Essential Research: leadership ratings and COVID management

Downward trends continue for federal leaders’ ratings and perceptions of COVID-19 management at both federal and state level.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which finds Scott Morrison’s approval down one to 57% and disapproval up four to 36%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady on 39% and up one to 36%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 48-28, narrowing from 50-24 last time. The pollster’s regular question on the handling of COVID-19 gives the federal government its weakest result since the beginnings of the series in March last year, with its good rating down five to 53% and its poor rating up six to 24%.

The trends for the leadership ratings are COVID-19 questions are worth noting: the former can be found at BludgerTrack, which no longer registers a recovery for Morrison after his slump in May, but also now records Anthony Albanese in net negative territory for the first time; the latter is shown in the chart of the Essential Research series below.

However, it’s not just the federal government that Essential Research finds to be down from its earlier peaks on COVID-19 management: the Victorian government’s good rating is down 15% amid the state’s latest lockdown to 48% (the federal government is also down 15% in the state, to 42%), and recent results for the other state governments are all down around six points from where they were at the start of the year, ranging from 65% for Queensland to 75% for Western Australia.

The poll also finds 40% view the federal government less favourably than they did a year ago, compared with 25% for more favourably and 35% for the same; 43% of the view that the vaccine rollout is being conducted efficiently (unchanged since April), 67% that is is being done safely (up four) and 54% that it will be effective at stopping the virus (up two); and 55% agreeing the Victorian government is raising valid concerns about the federal government’s vaccine rollout performance compared with 45% for the alternative option that it is seeking to shift the blame.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1104. This being Essential’s first result since the launch of the Australian Polling Council code of conduct, it comes with a separate disclosure statement containing detail of the poll’s response options for voting intention, from which we learn that state and Senate voting intention questions were included even if we may never see the results, and that the poll is weighted for age, gender, location and party identification (a somewhat contentious practice in the latter case).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,336 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings and COVID management”

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  4. BRS..
    Former special forces soldier Ben Roberts-Smith has told his Federal Court defamation trial that being awarded the Victoria Cross “put a target on my back” and left him open to spite-fuelled attacks from other soldiers.

    All this backgrounding to why I’m a good fella & wouldn’t do anything wrong….100% irrelevant, only the facts & truth matter
    Also looks like boys do cry.

  5. To build up government run services like underground cable trenches for NBN and power to service regional communities and decentralise Australia Queensland is a good place to start. The most decentralised state in the country.

    Gamers are not the only home office people that can work anywhere in the world.

    Our country towns are great attractions for millionaires around the world. Beautiful places to live. Accessible anywhere in the world. See Byron Bay for an example of this attraction.

    There are many examples where Australia can grow regional villages into town and towns into cities. It doesn’t take much government infrastructure set up to achieve. The millionaires will take the private investment risk lobbying government when they require increased services for a new idea.

    The limits are water and general climate capacity to support increased population.

    As for Sydney. It’s going the European route. Clover Moore stuffed the spivocrasy project big time. All those European bike lanes and assigned low income rent controlled housing in new developments.

    Like Melbourne Sydney is going to have a high density population.
    High Speed rail will become a reality as the density increases.
    Those leafy suburbs will also get their underground power cables and Fibre Optic Cables.

    Travelling into the CBD is going to be a thing of the past in fact travelling to a major hub in regions of the city will become things of the past soon too. The Liberals have been forced into looking at Sydney Parramatta and Penrith as CBD’s.

    It’s going to get worse for them than that as world wide business looks at Australia as one centre for the region. Singapore will not be repeated. We will never have a Tokyo. People will vote with their feet. We will have a country with high density cities and increased population in our regions.

    Our fertile population supporting area will get densely populated. It’s inevitable and it’s amazing how slow it is when you look at the world population.

    With distance eliminated we showed the desirability to live here.
    With our Covid response we showed that being trapped in Australia was one of the best places in the world to be trapped.

  6. Guytaur
    It will be interesting to see where the money moves too when they realise that all their prime beachfront property is about to become inundated due to sea levels rises.

  7. Assantdj at 3:51 pm

    Guytaur
    It will be interesting to see where the money moves too when they realise that all their prime beachfront property is about to become inundated due to sea levels rises.

