Roy Morgan has produced its second federal poll in a fortnight, and will hopefully make a regular habit of this going forward. The poll credits Labor with a bare lead of 50.5-49.5 (Morgan’s rounding being done to increments of half a percentage point), down from 51-49 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 41.5%, Labor is down half a point to 34.5%, the Greens are up half a point to 12% and One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%. State two-party breakdowns have the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales, 56-44 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, but with Labor leading 55-45 in Victoria, 52-48 in South Australia and 57-43 in Tasmania.
The poll was conducted by telephone and online surveys over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2782. Since we will presumably be hearing more from Morgan in future, it’s worth pointing out that the company is not a member of the Australian Polling Council, and thus does not observe the standards of transparency demanded of its code of conduct.
Other news:
• Peter Law of The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate for the key Perth seat of Swan will be Zaneta Mascarenhas, an engineer who runs an energy management consultancy. This comes after the state party’s Left-dominated administration committee blocked the nomination of the only other contender, former South Perth councillor Fiona Reid, on the grounds she had run as an independent candidate at the 2017 state election, to the displeasure of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. Mascarenhas is aligned with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union. The West’s report also relates that Tania Lawrence, a manager at Woodside who ran unsuccessfully for Labor in Darling Range at a state by-election in 2018, is the party’s only nominee in the seat of Hasluck.
• Pollster John Utting has told The West Australian that his recent polling leads him to expect that Labor will win Swan and possibly Pearce. He also believes that Labor will “probably” win the election off the back of wins in Chisholm, Boothby, Longman and potentially Leichhardt, Braddon and Bass, although they could potentially lose Eden-Monaro and Macquarie. Utting has polled extensively for Labor and provided polling for The West Australian five months out from the March state election that had the measure of the eventual result.
• Roxanne Fitzgerald of the ABC reports a complaint has been lodged with the Human Rights Commission accusing the Australian Electoral Commission of discrimination against indigenous voters, having failed to provide sufficient polling facilities to remote communities and directly enrol people who do not receive mail at a residential address. The complainants are Matthew Ryan, mayor of West Arnhem Regional Council, and Ross Mandi, chairman of Yalu Aboriginal Corporation in Galiwinku, with the support of the Maritime Union of Australia and the United Workers Union.
Yep.
Stephen Koukoulas
@TheKouk
The decision of Ms Berejiklian to postpone the lockdown is shaping up to be one of the worst by an Australian politician in many decades.
guytaur says:
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 2:38 pm
N
There you go. Proving my point.
We know for a fact environment is not a cost market models considered.
This is false. It’s just wrong. You have an obsolete and prejudiced comprehension of what economics is…which is, to repeat, a form of study. Whole areas of thought are given to trying to establish the values that can be assigned to environmental flows…including the flow of environmental benefits and the costs of impairing those benefits (say, as a result of pollution). There are many examples, ranging from theories of fishing and forestry, to water conservation and supply, to the use of the radio spectrum, the inherent values of bio-diversity and domain protection; to the value of the atmosphere (and, by implication, the costs of atmospheric degradations); the so-called “tragedy of the commons”; the use of game theory (say, for example, “The prisoners’ dilemma”, and “free-rider theory”.
These are all concepts developed in economics. They are useful as ways of perceiving and understanding human activity in its broadest contexts, including, social, cultural and environmental dimensions.
Simon Katich @ #2095 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 2:41 pm
Can’t believe you included Maclean but left out Harwood Island.
steve davis @ #2070 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 2:14 pm
Cross fingers on that. Gutwein was 3 days late closing the border to NSW.
Victoria
Acknowledge Berejikilian failure.
However like Labor publicly keep the pressure on Morrison.
A vaccinated NSW would be a whole different story.
All this Sydney/Melbourne stuff has always irritated me. Having lived and worked in both cities, they both have a lot going for them – that’s why they always are very high on that “Most Livable” thingy.
As to the treatment by our MSM – well that’s another kettle of rotting fish. Clearly politically motivated. Clearly Sydney/LNP biased and upsetting to a lot of Vics. The PM is PM of Australia not just Sydney. He’s a shocker.
The mention of Kirribilli House got me thinking though. Why does the PM get a residence in Sydney? Is there others I haven’t heard of elsewhere around the country?
Wikipedia:
“Kirribilli House is the secondary official residence of the Prime Minister of Australia. Located in the Sydney harbourside suburb of Kirribilli”
Taz
At least we get less visitors in winter.
Generalissimo Gladys
C@tmomma @ #2098 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 2:45 pm
Grafton comes under Far North Coast, just. Probably on the basis that you can almost see cane farms from there!
