Roy Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

Another pollster with another tight voting intention result, plus preselection latest from federal seats in Perth.

Roy Morgan has produced its second federal poll in a fortnight, and will hopefully make a regular habit of this going forward. The poll credits Labor with a bare lead of 50.5-49.5 (Morgan’s rounding being done to increments of half a percentage point), down from 51-49 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 41.5%, Labor is down half a point to 34.5%, the Greens are up half a point to 12% and One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%. State two-party breakdowns have the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales, 56-44 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, but with Labor leading 55-45 in Victoria, 52-48 in South Australia and 57-43 in Tasmania.

The poll was conducted by telephone and online surveys over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2782. Since we will presumably be hearing more from Morgan in future, it’s worth pointing out that the company is not a member of the Australian Polling Council, and thus does not observe the standards of transparency demanded of its code of conduct.

Other news:

Peter Law of The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate for the key Perth seat of Swan will be Zaneta Mascarenhas, an engineer who runs an energy management consultancy. This comes after the state party’s Left-dominated administration committee blocked the nomination of the only other contender, former South Perth councillor Fiona Reid, on the grounds she had run as an independent candidate at the 2017 state election, to the displeasure of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. Mascarenhas is aligned with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union. The West’s report also relates that Tania Lawrence, a manager at Woodside who ran unsuccessfully for Labor in Darling Range at a state by-election in 2018, is the party’s only nominee in the seat of Hasluck.

• Pollster John Utting has told The West Australian that his recent polling leads him to expect that Labor will win Swan and possibly Pearce. He also believes that Labor will “probably” win the election off the back of wins in Chisholm, Boothby, Longman and potentially Leichhardt, Braddon and Bass, although they could potentially lose Eden-Monaro and Macquarie. Utting has polled extensively for Labor and provided polling for The West Australian five months out from the March state election that had the measure of the eventual result.

Roxanne Fitzgerald of the ABC reports a complaint has been lodged with the Human Rights Commission accusing the Australian Electoral Commission of discrimination against indigenous voters, having failed to provide sufficient polling facilities to remote communities and directly enrol people who do not receive mail at a residential address. The complainants are Matthew Ryan, mayor of West Arnhem Regional Council, and Ross Mandi, chairman of Yalu Aboriginal Corporation in Galiwinku, with the support of the Maritime Union of Australia and the United Workers Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,513 comments on “Roy Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 42 of 51
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  1. Recon @ #2043 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 1:57 pm

    That’s the only reason nath/recon engages on this blog. Sees it as a threat to his ‘side’ and wants to shut it down.
    ______________
    I’m a threat to the blog theme again! William do something!

    No, you’re just a boil on the backside of the blog that has reappeared. Completely different. And you create a divisive and antagonistic atmosphere making negative not positive contributions. But you’re correct in saying that only Mr Bowe can do anything about you.

  2. Nath’s a troll that simply wants to put himself at the centre of any discussion. The method he uses is to piss off other posters with asinine smears.

    Unfortunately, posters spend too much time trying to educate him. This only encourages him to persevere.

    Ignore the cretin and he’ll basically disappear up his own clacker.

  3. Ballantyne @ #2044 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 1:59 pm

    lizzie @ #1986 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 1:27 pm

    Recon and Spray

    There is also a core of very superior Sydneysiders who look down on Melbourne, and say so.

    There is a core of very superior Sydneysiders who don’t give a toss for the rest of Australia, including regional NSW, far less Melbourne.

    Possibly. But I grew up in regional NSW, and it’s clear say that regional residents have much more contempt for Sydneysiders than the other way around. And they’re encouraged to express that openly.

    Muppets like McCormack and Joyce trade off this prejudice politically, and that doesn’t benefit anyone.

  4. Despite the media and lib/nats supporters denial

    Federal and NSW Lib/nats did not learn anything from the ruby princess fiasco

  5. Spray @ #2049 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 2:01 pm

    poroti @ #1678 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 8:04 am

    The ripples from the mismanaged NSW Gladys Outbreak continue to spread outward……..
    .
    More than 250 FIFO workers in Perth told to isolate after NT mine site positive case

    About 900 people have left the mine site since June 18 via charter flights to Darwin, Alice Springs, Perth and Brisbane.
    https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/west-australians-caught-up-in-nt-gold-mine-covid-case-20210626-p584ic.html

    Wait, what? This came from Qld HQ.

    The NT Cluster did. Not the NSW Cluster.

  6. This guy is a professor in health policy, what does he know.

    Bill Bowtell AO
    @billbowtell
    ·
    42m
    Western Australian
    @RogerCookMLA
    and NT Chief Minister
    @fanniebay
    moving with commendable speed to stop spread of #COVID19 before, not after, it becomes a major problem. Nothing “proportionate” about their responses. Prevention better than catch up.
    @australian

  7. Spray at 2:01 pm
    So it seems but not to worry the Gladys Outbreak still had one spare for WA.

    .
    WA moves to phase one restrictions after positive COVID-19 test

    The physiotherapist arrived in WA from Sydney on Sunday.

