The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
HAs any jurno asked Michael O’Brien the brainless twatt would he follow ‘heath advice” if he were premier & if not how would he decide when he would or wouldn’t follow it.. assuming he didn’t appoint his grandfather as heath adviser
The betting market is tight:
1.85 Labor; 1.90, the Tories – Ladbrokes. The others are close.
Confessions @ #2849 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:14 pm
Still? I thought I heard Gladys quoting stats on the reduction of movement (no doubt supposedly from Google maps or something). She wouldn’t be dissembling, would she? {/sarcasm}
At this point in time, the only correct answer to how the 2022 (21?) election is going to go is “I don’t know.”
That said, there’s an increasingly obvious stench of incompetence about this government and its standard bearer that was conspicuously absent in the 2016-2019 period – where there was definitely a pervading sense of chaos but, in hindsight, not a lot for the disengaged to be especially up-in-arms about.
Despite my last concerns, I’m actually coming around to the view Albo’s “softly, softly” approach through the first half of this term might have been the right call.
Micheal O’Brien and cronies in the Victorian Liberal Party , wanted Daniel Andrews to follow Gladys in NSW
Which would have been live with the virus and allow it to spread
As far I can see, the LNP has lost support continuously since last election and I can’t see anywhere they could have gained support.
Sceptic@7.11,
My thoughts too…my daughter who is a nurse , encouraged me to use the N95 masks.
Though these paramedics may have let their guard down during a coffee break or some such.
Lynchpin:
Its a documentary series on the history of women in the Australian parliament, featuring some very frank interviews with a number of past and present woman politicians across the party divide.
Lynchpin @ #2844 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:11 pm
Worried?
The big difference about politics from the 2019 campaign so far is the attention the pandemic has given to premiers.
Labor has used this opportunity to maximum effect. You know it’s working. The politicise everything party is already complaining about the politicisation of the pandemic.
Josh Frydenberg has been dreaming of a “number with a 4 in front of it” for unemployment ever since he awoke in a cold sweat after the
BACK IN BLACKscam turned into a spiv’s worst nightmare.How disappointing it must have been for his economic triumph to be squeezed in-between the COVID clusterfuck and the State Of Origin debacle at 7.22pm in a 7pm news bulletin on ABC.
Josh must have been wondering whether his microphone was powered on as he spoke to an empty room of how, once again, the Morrison government had triumphed.
He was only ever a second-stronger on the tennis courts, after all.
ajm @ #2853 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:20 pm
I don’t know where she was referring to, but there are still loads of people out and about. On the roads, in the shops, sports are still on.
Of course not having a definition of essential worker means there would still be loads of people working from the office that could ordinarily work from home. And they probably would be working from home if they lived in any other state.
Betting markets rarely indicate much about how a political race will go. They are partly a reflection of the polls, partly “the vibe”, and partly the educated (or less-than-educated) guesses of a rather niche subset of gamblers. Interesting, certainly, but shouldn’t be taken too seriously.
@JohnRHewson tweets
Trade Minister Tehan sounds so hollow accusing Europeans of protectionism for proposing a carbon border tax on exports from countries that are negligent with their climate policies. Morrison Govt caught short as this policy is set to spread globally
I’m interested in this proposition that the lockdowns are because the Federal Government did not secure enough vaccines.
What that criticism directly infers is that once a large proportion of the population are vaccinated that there won’t be lockdowns. We know that vaccinations don’t stop people catching or spreading the virus. So that directly infers that we are going to allow the virus into the population and accept that there will be individuals who get it and die.
If you don’t accept that as the outcome then you are proposing a continual state of lockdowns and quarantines forever.
I look forward to the ALP coming out and clearly articulating that this is the logical policy response of their current criticism of the Federal Government. Or, they can try and sell the on going lockdown scenario.
