Essential Research: leadership ratings and COVID management

Downward trends continue for federal leaders’ ratings and perceptions of COVID-19 management at both federal and state level.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which finds Scott Morrison’s approval down one to 57% and disapproval up four to 36%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady on 39% and up one to 36%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 48-28, narrowing from 50-24 last time. The pollster’s regular question on the handling of COVID-19 gives the federal government its weakest result since the beginnings of the series in March last year, with its good rating down five to 53% and its poor rating up six to 24%.

The trends for the leadership ratings are COVID-19 questions are worth noting: the former can be found at BludgerTrack, which no longer registers a recovery for Morrison after his slump in May, but also now records Anthony Albanese in net negative territory for the first time; the latter is shown in the chart of the Essential Research series below.

However, it’s not just the federal government that Essential Research finds to be down from its earlier peaks on COVID-19 management: the Victorian government’s good rating is down 15% amid the state’s latest lockdown to 48% (the federal government is also down 15% in the state, to 42%), and recent results for the other state governments are all down around six points from where they were at the start of the year, ranging from 65% for Queensland to 75% for Western Australia.

The poll also finds 40% view the federal government less favourably than they did a year ago, compared with 25% for more favourably and 35% for the same; 43% of the view that the vaccine rollout is being conducted efficiently (unchanged since April), 67% that is is being done safely (up four) and 54% that it will be effective at stopping the virus (up two); and 55% agreeing the Victorian government is raising valid concerns about the federal government’s vaccine rollout performance compared with 45% for the alternative option that it is seeking to shift the blame.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1104. This being Essential’s first result since the launch of the Australian Polling Council code of conduct, it comes with a separate disclosure statement containing detail of the poll’s response options for voting intention, from which we learn that state and Senate voting intention questions were included even if we may never see the results, and that the poll is weighted for age, gender, location and party identification (a somewhat contentious practice in the latter case).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,336 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings and COVID management”

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  1. We put him there . We are the ones that are responsible,
    —————
    Yep. And why journalists need protection from governments and defamation when reporting and investigating things like potential war crimes. These crimes must be uncovered and fully investigated at the soldier, command and political levels. Including a deep hard look at how society views and remembers wars and warriors past and present and how politicians chose to screw with that for personal gain.

  2. @LordofWentworth tweets

    We have a govt of prison wardens. Don’t dare criticise them, they’ll set govt depts and their media mercenaries on you. Don’t be sick, suffering mental illness, unemployed, on a pension, disabled or seeking refuge. They’ll bear down on you with a rod of iron. We’re just inmates.

  3. Re numbers vaccinated, those in the SMH seem to be a few days behind. According to Covidlive.com.au, 22% of Australians have received at least one shot and 2.6% (about 1/38) are fully vaccinated: https://covidlive.com.au/

    A bit better than the SMH figures but after 110 days not too good. Needs to improve.

    Which ones are more reliable? The SMH doesn’t give a date, but the graph seems to end yesterday: https://www.smh.com.au/national/covid-19-global-vaccine-tracker-and-data-centre-20210128-p56xht.html

  4. I don’t get manchin. He would be the most powerful man in the US if they ditch the filibuster. Not for long – but long enough.

    It would but him in the spotlight though. Nowhere to hide. Nothing and no one to blame for each and every vote.

  5. [‘Christian Porter and his defamation barrister have been ordered to pay legal costs, expected to be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, after losing a court fight with a friend of the woman who accused the federal minister Mr Porter of rape.

    Jo Dyer launched Federal Court proceedings against prominent defamation barrister Sue Chrysanthou, SC, in May to stop her acting for Mr Porter in his defamation case against the ABC.’]

