Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Labor edges back into the lead on two-party preferred, but very little change overall from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor returning to a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred after a tied result last time, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). Changes on leadership ratings are likewise very modest, with Scott Morrison up a point on approval to 55% and down two on disapproval to 41%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down two to 45%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is barely changed at 53-33, compared with 53-32 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1513.

UPDATE (29/6): The Australian has published further results from the poll relating to COVID-19, including a fourth go at the question of how the Prime Minister has handled the situation. This series records a pattern of decline since his debut result of 85% good and 14% poor in April last year, to a current showing of 61% good (down nine over the last two months) and 36% bad (up nine points). Satisfaction with the government’s handling of the vaccine rollout is down three to 50% compared with two months ago, with dissatisfied up three to 46%. A new question on whether Labor would have done better turns up a neutral result, with 25% saying better, 36% no difference and 27% worse.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,469 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 9:39 pm
    Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (-1) ALP 51 (+1) Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 41 (0) ALP 37 (+1) GRN 11 (0) ON 3 (0) Preferred PM: Morrison 53 (0) Albanese 33 (+1) Morrison: Approve 55 (+1) Disapprove 41 (-2)

    What it says is that Morrison is not facing any consequences for what ever happened on COVID management because his net approval rating has increased or statistically remains same.

  2. Ven @ #51 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 11:17 pm

    What it says is that Morrison is not facing any consequences for what ever happened on COVID management

    Too soon. Wait until NSW has been on lockdown for a couple of weeks and all the other states have had to start lockdowns of their own because NSW was so slow to lock down and the vaccine rollout is only at 5%. Then ask the question again.

  3. ”Okay, so can we just accept that Scummo wins another term and Labor needs to get on with finding a new leadership team which can prosecute a case for a change of government…”

    No, Labor should go all out to push the 50-51 2PP to 53-54, which would hopefully translate to 51-52 in an actual election. Judging by reports here this morning, Chris Bowen on Insiders was doing this.

  4. I think the polling is good not bad news for Labor.

    As others have said. Given the incumbency advantage of the pandemic, too close to call at this stage is good news for Labor.

  5. Ven ”You don’t say. And why do you think is that? I have an answer but many people will not like it.”

    Please tell us your answer anyway.

  6. @Steve777 – that suggests it’s really up to Labor, and it’s only its attitude (aka wanting it more) that determines whether its 51 or 53. We know its not – being an opposition getting any kind of positive media attention is hard, it’s especially the case when there are bigger national issues drowning out all the attention and clear agendas to contort any issues.

    Oppositions always need luck and the Government to stuff it up and only then have enough political nous to capitalise.

    As I said, my own gut reaction is that the Government should be much stronger than they are right now, regardless of what I think about them. This isn’t typical mid-term middling, it’s a situation where incumbents are getting the benefit of the doubt. It’s odd and it doesn’t make sense. Morrison himself isn’t (yet) getting any significant blame, but the voters don’t seem to be in a generous mood toward his Government.


    * Perth COVID case: NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s lockdown delay hurts WA.
    * Editorial: Berejiklian’s lack of leadership has affected the whole country
    * Newspoll: Labor leading over Coalition but Scott Morrison still preferred PM
    * Scott Morrison calls urgent national cabinet meeting over COVID-19 outbreaks
    * NSW records 30 new local COVID-19 cases
    * Joe Spagnolo: Why bad blood between Barnaby Joyce and Mia Davies should worry Coalition
    * Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce dumps resources portfolio, rewards political allies

    I am confident the Coalition will lose two or three seats in WA. To retain Goverbment they will have to pick up replacements elsewhere. I don’t think they can.

  8. only just started:

    More eastern suburbs schools have been caught up in Sydney’s latest COVID-19 outbreak, with four children at South Coogee Public School testing positive and Emanuel School notifying parents on Sunday evening of a positive case in a student.

    About 550 students at South Coogee Public have been asked to isolate for 14 days after two additional students tested positive on Sunday. These students are close contacts of two previously reported cases at the school, both linked to previous clusters.


    I think the Third wave has arrive well and truly.

