As reported by The Australian, the normally stable Newspoll series has recorded a solid bump in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 at the previous poll three weeks ago. The Coalition and Labor are both on 39% of the primary vote, which is a two-point drop for the Coalition and a two-point gain for Labor, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%.
Scott Morrison is down four points on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 38% and up one to 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 51-33, narrowing from 53-33 last time. The Australian’s report also relates that approval of Morrison’s handling of the pandemic is down nine to 52% (UPDATE: disapproval is up nine to 45%), and that the government now records a net negative rating on handling of the vaccine rollout for the first time, with approval down 10 points to 40% and disapproval up 11 to 57%.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.
Mexicanbeemer @ #981 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 10:01 am
Obfuscating nonsense. Trump would have killed to have “approval ratings stuck in the low 50s” at any point during his term. He pretty much did, and still couldn’t get most people to support him.
What you actually mean to say is that most voters still like Joe Biden, and he remains far more popular than Trump (who often gets plaudits for being “so very popular”, despite never having actually been).
Rex
Are you sure about your facts?
“The threat of our hospital system being flooded would be far less which means less stringent life restrictions.”
Now watch carefully what happens in the UK. It wont be pretty.
I agree that we should have done the deal with Pfizer. However, I repeat, the quarantine breach would have still lead to an extensive lockdown.
We need to take simple and obvious measures to prevent foreseeable quarantime breaches. Talking exclusively about vaccination acts to obscure this fact and it gives Gladys cover.
A.R
No what i meant is that Biden is at this stage not enjoying higher approval ratings normally associated with first term Presidents.
Mexicanbeemer @ #269 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 10:07 am
And Joe Biden isn’t attempting to implement that agenda. A person who I listen to from America listed all the things the Left of the Democrats want but haven’t gotten from Biden. They commented that he is tacking determinedly to the Centre but with a few important Left concerns thrown into the mix.
Cud Chewer
Nah, the vaccines make people far less likely to transmit to the R value would be itty bitty compared to what it is roaming among the vax free. So all the numbers much smaller, contacts ‘exponentially’ so and with the K number the outbreak snuffed out or ‘fenced off’ quite rapidly
poroti @ #276 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 10:14 am
I call that Voter Suppression. However, as I said, it’s the Voting Annulment stuff that is really scary!
C@T
Biden has been more centrelists than some thought but that has probably been a good thing because of how divided America is.
Rex Douglas @ #991 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 10:06 am
I don’t think Morrison “wants” net zero. But he’s smart enough to realize that both net zero and a carbon tax are coming whether he wants them or not. But if he can’t get agreement by November, and is again made to look like a complete fool on the world stage, he is looking for someone else to blame.
In fact, maybe he should not go to Glasgow at all. He should just send Barnaby in his place.
Beemer
When talking about Labor following Biden’s lead with smart targets it’s important to note that’s talking about campaigning.
We don’t have to rely on polls. We know the result. They are called elections. Biden and his team won the House Senate and White House. A clean sweep. Especially notable with the Georgia runoff seeing Reverend Warnock becoming a Senator with all the Socialist Communist and other culture war stuff thrown at him as Trump was in his peak of the Big Lie.
From memory it may have even been when Four Seasons Landscaping made an appearance in the US political scene.
Kevin Bonham reporting another Resolve poll.
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
#ResolvePM L-NP 38 ALP 35 Green 12 ON 4 IND 7 Others 5
2PP estimate treating IND as generic Other (recommended, Resolve methods overestimate IND) 51.4% to ALP
Treating IND as IND 52.0% to ALP.
Phil Coorey knows that many Financial Review readers are driving the net zero bus.
Mexicanbeemer @ #283 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 10:23 am
Yes. I read a pen portrait of his Chief of Staff, Ron Klain, last night and he’s a really smart guy and determined to keep Biden in the wheelhouse in the centre of American politics where suburban voters who elected Biden are.
guytaur,
It’s @briantylercohen.
@briantaylorcohen it isn’t.
Dr Chant was quoted in the media a few days ago, saying the construction site shutdown was not due to medical advice. So the medical advice in NSW is obviously the same as in Victoria.
Thus it was a political decision. We don’t know the reasoning behind that decision (if in fact it was a rational decision).
