The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
On a uniform swing (Across each state) I get the follwing seats changing hands
QLD Longman ,Leichhardt,Dickson,Brisbane and possible Ryan.
WA: Swan, Hasluck, Pearce,
Vic: Chisholm
Excellent article on the media’s failings during NSW Covid outbreak. It identifies these questions need to be asked, and answered:
1. Who is defined as a close contact?
2. What work is NSW Health doing with business on ‘essential workers’?
3. What is ‘essential’ shopping?
4. How do we better share information?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-12/four-questions-for-nsw-as-its-covid-outbreak-intensifies/100284790
“Edge of space”-lite: 88 km altitude is above NASA’s 50 mile boundary, but below the Kármán line (100 km) – which Jeff Bezos and Blue Origin are aiming to beat.
Richard Branson flies to edge of space in Virgin Galactic passenger rocket plane
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/11/richard-branson-virgin-galactic-space
I reckon that this looks pretty good for the government. There’s nothing here that a promised tax cut won’t fix.
Just quickly before the day kicks off, here’s the punch line – Rudd suggesting to Pfizer that contracting for their emerging 2022 *booster* programme could be associated with bringing our contracted 2021 Pfizer supplies. Two birds, one stone.
This shows well and truly what a hapless lot of tossers Morrison and Hunt are.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2021/07/12/pfizer-vaccine-kevin-rudd-nsw-lockdown/?
Stuart @ #4 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 7:02 am
Women are less easily bought off though.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
An anxious Sean Kelly writes about the sense of déjà vu in Sydney as this wave of infections rolls on. He turns his attention to the federal government, saying, “Not everything that happens during a pandemic is the government’s fault – chance is an enormous factor. This would be a reasonable defence to recent failings if our Prime Minister had not been quite so keen for applause when things went well.” He concludes by saying that our leaders must now put into practice the lessons they have learned, stop trying to claim credit for success not yet delivered, put aside foolish, time-wasting arguments, and get us out of this as quickly as they can.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/deliver-us-from-the-delta-blues-20210711-p588q4.html
Gladys Berejiklian has conceded her government cannot predict when Sydney’s lockdown will end, prompting NSW and the Commonwealth to devise a new scheme to protect jobs, with an announcement as early as today.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/new-scheme-to-save-jobs-as-sydney-faces-long-lockdown-20210711-p588py.html
David Crowe reports that more financial support will flow within days to households suffering from extended lockdowns in a federal move to overhaul disaster payments and prepare for restrictions that run for weeks.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-money-to-flow-to-nsw-and-others-for-extended-lockdowns-20210711-p588qt.html
And he tells us that the federal government is being urged to use Australia’s friendship with the United States to secure supplies of the Pfizer vaccine instead of relying totally on Europe, which has so far shipped about 4.4 million doses to Australia.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-urged-to-use-its-friendship-with-the-united-states-to-secure-more-pfizer-vaccines-20210711-p588ne.html
Meanwhile, a letter has revealed how former prime minister Kevin Rudd held an intervention meeting with Pfizer to try and bring forward millions of doses as Australia’s rollout lagged.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2021/07/12/pfizer-vaccine-kevin-rudd-nsw-lockdown/
A “confronting” new TV ad showing graphic effects of the coronavirus has divided health experts, with even one of the architects of the infamous ‘Grim Reaper’ HIV/AIDS campaign saying it went too far.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/07/11/graphic-coronavirus-ad-australia/
Emma Dawson argues that Sydney needs another JobKeeper to survive this lockdown.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sydney-needs-another-jobkeeper-to-survive-this-lockdown-20210711-p588qq.html
The Sunday Age and The Sun-Herald have learnt there will be no move from phase one to phase two of the plan – which the government hopes to achieve by the end of 2021 – before the number of over-70s who are fully vaccinated has passed at least 75 per cent and probably higher. Currently, 72.9 per cent of people over 70 have had at least one jab.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/higher-vaccination-targets-for-older-aussies-before-nation-opens-up-20210708-p5883v.html
Claire Lehman argues that we should respect the decisions of conscientious vaccination objectors but the rest of us should not have to live under restrictions to protect them.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/the-ethical-dilemma-posed-by-vax-objectors/news-story/7077abd9e288e6f4b582cad923406aff
Victoria’s public health team has grown increasingly concerned about the deepening coronavirus crisis in NSW as daily case numbers in Sydney climbed to 77 yesterday, with the Delta variant running rampant. Hundreds of extra police are being deployed to the border with NSW.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/hundreds-of-police-mobilise-as-victoria-shuts-nsw-border-on-covid-outbreak-20210711-p588qo.html
Breaches of Australia’s quarantine system have substantially increased this year, with data showing there have been as many leaks recorded in the past three months as there were last year, explains Josh Nicholas.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2021/jul/12/inadequate-covid-breaches-on-the-rise-in-australias-hotel-quarantine
South Australia’s management of Covid-19 has been labelled “top of the class” compared to other states, with a new independent report revealing we have spent the least time in lockdown and recorded the most improved employment figures since the pandemic began.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/coronavirus/south-australias-management-of-covid19-pandemic-labelled-top-of-the-class-in-new-report/news-story/115395c18a018fa3c825e7cd27c3f887
Public trust in the government’s COVID response is slowly eroding. Mark Evans tells us how to get it back on track.