  9. This latest explosion of Covid is teetering.
    The untouchable Gladys’ halo has had a jolt and not secure.
    Morrison, remains unseen, strangely silent, his best friend his own image..
    Barnaby has placed his entire stake on the black.
    Andrews is back from injury.
    The media churning out endless words of prophecy and wisdom.
    The poor remain poor.
    The housing market a pinprick away.
    The lucky country, remaining so, but it’s all cause for doubt.
    The game of chance!
    The banker always wins?
    We are all “masking” our concerns.

  10. Morning all. The covid crisis obscures what is going on in the Federal government. As a result of the Nationals leadership struggle the Water Minister has been dumped outside Cabinet.

    This demonstrates that the Nationals under Joyce have given up all pretence of representing farming communities. Their sole interest in mining. How can you farm the driest continent on earth without water?

  11. Recon says:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 11:07 pm

    Taylormade says:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 10:57 pm

    Well done to the editorial teams at the Age and the ABC.

    What for their continual effort to undermine the Health response. At some point they need to be treated with the contempt they deserve.

    Bullshit should have consequences for the bullshitter.

  12. It was only 5-6 weeks ago that my well connected Liberal friend kept talking about a federal election later this year. He hasn’t mentioned this in a while now and in fact is very quiet on the subject. Could it be that the coalition have lost their Covid confidence in the wake of the vaccine stuff up and Morrison’s lack of leadership?

  13. There is a push for autonomous trucks that would require wider lanes on all country roads. The cost would be many tens of billions and there is not proof that the relevant technology works reliably. Trials with optically guided buses were in the past unsuccessful

    If only we had some sort of federal “government” that would aanalyse such things and work out if they are in the public interest.

  14. Confessions

    If we avoid an election this year it will be a good thing. I’ve always suspected that once the election is over, Scomo will take “unpopular” (ie, crazy, stupid) steps with the border.

  15. So, let’s see. Opinion pollsters who keep calculating the 2PP based on primary preferences have adjusted such 2PP in favour of the Coalition twice: once before the 2019 federal election and once afterwards, to account for their mistake as they were revealed in the actual result of elections. In spite of that and in spite of Covid (which should tend to lift the fortunes of the incumbent) the federal Coalition still lags behind the ALP in the 2PP…. and some silly commentators are calling for Albo to resign and for ScuMo to be heading for a “historical win”?…. Really?

    Two things seem to be happening in the electorate:
    a) Minor right-wing populist parties (e.g. PHON and Palmer’s) are losing traction with the disenchanted not-well-off. Hence the Coalition is losing an extremely valuable source of second preferences, especially in Queensland.
    b) States and territories are being regarded as more successful performer in the very serious Covid saga than the pathetic Coalition federal government. Hence, this time around, the “local” (state/territory politics) will affect the “global” (federal politics). ScuMo and his gang were hoping that the state-federal trick would have helped them smash the ALP in NSW, following the myth about the supa-dupa Gladys. But Gladys is sinking at the moment, whereas the performance of the ALP Qld, Vic and WA governments is sinking ScuMo’s fortunes in those states.

    This time around it looks like the 2PP is going to better predict the outcome of the federal election than the “preferred PM” statistic….

  16. Cud Chewer

    Scomo will take “unpopular” (ie, crazy, stupid) steps with the border.

    I don’t think he will. He is all marketing and his inner marketeer has seen jeopardising our relative freedom from covid is a political suicide pill. So when push comes to shove Scotty from Marketing will suddenly discover ‘caution’ .

  17. poroti

    You’re forgetting hubris, stupidity, vested interest and voter attention spans.

    Meaning, once the election is over, Scomo knows anything he does will be forgotten by the next election. Plus, he’ll be lobbied by vested interests. Plus he’s too up himself and too stupid to realise when he’s taking too big of a risk.

    And yes, he’s surrounded by idiots like Brendan and Collignon who will be telling him there’s “relatively safe” ways to weaken the border.

  18. Alpo, my conclusion is most people take little interest in politics and the election result sits somewhere in the “don’t know”.

  19. I thought this was a spoof yesterday, but now I’m not so sure. He’s speaking as the representative of country areas, of course.

    Stephen Spencer
    · 15h
    Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce says he “couldn’t give a shit” about the impact of Covid in Melbourne because coal prices are high.