The only thing I can think of is that Gladys wanted to appear unbiased in not exempting construction from compulsory shut downs after she was virtually forced to order the closure of much retail, places of worship, family visiting and so on. It is certainly a poor way to deal with a crisis but that has been Gladys all along.
Cat
Yes. Sorry missed an autocorrect.
GG, that poll was back in May. APNorc arent yet rated by 538. mex is right in that his numbers on average, according to 538, are around the mid to low 50’s. Which, well, if you can extrapolate that to the 2022 midterm results you are smarter than your average ham.
Just quietly, I reckon the Dems would be ok with a 53-43 approval split atm.
Simon Katich
Where those numbers might influence the midterms is that they are historically difficult for the party holding the Presidency but looking to 2024 Biden looks fairly comfortable.
Separating drivers from passengers isn’t rocket surgery.
https://www.nswtaxi.org.au/post/london-taxis-helping-healthy-people-stay-healthy-in-sydney
I worked on building sites during the last SA restrictions. They were strict. Safe as houses.
Worth noting tho that in the last SA lockdown, construction sites were closed. You werent even allowed to exercise outdoors.
China opens its ETS …
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/china-s-long-awaited-market-opens-with-a-whimper-not-a-bang-20210719-p58ay1.html
Why would China want to do this?
China can deal with “developing economies that are less constrained” in various ways. One way might be that China imposes its own carbon border tax, specifically designed to punish nations like Australia that still believe they can continue to get a free ride.
When the Democrats come back from their Summer Recess it’s time to cut bait on their Infrastructure Bill. Totally by Reconciliation, or in 2 halves. Just do it.
@POTUS tweets
When I took office, my Administration knew we needed a war-time effort to get America vaccinated – and to pass a powerful American Rescue Plan. We did both.
Now, forecasters have doubled their projections of growth this year to about 7% or higher. The highest in nearly 40 years.
73% of peak and rising.
Deaths are rising. Currently equivalent to about 10,000 deaths per year if it were in Australia.
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/united-kingdom/
The Clintons declined an invitation to have tea with the Queen. As you do. At least they declined”politely”.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/20/bill-clinton-fancied-indian-rather-than-tea-with-queen
Mexicanbeemer @ #1018 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 10:08 am
I reckon things are different now. Yes, historically, midterms were tough for incumbents. Yet if this stays a defacto Trump v Biden election then I reckon it will be less an issue.
Cud Chewer @ #1002 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 10:17 am
I submitted some graphs a couple of days ago from @AlecStapp.
Here’s the link – https://twitter.com/AlecStapp/status/1416098259760734209
Mexicanbeemer @ #1003 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 9:48 am
At this stage of the first term, Biden is a lot higher than Trump, just under Obama, the same as Bush jnr, better than Clinton. No point in going further back.
SK
Yes. Trump is great for voter turnout especially the Democrats.
We won’t know until Election results come in as to who did better just like the Presidential election. Though likely lower turnout numbers than that.
Edit: I say that because though not on the ballot Trump keeps inserting himself into Republican politics.
You’d need a full team of hundreds of auditors to sort out the waste and scandals of this government.
That’s true. The primary method is to prevent the “wrong” sort of people from voting. If that fails to work sufficiently, the secondary method is interfere with the results in a variety of ways and declare the Republicans the winners anyway.
Australians need to be eternally vigilant to identify and deal with similar tendencies by the LNP here. Boris is already heading down that slippery path in the UK by trying to introduce compulsory ID for voting.
@rwillingham tweets
Lockdown extension to be announced at 1115 by @DanielAndrewsMP .
In 2022 there will be 151 seats in the House of Representatives, 76 needed for a majority.
Notionally, after redistribution, Labor hold 69 seats.
Given there is realistically no chance that Adam Bandt or Andrew Wilkie will support a minority LNP government led by Morrison or Dutton, Labor would almost be certain to form government on 74 seats (a net gain of five).
My question is what is the lowest number of net seats they need to gain to have a 50% chance of forming government?
Personally, cannot see Katter, Steggall or Sharkie supporting a Labor government under any circumstances. Helen Haines maybe a 50% chance.
NSW 78/27.
Improvement. But, further to go.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 10:04 am
Recon
You outed yourself last night.
You are the Joe Hockey kill manufacturing Reagan Thatcher trickle down style of neoliberalism.