    Perhaps they will go through an intermediate stage , dig up the roads to make canals and add after the suburb’s name “…..the Venice of ……” 😆

  8. Assantdj

    Yes of course if we don’t stuff up the vaccination rollout too much the attraction will be much greater in the next few months building into the coming decades for Australia.

    Labor’s NBN and renewable energy plans are essential to achieve this without disrupting our way of life too much.

  9. Simon Katich @ #1136 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 2:20 pm

    When hiking in the NZ mountains you are always warned that
    a) dont leave your stuff unattended or the Keas will steal it,
    b) you aussies are useless and our mountains are seriously serious – you will either die a terrible death or need rescuing on all of the trails you want to go on. Only kiwis are tough enough and only kiwis fast and fit enough to walk any route in the signposted time.

    There have been quite a few Kiwi’s rescued from the Overland and SW tracks here in Tassie over the years, a fair few in body bags. Dunno what that’s supposed to prove but there you go.

    N.B along with a great number of Australians, various foreign national’s and locals. Mainly due to not taking the right equipment for the environment they were about to traverse. I.E a pack of sandwiches, thermos of tea and wearing khaki shorts and fekkin sand shoes for a seven day walk on the overland track.

  10. C@tmomma @ #1106 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 12:47 pm

    Nick Feik
    @NickFeik

    Still astounded that the govt would put $500m into the war memorial (already over-funded) while allowing the actual national archives (which needs a fraction of that) to rot through lack of funds.
    They’re not interested in history; they’re interested in honouring militarism.

    They want to rewrite history as suits them. The first step to that end being wiping the existing historical record so nobody can call them out on the rewriting.

  11. Sceptic @ #1154 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 3:30 pm

    BRS..
    Former special forces soldier Ben Roberts-Smith has told his Federal Court defamation trial that being awarded the Victoria Cross “put a target on my back” and left him open to spite-fuelled attacks from other soldiers.

    All this backgrounding to why I’m a good fella & wouldn’t do anything wrong….100% irrelevant, only the facts & truth matter
    Also looks like boys do cry.

    Every other VC recipient I’ve heard of were very self effacing and highly respected by his fellow soldiers along the lines of “fekked if I’d do that”.

    There is a lot of the BRS story that will only be known by him and him claiming “jealously” from fellow members of his unit are pure and unadulterated bullshit.

  12. If everyone who knows BRS, loves BRS, why would someone who knows him make up stories about him?

  13. Bert @ #1159 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 3:42 pm

    Simon Katich @ #1136 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 2:20 pm

    When hiking in the NZ mountains you are always warned that
    a) dont leave your stuff unattended or the Keas will steal it,
    b) you aussies are useless and our mountains are seriously serious – you will either die a terrible death or need rescuing on all of the trails you want to go on. Only kiwis are tough enough and only kiwis fast and fit enough to walk any route in the signposted time.

    There have been quite a few Kiwi’s rescued from the Overland and SW tracks here in Tassie over the years, a fair few in body bags. Dunno what that’s supposed to prove but there you go.

    N.B along with a great number of Australians, various foreign national’s and locals. Mainly due to not taking the right equipment for the environment they were about to traverse. I.E a pack of sandwiches, thermos of tea and wearing khaki shorts and fekkin sand shoes for a seven day walk on the overland track.

    I was unprepared for how hard Mt Olympus was going to be. The goss at the hut was it was a cinch ‘old people and kids do it no problems’. I was more cautious – well prepared with clothing, water etc, but not prepared for how dangerous the rock scrambling near the top was. I have done plenty of that and was confident with the approach, but Mrs Katich went into shock at the point of no return. I coaxed her, foot hold by hand hold to the top, she insisted a helicopter was the only possible return.

    I decided we would take a different and what appeared safer descent. The plaques on that route suggested otherwise.

  15. Former special forces soldier Ben Roberts-Smith has told his Federal Court defamation trial that being awarded the Victoria Cross “put a target on my back” and left him open to spite-fuelled attacks from other soldiers.

    Maybe he’s wearing it wrong?

    Speaking of VC myths:

    Show your mettle: Victoria Cross not made of captured Russian guns after all
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/03/show-your-mettle-victoria-cross-not-made-of-captured-russian-guns-after-all

  16. When BR-S was recounting his fiery battle in court was he asked how many PUC’s (Persons Under Control) were firing at him?