    She tested negative for the virus on Monday — but developed symptoms on Thursday and tested positive late last night.
    https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-restrictions-wa-moves-to-phase-one-restrictions-after-positive-covid-19-test-ng-b881912897z

  8. yabba says:
    Just fuck off, diarrhoetic arsewipe. As an expert, which version of Bach’s Toccata and Fugue in D Minor do you favour? Which rock legends were better, Non Blondes or Foreigner?
    ________________
    That’s gotta be the best post ever. Part weird insult with anal fixation, part Rock Quiz.

    Anyway, I’m off for lunch with a good friend named Marcus. I think some of you should relax. You seem a little demented. And remember, I’m actually backing the Labor leader this time.

  9. C@tmomma @ #2059 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 2:08 pm

    Spray @ #2049 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 2:01 pm

    poroti @ #1678 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 8:04 am

    The ripples from the mismanaged NSW Gladys Outbreak continue to spread outward……..
    .
    More than 250 FIFO workers in Perth told to isolate after NT mine site positive case

    About 900 people have left the mine site since June 18 via charter flights to Darwin, Alice Springs, Perth and Brisbane.
    https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/west-australians-caught-up-in-nt-gold-mine-covid-case-20210626-p584ic.html

    Wait, what? This came from Qld HQ.

    The NT Cluster did. Not the NSW Cluster.

    Yeah. I was referring to Poroti’s post wasn’t I? That was about the NT case from Qld HQ, which Poroti attributed to the “NSW Gladys Outbreak”.

  10. WA is dealing with outbreak from NSW

    NT dealing with outbreak from HQ in Qld

    Victoria already had to deal with outbreak from SA HQ

    And now potentially NSW flight attendant being an issue here in Victoria.

    Sigh

  11. @GeorgeBludger tweets

    NSW contact tracing has failed, as it would in any other state under the same circumstances. That’s how a virus that’s spreading faster than human beings can track it works. No gold standard, superhero powers, or exceptionalism. Reality.

  12. Guytaur

    What many of us have been trying to say for eons.

    There is nothing exceptional about NSW and their handling of COVID.

  13. Recon @ #2062 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 2:11 pm

    yabba says:
    Just fuck off, diarrhoetic arsewipe. As an expert, which version of Bach’s Toccata and Fugue in D Minor do you favour? Which rock legends were better, Non Blondes or Foreigner?
    ________________
    That’s gotta be the best post ever. Part weird insult with anal fixation, part Rock Quiz.

    Anyway, I’m off for lunch with a good friend named Marcus. I think some of you should relax. You seem a little demented. And remember, I’m actually backing the Labor leader this time.

    Enjoy your lunch Recon. The real world is cool.

  14. Spray

    Yep. Hence why NSW have always been the outlier with this approach.

    Politics all the way and it hasn’t even stopped them today.

    I reckon it’s time they shut the f up and get with reality.

    The bubble has exploded

  15. Victoria

    Yes.

    I like George’s tweet because it sums it up well with no bullshit about a NSW Victoria rivalry.

  16. Anyone else remember the Hunt stunt back in Feb when he announced the first arrival of the Pfizer vaccine? Small batch but the advertorial press conference was major breaking news across the networks. Some had helicopter imagery of the unloading of the plane. Very exciting.

  17. I’m sure we could get a small group of widely popular Australians for an ad campaign purely to promote the need for mask wearing when having cold and flu-like symptoms.

    Mask-wearing should be promoted as an ongoing everyday part of life, just like wearing a hat. Our health and economy would be so much better.

    All we need is some leadership from Canberra.

  18. Lots of tweets in this vein

    See new Tweets
    Conversation

    Christina Mader
    @Christina_Mader
    Gladys didn’t want to inconvenience anyone in NSW earlier in the week.
    Now she’s inconvenienced the whole country. Thanks, Gladys! I can now finally rock the new mask I bought during our last lockdown HERE IN PERTH! Angry face

  19. Ballantyne,

    lizzie @ #1986 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 1:27 pm

    Recon and Spray

    There is also a core of very superior Sydneysiders who look down on Melbourne, and say so.

    There is a core of very superior Sydneysiders who don’t give a toss for the rest of Australia, including regional NSW, far less Melbourne.

    These same Sydney-siders despise Western Sydney more than Melbourne. As a resident of Darlinghurst put it to me “Everything west of Ashfield is “The West” and to be feared.

    That was some years ago, and I hope we are making progress on that attitude, but it lives.