________________
Yeah Yeah. Not supporting Protectionism doesn’t mean you support neo-liberalism.
Gladys Berejiklian has said there were 78 new local cases of coronavirus recorded to 8pm last night with 27 infectious in the community.
(Guardian)
guytaur says:
Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 10:04 am
Recon
You outed yourself last night.
You are the Joe Hockey kill manufacturing Reagan Thatcher trickle down style of neoliberalism.
We might call it protectionism but in reality government investing in bringing R&D into product manufacturing is not protectionism.
The irony is you talked up our mixed economy. When Australia had a mixed economy we had local manufacturing big time. We had full employment we had a centralised wage system.
The drivers of change in the composition of the economy have been: a) the floating of the dollar; b) the creation of a guest-worker labour force; c) changes in the global division of labour in general; d) the decline in the rates of growth of world trade and cross-border direct investment; e) the use of mercantilist trade policies in China, the EU and US; and f) the profound relaxation of fiscal and monetary policy in the advanced economies.
These are overwhelming forces.
Lockdown at 6pm
mexicanbeemer
“No what i meant is that Biden is at this stage not enjoying higher approval ratings normally associated with first term Presidents.”
Hyperpolarisation is probably largely to blame.
(Guardian)From 6pm tonight, South Australia moves into lockdown, there will now be just five reasons why people can leave their home.
From 6pm to life care and compassion reasons such as taking care of a loved one.
Number two, essential work.
Number three, purchase of essential goods, such as food for medical reasons, including vaccination and, and testing.
And the fifth and final reason is exercise but that has to be limited to people from the same household.
(they missed reason no.4)
Solid performance from Dr Chant, starting with acknowledging the latest death, and moving through the daily behaviour reminders, and noting at *all* work is essential, and that a new word needs to be found for the work which can’t be put on hold in this type of situation.
SK,
Any time frame?
Yes, a move in the right direction for NSW new local Covid cases. The start of the downward slope or still jumping around 100. We’ll see. The seven day moving average has been in the mid 90s for four days after a few weeks of steadily rising.
Those who imagine a future where Australian manufacturing stuns the world are essentially nationalists. These people take the Olympics far too seriously, anxiously watching our gold medal tally, they often fantasize about Australia possessing an Aircraft Carrier and they probably yearn for a bigger penis.
Rex
As I said, the rate of deaths in the UK, right now, is equivalent to 10,000 deaths per year (population adjusted). That number will go up.
Vaccines migjt make the case fatality rate lower, but the sheer scale of infection rate still matters.
What death rate are you comfortable with here in Oz? 20,000 per year? 40,000? Bear in mind the flu scores 800 to 1,800.
The bottom line is that even if we were vaccinated like the UK is, its not the nirvana you think it is. The limo driver quarantine breach would have still resulted in a lockdown. Arguably a shorter lickdown, but a lockdown nonetheless.
Between now and mid next year, we cannot afford more needless and avoidable quarantine breaches.
Am I being too cynical, or are the 2GB shocks going over the top criticising Operation Gladys Shield just so that when it works (as lockdowns must) they can grovel in apology and praise her efforts? No doubt with some snarky comparisons that will inevitably show NSW’s recovery was faster than Victoria’s?
Oh how the worm has turned 😆
.
US parents say Peppa Pig is giving their kids British accents.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2021/jul/19/peppa-pig-american-kids-british-accents
You’d think, wouldn’t you [or maybe that should be: one would think, wouldn’t one], that hospital emergency departments would have a sign saying, for instance, ANYONE WITH SUSPECTED COVID SYMPTOMS DO NOT ENTER, ring the bell, and wait outside.
And you’d think, wouldn’t you [ditto], that hospitals would employ a person to meet such a person outside, so that the staff of an ED and patients therein, would not have to go into isolation; i.e. Mildura hospital lost 45 staff, and who knows how many others were in the ED at the time.
And you’d think, wouldn’t you [ditto], that by now the covid symptoms are well known and any person presenting at an ED would take their symptoms seriously, and would not put others at risk by doing so.
(Guardian)
SA premier Steven Marshall says there will be no intimate partner exemption during the SA lockdown which will last seven days.
Recon
Those saying manufacturing in Australia is impossible like you are is living in fantasy land.
We can have high wages and local manufacturing.
You do not have to be a nationalist to hold this view.