https://theconversation.com/public-trust-in-the-governments-covid-response-is-slowly-eroding-heres-how-to-get-it-back-on-track-163722
The AIMN’s RosemaryJ36 writes about politicians, pandemics and pork barrelling.
https://theaimn.com/politicians-pandemics-and-pork-barrelling/
Praise of the Australian Public Service for its COVID 19 efforts last year, and appearances of respecting its policy contribution, seem now to have disappeared. The PM’s disdain of the public service as a key institution in our democracy, shown in his response to the Thodey Report in December 2019 and his earlier disparaging of its policy advising role, are apparent again in his departmental secretary appointments last week, laments John Menadue. He certainly doesn’t like Kathryn Campbell’s appointment to head up DFAT!
https://johnmenadue.com/andrew-podger-respect-for-the-aps-did-not-last-long/
Ross Gittins says that we shouldn’t believe the boys who cry ‘interest rates to rise’.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/don-t-believe-the-boys-who-cry-interest-rates-to-rise-20210711-p588oa.html
Rachel Clun looks at plain packaging for cigarettes, ten years on.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-decade-on-from-plain-packaging-what-is-the-result-20210709-p588e7.html
Leading economists say an increase in the number of workers logging in from home is unlikely to harm the nation’s productivity, while also delivering a big overall boost to happiness.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/slacking-off-working-from-home-the-productivity-tsar-doesn-t-think-so-20210709-p588er.html
And Emma Koehn and Jess Irvine write that the era of working five days per week in the office looks to be all but over in Australia, with the nation’s biggest employers saying hybrid work models will be entrenched even after the danger of the coronavirus pandemic has passed.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-five-day-office-week-is-dead-long-live-the-hybrid-model-says-productivity-boss-20210706-p587d4.html
The University of Melbourne’s Ian Martin McDonald explains its estimates of suggesting we can get Australia’s unemployment down to 3.3%.
https://theconversation.com/our-estimates-suggest-we-can-get-australias-unemployment-down-to-3-3-161900
A surge in domestic violence cases during the coronavirus pandemic has prompted calls for the federal government to pour billions of dollars into social housing to close a shortfall of almost 17,000 homes for women fleeing abuse, writes Jennifer Duke.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-urged-to-build-17-000-homes-for-dv-victims-to-fix-shocking-situation-20210708-p5880j.html
The federal government should not be doing “illiberal things” like stopping the ACT and Northern Territory from making their own laws on euthanasia, a Coalition backbencher has said. NSW Senator Andrew Bragg has weighed in on the fresh debate over territory rights and voluntary assisted dying, which has been sparked by a new push to restore the NT’s right to legislate on euthanasia.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7331459/we-shouldnt-be-doing-illiberal-things-coalition-senator-backs-acts-euthanasia-rights/?cs=14329
Jenny Wiggins reports that the competition watchdog will closely scrutinise a $22 billion takeover plan for Australia’s biggest airport, including who would make decisions if a consortium assumes control.
https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/accc-to-cast-eagle-eye-over-sydney-airport-bid-20210709-p588hb
NDIS independent assessments are off the table for now. That’s a good thing — the evidence wasn’t there says this contribution to The Conversation.
https://theconversation.com/ndis-independent-assessments-are-off-the-table-for-now-thats-a-good-thing-the-evidence-wasnt-there-164163
Barnaby Joyce’s blue-collar populism risks undermining the opportunity for agriculture and farmers to profit from the shift to a much lower-carbon economy, declares the editorial in the AFR.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/nationals-climate-populism-repeats-history-20210708-p587vv
Fran Baum and Michael McGreevy explain South Australia’s impressive renewable energy transition.
https://johnmenadue.com/south-australias-impressive-renewable-energy-transition/
With Queen Elizabeth’s reign nearing its end, the Australian Republic Movement is working on a new model to unite Australia in becoming a republic, writes Glenn Davies.