  17. Frydenberg on robodebt:

    It is very difficult when it comes to recovering debts but it’s a process that has been adopted by successive governments.

    This is a flat out lie. Income averaging was used by successive governments, but so has addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. So what? The *Robodebt* process was not used by any other government.

    Here is how the Coalition’s process differed from others. If a person was flagged by income averaging, then:
    – If there was evidence they did not owe a debt, they were not pursued by other governments, but they were unlawfully pursued by the Coalition who never checked that evidence.

    – If there was evidence that they did owe a debt, they were pursued lawfully by other governments, but they were unlawfully pursued by the Coalition because that evidence was never put together (this is like indiscriminately arresting everyone in Australia – you’re bound to arrest some criminals along with all the innocent people, that doesn’t mean you arrested the criminals lawfully).

    – If there was no evidence either way then as a “last resort” they *might* have been pursued unlawfully by other governments on the decision of a human, and they were automatically pursued unlawfully by the Coalition.

    *All* outcomes following the income averaging calculation were unlawful under the Coalition government. For only one edge condition might this have been the case under other governments.

    Robodebt is clearly not the same process from previous governments. A significant step, i.e. compiling evidence of the debt or otherwise, was omitted by the Coalition. The Coalition removed the keystone from the arch and then blamed the resulting collapse on the architect because the rest of the blocks were the same.

  18. When hiking in the NZ mountains you are always warned that
    a) dont leave your stuff unattended or the Keas will steal it,
    b) you aussies are useless and our mountains are seriously serious – you will either die a terrible death or need rescuing on all of the trails you want to go on. Only kiwis are tough enough and only kiwis fast and fit enough to walk any route in the signposted time.

    😀

    NZ lingo guide:

    * “hull” – a mountain.
    * “mountain” – see “cluff”.
    * “trick” – something only Kiwis would walk on.

  19. Bert,
    I was a soldier and I know a few soldiers who have be awarded gallantry commendations outside of campaign medals. They don’t tend to brag about it. Humility around the topic usually wins out.

    BRS, can be contrasted with Donaldson and the other young guy from 6RAR whose name escapes me.

    How does BRS act, how do they act.

    The, “I did a thing, I’m special” rhetoric sends up warnings IMHO.

    I always prefer to reflect on awards with the question “What have you don’t lately?”

  21. I have done maybe a dozen walks in SW Tasmania over the years and you simply must carry the gear you need for the worst weather you can contemplate – a quality 3 season tent (at the minimum), a good down sleeping bag, proper hiking boots, and quality Goretex (or equivalent) wet weather gear and gloves. Plus a couple of polar fleece jumpers, a set of thermals and a beanie!

    I too have seen people on the Overland Track in sneakers and puffer jackets! But the ones I most worried about were the 2 young Canadians heading up into the Western Arthurs from the West Portal end in denim jeans and flannelette shirts…

  22. Channel 9 Afternoon News had Frydenburg on about Robodebt, AFTER Bill Shorten laying in to the government over Robodebt AND Ch9 only showed footage of Frydenburg where he was stumbling over an answer. 😀

  25. And I’m sure the judge has heard his kind a million times before and can see them coming a mile away.

    I hope so.

    Will there be another tale of derring-do where “RS” saved the day by allegedly wiping a laptop before it fell into enemy hands?

  26. How could any minister involved in Robodebt possibly be believed if they persist in saying they were never complicit in or suspicious of the program?

  29. Bk

    and how could any senior public servant who defended Robodebt be in line for promotion?

    I read the other day that Kathryn Campbell, who backed Robodebt up hill and down dale at Senate estimates is favoured to take over at DFAT.

  30. With the second death by blood clotting allegedly by the AZ vaccine, it seems the cure is being more deadly than the ailment in Australia atm.

  32. south @ #1169 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 4:39 pm

    Bert,
    I was a soldier and I know a few soldiers who have be awarded gallantry commendations outside of campaign medals. They don’t tend to brag about it. Humility around the topic usually wins out.

    BRS, can be contrasted with Donaldson and the other young guy from 6RAR whose name escapes me.

    How does BRS act, how do they act.

    The, “I did a thing, I’m special” rhetoric sends up warnings IMHO.