    Poor Porter & Chrysanthou. That’s what you get when attempting to choreograph the legal system. Damn dem no good judges, but without them, we would be up shite creek absent a paddle. Some say, the last bastion.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/christian-porter-defamation-barrister-ordered-to-pay-jo-dyer-s-legal-costs-20210611-p580e2.html

  6. Mavis @ #1149 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 3:13 pm

    I spoke about this relatively new Shingles vaccine a month or so ago. It’s now available in Oz but is not on the free list. It’s apparently more efficacious than Zostavax (which is free for those 70 & above) and those with compromised immune systems:

    [‘In 2016, Zostavax, a live vaccine, was added to the national immunisation program – but only free for those over 70 and take-up has been less than a third. This week, a new vaccine, Shingrix, with better efficacy, hit the Australian market but it is only available privately, around $500 for complete coverage of two doses.

    ‘Professor Macartney said the last time manufacturer GSK applied for Shingrix to be made available on the national program, it was rejected, and supply to Australia was delayed. The cost is prohibitive.

    “It has a lot of promise but it does need to be made available in a way people can access and afford it,” she says. “There is an unmet need, particularly in the over 50s and people with compromised immune systems.”]

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-sat-in-a-dark-room-for-six-weeks-vaccine-hope-for-australia-s-fastest-growing-disease-20210611-p5809n.html

    The subunit vaccine is much more effective in preventing recurrence of shingles, particularly in those older than 70. There is excellent data on the cost efficiancy of this – mainly from the key trials published in the New England Journal of Medicine about 5 years ago. The lead author was Tony Cunningham who heads the Millenium Institute at Westmead. The cost is about $70 for a shot. It is definately worth it.

  7. Herald Sun 11/06
    Dumped Labor MP Adem Somyurek has launched defamation proceedings against the Nine Network, The Age and investigative reporter Nick McKenzie.

    Mr Somyurek is suing over a 60 Minutes program and subsequent newspaper articles that appeared in The Age that accused him of branch stacking and illegal criminal activity.
    ________________
    Seems to be catching. Both sides are using defamation proceedings to try and get them out of the shit.

  8. “Old Joe Machin is a Tory, only interested in his reelection – the Dems should accept this as a given”

    The first part is definitely true. WV does not elect Democrats, even when they call themselves Democrats. The second part is totally false as it is well documented that Manchin is retiring at the next election.

  9. More to the point, Machin has stated that he would be in favour not of removing the filibuster, but of reforming it to bring it back to the point where it actually meant standing on your feet all day.

  10. Taylormadesays:
    Friday, June 11, 2021 at 8:37 pm

    Herald Sun 11/06
    Dumped Labor MP Adem Somyurek has launched defamation proceedings against the Nine Network, The Age and investigative reporter Nick McKenzie.

    Mr Somyurek is suing over a 60 Minutes program and subsequent newspaper articles that appeared in The Age that accused him of branch stacking and illegal criminal activity.
    ________________
    Seems to be catching. Both sides are using defamation proceedings to try and get them out of the shit.

    How many Lib/Nats have been kicked out of their Party after their wrong doing has been exposed?

  11. rhwombat:

    Friday, June 11, 2021 at 8:29 pm

    Thanks. I’m taking an immunosuppressive drug – Taltz. I’ve been told that to safely take Zostavax, I’d need to go off it for two months preceding taking it, and two months thereafter, as it’s a live vaccine, but so is I think Shingrix. I think I’ll take my chances of not getting shingles. What, without intending to put you on the spot, do you think?

  12. ‘No other VC recipient has ever been put under the same scrutiny as BRS.’
    ______________________________________________
    Eight of them got enough scrutiny to lose their’s.

  13. Mavis @ #781 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 8:18 pm

    Old Joe Machin is a Tory, only interested in his reelection – the Dems should accept this as a given.

    No, he’s a cunning politician trying to save a Senate seat in a deeply Republican state that went for Donald Trump by 30 points in the 2020 election. he may actually be saving the Democrats from themselves.

  14. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #794 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 8:43 pm

    Taylormadesays:
    Friday, June 11, 2021 at 8:37 pm

    Herald Sun 11/06
    Dumped Labor MP Adem Somyurek has launched defamation proceedings against the Nine Network, The Age and investigative reporter Nick McKenzie.