  20. Simon Katich says:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 2:17 pm
    Anyone else remember the Hunt stunt back in Feb when he announced the first arrival of the Pfizer vaccine? Small batch but the advertorial press conference was major breaking news across the networks. Some had helicopter imagery of the unloading of the plane. Very exciting.
    ———————–

    Yes, i was thinking about the same thing , Hunt claimed the eagle has landed , Pfizer was ready to rollout out to front-line workers, old age homes , to those who were vulnerable

  21. Victoria @ #2078 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 2:21 pm

    Lots of tweets in this vein

    See new Tweets
    Conversation

    Christina Mader
    @Christina_Mader
    Gladys didn’t want to inconvenience anyone in NSW earlier in the week.
    Now she’s inconvenienced the whole country. Thanks, Gladys! I can now finally rock the new mask I bought during our last lockdown HERE IN PERTH! Angry face

    The woman flew from Sydney to Perth last Sunday. If WA thought NSW should have been in lockdown at that point, why was she allowed in? If they didn’t think NSW should have been in lockdown, then why are they blaming them for not being in lockdown?

    I know it’s Twitter, so logic doesn’t really apply.

  22. It was ironic the person who claimed to be soaring in the sky like an eagle was Scott Morrison , who was amongst the first who got the Pfizer shot

  23. spray

    Possibly. But I grew up in regional NSW, and it’s clear say that regional residents have much more contempt for Sydneysiders than the other way around. And they’re encouraged to express that openly.

    Muppets like McCormack and Joyce trade off this prejudice politically, and that doesn’t benefit anyone.

    That is actually a very good point. I used to spend a lot of time in Narrabri and Coonabarabran, and you certainly felt it there.

  24. GG

    Berejikilian threw vaccine hesitancy as an excuse under the bus.
    She was very clear it was supply not demand that was the problem

  25. Douglas and Milko @ #2079 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 2:27 pm

    Ballantyne,

    lizzie @ #1986 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 1:27 pm

    Recon and Spray

    There is also a core of very superior Sydneysiders who look down on Melbourne, and say so.

    There is a core of very superior Sydneysiders who don’t give a toss for the rest of Australia, including regional NSW, far less Melbourne.

    These same Sydney-siders despise Western Sydney more than Melbourne. As a resident of Darlinghurst put it to me “Everything west of Ashfield is “The West” and to be feared.

    That was some years ago, and I hope we are making progress on that attitude, but it lives.

    Inner-city and wealthy coastal areas looking down on the ‘burbs? Hardly an attitude specific to Sydney.

  26. guytaur says:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 1:42 pm

    Having an environment and humans in that environment are a basic assumption of which the costs are not built into the basic foundation of economics.

    This is absolutely, completely, totally, entirely, irrefutably, incontrovertibly wrong.

    The absolute starting point of economics is the natural endowment. Read some economics. Try your very best to apply your mind to it. Detach yourself from your ideological settings.

  27. Vaccine hesitancy still exists. Everyone seems frightened of AZ because of the blood clotting and the opinion that Pfizer is a better solution.

    I go by the theory that any coverage is better than none.

  28. With Sydney now in lockdown for two weeks, various wags have been satirizing the idiotic “Dictator Dan” meme created by Murdoch shills, and applying it to the NSW premier.

    So far they’ve got “Gulag Gladys,” “Berejiklistan” and my personal fave “Gladdafi.”

  29. Spray

    On Covid the sneering is at the government.

    Those wealthy elite at Joh Bailey’s hairdressers are in the same boat as the Western Suburbs or anywhere else in the country.

    That includes the idiocy of human behaviour.

  30. lizzie posts:

    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 1:44 pm

    [‘Victor Kline
    @victorklineTNL
    · 4h

    PORTER PROSECUTION

    @VaniaHolt9 and I are both ex prosecutors. We have read the Porter dossier. We can’t believe the failure to take action. As a result we intend to launch a private criminal prosecution against Porter. Anyone with further evidence please contact us.’]

    Although possible, it can be fraught. In relation to Porter, police decided not to proceed against him on the purported ground that there was ‘insufficient admissible evidence’ to secure a conviction, which would, of course, be taken into account by a registrar asked to sign off on a private prosecution. I’m unsure whether in deciding not to prosecute, police had access to the dossier on him, which was recently released by the Federal Court.

  31. Daniel Andrews back in charge in Victoria tomorrow.

    That will give Murdoch/Stokes/Costello cartel an opportunity to deflect away from Morrison and Gladys.

  32. N

    There you go. Proving my point.

    We know for a fact environment is not a cost market models considered.

    It’s been catch up ever since.

    Just like your claim Marx was not propagating an economic model.

    Your religious zeal is akin to Catholics burning people at the stake.

  33. My impression of Sydney was it being full of people from somewhere else. Central Coast. Adelaide. Maclean. Dublin. Dubbo. Middle East….. Even when I met people from Sydney it was rarely in their home suburb.

    There are definitely parochial areas. But you can live there for decades and barely notice it.

  34. GG

    It’s a convenient excuse for Morrison not getting vaccine supplies. We can worry about hesitancy after we get supplies for those that want it.

    Supply is the core problem for Australia. We can catch up to America and like them ramp up on the hesitancy after those keen get their full vaccination

  35. I grew up in Stanmore. So I’m definitely from Sydney. 🙂

    But we have a long-standing pocket of family on the Central Coast as well as on the Mid North Coast (is Kempsey and Grafton classified as Mid North Coast?).

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