Northern Rivers was a more common designation back in the day (Tweed, Richmond, Clarence), but I’m not sure if it’s used as much these days.
Spray @ #1945 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 2:52 pm
When I was little it was just ‘a long way away’!
‘Shellbell says:
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 2:39 pm
The NT outbreak is related to NSW because the miner was airborne over NSW.’
_________________________________
I believe the miner’s journey started in NSW. Went to Qld. Then to the NT. Apparently caught it in Qld.
N
All bolted on after the fact. You keep denying the basic part of the model point.
You are the one promoting Keynesian economics. A model that does not have environment at its core.
C@tmomma @ #2110 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 2:54 pm
The drive is SO much easier now, but has lost a little bit of the romantic appeal. That’s progress I guess.
steve davis @ #2107 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 2:52 pm
True dat.
Apart from Dark MoFo (16/6 – 22/6) 🙂
Oops
The South Australian premier, health minister and police commissioner will be speaking at 2.45pm …..
Justin Stevens
@_JustinStevens_
·
Jun 26
Premier Berejiklian to
@abc730
on June 10: “We have in New South Wales taken our citizens on a particular journey and it is very different to the journey other states have taken their citizens through. They’ve opted for the harsher, blunter instruments.”
The Perth case had visited IKEA.
You can get everything at IKEA.
To be perfectly honest, the Melbourne-Sydney rivalry has always been about Sydney being jealous of Melbourne’s weather.
GG
Haha. Melbourne over time has experienced more humid weather, which is more like Sydney. I dont like it at all. Lol!
[‘NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has defended delaying putting the state into lockdown after confirming 30 new COVID-19 cases.
Key points:
Gladys Berejiklian says she does not regret delaying the state lockdown.
Police have issued 15 lockdown-related fines since the lockdown began.
The state recorded more than 52,000 tests.
Ms Berejiklian warned the number of cases would likely increase this week.
“We do anticipate that in the next few days, case numbers are likely to increase even beyond what we have seen today because we are seeing that people in isolation, unfortunately, would have already transmitted to all their house contacts,” she said.
“I’m convinced if we pull together, we will start seeing the results we want to achieve over the next two weeks.”] – SMH
“Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien,”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3Kvu6Kgp88
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 1:22 pm
Spray, there is a type of Victorian, and it’s not all of us by any means, who have a bizarre hatred for Sydney. It’s not in the jokey way that some have, it is an ingrained meanness about anything to do with Sydney. Nothing good can be acknowledged about the place and everything is derided. I think it’s got something to do with jealousy for the Harbour and the natural beauty you find around it.
……..
That’s because Sydney is a shithole and not really a city, at least in any meaningful sense of the word.
Melbourne is a city, and has all the universal attributes of one.
For the most part, Sydney is a souless conglomeration of suburbs surrounding a central business district, with appallingly mismanaged traffic, and a pretty view if you can afford it.
No genuine working class people live within 15 miles of the nice bits, and almost all of its social housing has been pushed to the margins.
It is a hopeless, larger and dreary version of Brisbane, yet lacking the same optimism, and without the intestinal fortitude to admit it.
Sydney is like what New York would look like, if it were designed by an idiot.
To be perfectly honest, the Melbourne-Sydney rivalry has always been about Sydney being jealous of Melbourne’s weather.
——————
I would take eithers weather.
200mm for the month and climbing here. Mean high temp of 1odegc
Ballantyne @ #2044 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 1:59 pm
You don’t mean the Eastern Suburbs residents who don’t know what it’s like to not not leave the Eastern Suburbs, because they never have.
Why would anyone mention Maclean?
(In any context)
Arthur,
Sydney is a glorified shanty town, eh?
Greetings from Motown.
This has been very informative. Thanks everyone.
Explanation: I visited a well-known retail chain outlet the other day, and was asked upon entering if I’d registered. I said no, where?
I was directed to a desk where there was a sign-in-type ledger, and did my duty. But I wondered why I was asked if I had registered when it was obvious I’d just entered the store and wouldn’t have had time to do so.
So, the app entry log-in thingy makes sense now. I think I must be one of only a handful of Australians who doesn’t possess a “smart” phone!
Regarding the Sydney-Melbourne, which-is-best/better. Christ, that’s been a media beat-up for eva, well, ever since Jesus was a lad, or Marvellous Melbourne, whichever came first.
Patricia Karvelas has an afternoon program on Gippsland AM [I don’t know if she is beamed to any other affiliates]. I find her very informative and extremely likeable. She has a wicked sense of humour and an incisive bent of mind. She doesn’t appear to be of the “gotcha” genre.
Whereas Virginia Trioli, on the other hand, is, unfortunately, still of that mindset. While she will pull up callers who make extreme comments, she seems to lean to the right.
