Spillover effects

Another Nationals leadership spill may be brewing, amid growing discontent with low-key incumbent Michael McCormack.

A big but not necessarily good weekend for former and current Nationals leaders:

• Moves to topple Michael McCormack as Nationals leader could come to a boil at today’s party room meeting, which The Australian reports could see a spill or no-confidence motion being moved against him. Barnaby Joyce, David Littleproud and Keith Pitt are all identified as potential successors, though presumably the latter is a long shot. The Australian reports Littleproud will not challenge McCormack directly, meaning he will only nominate if the motion passed is one of no confidence, which would exclude McCormack from contention. Samantha Maiden of News Corp says she “can count to ten votes” for Joyce, which is one fewer than he needs. A spill motion moved by Joyce’s backers in February last year was unsuccessful.

Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports former Nationals leader John Anderson has failed in his bid to return to politics, having lost a preselection vote for the New South Wales Senate ticket to former state party director Ross Cadell by a margin of 42 to 39.

On the other side of the fence:

• Labor’s national executive has endorsed former state party secretary Sam Rae as its candidate for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe, after a process which had been delayed by a Supreme Court injunction and may yet be overruled should the court strike down the national executive takeover of the state party’s preselection process. The Herald-Sun reports that Rae won 18 votes against three for rival candidate Sarah Carter, a former mayor of Maribyrnong.

• Labor’s leadership selection process in Tasmania, which was determined half by party members and half by state conference delegates, has been won by David O’Byrne, a powerful figure in the Left faction. Adam Langenberg of the ABC reports O’Byrne easily defeated rival candidate Shane Broad with 72% of the votes from the ballot of more than 1200 party members and 75% of the state conference votes. A similar process in New South Wales did not proceed after Michael Daley withdrew from contention, leaving Chris Minns to be elected unopposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,613 comments on “Spillover effects”

Comments Page 2 of 33
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  1. meher babasays:
    Monday, June 21, 2021 at 7:31 am
    The Nats should bite the bullet this morning and make Littleproud leader.

    Staying with McCormack or bringing back Joyce are equally unviable moves.

    Why don’t you like ALP ? 🙂

  2. The Nats pollies are being wedged between miners and farmers.

    There used to be a tension because mining exports made the Aussie dollar stronger, hurting farming commodity export prices.

    But now there are more direct and obvious connections in the wedge.

    Farmers know that global warming and coal mining are pals.

    Farmers also know that fracking and irrigation water are not pals.

  3. Ven @ #51 Monday, June 21st, 2021 – 9:10 am


    meher babasays:
    Monday, June 21, 2021 at 7:31 am
    The Nats should bite the bullet this morning and make Littleproud leader.

    Staying with McCormack or bringing back Joyce are equally unviable moves.

    Why don’t you like ALP ? 🙂

    They will hopefully go with the most useless dropkick who sticks his hand up.

  4. Victoria

    It was one of the headlines quoted on early ABC News by someone who seemed a fan of Gladys.
    Good old ABC. Always up to date. 🙁

  5. From that HS story:

    The Andrews government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic has costed the support of thousands of Victorian voters but Daniel Andrews…

    Voters in Melbourne’s west, Labor’s traditional heartland, are turning on the Andrews government amid growing angst over the effect of the pandemic and four lockdowns.

    A statewide poll of 1484 Victorians – a larger sample than usual – has revealed that despite 44 per cent in Melbourne’s west identifying as ALP supporters, only 36 per cent would vote for the party if an election was held now.

    Overall, Labor’s primary vote has fallen to 37 per cent, down from 42.86 at the 2018 election, while support for the Coalition has jumped from 35.2 per cent to 41 per cent.

    Voters in Melbourne’s west, Labor’s traditional heartland, are turning on the Andrews government amid growing angst over the effect of the pandemic and four lockdowns.

    A statewide poll of 1484 Victorians – a larger sample than usual – has revealed that despite 44 per cent in Melbourne’s west identifying as ALP supporters, only 36 per cent would vote for the party if an election was held now.

    Overall, Labor’s primary vote has fallen to 37 per cent, down from 42.86 at the 2018 election, while support for the Coalition has jumped from 35.2 per cent to 41 per cent.

    On a two-party preferred basis, Labor still leads the Coalition 52.4 per cent to 47.6 per cent, but it is well short of its 57.3 per cent vote in 2018.

