Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 35, Greens 12

A second poll finds strong support for the budget and weakening personal numbers for Anthony Albanese, without translating into a boost for the government on voting intention.

The Age/Herald have published the second poll in their new monthly federal series from Resolve Strategic, which has naturally been timed to follow up on last week’s budget. The first thing to be noted is that whatever caused an implausible reading of 6% for One Nation last time has been addressed, with the effect that both major parties are up on the primary vote — the Coalition by one to 39% and Labor by two to 35% — while the Greens are steady on 12% and One Nation are down to 2%. This series makes a big play of not publishing a two-party result, but the result would be 51-49 to Labor if preference flows from the 2019 election were applied.

Scott Morrison’s approval rating -– or more precisely, those who rated his performance in recent weeks as very good or good –- is up three points to 53%, while his disapproval is steady on 38%. Anthony Albanese is down three to 32%, and his disapproval is up four to 45%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed at 48-25, compared with 47-25 last time.

The breakdowns showed no significant gender gap last time, but they do this time: the Coalition now leads 44% to 31% among men, compared with 38% to 34% last time, while Labor leads 38% to 34% among women, compared with a 38% to 33% deficit last time. The poll also finds Labor doing quite a bit better than last time in New South Wales and the Coalition doing quite a bit better in Victoria, to the extent that Victoria is the stronger state overall for the Coalition, which is not how things normally go.

The budget scored well, with 56% rating it very good or good for the country as a whole, with a mere 10% rated it bad or very bad, the remainder being either neutral or undecided. Thirty-five per cent felt it would be very good or good for their household finances, compared with 17% for bad or very bad. More specific responses on budget initiatives can be found in the accompanying report.

The poll also found 59% opposed to an early election with only “one in five” in support. The results display feature also includes regular results on best party to handle various issues, and a finding that 46% expect the Coalition to win the next election compared with 21% for Labor. The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1600; precise field work dates are not provided as far as I can tell, unless we’re to take it that the poll was conducted entirely on Sunday (UPDATE: The report notes it was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1622).

Also out today is a second tranche of results from Newspoll courtesy of The Australian, including the regular post-budget question on whether the opposition would have done a better job: 33% believed so, the same as last year, compared with 46% who did not, down three. “A Coalition goverment led by Scott Morrison” was rated better to guide Australia’s recovery by 54% compared with 32% for “a Labor government led by Anthony Albanese”. Sixty per cent thought the government right to stimulate the economy at the cost of higher debt, compared with 30% who thought the government should be doing more to rein in spending and reduce debt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,306 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 35, Greens 12”

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  1. guytaur

    However you cut the cake the climate wars over the last 10 years played out as they did because there was a minor party aiming for perfection ( a kind interpretation) and we got nothing. It has left Australia in a very poor position, with the countries reputation damaged.

    Claiming it was a success, because for a moment legislation that did not have broad political support was passed is a nonsense. With the CPRS Rudd aimed for broad political support, but Abbott with the full support of the Greens sunk that, and we are now where we are. It could have been so much different.

    The kind interpretation, the really sad thing is the Greens have not reflected on what they have done, learnt nothing and remain politically naive.

    The hard interpretation, the Australian Greens was never an Environmental party, they are a protest party, they measure success by the level of political failure created, they work hard to create it.

    Talk of smashing the political duopoly is the talk of a party that is not trying to get environmental outcomes, an environmental party works within the political reality, it is the talk of a protest party.

    I think there is sufficient evidence the greens are nothing more than a protest party and that they are quiet content with the mess they help create.

    We have daily posts from Quoll to underline what the Greens have become, a political failure (the Liberal’s offer) is of more interest than good policy.

    As a country we are fortunate that the Liberals and Greens have not had as much success at the state level, Labor have been in power in some and the electricity grid is ran by the states. For all the effort put in by the Liberals and Greens the electricity grid it is not a complete mess.

  2. Cud,
    Re Gladys and her resistance, there was much on twitter , backed up by video clips, of how Gladys refused to wear masks and in one clip, it showed a meeting with Kerry Chant, Brad Hazzard and the rest of the room masked , until Gladys walked in unmasked….and their looks said it all.
    There seems to be a determined ‘anti-woke’ streak in these people.
    I share your concerns.
    Why not take the safest options from day one?
    Bill Bowtell’s frustration is palpable, as are those of most epidemiologists I’ve heard.
    Why not require people from O/S to be fully vaccinated and tested before and after flights, staying in quarantine until clear. Nip in the bud where possible.
    I feel the same about bushfires …why not throw everything at them before they get out of control?
    Maybe the lucky country has believed its own myth for too long….lucky for some , not all.
    (As you can tell, I’m a ‘blow-in’ )

  3. Good Morning


    No. You are wrong.

    You just want to blame the greens instead of acknowledging the election loss.

    You lot have been using that excuse because you ignore the reality.
    The climate legislation was reality. Labor lost the election.

    It was not the fault of the Greens when Climate Change legislation passed the parliament


    As for Labor. I think it will be better off with Joel Fitzgibbon out of the party.

    Call his bluff. Let him walk away. Stop being blackmailed by him.

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