However, late night on the radio, is always out of Sydney. And regarding Baaarnaby’s resurrection,the women who call in are invariably forgiving of his transgressions, one even claiming that his first wife was over it, and they’d made up. What!
My thoughts on this are probably archaic, but I think that if you can be dishonest in your personal life, with your so-called nearest and dearest, how much easier is it to be dishonest with people you don’t know?
Getting back to Covid. I just can’t bring myself to have AstraZenica. The fact that they’ve changed the goal posts to people 60 and under being told NOT to have it, just makes it worse, for me.
Anyway, just my thoughts. Take care out there.
[‘Live breaking news: NSW, WA, NT, QLD report new Covid cases, with health authorities instating new restrictions and lockdowns.
Australia’s Covid battle has significantly worsened in the past 24 hours, as multiple states and territories respond to new cases and expanding contacts.
Victoria records second coronavirus case linked to NSW.
Four Sydney LGAs thrown into lockdown.
Premier Gladys Berejiklian has announced the state has recorded 30 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 which are all linked to the Bondi cluster.
The Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland have joined New South Wales in implementing restrictions as health authorities battle surging Covid cases.
Four new cases connected to an infected miner in the NT has sparked a snap 48-hour lockdown in Darwin, Palmerston and Litchfield, with residents only allowed to leave their home for five reasons: to seek medical treatment, to purchase essential goods and services, for essential work, to undertake one hour of exercise or to give care.
In WA, a traveller from Sydney has also tested positive for what authorities believe is the Delta variant. As a result, the state has reinstated new restrictions across the Perth and Peel areas.
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/live-breaking-news-sydney-lockdown-new-venues-of-concern-daily-case-numbers/live-coverage/e8b954eac35e2588a1bf462361a58a03
FIFTY. Book the f*cking lot of ’em -in the ACT, and in NSW.
NSW residents at Braddon hotel breached Covid quarantine
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7315218/braddon-covid-breach-50-people-ordered-home-to-nsw/?cs=14264
Oakeshott Country @ #2123 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:11 pm
Harsh but fair OC, but may I recommend the coffee at Botero next time you’re passing through? You’ll be pleasantly surprised.
Apparently we are likely to get a Newspoll tonight, according to Kevin Bonham.
”
porotisays:
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 12:31 pm
Re NT and “Delta” . Gunner thinks it is…………..
.
Michael Gunner says the outbreak represents the Northern Territory’s biggest crisis since the beginning of the pandemic.
He says the cases involve the highly contagious Delta variant and more infections are expected.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7315092/delta-variant-likely-in-nt-mine-virus-case/
”
Poroti
The statement read by Gunner at the start of Press conference was a cracker. As I listen ee to what he said I can’t help thinking “you can’t make this stuff up”
Douglas and Milko @ #2129 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:16 pm
D & M, can I clarify an earlier comment I made? The slur on Dr Chant’s integrity was that she knew the index case for Avalon, but was keeping it a secret. That was the comment you responded to, but you were just saying that she was (rightly) protecting the anonymity of the couple who were known to have spread it further. Two very different things.
So you in no way questioned Dr Chant’s integrity on that issue. Sorry for mixing up the posts.
But yeah, your further point that they went too hard on the limo driver is correct as well. There’s been far too much of that sort of thing, and no public health person thinks it’s a good way to go.
6 NSW quarantine breakers caught in a Canberra Hotel. Escorted by police back to NSW. Charges may be pending.
OC
I have my reasons.
Geez, you know things are bad in NSW when you “escape” to Canberra.
guytaur says:
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 2:56 pm
N
All bolted on after the fact. You keep denying the basic part of the model point.
You are the one promoting Keynesian economics. A model that does not have environment at its core.
Bollocks. I’m not “promoting” anything. You should read some economics.
As to Marx, no-one seriously considers he was an economist. He’s considered to be, variously, a sociologist, a philosopher, a political theorist, a thinker on history. He was obviously interested in production. He invented the concepts of “modes of production” and “capitalism”. But these are not merely categories in economics but offer descriptions of the relations that exist in whole societies across history.
Of course, he was interested in very much more than that. His most useful idea is that of “alienation”, a concept that can be applied in politics, sociology, art, culture, psychology, anthropology, economy as well as ecology. I dare say it’s a concept that can be applied to learning, to religious experience and to blogging.
Very useful and elegant idea.
Greensborough Growlersays:
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 3:11 pm
Arthur,
Sydney is a glorified shanty town, eh?
…….
Brilliant!
The Rum Corps would be pleased.
D & M
A week or so ago, you responded to a post I made regarding FASD and asked for more information. The following is my reply.