    And the undecideds are again expected to play a key role in the 2022 election, with almost 13 per cent of those polled not sure about which way to vote.

    Polling experts warn another major lockdown could significantly harm the government’s re-election prospects.

    And senior Labor sources say there is growing angst inside the government due to the disproportionate pain of lockdowns in Melbourne’s west.

    With a higher proportion of casual workers, people who cannot work from home and struggling small businesses in the city’s west, they fear they have been hit hardest by long-running restrictions.
    .
    .
    “There’s been a definite softening of enthusiastic, positive feedback,” one MP said.

    “There are definitely some people who think there should be some consequences for us, rightfully or wrongfully.”

    It showed Daniel Andrews, who is expected to return next Monday from 16 weeks’ leave due to a fall, remained the preferred premier, with 45 per cent of the vote compared with just 25 per cent for Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien.

    Almost one third of voters would prefer neither as Premier. Less than half rated the performance of Mr Andrews as favourable, with 46.5 per cent rating it unfavourable. He was more popular among women and younger voters.

    And he remained firm favourite over Acting Premier James Merlino for the top job, with 67.5 per cent backing him in a straight contest.

    However, Mr Merlino is more likeable than Mr Andrews, with 54 per cent saying they had a favourable impression of the former, compared to 49.7 for the latter

    On a two-party preferred basis, Labor still leads the Coalition 52.4 per cent to 47.6 per cent, but it is well short of its 57.3 per cent vote in 2018.

    And the undecideds are again expected to play a key role in the 2022 election, with almost 13 per cent of those polled not sure about which way to vote.

  6. Interesting…..

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    Qld’s CHO Jeanette Young is moving on to become QLD’s Governor from Nov 1.
    QLD’s Premier says “people have stopped me in the street.. and said.. Dr Young is our next Governor.. and I’m delighted to say it’s happening.”
    9:13 AM · Jun 21, 2021·Twitter Web App
    1
    Retweet

  7. I hope the Nats go for Barnyard 2.0 . It would make for ‘interesting times’ for Scotty from Marketing. Also the Worshipful Order of Cartoonists would greatly appreciate the move.

  8. Laughtong

    If the Herald sun was a reputable paper, it would be reporting on the front page the failure of the federal govt on the vaccine procurement and quarantine failures.
    Also have Morrison on the front page and his secret trip overseas whilst covid runs rampant.

    But lets go with state vic Labor being at fault for having to control the virus via lockdown, through no fault of their own. Particularly this time around.

  9. Sean Parnell
    @seanparnell
    ·
    4m
    The flight attendant is believed to have been infected in hotel quarantine, from another crew member who arrived on different flight. She has the Alpha strain, not the Delta strain, and went to DFO and the Portuguese centre without knowing she was infected. CHO Young optimistic.
    Show this thread
    Anthony Macali Retweeted
    Luke Cooper
    @luke__cooper
    ·
    13m
    #BREAKING: CHO Jeanette Young confirms yesterday’s COVID case was NOT an Emirates attendant – she had come to Australia to work as a cabin staff member with another airline & contracted virus in HQ from another flight worker who wasn’t on the same flight.


  10. Greg Sheridan argues that the National Party is a dysfunctional mess, losing its support and losing its identity.

    Look who is talking. Greg “expert on foreign affairs” Sheridan is commenting on Australian domestic politics. I thought he only dumps on ALP.

  11. Victoria @ #58 Monday, June 21st, 2021 – 9:18 am

    Laughtong

    If the Herald sun was a reputable paper, it would be reporting on the front page the failure of the federal govt on the vaccine procurement and quarantine failures.
    Also have Morrison on the front page and his secret trip overseas whilst covid runs rampant.

    But lets go with state vic Labor being at fault for controlling the virus, through no fault of their own. Particularly this time around.

    I fully agree and sometimes go in and support comments saying that. It is gettng worse and worse and must have lost a lot of their old audience.
    Their attack on Brett Sutton was very poor.

  12. @DebCansdell

    1h
    Replying to @PatsKarvelas
    I saw a news report during G7 visit that he had visited a local cemetery to pay his respects to Australians buried there.
    It was spin!
    He was doing his own family heritage tour!
    FFS!

  13. Victoria @ #56 Monday, June 21st, 2021 – 9:14 am

    Interesting…..

