As reported in The Australian, the latest Newspoll has the Coalition and Labor tied on two-party preferred after four polls with Labor in front, most recently by 51-49. However, this is not reflected by appreciable movement on the primary vote, on which the Coalition and Labor are steady at 41% and 36% with the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation up one to 3%.
On the personal ratings, Scott Morrison has lost the ground he recovered over the past two polls, being down four on approval to 54% and up five on disapproval to 43%, leaving him with his weakest net approval rating since the onset of COVID-19. Anthony Albanese has softened slightly from what were already his weakest ratings since he became leader, being down one on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 47%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-30 to 53-32.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1516.
UPDATE: The Australian also has a piece from Campbell White of YouGov about the Australian Polling Council’s new code of conduct, which “will require polling companies to provide more information about how they obtain their samples, how they analyse their data and how they structure their questionnaires”. I had a piece of my own on the subject in Crikey last Thursday — both of the above are paywalled.
frednk says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 9:38 pm
China seems to be working for the people of China, and because of that, they are happy with the way things going.
But carry on your anti-China rhetoric. If your entire argument is because you can’t vote, then you need to realise China’s history, and deal with it. Every country is different. Trying to force China to become a Democratic government is not and will not going to happen anytime soon, and also just because the west feels threatened by China, so they try and force their will on China, their version of corrupted Democratic politics.
Even if you are successful, Democratic politics is corrupted – just look at Australia.
Deal with it.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/jun/05/naomi-wolf-banned-twitter-spreading-vaccine-myths
Lol! Saw this one BW posted from previous thread. 🙂
“Another said: “Congratulations to naomi wolf who is i think the first person to be banned from here for being too stupid.””
And on the Medicare rebates?? FFS sake this Govt are just arse-holes that think they are untouchable. 🙁
Dutton and Frydenberg will be working the numbers as we speak…
The Libs had no policies at the last election except tax cuts. Anything else was a free for all with no other policies and no questions asked about any either by a compliant media.
frednk,
China is similar to the US.
They have the Primaries likethe US, but then they don’t have to worry about an election.
Bit of a nothing poll on the primary vote numbers. Can’t see anyone switching from the Greens to PHON, so that would be down to the particular sample being slightly more “PHON friendly” I’d say.
Labor would be concerned that they’ve gone back on the TPP even when Morrison’s popularity has declined. Would have thought they’d be some shift to Labor after the last couple of weeks.
Zerlo
Xi has shown he believes he can operate outside the world order. The world order is going to respond.
China will suffer.
America got rid of Trump. China does not have a system to rid itself of Xi.
It really is that simple and very very unfortunate for all.
“The Libs had no policies at the last election except tax cuts.”
And now they think its a good idea to hit oldies, people to who medical care is important, in the hip pocket? Arrogant bastards.
And the Greens move up or down barely as always.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 9:51 pm
frednk,
China is similar to the US.
They have the Primaries like the US, but then they don’t have to worry about an election.
Ya a one party state does save a little hassle.
Imacca
Oldies are their base and oldies should know better regarding the history of Medicare and the Coalition.
That poll is Angry Ant tucker.
Steve,
If the Greens are getting around 11-12 primary nationally at the time of the next election, like they have been in polling recently, that will mean there will be a number of seats that will be a very real chance of going Green.
GM
Then there are the facts.
The Greens are flatlining at around 10% – check the sidebar.
They have been flogged in election after election for the past 18 months.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/05/cautious-or-craven-the-saga-of-four-corners-program-on-morrison-and-qanon-has-laid-bare-fractures-within-the-abc
“Exactly why Anderson considered the program not ready has not been revealed, but it seems the key issue was that Morrison had not responded to questions sent to his office, despite efforts from the Four Corners team.”
So when it is aired, they can have a disclaimer like “Despite the extraordinary efforts of 4Corners and the ABC the PM has refused to respond to questions on this matter.”
PM will at least fail the pub test on this, and QAnon subscribing nuttbaggers want be changing their votes anyway.
imacca
I blame Satan.
boerwar @ #16 Sunday, June 6th, 2021 – 8:07 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGKAaPM72UY
Boerwar,
The Greens did exceptionally well in the recent ACT Election, which was held much less than 18 months ago. They also did very well in the Queensland Election when they toppled Jackie Trad. It’s been a great 18 months electorally for the Greens.
They toppled Trad with the assistance of social media bullying and LNP support.
Green Machine @ #13 Sunday, June 6th, 2021 – 9:59 pm
Lol. Someone can’t do simple arithmetic.
When did the Greens last knock off a Liberal?
imacca @ #2 Sunday, June 6th, 2021 – 9:48 pm
That’s what happens when you brazenly take control of the Treasury for party political purposes, plus have a media ecosphere that is either intimidated by you…because you control the purse strings, or is controlled by your ideological confreres.
The Toorak Toff @ #21 Sunday, June 6th, 2021 – 10:17 pm
Is that how Adam Bandt got his seat?
In state politics, maybe in Queensland.