Please note I am not a GP or an expert on the subject as you thought. I take an interest in it for purely personal reasons. (I would advise those who are not at all interested in the topic to scroll by now).
First, to recap:
1. Alcohol is a known teratogen ie. it is an agent which can cause damage to the fetus.
2. FASD (Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder) is an acquired brain injury caused by exposure to alcohol during pregnancy, which can result in both physical and behavioural effects in the child.
3. The effects can vary greatly from child to child and can become evident at various stages of development all the way to adulthood.
The study of FASD is still in its infancy and there is still much more to learn about the condition. However, some important conclusions can be drawn from the evidence accumulated so far. For example:
1. Certain types of effects of the condition can be linked to specific stages of the pregnancy. The changes in facial features for instance, which happens in about three percent of cases, is known to occur between day nineteen and day twenty two.
2. It is also known that just one small drink consumed at just the wrong time can trigger FASD effects in a pregnancy. A mother would have to be incredibly unlucky for that to happen, but studies have shown that it can and does occur. That is why it is absolutely true to say there is no safe level of alcohol during pregnancy.
3. It is only logical that mothers who drink heavily throughout the pregnancy have a much greater risk of having an FASD baby than those who limit their intake of alcohol and that shows up in the various studies. But that does not change the simple fact that there is always some level of risk involved and women have the right to be fully informed of that, so they can weigh up the odds and decide for themselves if they really want to take the gamble.
From 20 July 2023 all alcoholic drinks sold in Australia will be required to carry the following prominent warning:
PREGNANCY WARNING Alcohol can cause lifelong harm to your baby
Google ‘Alcohol warning labels Australia’ if you want to see the exact colour and format.
Finally, in regard to Redfern/Waterloo, I think the issues there are very complex. But one of them is certainly the level of alcohol consumption, with the associated problems of FASD. This in turn leads to more drinking and more FASD. It can be a vicious self perpetuating cycle. The first step towards finding a solution in my opinion is to educate the young women, in particular – perhaps have it taught in schools – that if they want to give their babies the best chance of a good healthy start in life, they need to stay away from alcohol altogether during their pregnancies.
Douglas and Milko @ #2079 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 2:27 pm
So true, D & M. A friend of mine from Potts Point considers anything west of Central Station as Laramie! Yet another friend in Fairlight only travels south of the Spit Bridge if his life depends on it. 🙂
I sometimes feel I’m a rarity in loving my visits to Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth Canberra and Hobart (and places in between) equally as they all have a variety of wonderful and varied interests for me. Alas, I’ve not yet made it to NT but it’s on the bucket list.
Around the time of the Northern beaches outbreak I was accused of wanting NSWs to have an outbreak. That wasn’t true but I was concerned that the way in which NSW’s was managing outbreaks was so far from gold standard that it would inevitably lead to an outbreak that seeded interstate. This has now happened and all states are now waiting to see how much damage has been done due to the hubris of one states premier.
Nope, not a rarity at all. They all have plenty to offer. Makes the parochialism (beyond a bit of gentle ribbing) seem even dumber.
Assantdj @ #2139 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:30 pm
When do you think Sydney should have been locked down Assantdj?
C@t
“Yep. Trying to make generalisations and turn them into slurs of valued posters here, as recon-structed nath is doing, is just being divisive. That’s how he rolls though.”
Yet why do you all take the bait and make this person a winner?
Ignore, ignore and then ignore some more!
Spray
As soon as they knew Delta had escaped quarantine they should have imposed some restrictions including mask wearing as a minimum.
Ashleigh Raper questioning Gladys’performance.
“Millions are locked down and thousands are in isolation after being potentially exposed to the virus.
People are scared, anxious and losing money.
The focus is on managing the immediate crisis.
But soon that will shift to how NSW ended up in this situation.
Ms Berejiklian has claimed credit in the good times and now in the bad, she can’t simply say she was following advice”.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-27/analysis-gladys-berejiklian-delayed-nsw-covid19-lockdown/100247422
https://twitter.com/i/status/1409017592665104385
Victoriasays:
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 2:47 pm
Yep.
Stephen Koukoulas
@TheKouk
The decision of Ms Berejiklian to postpone the lockdown is shaping up to be one of the worst by an Australian politician in many decades.
________________
Lets just wait and see if it costs the lives of over 800 NSW citizens.
Assantdj @ #2144 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:37 pm
But they didn’t, and Mr McGowan knew they didn’t. And he kept the border open, so was obviously comfortable with those settings.
Snap, lizzie.
Spray,
No problem – afterwards I realised that my comment could be taken the way you inferred. I should have been much clearer!