Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

Comments Page 59 of 62
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  1. Quasar @ #2898 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 8:06 pm

    Itza,
    Just loved the Miro Museum in Barcelona and another highlight was an amazing violin recital in St Chapelle in Paris, which sent chills down my spine.
    Just stunning.

    St Chapelle has to be one of the beautiful places on earth. I can’t imagine the impact of adding music to it.

  4. Recon @ #2897 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 8:04 pm

    sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 8:01 pm

    My confident prediction of an October 16 early election has run into some turbulence.
    ______
    That was never going to happen.

    If there starts to be internal pressure on Morrison’s leadership he might opt to go early in the hope that his God will help him

  5. I don’t think there will be another leadership change, even if the polls get worse for the government. One group are just happy that Abbott is gone, the other group are just happy that MT is gone. They will go quietly to the chopping block if that is their fate.

  6. C@t

    Hi there! Motown was a bit more sombre today. Masks everywhere, that I saw, although I have to say most peeps I spoke to thought that we’re pretty much okay, because of geography, i.e. apart from travellers from NSW down the east coast, we’re pretty much out of the way of NSW and SA. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be vigilant.

  7. Personally I think end of the year for an election (i.e. around mid-late November) is not off the cards.

    Really depends on what the state of things at the time is, of course.

    Then again, I also see strong validity in going “the full three years” and holding the next one in May 2022. Again, depends on what’s happening.

  11. A more probable scenario is Morrison resigning.
    Morrison has been consistent in securing financial advantages and encouraging others to push him.
    Don’t look at me, don’t look at me, I’ve not the reins!

  12. Talk of a late 2021 election has withered on the vine.
    The pumped up self praise of the NSW government and Morrison about “gold standards” have bitten the dust.
    The West newspaper, no friend of Federal Labor, recently hooted that Gladys had egg all over her face and mocked the advice she and Morrison gave WA not so long ago – that is, how to keep an economy open and yet beat the Covid monster…..
    Morrison will now make a virtue of the parliament going full term…..

  13. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 8:16 pm

    I know nath is back from his quickie Pea and Ham soup making,
    ___________
    C@t, I’ve had the hocks going since 2pm. It’s nearly ready. 🙂

  15. C@t

    Motown, my motown, is Moe (you know, MOE, moccasins on everyone, Victoria. The infamous Jayden Leskie town).

    Nowhere near Geelong, despite the fact I barrack for them, AFL-wise.

  16. Now, there’s a conspiracy theory that I didn’t see coming out of left field.

    Apparently, according to True Crime Weekly’s, Serkan Ozturk, Scott Morrison’s disappearance from public view was due to the fact that he came back with a case of the Delta Variant from the G7 in the UK! He may have even helped the spread around Sydney! So there you go. 🙂

  19. Recon says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 8:23 pm
    that is excellent news Lars. That NZ figure looks very low.
    ____________________________________
    It is, I hope it reassures some of our anxious elder folk on PB19 too!

  20. Mavis says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 8:24 pm

    This match exemplifies how tennis has changed in 40 years, why Hingis later said the William sisters played like men:
    __________
    Bah! Didn’t they say the same thing about Navratilova?

  21. Once again, it looks like I’m going to have one of the longest commutes of anyone in Victoria….I’m apparently still allowed to travel the 95k to teach in NSW…

    At least the roads will be clear.

  22. From 9fax blog, the Liberal Government gross failure in quarantine and vaccination crippling our major cities..

    Melbourne

    A person with COVID-19 attended the France versus Wallabies rugby union match at AAMI Park on Tuesday night.

    A company email seen by The Age and The Herald confirmed the case on Thursday night. The message said AAMI was working closely with contact-tracing teams to identify primary and secondary close contacts.

    Sydney

    A cleaner at a western Sydney aged care home has tested positive to COVID-19, resulting in the facility being locked down until further notice.

    Minchinbury Manor at Rooty Hill said in a statement they were informed by NSW Health that a contract cleaner who had worked at the facility had tested positive.

  23. @dwnews tweets

    JUST IN: The European Commission has launched legal action against Hungary and Poland over “violations of fundamental rights” of LGBTQ people.