    I always prefer to reflect on awards with the question “What have you don’t lately?”

    South, I agree whole heartedly. The stuff that is coming out of the current case is disturbing, to say the least. The statements coming from BR-S are decidedly weird.
    I was lucky enough to meet Keith Payne VC once. If you knew nothing about him you’d never know he was a recipient. As I said I think BR-S has believed the publicity about himself. You never hear anything of Mark Donaldson VC, why would that be? Contrast the difference between the two.

  33. Christian Porter and his high-profile barrister have been ordered to pay costs running into the hundreds of thousands of dollars to Jo Dyer, a friend of the woman who had accused the former attorney general of raping her three decades ago. Today justice Tom Thawley made a costs order forcing Porter and his former barrister, Sue Chrysanthou SC, to pay Dyer’s costs in relation to last month’s federal court hearing.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/11/christian-porter-sue-chrysanthou-lawyer-ordered-pay-jo-dyer-legal-costs-failed-court-case

  35. John Hewson just tweeted, “Judge calls robodebt a “shameful chapter” and “massive failure” in public administration- water off Morrison Govt’s back – knows no shame, accepts no responsibility, never makes mistakes, no compassion for those who suffered – defines this Government”. Can’t argue with that!

  36. Simon Katich @ #1163 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 4:31 pm

    Bert @ #1159 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 3:42 pm

    Simon Katich @ #1136 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 2:20 pm

    When hiking in the NZ mountains you are always warned that
    a) dont leave your stuff unattended or the Keas will steal it,
    b) you aussies are useless and our mountains are seriously serious – you will either die a terrible death or need rescuing on all of the trails you want to go on. Only kiwis are tough enough and only kiwis fast and fit enough to walk any route in the signposted time.

    There have been quite a few Kiwi’s rescued from the Overland and SW tracks here in Tassie over the years, a fair few in body bags. Dunno what that’s supposed to prove but there you go.

    N.B along with a great number of Australians, various foreign national’s and locals. Mainly due to not taking the right equipment for the environment they were about to traverse. I.E a pack of sandwiches, thermos of tea and wearing khaki shorts and fekkin sand shoes for a seven day walk on the overland track.

    I was unprepared for how hard Mt Olympus was going to be. The goss at the hut was it was a cinch ‘old people and kids do it no problems’. I was more cautious – well prepared with clothing, water etc, but not prepared for how dangerous the rock scrambling near the top was. I have done plenty of that and was confident with the approach, but Mrs Katich went into shock at the point of no return. I coaxed her, foot hold by hand hold to the top, she insisted a helicopter was the only possible return.

    I decided we would take a different and what appeared safer descent. The plaques on that route suggested otherwise.

    Simon, people don’t realise how dangerous the Tasmanian wilderness can be, including a hell of a lot of Tasmanian’s. Glad you managed to get out in one piece and hope it didn’t deter you from Tassie.

  39. Outsider from earlier,
    “I too have seen people on the Overland Track in sneakers and puffer jackets! But the ones I most worried about were the 2 young Canadians heading up into the Western Arthurs from the West Portal end in denim jeans and flannelette shirts…”

    They’re the type that usually end up as statistics. I’ve said it to many people over the years, “just because it’s summer and you’re heading off on the Overland, pack clothing for temperature’s below zero”. You might not need it but your chances of getting out alive IF you need it and haven’t got it are very slim. Rescue choppers can’t fly all the time, no matter how good the pilot and crew are.

  42. BB @2 40pm
    “We should be developing Australia, not squatting on it and scratching a living selling off precious resources which is only a way of making other countries rich.”
    Thanks, says it all.
    Unfortunately the Morrison government, like LNP governments before it, see “developing” as digging a hole, with a concept of squattocracy stemming from the earliest white occupancy, any mention of a future past their next taxation return buried in bloviated speeches, pumped up egos and selfish legacies.

  44. If you are relying on a pack of sandwiches to survive the cruel rigours of Tassie, then make sure they have vegemite and not marmite on them.

  47. Bk

    Campbell another with army reserve background. A major general no less.
    Not used to being asked questions.
    Outgoing dfat head adamson seems to be universally respected and experienced diplomat.
    Not sure Campbell will bring same skills.

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