Newspoll: 50-50

A steady set of numbers on voting intention from Newspoll, with Scott Morrison taking a knock on personal approval.

As reported in The Australian, the latest Newspoll has the Coalition and Labor tied on two-party preferred after four polls with Labor in front, most recently by 51-49. However, this is not reflected by appreciable movement on the primary vote, on which the Coalition and Labor are steady at 41% and 36% with the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation up one to 3%.

On the personal ratings, Scott Morrison has lost the ground he recovered over the past two polls, being down four on approval to 54% and up five on disapproval to 43%, leaving him with his weakest net approval rating since the onset of COVID-19. Anthony Albanese has softened slightly from what were already his weakest ratings since he became leader, being down one on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 47%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-30 to 53-32.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1516.

UPDATE: The Australian also has a piece from Campbell White of YouGov about the Australian Polling Council’s new code of conduct, which “will require polling companies to provide more information about how they obtain their samples, how they analyse their data and how they structure their questionnaires”. I had a piece of my own on the subject in Crikey last Thursday — both of the above are paywalled.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,129 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  6. Goodes was an outstanding player and always extremely fair. In fact prior to 2013 he was one of those players most enjoyed watching regardless of who they supported.

    The booing only started after he dared to fall out racist rubbish from from Collingwood fans who have form on this issue.

    I was amused and disgusted when many tried to claim it was “because he was a dirty player” (simply not true. You don’t win two Brownlow medals if you’re a dirty player) or because “he was a flog” (presumably for daring to stand up for racism).

    Have met him a few times through business contacts and he’s a quality, intelligent and talented man. He’s achieved more on life than most people. Particularly some of the overweight slobs who hurled abuse at him from the comfort of the grand stand 100 metres away.

  7. The aircrew didn’t get off the plane, they just did a quick refuel and turned around with 12 other passengers,” she told ABC Radio Melbourne a short time ago. “The only thing we haven’t run to ground in its entirety is the cleaners and the restocking: have they been tested and is there any exposure there?”

    Those who clean the planes are not government staff overseen by Ms Cassar’s department.
    ________________
    It will be everyone else’s fault but hers, and she still
    hasn’t apologised for her bullshit story about the nebulizer.

  9. It will be everyone else’s fault but hers, and she still
    hasn’t apologised for her bullshit story about the nebulizer.

    ____________________________

    Are you making a case that she fits in with the Liberal Party?

  11. Ok monetary theory people.

    It is generally agreed that high-powered money has value because the govt can lock you up if you don’t pay your taxes, and which you must pay in a currency of their choosing.

    What does this say about the value of cryptocurrencies in the face of ransomeware attacks?

  12. Couple of Vic Covid Outbreak Maps – You want to know how well we handle outbreaks, we can do stuff that other countries will only ever dream of:
    Mike Honey Syringe
    @Mike_Honey_
    ·
    9h
    Victorian outbreak paths update for 8 June 2021:

    Inspired by the very informative work of
    @dbRaevn
    , an interactive dataviz of the current Victorian outbreak paths.
    Interactive dataviz (multiple pages/styles), data and source code all available here:

    And the DbRaevn
    dbRaevn
    @dbRaevn
    ·
    10h
    Victorian Outbreak Map – 8th June 2021
    #COVID19Vic #Covid19VicData

  14. Dandy Murray @ #1116 Tuesday, June 8th, 2021 – 10:00 pm

    Ok monetary theory people.

    It is generally agreed that high-powered money has value because the govt can lock you up if you don’t pay your taxes, and which you must pay in a currency of their choosing.

    I thought the general agreement was that fiat currency has value because we all (mostly) agree it does?

    The threat of incarceration over fiat-denominated tax liability seems a second-order concern, to the extent that if we all collectively decided to renege on our understanding that their preferred fiat money is valuable, the government can’t actually lock everybody up.

    What does this say about the value of cryptocurrencies in the face of ransomeware attacks?

    Like any other non-fiat object, its value in fiat currency is however much the highest bidder is willing to pay for it?

    And also, that cryptocurrencies are a shitty choice for demanding ransoms because in general a cryptocurrency will create a public record of every transaction, and that record lives forever. It’s only a matter of time before the authorities learn how to follow it back to somewhere identifiable when the recipient tries to turn it into tangible goods or fiat currency.