50-50 to me says that the Coalition’s already running tax scare about Labor might have been the jigger under the saddle for some.
‘Green Machine says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 10:09 pm
Boerwar,
The Greens did exceptionally well in the recent ACT Election, which was held much less than 18 months ago. They also did very well in the Queensland Election when they toppled Jackie Trad. It’s been a great 18 months electorally for the Greens.’
—————————————-
Outliers.
C@tmomma @ #24 Sunday, June 6th, 2021 – 10:20 pm
Seems more like noise/rounding in the Greens/PHON numbers?
Adam Bandt succeeded a retiring Labor member (Lindsay Tanner)
Versus the Liberals, the seat is safe Labor IIRC.
I would have thought that even the armchair “experts” would be able to understand that an increased Greens primary vote since the last election would result in Green friendly seats that are already close coming very much into play. Apparently that’s a bit beyond their comprehension though.
The Toorak Toff,
Maiwar (QLD) and Prahran (Vic) from the Libs, Ballina (NSW) from the Nats.
This poll says what my 85 year old mother told me tonight.
It’s almost impossible to believe, she said, but people will vote this lot back in..
She’s right.
Dont know about Maiwar, but Prahran would have gone to Labor if the Greens hadn’t got there. So no net gain for the good guys.
Mundo
Of course they will. They voted Clownshoes Abbott in for Christs sake.
The Toorak Toff says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 10:17 pm
“When did the Greens last knock off a Liberal?”
We had the “Liberals for Forests” if that counts for Greenish.
Polling seems to have settled into a pattern of 50/50, give or take a point or two, with primaries for the two majors of about 38-40 for the Coalition, and 35-38 for the ALP, with 8-10 for the Greens. This suggests that the coming election will be yet another close one, with neither party likely to get more than about 80 seats, or fewer than 65. Of course, events may well push the needle one way or another, but the numbers over the last six months suggest that the election due in the next 12 months will end up in that range, much like every election over the last 25 years (apart from 2007 & 2013).
Labor needs to win a net 7-8 seats to win government, something very do-able against an eight-year-old government, and with around 20 Coalition seats held by margins under 5%. To my mind, the Coalition remains slight favourites, given their incumbency and the historical tendency of Australian voters to return conservative governments for one term too many, but it will be close, and far too close to write off Labor’s chances just yet.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/06/06/newspoll-50-50-21/#comment-3621673
In 2014 the Greens beat the Liberals but the Liberals narrowly won the 2PP contest against the ALP, so no the ALP would not have got there in 2014.
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2014-state-election
The Greens took two seats off both the Libs and Labor in the ACT 2020 election, so that is four for the women and men of good heart and mind.
Didn’t some Labor pissant mention something about arrogance previously, when a party thinks they somehow own a seat and it is not actually the voters who decide who gets in?
With a base seemingly largely comprised of the oldies, who have been enduring the wonders of the aged care system through a pandemic, a la Colbeck, Smoko and Co, you do wonder if the Turkeys will keep voting for bigger LNP Christmas roasts…. unfortunately the evidence for the older cohorts to become blindly fixated and impervious to evidence that they’re doing the wrong thing if they want a different outcome, is too often reinforced even here on PB.
I go away for a day and everybody is still calling everybody else “racist”, “anti-semite”, “sinophobe”, “misogynist” etc. etc.
Aren’t there some other insults youse can hurl at each other for a change, FFS?
liberals will still with due to outside influences.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/the-delta-variant-covid-mutation-could-devastate-the-world-again/news-story/b9cf51cdb87b15b02d59c4d140b83729
It should also be a stark warning to those who have plans to “open up” this country prematurely. Let it be proven first that we do have herd immunity. That is herd immunity to the Delta strain.
We may need to re-vaccinate people who have had the AZ jab, before we can be sure.
UK covid is now rebounding.. look at the graph.
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/united-kingdom/
And remember the UK has given enough doses to vaccinate over 50% of its population, and more than that if you consider one dose.
As I said before, this may well be a real world test of which vaccines give herd immunity against the Delta strain, and which don’t.
Seems to me each time we find a practical vaccine the gap in infections it brings about is filled by a new mutation, one even harder to vaccinate against.
As long as this virus is lethal we’ll keep trying. But once a benign mutation comes along that doesn’t kill too many, hence making developing a new vaccine not quite so urgent (or not urgent at all), humanity and SARS-2 will probably learn to coexist.
It’s the way with many viruses: each side – virus and host – comes to adapt, and we both get on OK after that.
We’re probably going to have to accept a certain fatality rate in our dealings with SARS-2, just as we do with many hazards in life – viral, social, medical, criminal, elemental and incidental.
When I get a flu shot it’s with the understanding that it’s only 60% likely to prevent me from getting infected. The other 40% might kill me if I get a bad dose. If I have a general anesthetic the anesthetist will warn me I might not wake up. When I get in my car to drive it I’m counting on not being run into by a drunk driver down the street.