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    Qld’s CHO Jeanette Young is moving on to become QLD’s Governor from Nov 1.
    QLD’s Premier says “people have stopped me in the street.. and said.. Dr Young is our next Governor.. and I’m delighted to say it’s happening.”
    9:13 AM · Jun 21, 2021·Twitter Web App
    1
    Retweet

    Annastacia has knocked the state LNP off their balance yet again with the appointment which will be widely popular. Captured the public move and choked off any criticism there may have been over the choice of the next Governor.

    And a great reward for a dedicated public servant who has gone above and beyond the call of duty and has taken great responsibility and criticism without complaint while applying scientific knowledge and sound administration principles. What’s not to like?

  14. Bevan Shields:

    Scott Morrison’s office spent weeks planning a G7 side trip to explore his convict family roots while the Prime Minister publicly argued Britain was too risky for Australian travellers.

    Couldn’t they find other useful planning to do? Like sorting out the Vax mess? Or thinking of the future?

  15. He is a piece of work.

    Latika M Bourke
    @latikambourke
    ·
    2h
    Worth listening to that audio for yourself. PM, usually a very smooth communicator, noticeably struggled to get the words out cleanly when trying to defend his Cornish family tracing trip as ‘pretty innocent’ and insisting Australians wouldn’t see it as a double standard.
    Show this thread
    Latika M Bourke
    @latikambourke
    ·
    2h
    Morrison asked about secret side visits to family sites in Cornwall while telling Austns cases in UK are too high for them to travel abroad.

    ‘I wouldn’t describe it like that at all’ (double standards)… ‘pretty innocent’.

    Doesn’t deny PMO organised it weeks in advance.

  16. Amy Remeikis
    @AmyRemeikis
    ·
    1h
    Scott Morrison said he stopped off somewhere which “just happens to be” where his great grandfather was from, while Simon Birmingham described it as “soft diplomacy”.

    Uh huh.

    This is a new line in b.s. What did the bodies in the churchyard care?

  17. Fordham interview. Morrison:

    For people who have known me or have been friends with me over the period of time, they’re entitled to their privacy regardless if people don’t agree with their views. And I certainly don’t agree with Tim’s views on those things at all. I mean, he’s a Sharkies supporter. I agree with him on that, but not on QAnon.

    Because supporting Sharkies is just the same as QAnon??????

  18. Morrison asked about secret side visits to family sites in Cornwall while telling Austns cases in UK are too high for them to travel abroad.

    And Murdoch et al attacked Brett Sutton for travelling to Canberra for a NHMRC meeting with his state counterparts.

    With this sort of touristing, I wonder if Morrison thinks his Pfizer vaccination (or divine protection) has made him invincible to being affected by the virus?

  19. Neil McMahon
    @NeilMcMahon
    ·
    8m
    Under new covid travel rules you can visit your family overseas as long as they’re dead.

  20. I just heard as bit of the Albo – Fran interview on the way to work. Someone must have zapped Albo with a cattle prod. He sounded wide awake and much sharper.A lot more like the Albo we thought we were getting.


  21. lizziesays:
    Monday, June 21, 2021 at 9:47 am
    Neil McMahon
    @NeilMcMahon
    ·
    8m
    Under new covid travel rules you can visit your family overseas as long as they’re dead.

    Neil McMahon assessment is Incorrect because according to Morrison you cannot visit your family in India even when they’re dead. I do not know how many more countries are in that category.

  22. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the Australian journalist 😆
    .

    IrmaGherd (Retired Nurse Thug)✳SyringeSyringe
    @maureenchuck1
    Dr Jeanette Young just explained that the genomics of the female who had been released from HQ was the same as another person who tested in HQ.
    A journalist then asked “How do you know that?”
    7:14 AM · Jun 21, 2021·Twitter Web App
    https://twitter.com/maureenchuck1/status/1406752410052173825
    .
    .

  23. Bert
    Kerry Goulston, who I had lunch with a month ago, is a polarising figure in the medical profession. Despite being a proceduralist, he is certainly a strong supporter of health reform. RH Wombat will have strong views about him one way or another.
    I agree with Kerry on this, if I was designing Medibank/Medicare I would go for per capita GP payments with incentive payments rather than fee for service, which in many ways is an invitation to overservice.
    For specialist proceduralists I would strongly incentivise for staff specialists rather than private VMOs. My experience is that this is the best way to get a public hospital commitment.

