption funds.
Line up. Line up. Line up.
EVERY.
boerwar @10:49
You are in luck. Somebody knows the answer.
I notice Victor Dominello has been dropped from the press conference today
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:52 am
Griff says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:47 am
An increase in numbers for NSW today would be unsurprisement. I would be disappointed if we didn’t increase. With so many unlinked cases, they would go to close contacts and households in particular and find a few.
__________
Why would you be disappointed if we didn’t increase? You wish for disease, illness and potentially death?
Because you perceive it to have some sort of advantage for the ALP?
_______________
Incredible isn’t it? Although, on a par with that Grimace guy who during the bushfires hoped LNP seats to burn. I suppose there might be Coalition fanatics who wish for similar things for Labor seats but I have yet to encounter them. Of course it must have more to do with mental health than politics surely.
Lars,
Happy to help you understand 🙂
If there are unlinked cases, there are unknown transmission lines. I hope that effective contact tracing will uncover those lines. With the vast majority of household contacts exposed becoming positive, I hope they are found. In other words, I hope the contact tracers are able to rapidly flush hidden cases out of hiding (not the fault of the cases of course – they may even be asymptomatic). Therefore, I hope there is an increase of cases today. Then I hope it decreases of course.
”
Vensays:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:21 am
ICAC was setup by Nick Griener but it unfairly him and his Education Minister. That is another story.
”
That shou le read
ICAC was setup by Nick Griener but it unfairly gobbled him and his Education Minister. That is another story.
Recon,
I hope you can experience positive growth in understanding as well 🙂
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:51 am
I am not a Nat voter, but even they (the Nats) drew the line at him – when they found out he was an Obeid associate. Its actually the opposite of the point you were trying to make.
——————
Disagree
My partner broke the manufacturing rorts story a week ago…glad is getting some traction in the MSM and the ALP.
https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/say-goodbye-to-industry-growth-centres-strap-in-for-government-grant-rorts
Gladys.. first words test numbers … unfortunately more positive.. Trump would be proud
Word of the day “ unfortunately “
Golden Gladys just said that the record number of tests yesterday “unfortunately” uncovered more positives.
124 new cases. 48 infecetred in the community.
F. Me!
Imagine if she’d locked down at Midnight on Sunday 20 June? Facepalm
124 cases. Sydney is fucked.Be lucky to be open by Xmas.Out of control.
Griff
Do not worry about Recon , he isn’t serious on anything he says
Griff says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 11:01 am
Recon,
I hope you can experience positive growth in understanding as well
_______
Ok I take your word for it. Apologies.
124 – people still visiting other households.
48 in the community.
P
lol
Is this a recording of yesterday’s NSW presser?
Come on Gladys. Stop the testing and you’d be down to zero by the weekend and you could declare Saturday “Freedom Day” .
128/48
That is very disappointing. Hang tight NSW and Vic peeps.
BK @ #1185 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 11:04 am
unfortunately it well could be
I figure labor (correctly) judge that using the “c” word to describe government rorts will open a massive can of worms that will end up embroiling themselves in.
Besides, I reckon the folksy term “pork barelling” actually has more resonance with citizen “average voter”.
But of course, this doesn’t stop them from mentioning in the same breath the need for an anti-*corruption* body – hint hint. Which of course they do.
BK
She is like a broken record being played by a parrot.
C@tmomma @ #1030 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 7:02 am
Sounds like the perfect opportunity to invite the virus in.
I missed yesterday – is Dr Chant taking a break (well earned)?
Steve777 @ #1095 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 10:49 am
They certainly don’t believe in the Sanity Clause.
boom tish! I do Weddings, Parties, anything. As long as it’s by Zoom. 🙂
President Donald J. Trump: “it’s time to SLOW THE TESTING DOWN”.
Why are there no calls by the media for Gladys to resign
boerwar
The cat in that gif is a portrait of an actual cat in Canberra last night or this morning. brrrrrrrrrrrr.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1124 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 11:07 am
To my mind it will be a measure of how desperate Gladys is for a positive announceable.
Scott
Shes still popular according to that Resolve polling.
28 in ITU
14 ventilated
No one in ITU who has been double vaccinated – suggesting there are some who have had one dose?