    Mr Somyurek is suing over a 60 Minutes program and subsequent newspaper articles that appeared in The Age that accused him of branch stacking and illegal criminal activity.
    ________________
    Seems to be catching. Both sides are using defamation proceedings to try and get them out of the shit.

    How many Lib/Nats have been kicked out of their Party after their wrong doing has been exposed?

    Bastiaan?

  15. BK
    “ You couldn’t say Porter and his expensive lawyers have played blinders, could you?”

    No. Virtually every judgement in the case has gone against them. Have you read the judgement on costs? Its pretty scathing

  16. BW,

    The fact that no one has heard about them that confirms that BRS has experience d more scrutiny.

  17. Roy Orbison:

    [‘The second part is totally false as it is well documented that Manchin is retiring at the next election.’]

    If that be true, why is he being so disruptive to Biden’s agenda? Perhaps he’s using power for power’s sake or maybe it’s the filibuster rules? In any event, he’s a pain in the posterior, his retirement will not come too soon.

  18. C@t
    “No, he’s a cunning politician trying to save a Senate seat in a deeply Republican state that went for Donald Trump by 30 points in the 2020 election. he may actually be saving the Democrats from themselves.”

    Exactly right. The alternative to Manchin would be a Trumpian Republican. From that perspective, Manchin is by far the lesser of two evils.

    Having said that, I suspect Manchin will lose his Senate seat next time round. He only just scraped in last time (2018), and WV hasn’t gotten any friendlier.

  19. Roy Orbison
    “The second part is totally false as it is well documented that Manchin is retiring at the next election.”

    I wasn’t aware of this. (Not saying you’re wrong, BTW; I just haven’t heard that this decision is definite.)

  20. Outsider @ #1171 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 4:45 pm

    I have done maybe a dozen walks in SW Tasmania over the years and you simply must carry the gear you need for the worst weather you can contemplate – a quality 3 season tent (at the minimum), a good down sleeping bag, proper hiking boots, and quality Goretex (or equivalent) wet weather gear and gloves. Plus a couple of polar fleece jumpers, a set of thermals and a beanie!

    I too have seen people on the Overland Track in sneakers and puffer jackets! But the ones I most worried about were the 2 young Canadians heading up into the Western Arthurs from the West Portal end in denim jeans and flannelette shirts…

    Standard kit for kiwi climbers in the 70’s was a Japara (oiled canvas) jacket over a “Swandown” (thick wool) shirt (vast choice of either red or blue – both with black “tartan” stripes), over woolen long johns ( electric blue or hot pink) with big canvas gaiters. They always looked like ostriches while traversing glaciers “in coils” (ie roped together) to avoid big, hungry slots. In their packs were usually (at least) a couple of Monteith’s stubbies, and a large jar of jelly beans. Bill Denz & Andy Smith put up the routes on the Caroline face of Cook and the south face of Aspiring that way. They were hardmen, but they all died young.

  21. ‘Greensborough Growler says:
    Friday, June 11, 2021 at 9:03 pm

    BW,

    The fact that no one has heard about them that confirms that BRS has experience d more scrutiny.’
    ___________________________________________
    So? The Victoria Cross has been around for a long time.

  22. Cat,

    I’d like to think that Machin has scruples, has the Dems best interests at heart but I have my doubts.
    Anyway, I’m off.

  23. C@t

    If the Democrats don’t do something about the filibuster they’re going to suffer the same attacks – “useless, ineffective”… Manchin needs to give up and at least concede reform of the filibuster. Otherwise the Dems are going to lose big time in the midterms owing to people getting disillusioned and not showing up. There are other Senate spots the Dems can win.

  24. BK

    We will know Porter is actually paying his own legal costs himself if he starts a GoFundMe page entitled “Help a Christian” on some far right religious group pages.

