Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Labor edges back into the lead on two-party preferred, but very little change overall from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor returning to a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred after a tied result last time, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). Changes on leadership ratings are likewise very modest, with Scott Morrison up a point on approval to 55% and down two on disapproval to 41%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down two to 45%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is barely changed at 53-33, compared with 53-32 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1513.

UPDATE (29/6): The Australian has published further results from the poll relating to COVID-19, including a fourth go at the question of how the Prime Minister has handled the situation. This series records a pattern of decline since his debut result of 85% good and 14% poor in April last year, to a current showing of 61% good (down nine over the last two months) and 36% bad (up nine points). Satisfaction with the government’s handling of the vaccine rollout is down three to 50% compared with two months ago, with dissatisfied up three to 46%. A new question on whether Labor would have done better turns up a neutral result, with 25% saying better, 36% no difference and 27% worse.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,469 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Good Morning Dawn Patrollers – nope that’s not my tag, that’s somebody else who does a fantastic job each and every day 🙂

    Here are the UK Cartoons:









    Peter Schrank on #jurgenconings a Belgian soldier who went awol with a whole lot of lethal weapons #renemagritte #Belgium








    The original that Dave Brown was modelling his work on.

  2. Ouch! Sean Kelly:

    On Saturday, when the Sydney lockdown was announced, Morrison – so proud of his Sydneysider status – was largely absent. As a friend pointed out to me, what better day for the Prime Minister to remind people of the importance of vaccinations? But Morrison was stuck, because that might have carried the implication that a better vaccination program could have helped avoid situations like this. (We got a YouTube message from him eventually – but vaccinations weren’t mentioned.)

    It’s starting to look like The Artful Political Dodger is getting stuck in quicksand.

  4. Shorter Frydenberg this morning:

    We’re pumping out the vaccine and everything that goes wrong is the fault of unvaccinated people.

    Tough luck about AstraZeneca being useless for most people.

    The National Security Committee will meet and be told by the CMO what everybody in Australia already knows about the Delta variant and how bad it is.

    (ABC updates)

  6. Dr Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    Jun 27
    Addendum: People with confirmed prior covid and 1-dose vaccination are as, and likely more, protected than 2-dose vaccination. See hybrid immunity, by
    @profshanecrotty
    Hybrid immunity
    Why does 1-dose vaccination add immune protection for people w/ prior covid? Like 25-100X higher antibody response, along w/ B & T cell response
    @profshanecrotty
    explains in today’s
    @ScienceMagazine

    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6549/1392
    also plays a role in mix-and-match vaxx

  8. Testing numbers can be a little deceiving. There will be a lot of people undergoing numerous mandatory tests because they returned from hotspots.

    So yes. Definitely more testing.

  9. mundo @ #107 Monday, June 28th, 2021 – 8:31 am

    Anyone seen or heard anything from Jim Chalmers lately?

    Why ask that question today, before he is likely to be in the media AFTER the release of the Intergenerational Report? It just comes across as mischief making.

    No doubt the truth is he’s probably been holed up reading his copy of The Intergenerational report and preparing his response.

    But the truth isn’t as sexy as a glib one-liner, is it mundo?

  10. Another same/same poll might be the last in this series given all the action on COVID lockdown has happened since Friday.

    The next lockdown polls may see voters expressing their ire at whom they think has let them down.

    The tight polls as reported don’t emphasise that according to Bludgertrack Labor’s TPP has improved 2.9% since the last Federal Election and that Labor’s progress has been steady throughout.

    This may be showing that LaborS position has been steadily improving despite the MSM fixation on popularity metrics and the chicken little posters at PB telling us all that the sky is falling on Labor.

  13. @julia16815
    ·
    18m
    Fran Kelly equating pink batts with the catastrophic #VaccineStrollout and quarantine neglect WTF!

  16. Anyone seen or heard anything from Jim Chalmers lately?
    _____________________________________
    Didn’t he make a speech?

  17. BK and Alpha Zero, thank you.

    Re the Belgian soldier, it is remarkable how often that particular Magritte is looted/repurposed in cartooning… less than the scream but quite common nevertheless

  18. The Chaser
    @chaser

    As the UK’s health minister gets stood down for cheating on his wife, Australian politicians express confusion why they didn’t just promote him to deputy PM

    😀

  19. From sceptic’s post last night on the chequered history of the AZ vaccine, this jumped out:

    “AstraZeneca isn’t really known as a vaccine specialist company,” said Dr Penny Ward, a visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at King’s College London, who has spent a lifetime in the industry. “Also, not long before, they had shut down their entire anti-infectives division.” That meant AstraZeneca had hardly any involvement with infectious diseases.

