The Australian reports Labor has retained its 51-49 lead in the post-budget poll, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (unchanged), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up two) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is down a point on approval to 58% and up one on disapproval to 38%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 39% and up three to 46%, which equals his worst ever net rating from Newspoll. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed at 55-30, compared with 56-30 last time.
Regarding the budget, the poll found 44% of respondents expecting it would be good for the economy compared with 15% for bad. On the question of the its personal impact, the better off and worse off responses both scored 19%, with a strikingly high 62% unable to say. There was presumably also a question on whether the opposition would have done a better job, as per Newspoll’s long-established practice — I’ll add that and any further detail as it becomes available.
UPDATE: The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1506. No result yet for the “would the opposition have done better” question, probably because The Australian is saving it for tomorrow. Out of 34 post-budget Newspolls going back to 1988, this is the eighth best result for impact on personal finances and the sixth best for impact on the economy.
The chart below plots the one series against the other, with the present result shown in red. This is near the trendline, suggesting no particular tendency for the budget’s economic impact to be seen as more positive (as tended to be the case in the Howard goverment’s early budgets) than the personal impact (which rated higher in the last three budgets), relative to the favourable reception for the budget overall.
The best received budgets mostly came during the golden age of government revenue from 2004 to 2008: the best of all, on both personal and economic impact, was the one that preceded the Howard government’s defeat in 2007.
Steve777 wrote:
What the article actually says is that the facts “better fit” the “laboratory origin” scenario than the “natural origin” scenario in several areas of analysis.
It stops short of concrete conclusions. Not every publication has to be dogmatic or definitive. It can suggest a case should be investigated further without casting it in stone as a certainty.
I feel CC’s dismissal of it as “rubbish” is particularly premature. The article discusses in some detail scientific denialism, and the potential for blame shifting (especially in such a controversial area as “gain-of-function” research – ie. the artificial engineering of particularly aggressive viruses) , as well as the reasons why science politics, as well as geopolitics (both US and China-based) might seek to throw a few red herrings in the waters.
‘Socrates says:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 11:04 am
This graph in the Economist gives some indication of the real Covid death toll. There were 7 million to 13 million “excess deaths” in the world during the pandemic. How many are dying in Onddia right now? ‘
———————————————-
No doubt the statisticians will be trying to figure it out now and in years to come. The Wuhan official figures did not match cremation statistics, for example. Exactly the same story happens in the Philippines where cremation statistics do not tally with official death toll figures. The corpses floating down Ganga tell their own story.
BiTJ
I assume that you accept that the WHO Team was prevented from accessing the key primary data in assessing the origins of Covid: the 2019 China samples?
‘Socrates says:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 11:02 am
I am pleased to see Albanese campaign in North Qld. Hopefully the locals are finally realizing that coalition policy does them no favours and Adani jobs are smirk and mirrors. ‘
Farmers were the last to accept climate science but they were the first to suffer the impacts of global warming so the turnaround has been pretty quick.
It is hard to find a farmer, or a farmer organization that does not at least tacitly accept that farming conditions have changed in a most basic fashion.
boerwar @ #153 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 9:09 am
How is that relevant to their final report recommendations?
What recommendation and observation would it change?
lizzie
Gladys annoys me because she automatically takes on board bad advice.
That includes her needless and recklessly dangerous attitude to “living with covid”.
Too close to some in the federal sphere including dangerous idiots like Collignon.
BB
Its been explained by experts elsewhere that such deliberate engineering leaves a trail in the genome.
No such evidence exists.
lizzie @ #NaN Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 11:04 am
Marise Payne is a waste of space as Foreign Minister.
Cud Chewer @ #NaN Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 11:19 am
Exactly. In fact, the opposite is the case. Genomic evidence points back to the Wet Market.
Does anyone know if this is true?
If so why has Victoria reduced its number of returnees yet again?
https://covidlive.com.au/states-and-territories
C@t
I’d forgotten Senator Payne. Shows what a nonentity she is in these circumstances!
C@tmomma @ #159 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 9:24 am
Because it was a place where many people came together in close proximity, not because it might have been the point where the jump from animals to humans occurred.
“lizziesays:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 10:58 am
I wonder why Gladys irritates me so much. Maybe it’s her constant theme that NSW is the best at dealing with Covid, that they do much more than the other states, are tops at rolling out the vaccinations, are always responsive to requests from the Commonwealth, and always make the right decisions with regard to “living with Covid”.
Maybe it’s just that Morrison is such a fan!”
The LNP leaders and politicians were/are branded as do-nothings by people on left when developing and implementing policies because of their ‘small government’ mantra, which was by and large true. However, Gladys went against that trend by managing things well as described by you and pointing that out. When it came to Gillard, She managed so well and implemented many new policies.
But she did not explain it to the people constantly thinking “good policy and good governance speaks for itself”. That was her biggest mistake. Australians in general are not tuned to politics to put it kindly. They only show interest during elections. The thing is you have to keep explaining continuously when you did something good and repeat. Bad things spread quickly because people experienced more bad than good. For example Abbott.b
Abbott was continuously campaigning negatively all the time. Gillard needs to be heard about that.