Dan Andrews presser, full
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm0ctNeK6f8&ab_channel=ABCNews%28Australia%29
C@tmomma @ #2827 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 6:42 pm
C@t, send him that Charles Laughton story, which covers how relevant a lot of contemporary art can be. Picasso is overwhelming when you are there staring at it. Barcelona is fabulous (with a great Miro museum). Of course, everywhere is risky. Hope he keeps well and travels safely.
The Guardian blog seems to be having fun tonight
Am I the only one getting huge Game of Thrones vibes from Andrews constantly referring to “the north” and “the border to the north”?
ajm @ #2829 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 6:50 pm
If the northern hemisphere is any predictor, we could be in for a hot one.
@sallymcmanus tweets
Info on your rights at work:
You have a right to refuse to perform work that endangers your health. In Sydney there is a public health order to only work outside of home if essential. Union members will be supported if they refuse work for this reason
China warns of ‘serious consequences’ following a US military plane landing in Taiwan:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1228730.shtml
I assume that this will lead to another round of dozens of Chinese PLA airforce jets and bombers entering Taiwan’s air space without so much as a by-your-leave.
guytaursays:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 7:32 pm
“@JohnRHewson tweets
Trade Minister Tehan sounds so hollow accusing Europeans of protectionism for proposing a carbon border tax on exports from countries that are negligent with their climate policies. Morrison Govt caught short as this policy is set to spread globally”
Hewson is large investor in the renewables sector so is gagging to have free government subsidies thrown at him.
There’s no guarantee that the tariffs won’t be in contravention of the WTO rules. This has yet to be tested.
Should we start applying tarrifs for countries that don’t have the same HESQ standards as us and are therefore cheaper?
Quasar @ #2857 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:25 pm
She would know too that it’s more than just being in it. If it gets soiled, getting out of it (doffing) can be a high risk procedure.
Addit – and of course you don’t know when it’s been soiled, so every doffing has to be as if.
Buce
You and the LNP can whine till the cows come home. It’s not going to change EU and US policy. Followed by a lot of countries. With China having full justification by the West to impose tariffs on carbon exports.
“…and the State Of Origin debacle …”
**raises eyebrow**
“Should we start applying tarrifs for countries that don’t have the same HESQ standards as us and are therefore cheaper?”
That’s not the worst suggestion you have ever made, but the point of the EU tariffs is that CO2 emissions are a global externality.
Buce
That’s correct, roughly speaking. The point is to reduce the frequency or intensity of interventions in response to outbreaks. In the best case, outbreaks would peter out by themselves without intervention. Are people getting ahead of themselves? I guess we’ll have to wait and see. Hopefully not. Who wants lockdowns forever? (or even at all)
Charlotte Goodlet
@cgoodlet
·
5m
#BREAKING An anaesthetist who worked at Campbelltown AND Liverpool Hospitals has tested positive to Covid. Contacts are still being identified. 60 close contacts have been linked to the patient who previously tested positive at Liverpool Hospital
@10NewsFirstSyd
Expect to be in lockdown come November?
… well, for some.
ScoMo would be a Blues supporter.
“…and the State Of Origin debacle …”
__________
that actually went ahead? with a crowd?
My son the Disability Worker was taught Donning and Doffing in case he had to work in an Aged Care Home with a Covid outbreak. He said Doffing properly was the hardest thing he has ever had to do and do it right every time.
The infection reports leaking from NSW this afternoon sound ominous. Does NSW have the ticker to do the lockdown properly?
Positive anaesthetist at Campbelltown and Liverpool Hospitals.
kezza2,
How is the Motor City coping?
Personally, I think the odds are still against Labor at the next election but I will admit they seem a bit better for them than they were just a couple of months ago.
guytaursays:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 7:44 pm
“With China having full justification by the West to impose tariffs on carbon exports.”
WTF? They are the biggest emitter.
BK @ #2883 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:51 pm
Short answer. No.
I’d say that’s because Golden Girl Gladys is getting plenty of pushback from Morrison and the Perrottet faction. She would if she could but she can’t so she won’t. Unless, and I’ll qualify my answer here, the case numbers become exponential. Then she’ll have no choice.