By all means develop a vaccine (I got my first AZ dose a few days ago). Let’s not forget the possibility that a drug treatment might prove effective (there are already several candidates under development). But we just can’t keep locking ourselves down forever. There will have to be some kind of decision day when the rewards of opening up outweigh the risk of catching the future, obviously less deadly version of COVID.
I seriously doubt whether we can eliminate it.
“ I saw the messages at pastor’s conferences grow more incendiary and urgent, and heard the supremacist dog whistles become louder and more frequent.”
Sobering insights about evangelicals from someone on the inside .
https://johnpavlovitz.com/2021/06/05/im-a-christian-pastor-evangelicals-have-to-be-defeated-in-2022/
BB
The way to win is to reduce the rate of global infection. That reduces the rate at which the virus mutates and that means we stay ahead of it. Worldwide eradication is not impossible, its just very difficult and the difficulty lies not in the physics and biology but in the politics.
More realistic is very low levels of the virus in some wealthier parts of the world brought on by vaccine driven herd immunity and (sadly) being fed by reservoirs of the virus in poorer parts of the world.
Also possible is we stuff up and open our borders before we have sufficient herd immunity and we see what is going on in the UK now – only it gets far worse.
One good thing is that covid brought forward a lot of science. We now know how to make good vaccines, fast. We now know how well mRNA vaccines work (and there’s also protein subunit ones). This is going to unlock progress on other diseases and give us a better chance against the next superbug.
BB
Just specifically on that point of “locking ourselves up forever”. Two things.
First of all, there’s a lot of moral panic over closed borders. The fact is that the country actually functions quite well with closed borders. In fact there are good accidental side effects. Those include the fact that when it comes to overseas tourism, we actually normally spend more overseas than incoming tourists spend here. Now we’re spending that money here. Another good accidental side effect is that closing our borders has shone the light on practices that should never have been allowed in the first place – importing skilled workers rather than training and importing cheap slave workers in industries where we should be paying decent wages. Isolation also encourages more “made here” thinking. Not that closed borders prevents trade of physical goods anyhow.
Secondly, if you tally all the people who have a good reason to fly in and out of this country. We’re talking families split between countries, some necessary business/work travel (like actors) and a few other minor cases, we actually have the capability to provide all of these people with decent quarantine facilities. Could we do this for years? Of course we could. Alan Joyce can fuck himself as far as I’m concerned.
So, no. And I’m saying this as someone who loves to fly all over the world. It can wait.
The key point about opening borders is BB, that there’s a difference between having herd immunity, and not having it. And we need to have good evidence we have herd immunity before taking any stupid risks that might import the Delta strain, or worse. It takes only one. Ipso we don’t do stupid things like allowing home isolation. It only takes one belligerent/stupid person.
If we don’t have herd immunity, there won’t be a few sporadic small clusters here and there. Rather, the virus will quickly take hold and spread uncontrollably. Our trace and isolate system will fall over, as it has done so before. In any case, if you take the word of Gladys, our trace and isolate system will be gutted on account of not publishing the public health alerts and case data anymore. The only way you can get away with that, is genuine herd immunity to start with. I won’t go into the kind of self-reinforcing bubble that Gladys, her advisers, much of the Federal Health bureaucracy live in.
If you do have genuine herd immunity then its all over practically speaking for the virus. You bring in someone with the wrong strain then it starts a small cluster and that fizzles. Occasionally someone gets sick, or dies. That’s life. We accept that. Just not on a mass scale. With genuine herd immunity we still need some sensible measures, such as testing of incoming people and insisting that arrivals are vaccinated. But, this will indeed see “normality”.
My problem BB, is that the information we need, to know we have genuine herd immunity isn’t here yet. Its coming in the next few months. And we need to be absolutely sure of what we are doing, not make stupid, dangerous political decisions. And when the science does come in, having genuine herd immunity may mean things like everyone that has had AZ has the opportunity for a booster with Pfizer or Moderna (both of which will be updated and improved by early next year). This is certainly my personal strategy. If we have to wait until the end of 2022, then so be it. What we need in the mean time is better, fit for purpose, expanded quarantine.
Green Machine says:
Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 9:51 pm
Labor would be concerned that they’ve gone back on the TPP even when Morrison’s popularity has declined. Would have thought they’d be some shift to Labor after the last couple of weeks.
————
The greens who lost 1% , the reason why Labor lost 1% in the 2pp?
The big point which Newsltd and other lib/nats propaganda media units are deliberately ignoring
There still has been no budget bounce after a month since the budget
It’s a low vote for the Greens at this stage of the electoral cycle, when usually they’re polling 16% or higher, but that might just reflect changes in methodology.
Scott
Statistically a 1% move is pretty meh. A couple more in the same direction however and we may have a trend, one that is not your friend.
Scotts at 6:48 am
I think the traditional big budget bounce was dead buried and cremated a few years back.
poroti says:
Monday, June 7, 2021 at 6:54 am
Scott
The greens who lost 1% , the reason why Labor lost 1% in the 2pp?
Statistically a 1% move is pretty meh. A couple more in the same direction however and we may have a trend, one that is not your friend.l
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I agree
Was just baiting green machine, why Labor’s 2pp went down