    On a historical note the current system predates Whitlam and Medibank. The Gorton reforms of 1969 introduced the concept of “the most common fee”. The AMA’s (it had changed from a branch of the BMA 8 years earlier) acceptance of the common fee with a differential payment to specialists led to a major revolt and AMA membership fell from virtually 100% to a minority of doctors in a few years.

    Of course none of this is relevant, even the most minor of reforms, such as updating the MBS, will be met with a scare campaign by vested interests and fail

  24. One day the Australian voters (or enough of them at least) will see the pattern in Scott Morrison’s behaviour that is blindingly obvious.

    Firstly, he sees high office as a way to pick winners and then reward his mates, creating obligations that he can call in at later dates. He does all this in secret.

    He also rewards himself. Whether it be early vaccination with the Rolls Royce serum, holidays in Hawaii, dinner at Kirribilli, employing old school friends as personal nannies for his wife and kids at taxpayers’ expense, arranging dud vaccines through old Liberal Party pals, or private tours of the Cornwall countryside to place flowers on family graves, the emphasis is on perks of office, enjoyed in secret, contrary to what he is forcing lesser beings (you and me) to do.

    He comes from a police family, and the old family habits of peddling petty influence and doing favours die hard. It must all be done on the Q.T. though. Secrecy is key. That’s part of the thrill of enjoying things that others can’t have; that in fact you have actually prevented them from having.

    Secrecy also helps him get things done. He sees himself as the CEO of Australia, there to cut corners and use his own infallible judgement, always first to benefit himself, and only afterwards arranging for any residual to go to the “customers”: us. And then to pick up his bonus before moving on to the next opportunity.

    Knowing something that others don’t know is a way of keeping power to himself. Keeping secrets puts him “one-up” on his enemies. Answering questions – even if the answer is innocuous – gives power to the person asking the question. So he answers as few questions as possible, keeping the power to himself.

    All in all, Morrison presents as a small time chancer who has clawed himself onto the big stage through a series of near psychopathic cruelties against the weak, routine backstabbings, opportune political assassinations and an ability to breathe through his ears while simultaneously blasting his critics into stunned silence, in awe that so much stream-of-consciousness bullshit and patronising double-speak can come out of one mouth, at one time.

  25. poroti says:
    Monday, June 21, 2021 at 9:52 am
    I just heard as bit of the Albo – Fran interview on the way to work. Someone must have zapped Albo with a cattle prod. He sounded wide awake and much sharper.A lot more like the Albo we thought we were getting.

    He may feel that he now has the upper hand against Morrison.

  26. If Morrison was a Labor leader or chief medical officer in a Labor state/territory government

    The media would be hounding him to resign

    Particular when this is not the first time Morrison ,went on a holiday overseas, while there was an crisis in Australia

  27. Lynchpin @ #38 Monday, June 21st, 2021 – 8:57 am

    For all youse doubters, I happened to hear AM this morning – I don’t usually bother. Albo was on. He smashed it out of the park. Got exactly the right tone. Not whining, but enough grunt and humour to even have Fran on the back foot.

    south, Player One, mundo, are you listening to Lynchpin? Or are you still in that little circle with each other only listening to each other? 😐

  28. Nick Feik
    @NickFeik
    ·
    3m
    Between the Nats old men fighting over the leadership and the PM exploring his family roots during a global pandemic, amid vaccine shortages, this government is … I just despair…

  29. Good luck I say…..

    Sharnelle Vella
    @SharnelleVella
    ·
    38m
    Merlino on vaccines: we need someone to sort out the mess in Canberra. We need more supply. It’s the one job of the commonwealth Goverment – procure and supply vaccines.
    @7NewsMelbourne
    Sharnelle Vella
    @SharnelleVella
    ·
    41m
    Merlino on vaccine and the message he will take to emergency National cabinet: we want to see a sense of urgency. This is a race.
    @7NewsMelbourne

  30. Lizzie

    In a nutshell. They are so bad. Hence why I was triggered yesterday by the front page of the Herald sun displaying a group of people wanting out of Victoria.
    Cos you know the pandemic is only a problem in Victoria.
    Sheesh.