The point I am trying to explain is Gladys is explaining and Jodie is sleeping.
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 11:14 am
boerwar @ #153 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 9:09 am
BiTJ
I assume that you accept that the WHO Team was prevented from accessing the key primary data in assessing the origins of Covid: the 2019 China samples?’
How is that relevant to their final report recommendations?
What recommendation and observation would it change?’
—————————————————–
Would you mind answering the question with an answer, please?
Here’s a good news story from Victoria regarding process reforms that are designed to reduce domestic violence.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-17/victoria-police-39-question-actuarial-tool-family-violence-risk/100130532
Assuming Labor loses Upper Hunter – is it the hour of Minns ? Or Perhaps Gerard Hayes ?
P1 wrote:
Yeah, the erudite but single-minded Zoidlord-Zerlo was one of them from memory, FFS!
You keep referring to how everyone knows the truth, and how “a lot of people … read my original comments” etc. etc., and you are constantly threatening me with a rehash of them to refresh everyone’s memory. But you never produce anything.
By now your original accusations are discredited, and most of what I wrote about taking sensible precautions with a novel virus, the possibility of nasty mutations, the domestic and international politicization of COVID, the day of reckoning for China over its lax quarantine procedures in January 2020, and about the possibility of aerosol transmission has been vindicated. I even expressed the opinion that Brisbane University’s production of an acceptable insta-vacvine “in 16 weeks time” (ie. by last June) sounded like braggadocio, which it turned out to be.
What I said I intended to do personally is now more or less public health policy. That’s not a bad record.
What have YOU said?
Called anyone who disagreed with you a “racist” or other insulting labels (trying to establish these condemnations as “common wisdom” through sheer, bloody-minded repetition), went out of your way to criticise Labor on any pretext whatsoever (not that Labor should be immune from criticism, but it DOES get monotonous at times), and had a whinge to us all about a social security scam you and your husband tried and failed to put past Centrelink by declaring yourselves to be your own employees.
You appear to exist here solely to be a perpetual pain in the arse, an irritant, judging others but not accepting any criticism yourself.
To use your own terminology, a lot of people who read your comments are aware of that.
boerwar @ #164 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 9:30 am
Typical, I’m not following you down your rabbit hole of irrelevancy.
Has Labor preselected a candidate in Chisholm ?
Surely that’s got to be a high priority target for Labor ? More so than NQLD.
Presumably there’s a community voice limbering up in Higgins/ Kooyong too ?
lizzie @ #NaN Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 11:27 am
She just sort of floats around wasting space as far as I can see. Pretty much like she does with her other position as prime Minister for Women. 🙄
Ven
I absolutely agree with you that Labor fails to defend itself adequately. “Virtue is its own reward” doesn’t work in politics.
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 11:32 am
Here’s a good news story from Victoria regarding process reforms that are designed to reduce domestic violence.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-17/victoria-police-39-question-actuarial-tool-family-violence-risk/100130532‘
Absolutely. The worrying thing is that this is a triage instrument. Triage is traditionally about sorting out the likely survivors, the ones who are in trouble but who will survive on their own for a while and the ones who will survive only with immediate emergency treatment. Pushing the triage ‘line’ as far back as possible is highly desirable. This depends on resources.
Lars Von Trier @ #NaN Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 11:32 am
No because it’s not as if they would have lost a safe Labor seat. They were never likely to win this safe Nationals seat and for them to be 51-49 behind the Nationals is a testament to how well they’ve done compared with the last state election result.
If BB and boerwar had not repeatedly demonstrated their anti-China bias here over the past year or so, one might take their posts on the origins of the virus a bit more seriously.
As it stands, I will be guided by the author of BB’s article who themselves notes that there is “no direct evidence” of any particular theory. That makes this a simple opinion piece, and despite all the technical guff included to blind the reader with scientific jargon, no more informative than a thousand other opinion pieces on the origins of the virus.
Although I have to say I was amused by one of the comments (heavy sarcasm alert):
C@t
“Minister for Women”. Now that is a joke.
Anyway, Chris Minns is damaged goods, as you would be well aware and probably licking your lips in anticipation of how much lower Labor could go if they chose him.
C@tmomma @ #158 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 9:23 am
That could be a template:
____ _____ is a waste of space as _____ Minister.
Fill in the blanks accordingly. 😉
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 11:35 am
….
Typical, I’m not following you down your rabbit hole of irrelevancy.’
If you are comfortable with the fact actually being a fact, just say so. If you don’t think it is a fact, just say so. Either way.
Otherwise, I suggest you keep doing what you are doing which is to resort to insulting dialogue.’
Something seems to be out of balance on the Gold Coast wrt DV. Too many instances lately.
Who would know the preference flows for Upper Hunter ?
Presumably a result hangs on :
1) one nation prefs or exhaust
2) does Labor finish before or after the SFF
It’s almost impossible to tell how it works out given the splits in primary vote.
DP,
Starting with the guy at the top of the heap of crap that is the Coalition.