  15. Steve777:

    There might be snow on the Southern Highlands (SW of Sydney, inland from the Illawarra, about 500-800 metres above sea level), although conditions more favour West of the Great Divide.

    Washington DC declares “snow days” – Canberra (etc.) should too.

  16. Back in bed at the hotel, so phone back on.
    So, to your question about cryptocurrency value, Dandy Murray, I’d guess, since the FBI stole back the Bitcoin from the Russian ransomware hostage takers of that oil pipeline in America, it’s value has just got a lot less. 🙂
    I’m so glad America is back on the block under Joe Biden.

  17. I watched Bolt tonight bemoaning the lack of conservative commentators on TV and radio, with special mention of 2GB’s ratings’ slide since Jones left, and Aunty for “not having one conservative person on it”. He even claimed that Waleed on “The Project” is a lefty. Poor Andy’s feeling quite lonely, with Sky’s ratings heading south. Not a mention though of Murdoch’s monopoly on print media.

  18. Crypto is not a currency and never will be. The day will come when governments create digital currencies but they will be an extension of existing currencies.

  20. And also, that cryptocurrencies are a shitty choice for demanding ransoms because in general a cryptocurrency will create a public record of every transaction, and that record lives forever. It’s only a matter of time before the authorities learn how to follow it back to somewhere identifiable when the recipient tries to turn it into tangible goods or fiat currency.

    Case in point: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/department-justice-seizes-23-million-cryptocurrency-paid-ransomware-extortionists-darkside

  21. OC:

    I came across an interesting change just now. The en-passant appendicectomy – taking it out while you are there now attracts a reduced MBS fee of $60 – that should be low enough to stop the cowboys.

    Why not get rid of it all together? – there is one situation I know of where it is justified – when making an artificial bladder the appendix is taken out because if appendicitis occurs later it is impossible to get to because of the new bladder being in the way

    I suppose activity based costing is the general solution, but in this case why isn’t the interim solution to incorporate the actual cost of “en-passant appendicectomy” in the bladder making procedure. If for some reason the appendix is already gone the urologist gets a windfall. I am of course assuming the urologist can do it as general surgery (implied by your comment that it nets an extra $60). If the appendectomy is medically required we shouldn’t be paying anyone only $60 for it since we don’t want Dr Nick anywhere near patients needing a new bladder.

    I suppose there could be a trick whereby two separate surgeries performed – appendectomy first and new bladder four weeks later, surprisingly finding a lack of spontaneous regeneration of the appendix, or even bring in an extra surgeon to remove the appendix: what’s a busy urologist to do when finding some bastard general surgeon has sneaked into theatre and made off with the appendix the urologist had fully intended to resect. Strike em all off!

  23. OC:

    In low community incidence the spread is stochastic unless there is a super spreader event

    So – a Hawkes process then (or something similar with a self excitation phase…)

  24. This is a long, thoughtful article from Vanity Fair, arguing the “Lab Leak Hypothesis” might very well be correct, but also making the point that, no matter how plausible it may be, since it’s also one of Trump’s pet theories, that makes it fatally flawed to the progressive side of politics, who for tribal reasons will not have a bar of anything Trump believes.

    And then there’s the fact that it was the American government that funded at least some of the research at Wuhan…

    … in the wake of the Lancet statement and under the cloud of Donald Trump’s toxic racism, which contributed to an alarming wave of anti-Asian violence in the U.S., one possible answer to this all-important question remained largely off-limits until the spring of 2021.

    Behind closed doors, however, national security and public health experts and officials across a range of departments in the executive branch were locked in high-stakes battles over what could and couldn’t be investigated and made public.

    A months long Vanity Fair investigation … found that conflicts of interest, stemming in part from large government grants supporting controversial virology research, hampered the U.S. investigation into COVID-19’s origin at every step.

    In one State Department meeting, officials seeking to demand transparency from the Chinese government say they were explicitly told by colleagues not to explore the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s gain-of-function research, because it would bring unwelcome attention to U.S. government funding of it.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins

    Interesting read.

  25. China has reached almost 800 million shots.
    America has reached 300 million shots.
    India is at 230 million shots.

    Meanwhile Australia – 1.54%

  26. Bushfire Billsays:
    Wednesday, June 9, 2021 at 12:52 am

    Donald Trump wants China to pay for the whole Covid thing when it should be inept countries who can’t protect it’s own citizens.

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