    A deal had been expected with the German giant Merck, which has a huge vaccine division, but the British health secretary, Matt Hancock, is said to have torpedoed it because there was no guarantee that the UK would get priority once doses were available.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/26/the-oxford-vaccine-the-trials-and-tribulations-of-a-world-saving-jab

    Matt Hancock! The complete dickhead who has just resigned after his snogging his affair was caught on CCTV. (And the vengeance squad is out in full force looking for the source of the leaked photo). Of Mr Hancock, the buffoon Mr Johnson has this to say:

    Mr Johnson said he was sorry to receive Mr Hancock’s resignation, and that he should be “immensely proud” of his service.

    having previously allegedly said he was “hopeless”, and of course it takes one to know one.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/uk-health-minister-matt-hancock-resigns-after-breaching-covid-rules-by-kissing-aide-in-cctv-photo

    These infantile people should not be running a school tuck shop, let alone a country.

  20. Frytheplanet still Gaslighting the public.. trying to blame the driver

    Oh no! The federal government is being asked if NSW is still the “gold standard” of the Covid-19 response!

    But it looks like Frydenberg, at least, isn’t ready to sell their favourite state government down the river just yet.

    He is speaking to ABC news breakfast now:

    Well, they have been very successful to date, obviously, in dealing with outbreaks …

    I think they’d be the first to admit that those workers should have taken further precautions. And these are the issues that will be discussed not just by the AHPPC but also by state, territory …

  22. ”The World Health Organization is urging even fully vaccinated people to “play it safe” by continuing to wear masks, maintain social distance and practise other safety measures, to deal with the Delta variant.”

    Makes sense. From what I’m seeing, you are less vulnerable to serious illness if you are vaccinated but could still spread the disease. I’ll keep up some safety measures after Covid – the hand-washing, hand sanitiser, cough etiquette. Also avoid crowds (which I do normally), masks on public transport (protects against normal flu).

  24. Lisa Millar
    @LisaMillar
    ·
    1h
    Treasurer @JoshFrydenberg tells @BreakfastNews ‘this is a critical time because we’re dealing with new Delta strain’. Re vaccines, he says anyone who is eligible should be rushing out to get their dose

    Can he understand what he’s saying? Rush where?

  26. Amy Remeikis
    @AmyRemeikis
    ·
    46m
    There was no reason for any of this reshuffle, other than score settling and rewarding those who got him there. Entirely transactional. No accountability. This isn’t even pretending to be ‘merit’ – hope those 11 MPs feel great about all they’ve done to return him

    Katharine Murphy
    @murpharoo
    Good morning, you’ve reached transaction central, how can I help you? #auspol ⁦
    @AmyRemeikis
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/27/barnaby-joyce-shifts-old-foes-and-rewards-bridget-mckenzie-and-andrew-gee-in-nationals-ministerial-reshuffle

  27. mundo
    “Anyone seen or heard anything from Jim Chalmers lately?

    Yes, he said you’re an idiot. He says your perpetual whining is a drag on the Labor movement. He said those exact sentiments, really he did.

  28. jeremy andrews
    @plainte
    The suggestion on @abcnews that if D.Andrews had released more detail about his fall it might have prevented the vile stories is silly & again deliberately ignoring the orchestrated campaign against him. It was announced at the time that he fell on wet steps – as the video says.

  30. The Shovel
    @TheShovel
    ·
    3m

    FULL DETAILS: “Sydney’s lockdown area will be extended to include the outer suburbs of Perth, Darwin and Brisbane”

  31. lizzie @ #81 Monday, June 28th, 2021 – 9:06 am

    jeremy andrews
    @plainte
    The suggestion on @abcnews that if D.Andrews had released more detail about his fall it might have prevented the vile stories is silly & again deliberately ignoring the orchestrated campaign against him. It was announced at the time that he fell on wet steps – as the video says.

    It’s a Labor thing.
    Ignore it and it’ll go away.

  32. marquelawyers
    @marquelawyers

    Level 1:
    Andrew Laming is suing for defamation, a phrase which would have seemed far-fetched not long ago but is now barely worth a passing mention. Because, these days, that’s what they do.

    Mick Minion fighting Government Corruption
    ·
    2m
    Level 2:
    Laming should be counter sued for malicious prosecution. Well, let’s see what all the witnesses have to say about Laming’s character in open court.

  33. Kakuru @ #80 Monday, June 28th, 2021 – 9:06 am

    mundo
    “Anyone seen or heard anything from Jim Chalmers lately?

    Yes, he said you’re an idiot. He says your perpetual whining is a drag on the Labor movement. He said those exact sentiments, really he did.

    Not sure how asking if anyone has seen or heard anything from Jim Chalmers is whining but there you go.
    Next time you’re chatting with him give him my best and tell him I’m very much looking forward to him leading the party out of the wilderness and laying low is a good strategy.

  35. I see that when the Morrison/Berejiklian Cock up is wrecking the country Mundo the Liberal sniper is doing Chalmers the Unicorn meme today.
    How boringly broken record.

  36. lizzie @ #77 Monday, June 28th, 2021 – 9:01 am

    Lisa Millar
    @LisaMillar
    ·
    1h
    Treasurer @JoshFrydenberg tells @BreakfastNews ‘this is a critical time because we’re dealing with new Delta strain’. Re vaccines, he says anyone who is eligible should be rushing out to get their dose

    Can he understand what he’s saying? Rush where?