Danama Papers
Yeah. 🙂
Bushfire Bill @ #167 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 11:33 am
https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Apollbludger.net+tiger+balls
I’ve read BB’s article.
So much of it is superfluous to his argument and the interesting bits like the furin cleavage site are debatable. In short this would never pass peer review.
“Furthermore, Wuhan is 1,500 kilometres away from the large bat colonies of Southern China , making a “natural” path from bats to humans unlikely.”
Says who? I find this intellectually dishonest. The distance to Wuhan is irrelevant. We now know quite well that the virus had been in the wild and even circulated outside of China late in 2019. Wuhan was an amplification site, not an origin.
Lars Von Trier @ #NaN Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 11:43 am
Now that is a reasonable comment. In such a diverse field, with Optional Preferential Voting remember, it’s going to be an unpredictable result I reckon.
boerwar @ #178 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 9:41 am
I’m interested in commenting on relevant issues and not your points of deflection which are entirely irrelevant.
So when will Morrison state that the Vic one was his own idea?
Given the BiTJ has basically resorted to insults and fact avoidance we can go the next stage without them.
Why, if the 2019 samples were problem-free for the Comrades, did they absolutely refuse to allow the WHO Team from accessing the samples?
This was one of the issues that resulting in shouting matches between some members of the WHO Team and Chinese officials who were ‘expediting’ WHO Team travel and access arrangements.
In this context we need to recall that at the time China side was also actively deflecting by suggesting the origin to third countries. What were they Spain? Italy? Remember?
LVT – I have seen no ALP candidate listed for Chisholm, Deakin, Higgins, Kooyong, Latrobe, Casey, Menzies, Goldstein or Flinders anywhere.
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 11:45 am
boerwar @ #178 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 9:41 am
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 11:35 am
….
Typical, I’m not following you down your rabbit hole of irrelevancy.’
If you are comfortable with the fact actually being a fact, just say so. If you don’t think it is a fact, just say so. Either way.
Otherwise, I suggest you keep doing what you are doing which is to resort to insulting dialogue.’
I’m interested in commenting on relevant issues and not your points of deflection which are entirely irrelevant.’
Exactly so. The Comrades always decide what is relevant! I’ll give you a little clue. If the comrades don’t like the answer then the question is irrelevant. Which is exactly what you keep doing. I assume that this is yet another one of life’s unexpected coincidences.
Socratessays:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 11:02 am
“I am pleased to see Albanese campaign in North Qld. Hopefully the locals are finally realising that coalition policy does them no favours and Adani jobs are smirk and mirrors.”
……….
Yep.
We’re all pretty slow on the uptake here in “North Qld”.
Although, most of us would probably be able to locate Adelaide on a map and could also tell you that Narangba (Federal electorate of Longman) is about an hour and a half drive from the NSW border.
Victoria
‘Jaunty pubic hair poke through”’
This one sort of sticks in the mind’s eye.
The one constant about covid19, is that scientists agree that it is natural and not a manipulated artificial virus.
boerwar @ #188 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 9:47 am
“insults”????
I didn’t realise suggesting you were making an irrelevant point was an insult.
boerwar @ #191 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 9:49 am
So tell us, how is it relevant to the WHO findings?
U.S. COVID update: Lowest number of new cases since June 2020
– New cases: 17,487 ……………………… – New deaths: 343
– In hospital: 30,102 (-705)
– In ICU: 8,142 (-94)
600,147 total deaths now
Boerwar
LOL! I’ve deleted my last post. It wasnt what I wanted to post. Double lol!
Here is what I wanted to post
Virginia Trioli
@LaTrioli
There is so much that is infuriatingly disingenuous about that Coatsworth op-ed that I just can’t, as the kids say. So I’ll leave it to Dr Kelly below, but add that top public health brass should be forever grateful to the HCW voices of dissent of 2020.
Quote Tweet
Dr Greg Kelly
@drgregkelly
· May 16
Democracy is messy. Australia’s #COVID19 response worked because ppl at the top, Nick Coatsworth & Morrison included, were able to bend to pressure when needed. That’s something to be proud of
Yes, things happened slowly & avoidable harms occurred
Show this thread
8:24 PM · May 16, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
The SARS-Cov-2 virus has a natural, zoonotic origin. It was not cooked up in a lab.
Now that it’s confirmed that the Red Carpet pic at RAAF Williamtown was genuine, it must be said that what a supercilious blockhead Morrison is, aping the treatment US presidents get. Next, he’ll demand to be saluted. And in my experience, you only “present arms” on the parade ground for heads of state, royalty. Of course, if Campbell wasn’t taken down a peg or two by Dutton over the SAS citations, one might expect him to take Morrison aside to warn him that the ADF should not be seen as political, as he did at Pyne’s presser.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-28/defence-chiefs-desert-christopher-pyne-in-press-conference/10949250
BitJ
A typical response and a predictable trajectory.
You have the discussion topic where you want it – nowhere. So, let’s get back to taws.
Did the WHO Team access the 2019 Covid samples? If not, why not?