    More to follow on dw.com

  24. Dr Eric Feigl-Deng-
    “ CDC says #DeltaVariant surging—now dominant ~58% of #COVID19 cases in US.
    Two weeks ago—31%.
    6 weeks ago? Only 3%.
    Someone warned in May it would endanger the world. Someone warned it will overtake US.
    Yet CDC didn’t declare Delta a VOC until June 15th. #DeltaVariant is no joke—“
    ‘Let this sink in—
    “The peak of this epidemic would really be sometime around the end of September,” says @ScottGottliebMD. “Unfortunately the worst is yet to come”

  27. Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 8:20 pm

    Dodgy numbers, only 4 million doses given so far, 9.1 is the trend, misleading document.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2021/jul/14/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-australia-vaccination-rate-progress-how-many-people-vaccinated-percent-tracker-by-state-victoria-vic-nsw-queensland-qld-daily-live-data-stats-updates-total-number-world-ranking-distribution-schedule-tracking-chart-percentage-new-cases-today

    “Here, you can see the current rate of vaccination compared with the rate of doses we would have needed to meet the government’s goals for the early stages of the rollout, with the initial goal of 60,000 doses in the first week followed by 4m doses by the end of March. This assumes a linear rate of increase, but it’s quite likely the speed of vaccinations will ramp up as the rollout proceeds”

    New Zealand doesn’t have a crises like Australia does, idiot LVR.

    It’s nothing to be proud off.

  28. Recon at 8:23 pm

    that is excellent news Lars. That NZ figure looks very low.

    We are also really kicking Kiwi arse when it comes to infections . So infections and injections , what a double .

  29. Punchbowl, McDonalds (drive through only), Canterbury Road on July 8 between 6am – 4pm

    Is the source of infection the Maccas drive through worker? Surely not as that person would mix with other staff and is most unlikely to do a straight 10 hour shift.

    Or is the source of infection the environment at the drive through (e.g. droplets in the air)?

    Or something else?

    Or did Scotty from Bunnings pay a visit? Edit before/after his FM radio interview this morning?

  31. zerlo only 4m doses?

    If you look at page 2 – it is 9.6m doses administered.

    You’ll be pleased to know my 2 beloved great aunts are part of the 25637 , 95+ cohort who have been fully vaccinated.

  33. Remarkable that Zerlo makes more sense, being able to interpret data, than whoever is on shift with the LvT account tonight.

  35. Apparently, according to True Crime Weekly’s, Serkan Ozturk, Scott Morrison’s disappearance from public view was due to the fact that he came back with a case of the Delta Variant from the G7 in the UK! He may have even helped the spread around Sydney! So there you go.

    If people here didn’t block me, they’d have seen that I hypothesized exactly this as a scenario, about a week ago.

    If you block me, you just get to hear the news.

    If you don’t block me, you get to join the elite, in on the good oil, up there with The Gods in the phophesy stakes.

    Youse have been warned.

  38. Fyi, Bushfire, I don’t have you Blocked. I’ve just been too busy lately to read every post.

    Also, the reason I thought it apposite to post that about Morrison was that Andrew Marr, the journalist, also contracted the Delta Variant at the G7 and he too had been vaccinated with Pfizer. So I thought it was a credible theory about Morrison.

  42. Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 8:33 pm

    Complete rubbish LVR, more likely you need glasses.

    1,112,596 = NSW
    1,328,544 = VIC
    740,272 = QLD
    383,067 = WA
    135,589 = TAS
    300,065 = SA
    105,644 = ACT
    75,850 = NT

    = ~4,181,627

  43. Lars

    Good news!

    According to this update – we are ahead of the Kiwis on vaccination and about to overtake Canada!

    So good to see you thinking for yourself and not running the Coalition’s unicorn about NZ!

    Have you figured out the irony yet, in telling someone what they should think in order to demonstrate their independent thinking?

  44. Letter to the Editor of The Sydney Morning Herald:

    After seeing all the arms in the new government ad for vaccinations, I’m grateful we don’t receive the jab in the bum. Di Crozier, Milton

    😀

  45. BB

    If you don’t block me, you get to join the elite, in on the good oil, up there with The Gods in the phophesy stakes.

    That’d be Recon and Wayne :P.

  46. Zerlo says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 8:44 pm
    Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 8:33 pm

    Complete rubbish LVR, more likely you need glasses.
    ________________________________
    Zerlo , You do know the Federal and State governments are administering and reporting vaccination?

  50. Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 8:49 pm
    PBAnon charges on.

    When are you rioting?
    _____________________
    The real question is – who will be the vegan dietary requirement Shaman?

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