  20. Crisis? What Crisis?

    Murdoch’s Sydney chapter leads it’s full page dead tree edition with ‘Cure for our Blues’ with a picture of celebrating football players. Nothing blaring about gross failure and mismanagement by Gladys and her true Boo, sQomo…

    And turning to the online version – what’s in it for me competes with the steady diet of crime, alleged ripoffs and below the fold, the himbo and bimbo cavalcade…

  21. Morning all

    The next few days will indeed be instructive as to how the health and economy will play out over next few months.

  22. Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, June 28, 2021 at 6:50 am


    I’d vote for autonomous vehicles. Fusion reactors will never be commercially viable.

    I’m pretty sure I will never see either? When we see autonomous vehicles on a slightly constrained environment like for instant a standard railway track, then I will take some interest.

  23. And in legal news, outgoing Liberal backbencher Andrew Laming is suing ABC’s Louise Milligan – a development best left uncommented upon….

    ‘MP Laming sues ABC journo for defamation
    Louise Milligan is being sued for a series of tweets which he claims ‘irrevocably’ damaged his ‘personal and professional reputation’.

  24. Alexander lives in a world of his own. Confesses he doesn’t know Barnaby well but is qualified to prophesy a long career.

    He does seem to have a clear view about the direction of the country, he is a very good communicator and he will have his work cut out for him managing his own party. I just don’t know him well enough to know his temperament. But judged against the criteria I’ve outlined for a good and successful long-term leader, there’s quite a chance Joyce could be a success.

  25. Checking out Twitter comments from the likes of Dr Kerryn Phelps and others. They stated that the beaches and parklands of Sydney were packed and people not practising social distancing.
    A little concerning to say the least.

  26. Tom Minear
    Breaking: Scott Morrison is moving for national cabinet to meet ASAP and will push leaders to make the Covid-19 jab mandatory for aged care workers. PM’s national security committee meeting tomorrow to consider further measures to tackle outbreaks.

    18 months into a pandemic and Morrison has a bright idea.

  27. lizzie at 7:29 am

    Alexander lives in a world of his own. Confesses he doesn’t know Barnaby well but is qualified to prophesy a long career.

    I thought Lexy’s expertise was in leaders who have extremely short careers ?

  28. Lizzie

    Once again Scott Morrison is gaslighting us.

    He and his govt are in charge of aged care.
    They should have had this sorted months ago.

    Seriously this frickin idiot should do this country a favour and bloody resign.

  29. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    There are three simple take-outs from the latest Newspoll which Prime Minister Scott Morrison won’t be displeased about, writes The Australian’s Simon Benson.
    Sydney residents have been warned that an outbreak of a highly contagious COVID-19 variant will get worse before it gets better as the state government rushes to finalise a significant rescue package for businesses to be unveiled as early as today.
    Tom Burton says we are facing a perilous moment as mutations test gold standard systems.
    Keeping the international border closed for longer may be the unavoidable trade-off for keeping Australia’s internal borders and economy as open as possible, while waiting for the vaccine rollout to ramp up, declares the editorial in the AFR.
    The argument Scott Morrison has consistently put – that NSW has a better way of dealing with COVID, by avoiding comprehensive closures – has been blown away by Gladys Berejiklian’s reluctant resort to a lockdown of greater Sydney and other places, writes Michelle Grattan.
    Want a laugh? Then read this claptrap from Alexander Downer who puts it to us that Barnaby Joyce might have the right leadership stuff.
    Today is when Frydenberg releases the next intergenerational report. Shane Wright has a stab at what its contents will include.
    Sean Kelly says that this latest breakout has given Morrison and Berejiklian a lesson.
    Professor John Dwyer comes out swinging with this exhortation – “My fellow over-60s, you need to be vaccinated. Yesterday. Your vaccine is available, abundant … and safe.”
    Whether a determination to keep our record of avoiding lockdowns led to a dangerous delay in making an inevitable call will be hotly debated says the SMH editorial.
    The Burnet Institute says that the path to exiting the pandemic is paved with vaccinations.
    Epidemiologist Meru Sheel writes that this lockdown hurts and tells us just here’s why we must stick with it.
    The UK Guardian tells us why most people who now die with Covid in England have been vaccinated.
    Amanda Vanstone doesn’t like it that the federal government is copping a lot of the blame.
    Victoria Fielding writes about the dangers of biased media narratives. Good stuff!
    Four words sum up the Joyce reshuffle says David Crowe, and none benefit the country.
    Barnaby Joyce has announced Bridget McKenzie and Andrew Gee will be promoted to cabinet in a reshuffle that rewards his backers in returning to the leadership. Hardly surprising, really.
    Australian charities fear a looming crackdown on the sector could silence their advocacy work, despite the Morrison government watering down several elements of its initial plans, writes Daniel Hurst. This mob has no shame.
    John Lord adds to his previously reported long list of Coalition government misdemeanours.
    The ADF and the APS are institution in its own right and is not just subject to the Government’s directions. Their roles should be respected, recognising its commitment to serving the public and its focus on impartiality and the longer-term interests of Australians, argues Andrew Podger.
    For the first three months of this year the nation braced for a jobs crisis. Jennifer Duke explains why it never happened.
    The detained Biloela family have achieved a small victory in the support of Barnaby Joyce, yet their future still remains questionable, writes Joanna Psaros.,15233
    For almost thirty years, there has been a tussle between the courts and government in Australia over immigration detention. Alas, the High Court called a truce on Wednesday with a 4-3 decision which is as unprincipled as it is harsh, argues Frank Brennan.
    Australia’s government is still in denial, caught unawares by the tide of global opinion moving against it, says Greg Jericho.
    Katina Curtis tells us that Liberal and Labor MPs want mandatory education for politicians on how to prevent and respond to sexual harassment and other serious incidents once an initial response to cleaning up parliamentary workplaces is introduced.
    Today’s “Arsehole of the Week” nomination goes to this boss of a big Victorian abattoir.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Jim Pavlidis