Itza,
I will send my son the Charles Laughton video. 🙂
Bucephalus @ #2870 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:39 pm
Don’t see why you’d take the WTO any more seriously than the UN.
They’re not a nation. They can’t make laws or set policy for the EU, Australia, or anywhere else. If they try to interfere with EU tariffs, the EU will just tell them to fuck off. And rightly so.
Just a reminder about the importance of QR checking out, which we’re not all that conscientious about.
OH just got a text about Bunnings Alexandria for 12.25-12.40 a week ago. He was there around 9.30 for 15 minutes, we were texting at the time, so confirmed. But anyone who, like him, didn’t sign out comes up on the alert list; there is no end point to the visit.
He tested neg yesterday as part of a just because testing.
La Tingle will NOT be popular when Cover Girl Leigh Sales returns to the Big Chair.
Tonight 7.30 has under Laura has dealt with COVID, Victoria, NSW, indigenous deaths in custody, and now Silicosis from handling Caesarstone.
This is an amazing throughput. An incredible news and current affairs productivity.
Contrast it against Leigh Sales going head-to-head in a fake gotcha to the death with a minister or a shadow, only to end with: ‘We’re out of time.”
“Thanks for having me, Leigh”.
(How about dinner for afters?)
I don’t recall Gladys constructing a back door to changing her advice on the lockdown or essential worker classification. So what is she going to do tomorrow when the numbers bounce up.. big time given tonights leaks on MSM , she sure as hell won’t be there saying ..sorry we got it wrong ^7 now we have to go the full monty .. gold standard turns to lead
My confident prediction of an October 16 early election has run into some turbulence.
The chances are shrinking (though planning hasn’t stopped) but May 2022 is firming, with a ramp up of legislative sandbagging to leave an incoming government with some scorched earth to deal with…
And watch out for Barnyard to go full banjo crackpot on Insiders. He needs to justify the faith placed in him…
Didn’t Glad say today, or it was reported somewhere, that she thought tomorrow’s figures would be over 100? After today’s figure of 65,
If so, so much for her claim that the outbreak is “under control”.
OTOH, why does the NSW count end at 8 pm?
It just seems designed to obscufate the real figures. And the tracing of the contacts.
How does that alleviate NSW’s and Vic’s concerns?
Again: Dan Andrews’ presser: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm0ctNeK6f8&ab_channel=ABCNews%28Australia%29
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 8:01 pm
My confident prediction of an October 16 early election has run into some turbulence.
______
That was never going to happen.
Itza,
Just loved the Miro Museum in Barcelona and another highlight was an amazing violin recital in St Chapelle in Paris, which sent chills down my spine.
Just stunning.
@DrEricLevi tweets
We do not have a vaccine hesitancy problem.
We have a vaccine supply problem.
We have a vaccine information problem.
We have a vaccine communication problem.
We have a vaccine booking logistics problem.
Someone didn’t order it and others kept criticising it.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-nsw-and-victorian-covid-19-cases-and-exposure-sites-grow-masks-back-on-in-melbourne-20210715-p589uh.html
NSW Health has just released a long list of new alerts for venues visited by known cases of COVID-19.Anyone who attended the following locations at the times listed is a close contact and must immediately get tested and isolate for 14 days:
Fairfield, Star Sweet Patisserie on July 11 between 4.20pm and 4.30pm
Punchbowl, Chemist Warehouse on July 8 between 2.30pm and 3pm
Liverpool, Service NSW on July 12 between 10.10am and 10.25am
Punchbowl, McDonalds (drive through only), Canterbury Road on July 8 between 6am – 4pm
Health authorities have upgraded their advice for a previously announced venue. Anyone who attended Shell, in Hay, on the Sturt Highway on July 10 between 7.30am and 8am is now a close contact and must immediately get tested and isolate for 14 days.
—–
No where is safe…. WTF has Government done!