Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Labor edges back into the lead on two-party preferred, but very little change overall from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor returning to a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred after a tied result last time, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). Changes on leadership ratings are likewise very modest, with Scott Morrison up a point on approval to 55% and down two on disapproval to 41%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down two to 45%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is barely changed at 53-33, compared with 53-32 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1513.

UPDATE (29/6): The Australian has published further results from the poll relating to COVID-19, including a fourth go at the question of how the Prime Minister has handled the situation. This series records a pattern of decline since his debut result of 85% good and 14% poor in April last year, to a current showing of 61% good (down nine over the last two months) and 36% bad (up nine points). Satisfaction with the government’s handling of the vaccine rollout is down three to 50% compared with two months ago, with dissatisfied up three to 46%. A new question on whether Labor would have done better turns up a neutral result, with 25% saying better, 36% no difference and 27% worse.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,469 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Pretty much a status quo Newspoll, but I’m not really surprised. Was saying to my wife earlier that I wish it wasn’t coming out for another week.

  2. Will all the other poll defy the error margin one would expect for the poll sizes and and move in unison to 51%.

  3. Even though Morrison has given away Billions of taxpayers money to profitable companies Voters are seeing Morrisons incompetence in the vaccine rollout and his failure to build quarantine facilities and are deciding that the dysfunctional divided COALition dosnt derserve a fourth term ingovernment.

  4. The margin of error for this poll is about 2.6%. Depending upon the sample size, the margin of error in the 2PP and major party primaries for these polls is generally between about 1.8% and 3%. The percentages of published polls should be jumping around more.

  5. The herding!

    But I agree that it’s troubling.

    My gut feeling is if the Government wins, it will be by the absolute skin of its teeth. There’s no data out there suggesting that the Feds have gained the same kind of incumbent boost that we saw in the state elections in WA, Qld and TAS. If I was to wager my own money, I would think Labor would be a very very slight favourite at this stage. And after the 2019 shock that we really should have seen coming… I’ve been extremely wary of any kind of prediction.

  6. Matt 31
    I see your point but isn’t this the end stage of the natural progression of the state from apartheid to democracy.
    I can’t see Unionism reversing this at this late stage.
    The language bill could be a win for both sides;I didn’t realise I was bilingual until they added Scots to the bill

    I love this view of the place of Gaelic in the republic- it is a symbol and nothing else

  7. “Coalition firm despite vaccine stumbles” = they’re behind guys, still. One of the very few governments worldwide behind in polling during the pandemic.

  8. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 9:55 pm

    The margin of error for this poll is about 2.6%. Depending upon the sample size, the margin of error in the 2PP and major party primaries for these polls is generally between about 1.8% and 3%. The percentages of published polls should be jumping around more.


    Published polls all coming in the same values leads to the questions. What in the hell is the real poll position? How far are they going to be out next election?

    I wish someone would publish some real poll results. This is bullshit.

  9. They’re further ahead than they were last time…. and they won then.

    Scotty will go to the GG shortly for an early sept election depending on the outcome of the current lockdown in NSW.

    Labor have to go hard & negative to win. Hammer the corruption & incompetence if they’re to win.

  10. Better Origin tonight but the 26-0 to the Blues says it all. The Maroons were unlucky not to score but the Blue’s defence once again made the difference.
    Bit of a worry that there were no evident C.19 precautions, though I’m sure Palaszczuk and Young knew what they were doing.


    Good to see Labor’s primary vote up one and that the 2PP is up from the last Newspoll. I wonder what it will look like in three weeks hence?

  11. Matt31says:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 9:52 pm
    Pretty much a status quo Newspoll, but I’m not really surprised. Was saying to my wife earlier that I wish it wasn’t coming out for another week.
    Laming effect kicked in yet or is it another week away as well ?

  12. I need to remind everyone that before the 2019 election the Coalition had polling which was vastly different to the public polling. It showed them ahead and on track for the win they got. So no one who supports Labor should be lulled into a false sense of security over public polls ever again!

  13. That’s the point. My argument since 2019 was if you took the polling out of the equation, based purely on how we know the public reacts to reform-minded opposition campaigns, we should have known Labor was up to its neck in merde.

    I don’t think you should believe public polling, especially since polling is reflective, not predictive.

    Trust your gut, trust the vibe.

  14. Well done NSW. This is a very good NSW team but sadly the QLD team is pretty weak for this level of football. Also the QLD spirit is lacking at present probably because it is not something that can be trained into you. You have to feel it and want it.
    A series loss or two or three will ignite it but not just yet.
    The Blues lost a lot of series in a row and now it’s our turn. 🙁

  15. ANOTHER 18 Covid venues added by NSW health at 10pm… out of control!

    Thank you “I wouldn’t change anything” Gladys … again , what was the longest lockdown period in Victoria again?