https://independentaustralia.net/australia/australia-display/australian-republic-movement-on-track-for-reform,15270
Countries across southern Europe are rushing to reimpose COVID restrictions amid concern at rapidly rising cases of the delta variant. Although deaths and hospitalisations remain low across Europe, a new wave of infections is unnerving governments and creating rifts across the continent.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/false-dawn-europe-rushes-to-reimpose-covid-rules-as-variant-cases-leap-20210711-p588ns.html
Boris Johnson is no Machiavelli: his ruthless streak serves only himself, opines William Keegan.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/11/johnson-is-no-machiavelli-his-ruthless-streak-serves-only-himself
“Arseholes of the Week” nomination goes to this aged care business operated by two former bankrupt brothers convicted of appalling animal cruelty who hasve failed to return deposits to the families of former residents, raising serious concerns about the firm’s future.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/chicken-killing-brothers-fail-to-refund-bonds-from-aged-care-homes-20210711-p588pd.html
A rather paltry Cartoon Corner
Matt Golding
Peter Broelman
Michael Leunig
Glen Le Lievre
Johannes Leak
I still don’t get why Tradies building new houses that no one is living in yet (because that means the new residents are presently in another house), are on the ‘Essential Worker’ list? They come from all over to build houses and I’m guessing some of them from over 10km away.
C@t:
I guess the homeowners would consider finishing their new home ‘essential work’.
Seeing as they’re working on an empty site it shouldn’t be a problem so long as there are protections in place on site to prevent transmission.
Thanks as usual BK; no intention to preempt on my part, just still gobsmacked at how the Pfizer story is playing out.
What I don’t understand is how the close contacts of an identified close contact aren’t officially designated close contacts.
It seems bizarre to me that someone living in the same house as a close contact can be deemed a casual contact (or not even a casual or close contact).
How does that work?
Frankenstein’s monstera: how popular indoor plants go rogue in the bush
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/jul/12/frankensteins-monstera-how-popular-indoor-plants-go-rogue-in-the-bush
ItzaDream @ #5 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 7:10 am
Kevin Rudd for Governor General in the next Labor government!
Confessions @ #9 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 7:20 am
… I don’t think. 🙂
Though I understand how they work in the fresh air all day and that would likely be a protection, it’s just that they come from all over the place that worries me. Though we have had no infections up here, so there’s that in their favour.
Top rightwing Brazil newspaper demands removal of Bolsonaro
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/11/top-brazil-newspaper-demands-removal-of-jair-bolsonaro
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/new-scheme-to-save-jobs-as-sydney-faces-long-lockdown-20210711-p588py.html
Premier Gladys Berejiklian has conceded her government cannot predict when Sydney’s lockdown will end, prompting NSW and the Commonwealth to devise a new scheme to protect jobs, with an announcement as early as Monday.
NSW is bracing for at least 100 new COVID-19 cases on Monday and the state recorded its first COVID death this year as daily case numbers in Sydney climbed to 77 on Sunday – including 33 believed to have been infectious while in the community.
Weak as piss, Glady!
England played very well until the 2nd minute.
Jaeger @ #15 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 7:28 am
This doesn’t sound good:
Military Juntas seem to be the flavour of the moment.
C@t:
There’s a large building site near where I’m staying. My room overlooks where the staff gather each morning for their onsite meetings, and I’ve been shocked to see only a few of them wearing masks when they attend these meetings and no physical distancing.
I don’t know which company it is, but given it’s a commercial build and therefore a large company, I’d reckon their OSH advisors would be having kittens if they saw that.
Looks like Italy in Euro
Italy win against England. Lygon street going off.
How long til Gladys nemesis Victor Dominello , starts to raise his head and gets the public spotlight again.
The old bill will be busy tonight.
Victoria @ #22 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 8:02 am
And Norton Street in Leichardt too. 🙂
There is no doubt that Dominello is one of the main ministers Morrison is talking to behind Gladys back
Italy win against England. Lygon street going off.
—————
Norton Street?
Sean kelly and his insider perspective is always interesting to note:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/deliver-us-from-the-delta-blues-20210711-p588q4.html
You get the feeling that there is a bunch of carpetbaggers roaming the world, selling “Election Fraud” kits cheap out of the back of a van to any would-be fascists who’ll buy them.
It happened with Tobacco and Climate Change, and now the latest right-wing craze is non-existent Dodgy Elections.
I noticed the other day someone is trying to get Voter ID up here as an issue. Was it Bukey Boy?