    Peter Broelman

    Matt Golding

    Mark Knight

    Bloody Leak!

    From the US

  30. For whatever reason Gladys has not mandated masks outdoors.
    During this outbreak it should be. Apart from minimising aerosol spread of potential virus even outdoors, it gives the signal to people to socially distance.
    It is like a marker if you will.

    I don’t get this half arsed approach to stopping this virus in its tracks.

    Two weeks may not be enough with this approach.

  31. “Breaking: Scott Morrison is moving for national cabinet to meet ASAP”
    18 months into a pandemic and Morrison has a bright idea.
    ‘Let’s make an announcement about calling a meeting to announce something’? Sounds like Morrison’s standard plate of nothing burgers.

    But maybe you r right. Maybe
    Baldrick is planning to share a cunning plan with everyone. Popcorn, streamers and fireworks at the ready.

  32. Wasn’t Alexander Downer the one that coined the phrase, ‘The things that batter’ about DV? So, like I think I’ll be taking his opinion about Barnaby Joyce on board.

  33. “Dr Victoria Fielding (nee Rollison) is an academic, independent media commentor [sic] and activist.”

    Isn’t she a member of the ALP? Kind of ironic writing a high level piece on media bias and describing yourself as independent when you are not, if that is the case.

  34. I guess anyone who doesn’t work for a large Australian media organisation, where their public utterances are dictated to them by the oligarchy, is independent.

  35. Apparently Barnaby Joyce does not know Sydney is in lockdown and regional NSW in restrictions

    deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce seems to… still be advocating for Sydney, not to go into hard lockdown? (Despite greater Sydney entering its second day of lockdown this morning).

  36. The release by the Federal Court of the Porter v Dyer papers shows it was a hand to hand combat.

    Dyer’s submission about Chrysanthou

    “In cross-exaniination, Ms Chrysanthou confirmed that her position in the proceeding “as a
    party” was that she was “neutral” and took “no position.” She gave evasive answers seeking
    to use the expression “as a party” to avoid acknowledging that she was not behaving neutrally
    However, ultimately when asked whether through the conduct of this proceeding, she had been assisting Mr Porter with the preparation of his position, Ms Chrysanthou replied, “Yes”.”

  37. Holding the fort so far.
    Fingers and toes crossed.

    Reported yesterday: 0 new local cases and 2 new cases acquired overseas.
    – 14,294 vaccine doses were administered
    – 17,617 test results were received
    More later:

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