  16. Margin of error is normally the 90% confidence interval, with confidence tending to run on something approximating a bell curve. It’s entirely normal for polls to tend towards a single, median figure. A margin of error of 2.6% does not mean that polls should be expected to bounce around +/-2.6%.

    And there’s nothing whatsoever suspicious about polls to clustering around the 50% mark, which is typically not that far from what happens on election day, given that even something like a TPP of 54%/46% is in practical terms a landslide so we’re mostly playing with maybe only 4 percentage points or so at the best of times.

    About the best you can take away from such things is which side of 50% your preferred party is currently sitting on, which is about all that any typical poll is worth anyhow, but either way if polls are doing their job properly they should indeed all be within a percentage or two of each other, with only a rare outlier.

  17. The Australian 27/06
    Dan Andrews has ditched The Age for his comeback interview, after the paper refused to allow former ABC broadcaster Jon Faine to conduct it.
    Well that puts Jon Faine’s latest piece on the NSW / Vic comparison into perspective.
    You can read all about the Andrews injury and his recovery in the Herald Sun. Good to see Ted Bailleu reach out to him after suffering a similiar injury.

  18. Governments tend to be unpopular mid-term. If an actual election were to be called, many waverers will move back to their default position – vote for who they’ve always voted for, vote for whoever offers the biggest tax cuts, vote for whoever Rupert tells them to.

    This is a status quo result.

  19. [‘It’s hard to believe it’s only five days since NSW’s COVID-19 response was called the “gold standard” and a full-on lockdown seemed unlikely.

    For a government that has made avoiding lockdowns a point of pride, the economic recovery evident in last week’s state budget allowed New South Wales to boast even more about its approach to the pandemic.

    “Gold standard testing, tracing, quarantine,” Treasurer Dominic Perrottet exclaimed while delivering his speech in parliament on Tuesday.

    And he pointed out that the NSW government had kept “our way of life more free” than other states.

    That was five days ago.

    A day after the budget, on Wednesday, the mood in the government had changed and tough restrictions came into force as the number of COVID cases linked to a Bondi cluster grew.

    Residents in seven local government areas in Sydney had their movements restricted and were effectively barred from entering Queensland, New Zealand, South Australia, Western Australia and Victoria.

    Yet some in the government — including Health Minister Brad Hazzard — were adamant there was no need to consider a lockdown.’]

    It’s very unfair that viruses fail to take heed of so-called gold standards of quarantine, testing & tracing – oh, and boasting. I think it’s more prudent to plan for the worst, hope for the best.

  20. There’s going to be increases until the lockdown starts to work – it’s only been 24 hours.

    It’ll be 3-4 days of increases at the very least.

  21. Tedesco, Mitchell (especially), and Trbojevic were stand-out players for the Blues tonight. Mitchell’s
    near-field-length intercept try was scintillating. For a big man, I thought he wouldn’t have the legs.

  22. The Age 27/06
    The ABC has pulled an interview between former radio broadcaster Jon Faine and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews just hours before it had planned to publish it online, saying it lacked editorial value in the wake of a social media video posted by the Premier on Sunday about his return to work.

    Faine interviewed the Premier last week and provided the ABC with an 1800-word written interview after The Age turned down the offer on the grounds that the government wanted to choose the interviewer. The Age had requested one of its own staff journalists conduct the interview but the government insisted on Faine, who is a columnist with The Sunday Age.

    The interview between Faine and Mr Andrews was also formally considered by the ABC’s editorial policy team before its planned publication on Monday – a step not routine for every article appearing online.
    Sources familiar with the process said the elevation of the article to the editorial policy team indicated the ABC wanted to ensure there were no conflicts of interest ahead of publication.

    Faine produced and directed a major public health campaign on behalf of the state government which appeared on television networks and social media last year. Before it was pulled, the article had been expected to run with a line at the bottom declaring Faine’s work with the government.

    ABC sources, who were not authorised to speak publicly, said staff had raised concerns internally about running Faine’s interview, given his work with the government.

    Age editor Gay Alcorn said while the masthead had great respect for Faine, who writes a weekly column for The Sunday Age, it could not acquiesce to the government deciding who could interview the Premier or government ministers. The Age had requested and had been promised a sit-down interview with the Premier since the second lockdown last year.

    “The Age is the most widely read masthead in Victoria and this was to be a significant interview as Mr Andrews returned to work. In my view it needed to be done by a senior staff journalist for The Age rather than a contributing columnist of the government’s choosing.

    “We suggested senior journalists who could have conducted the interview for The Age but were told that it would be Faine or nobody. We reluctantly declined the interview.”