Simon Katich @ #27 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 8:07 am
It will have to be muted though along Norton Street. 🙂
Hmm. Albanese has Italian heritage and Morrison has English heritage. Could this be a sign? 😉
We have one in the driveway that’s grown a metre in three months. You chop it back near the roots, but that only seems to encourage the bloody thing.
It’s like The Blob from science fiction days of yore: “Don’t shoot! It feeds on energy!”
”
Jaegersays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 8:01 am
Anthony Albanese @AlboMP
Viva Italia ⚽️#Euro2020
”
Touché
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 8:09 am
Simon Katich @ #27 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 8:07 am
Italy win against England. Lygon street going off.
—————
Norton Street?
It will have to be muted though along Norton Street.
”
Remember Lockdown. 🙂
Remember Lockdown.
——————
Essential celebrations?
On occasions I have mild asthma. I am finding that the covid advert triggers a feeling of panic and impending breathlessness. I’m hoping I can avoid watching in future.
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 8:08 am
Sean kelly and his insider perspective is always interesting to note:
There is deja vu in the government’s habit of re-announcing vaccine packages, or at least stumbling in its overeagerness to claim too much. I wrote about this back in February – now here we are again. Last week, we seemed to have more Pfizer doses, then we didn’t – confusion that was easily avoidable if the government had just been straight with us. If Scott Morrison deserves credit for Pfizer doses that might or might not have been expedited then surely it is also true he should be blamed for all the doses we definitely don’t have.
One indication of how long we have been at this is that we are now into the second round of the vaccine blame game. Back in March, the Minister for Tourism, Dan Tehan, said, “Our biggest issue with the vaccines at the moment is to make sure that the states and territories roll out the supply of the vaccines that they have.” Another minister, David Littleproud, said the states “just need to pull their finger out”.
This seems, in hindsight, like magical thinking too: a persistent belief on the part of the federal government that it could avoid being blamed for anything to do with this pandemic. It had largely managed the trick with aged care – why not vaccines too?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/deliver-us-from-the-delta-blues-20210711-p588q4.html
”
Was it Simon Birmingham who said about a month ago that we are at the end of the queue regarding vaccination?
Guardian updates:
28m ago
Barnaby Joyce says ‘it’s not the truth’ that Rudd helped secure early Pfizer doses
42m ago
Former prime minister Rudd met with Pfizer last month asking supplies be brought forward
”
Simon Katichsays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 8:18 am
Remember Lockdown.
——————
Essential celebrations?
”
The match was not broadcasted either on SBS or Fox. How did people in Melbourne saw it in pubs and on big screens outside?
Victoria records no new COVID-19 cases as new border restrictions begin
Victoria has recorded no new COVID-19 cases after the effective closure of the border with New South Wales and the ACT came into effect last night.
There were 19,239 test results received yesterday, and 12,005 doses of vaccine were administered at state-run sites.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-12/victoria-records-no-new-covid-cases-as-border-restrictions-begin/100285562
Amazing the penalty kick success rate was 50%.
Lol Malcolm Turnbull on the attack against Morrison and his cronies
Malcolm Turnbull
@TurnbullMalcolm
Thank you
@MrKRudd
for speaking to the Chairman of Pfizer to secure an earlier delivery of vaccines. Staggered the vaccination of Australians was apparently not important enough to warrant a call from
@ScottMorrisonMP
or
@GregHuntMP
to the Pfizer boss.
————-
Morrison should resign or go to the Governor General, for the election date
PhoenixRed
Sundaya are always low for testing figures.
Hopefully we get above 20,000 tests tmrw.
”
Simon Katichsays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 8:18 am
Remember Lockdown.
——————
Essential celebrations?
”
Victor Dominello should ask Premier to classify celebration as essential for Leichhardt people mental health. 🙂
Rudd approaches Pfizer.
Morrison really deserves the moniker. Liar from the shire. He is the worst.
Optus showed it free on their platform and YouTube I think.
”
Jaegersays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 7:01 am
“Edge of space”-lite: 88 km altitude is above NASA’s 50 mile boundary, but below the Kármán line (100 km) – which Jeff Bezos and Blue Origin are aiming to beat.
Richard Branson flies to edge of space in Virgin Galactic passenger rocket plane
Spaceplane went into sub-orbital flight days ahead of a rival launch by Jeff Bezos
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/11/richard-branson-virgin-galactic-space
”
Can I say that I am happy that Branson beat Bezos.
John Hewson
@JohnRHewson
Think about priorities- how many Pfizer and other vaccine doses could have been tied up if the billions wasted on sport, car parks and a host of other rorts had been spent on vaccines? Morrison leads his Government, he should carry full responsibility for the choices made
Just saw footage on TV of Lygon Street going nuts! 😀