    Of course that was Millar’s follow up question….

  38. mundo @ #137 Monday, June 28th, 2021 – 9:18 am

    lizzie @ #77 Monday, June 28th, 2021 – 9:01 am

    Lisa Millar
    @LisaMillar
    ·
    1h
    Treasurer @JoshFrydenberg tells @BreakfastNews ‘this is a critical time because we’re dealing with new Delta strain’. Re vaccines, he says anyone who is eligible should be rushing out to get their dose

    Can he understand what he’s saying? Rush where?

    Of course that was Millar’s follow up question….

    To get what vaccine? The Pfizer is pitifully undersupplied and the AZ is going to be dumped in October because people are shy of it.

  40. More confirmation just surfaced tonight that Trump Organization criminal indictments are imminent – Bill Palmer

    This past week the New York Times reported that criminal indictments against Allen Weisselberg and the Trump Organization could come down as soon as this upcoming week

    Now there’s additional confirmation that indictments really are imminent.

    The Washington Post just reported that New York prosecutors have given the Trump Organization until tomorrow to make the case that it shouldn’t be criminally indicted. Of course there’s no way for the Trump Organization to make this case, given the evidence in hand, so this deadline is really just a formality.

    This means that once the deadline passes, whether it’s end of business tomorrow or midnight tomorrow, criminal indictments will indeed be imminent.

    https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/more-confirmation-just-surfaced-tonight-that-trump-organization-criminal-indictments-are-imminent/39800/

  43. boerwar @ #88 Monday, June 28th, 2021 – 9:17 am

    I see that when the Morrison/Berejiklian Cock up is wrecking the country Mundo the Liberal sniper is doing Chalmers the Unicorn meme today.
    How boringly broken record.

    Borewar the broken record doing his usual dumb arse anti Mundo meme…….anyone expressing even the slightest trepidation in relation to Labor’s chances is a Liberal Sniper.
    Once again, for the record I’m a Labor/Green voter.
    A former Labor member.
    A current Labor donor.
    Your comments tell me you a an absolutely crap as fuck judge of a persons politics.
    In short, you’re a deadshit.

  44. Thanks for the roundup BK. With border closures affecting five states, partial lockdowns affecting two states, and contact tracing going on in four states, will Gladys Berejiklian be expecting invoices from other states for the cost the NSW covid outbreak is costing them?

    Who can forget Gladys’ “invoice them” lines from late 2020?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-hotel-quarantine-cost-to-hit-140-million-premier-calls-on-other-states-to-pay-up-20201028-p569cz.html

  46. ”
    Scottsays:
    Monday, June 28, 2021 at 2:08 am
    If Labor can keep within 7% of the lib/nats combined primary vote, change of government will happen
    ”

    You keep plucking numbers out of thin air to back up your argument.

  47. Spot on comment under the Shane Wright, Intergenerational Report, article today:

    Tuppy

    See this is what they do. Refuses to reform franking credit refunds, negative gearing or concessional CGT. Hands out tax cuts to the upper end.

    Then says we “will have to be confronted with future spending reforms” ie cuts to services.

    No Joshy there is another way if you’re prepared to ditch your extremely ideological path.

    Voters need to kick them out.

  48. Not mask wearing is a major demerit in the NSW Govt’s slack public health messaging, way back before the Delta strain arrived, entirely predictably. That’s what viruses do. Virus Behaviour 101.

    It’s only the last week that Gladys and Hazzard have deigned to be seen in public wearing a mask, and handling them badly at that. And as for stupid, the Premier finds her favourite most flattering photo and self indulgently posts it last night on social media, replete with its no mask/no social distancing for me today message, regardless of when the bloody thing was taken.

    We are apes. We ape. The bad example comes from our very stupid misnamed leaders.

  49. Did you know that if Matt Hancock married his mistress, she would have the same name as Gina Rinehart’s maiden name! How about that!

    Hope you all had a chuckle in these grim times.

  50. ”
    Cud Chewersays:
    Monday, June 28, 2021 at 6:53 am
    poroti

    You’re forgetting hubris, stupidity, vested interest and voter attention spans.

    Meaning, once the election is over, Scomo knows anything he does will be forgotten by the next election. Plus, he’ll be lobbied by vested interests. Plus he’s too up himself and too stupid to realise when he’s taking too big of a risk.

    And yes, he’s surrounded by idiots like Brendan and Collignon who will be telling him there’s “relatively safe” ways to weaken the border.
    ”

    Below is what expatriate Aussies are thinking about people who want to Australia from rest of the world.

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/when-i-look-at-australia-from-the-us-i-see-an-insular-nation-that-has-turned-its-back-on-its-own?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16248267188485&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fcommentisfree%2F2021%2Fjun%2F27%2Fwhen-i-look-at-australia-from-the-us-i-see-an-insular-nation-that-has-turned-its-back-on-its-own

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