    Faine, who retired from the ABC in 2019, has conducted interviews with Mr Andrews since he was a backbencher. Mr Andrews was a regular on Faine’s program and attended Faine’s farewell. The pair continued to talk during the Premier’s recovery.
    Well done to the editorial teams at the Age and the ABC.
    From now on bludgers, take anything from Faine in relation to the Andrews govt with a grain of salt.

  23. Wayne – ”That newspoll result is wrong it is our great LNP in the lead 51/49…”

    That would be within the margin of error.

  24. ”It’ll be 3-4 days of increases at the very least.”

    Likely a week or more. The next 7-10 days were locked in before Sydney was locked down.

  25. Matt31 @ #1 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 9:52 pm

    Pretty much a status quo Newspoll, but I’m not really surprised. Was saying to my wife earlier that I wish it wasn’t coming out for another week.

    Doesn’t matter if it comes out in another week or another month.
    The great Australian un-washed think Scummo is a bit of alright.
    The numbers won’t change.
    If anything, they’ll improve for the Scunt.
    Welcome to Straya.

  26. This poll isn’t that surprising because for most people the economy is going okay and there is no real love or hate for the federal government.

  27. Three C.19 cases now confirmed in Queensland, but not the delta strain; the less infectious alpha… One (a miner) had been in the community for a week.

  28. Taylormade says:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 10:57 pm

    Well done to the editorial teams at the Age and the ABC.
    I agree. Andrews has been far too ‘selective’ with who in the media he talks to. The treatment of Neil Mitchell was pretty poor I think. All because he wanted to ask some uncomfortable questions about ‘red shirts’. One good thing about Howard, probably the only good thing, was his willingness to take on hostile interviewers, and he usually dismissed them pretty easily. One thing he didn’t do was sook it up and refuse to appear.

  29. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 8:27 pm
    I didn’t know this about latrell Mitchell:

    Mitchell’s maternal great aunt is Evonne Goolagong Cawley.

    Talent in the blood.

    Indeed if true. Because today he did a one on strip that lead to a Try, then pushed a QLD player over the line for line drop out and a intercept 90 metre try all in first half.

  30. Vensays:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 9:56 pm

    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 8:38 pm
    As someone living in the ACT, who has plans for an interstate holiday very soon (to a non-impacted state)… I’m a little miffed at being targeted without a clear explanation being given, even

    You can go to SA. Wait they closed the border for ACT although they have no cases for along long time.

  31. Steve777 @ #30 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 10:35 pm

    Governments tend to be unpopular mid-term. If an actual election were to be called, many waverers will move back to their default position – vote for who they’ve always voted for, vote for whoever offers the biggest tax cuts, vote for whoever Rupert tells them to.

    This is a status quo result.

    Okay, so can we just accept that Scummo wins another term and Labor needs to get on with finding a new leadership team which can prosecute a case for a change of government.
    Is that too much to ask?

  32. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 8:51 pm
    Sodomy and Catholicism seem to have a certain resonance. As Rev Paisley said Rome is the “mother of harlots and abominations of the Earth”

    Isn’t it ironic that Sinn Féin is the most progressive party socially and economically in the Assembly

    Unionists and Sinn Fe’nn were the forerunner for what will happen in US between Tories and Progressives when Tories go bat shit crazy and progressives sit back and allow it happen after Good Friday agreement.

  33. Torchbearersays:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 9:34 pm
    ….but we have been seeing a lot of irrational behaviour against self interest by the average worker across the Anglo world lately.

    You don’t say. And why do you think is that? I have an answer but many people will not like it.

  34. Scepticsays:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 9:37 pm
    The Oxford vaccine: the trials and tribulations of a world-saving jab
    Amid bemusement from scientists at the deluge of often undeserved criticism, the Guardian pieces together the story behind the vaccine’s successes and failures

    ‘It was an inspired, idealistic and philanthropic crusade – yet they have spent the last year being attacked from all sides.”

    Monumental white anting!

    People take decades to develop a vaccine for serious illness (Take for example, Malaria). But They are able to develop a Vaccine in a year from start to finish for COVID, which itself is miracle and monumental.

    This reminds me of GFC and Rudd government response, which was the best response anywhere in the world. People were grateful for a few months and behaved afterwards as if GFC was no big deal.
    Other countries response has entrenched poverty and led political extremism we are seeing in various western countries.

  35. Yuuuge surprise

    @jonkarl tweets

    “It was all bullshit.”

    That’s what Bill Barr told me he thought of Trump’s claims of election in an astonishingly candid interview for my upcoming book on the final days of the Trump Presidency – one of many on-the-record interviews for my book.

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