  31. C@tmomma,
    I didn’t listen to AM this morning. I was doing other stuff. Sorry to disappoint.
    I’ve never doubted Albo can be vocal, but message delivery is about recency and frequency!
    Lets see Albo say something that stays in the news, daily and weekly.
    Or better yet, let’s see Albo start setting the agenda in the news!

    I’ll try and tune in tomorrow.

  32. Bushfire

    One day the Australian voters (or enough of them at least) will see the pattern in Scott Morrison’s behaviour that is blindingly obvious.

    How long, O Lord, how long?

  33. GG

    The Herald Sun and sky news together with 3aw and the rest of the media have been working so hard against vic govt and the Victorian people.
    It has been frickin exhausting.

  34. poroti @ #74 Monday, June 21st, 2021 – 9:52 am

    I just heard as bit of the Albo – Fran interview on the way to work. Someone must have zapped Alob with a cattle prod. He sounded wide awake and much sharper.A lot more like the Albo we thought we were getting.

    Knowing when to go in for the kill is very important. The electorate are the Deers grazing on grass and the politicians are the Wolves:

  35. lizzie @ #86 Monday, June 21st, 2021 – 10:17 am

    Nick Feik
    @NickFeik
    ·
    3m
    Between the Nats old men fighting over the leadership and the PM exploring his family roots during a global pandemic, amid vaccine shortages, this government is … I just despair…

    It’s what the Coalition is all about, is what it is. Power and self-serving self indulgence. The rest of us can look after ourselves. Because ‘small government’. Which is essentially an abnegation of responsibility by those who SHOULD be looking after us.

  36. Vic,

    It is always thus and it doesn’t seem to matter much.

    Maybe the issues/deficiencies highlighted by the MSM aren’t the ones of particular importance to voters.

  37. GG

    It is very different what they are doing during the pandemic. It is actually a form of abuse and it is not helping the mental state of the people.
    I have heard it being said countless times from different people.
    They are worn down.
    It is scandalous.

  38. “Bushfire Billsays:
    Monday, June 21, 2021 at 10:06 am

    One day the Australian voters (or enough of them at least) will see the pattern in Scott Morrison’s behaviour that is blindingly obvious.

    Firstly, he sees high office as a way to pick winners and then reward his mates, creating obligations that he can call in at later dates. He does all this in secret.

    He also rewards himself. Whether it be early vaccination with the Rolls Royce serum, holidays in Hawaii, dinner at Kirribilli, employing old school friends as personal nannies for his wife and kids at taxpayers’ expense, arranging dud vaccines through old Liberal Party pals, or private tours of the Cornwall countryside to place flowers on family graves, the emphasis is on perks of office, enjoyed in secret, contrary to what he is forcing lesser beings (you and me) to do.

    He comes from a police family, and the old family habits of peddling petty influence and doing favours die hard. It must all be done on the Q.T. though. Secrecy is key. That’s part of the thrill of enjoying things that others can’t have; that in fact you have actually prevented them from having.

    Secrecy also helps him get things done. He sees himself as the CEO of Australia, there to cut corners and use his own infallible judgement, always first to benefit himself, and only afterwards arranging for any residual to go to the “customers”: us. And then to pick up his bonus before moving on to the next opportunity.

    Knowing something that others don’t know is a way of keeping power to himself. Keeping secrets puts him “one-up” on his enemies. Answering questions – even if the answer is innocuous – gives power to the person asking the question. So he answers as few questions as possible, keeping the power to himself.

    All in all, Morrison presents as a small time chancer who has clawed himself onto the big stage through a series of near psychopathic cruelties against the weak, routine backstabbings, opportune political assassinations and an ability to breathe through his ears while simultaneously blasting his critics into stunned silence, in awe that so much stream-of-consciousness bullshit and patronising double-speak can come out of one mouth, at one time.”

    Are you Alan Ramsey writing from beyond the grave? (that’s meant as a compliment, by the way).

  39. For eg. If this was the vic govt approach, all hell would break lose.

    Exhibit A

    Ash Leahy
    @AshleyLeahy
    ·
    29m
    1pm covid update, during an outbreak?

    Wow, ok.
    Quote Tweet
    Political Alert
    @political_alert
    · 29m
    Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Treasurer Dominic Perrottet will make a major announcement about wages for NSW Government Public Sector workers. NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant will also provide a COVID-19 update, 1pm Sydney #nswpol

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