  25. BW
    “ Most of the ‘scrutiny’ for BRS has been hagiography by politicians seeking to ride his VC to votes.”

    On both BRS and CP’s legal actions, perhaps I have read too much Greek history and philosophy, but the word “hubris” does come to mind.

  26. ”Greensborough Growler says:
    Friday, June 11, 2021 at 9:13 pm

    BW,

    I’ve seen Zulu and I used to live in Kingsbury.

    What about you?’
    ________________________
    I was born and bred in Rorke’s Drift.

  27. Someone has a plan to open up, just not us…

    ‘European Union countries agreed on Friday to an easing of travel restrictions over summer that will allow fully vaccinated tourists to avoid tests or quarantines and broaden the list of EU regions from which it is safe to travel.

    Ambassadors from the 27 EU member states approved a modified European Commission proposal that people who have been fully vaccinated for 14 days should be able to travel freely from one EU country to another, current EU president Portugal said.

    Restrictions for other travellers should be based on the degree to which the country they are coming from has COVID-19 infections under control.

    Just over a quarter of EU adults are now fully vaccinated.’

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-countries-clear-plan-ease-tourism-over-summer-diplomats-2021-06-11/?taid=60c3448b35ede90001f5ee68&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

  28. Suspended hotel quarantine boss resigns

    Victorian quarantine hotel boss Matiu Bush is under investigation for infection control breaches and the hiring of two fitness trainers.

  29. ‘Socrates says:
    Friday, June 11, 2021 at 9:17 pm

    BW
    “ Most of the ‘scrutiny’ for BRS has been hagiography by politicians seeking to ride his VC to votes.”

    On both BRS and CP’s legal actions, perhaps I have read too much Greek history and philosophy, but the word “hubris” does come to mind.’
    ________________________
    You would have been forgiven for thinking that an ex AG might have had better judgement.
    In relation to BRS, it remains to be seen.

  30. Socrates

    The word hubris reminds me of a scene from a BBC scifi mini series “voyage to the planets”. About a crew and a huge spaceship doing a tour of the solar system. Mission control sent them on a flypast of an asteroid. Only it wasn’t an asteroid, it was a binary, so mission control got the distance wrong.. The ship barely scraped past.

    The crew named the binary (rotating each other) “hubris” and “catastrophe”.

  31. Manchin opposing the John Lewis Voting Rights Bill will, unless he changes course, cost the Democrats more seats than if they were to retain the West Virginia US Senate seat he currently holds because of it (which they won`t anyway).

    Same with DC statehood.

  32. Mavis @ #1269 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 8:49 pm

    rhwombat:

    Friday, June 11, 2021 at 8:29 pm

    Thanks. I’m taking an immunosuppressive drug – Taltz. I’ve been told that to safely take Zostavax, I’d need to go off it for two months preceding taking it, and two months thereafter, as it’s a live vaccine, but so is I think Shingrix. I think I’ll take my chances of not getting shingles. What, without intending to put you on the spot, do you think?

    Shingrix is a subumit vaccine (E glycoprotein), not a live vaccine, but does contain an adjuvent which may interact with anti IL-17 monoclonals like Taltz. Despite that, the chance of significant reactivation of zoster ( and subsequent post-herpetic neuralgia) with Taltz is of the order of 5-10% per annum – which is quite high. I would suggest the Shingrix – if you can get it.

  33. boerwar

    You would have been forgiven for thinking that an ex AG might have had better judgement.

    If you saw him in action before he went to ‘Canbra’ you wouldn’t be so surprised. While he was still over in WA Christian was the person who showed me the meaning of the then fairly new term FIGJAM 🙂

  34. ‘Greensborough Growler says:
    Friday, June 11, 2021 at 9:23 pm

    BW,

    So you’re a real afficianado of Michael Caine Movies?’
    ____________________________
    Only the Impish ones.

  35. Paddy Palin and his pals scampered all over the budawangs and beyond on Dunlop volleys, stubby shorts and not much else.

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