The Age/Herald have published the second poll in their new monthly federal series from Resolve Strategic, which has naturally been timed to follow up on last week’s budget. The first thing to be noted is that whatever caused an implausible reading of 6% for One Nation last time has been addressed, with the effect that both major parties are up on the primary vote — the Coalition by one to 39% and Labor by two to 35% — while the Greens are steady on 12% and One Nation are down to 2%. This series makes a big play of not publishing a two-party result, but the result would be 51-49 to Labor if preference flows from the 2019 election were applied.
Scott Morrison’s approval rating -– or more precisely, those who rated his performance in recent weeks as very good or good –- is up three points to 53%, while his disapproval is steady on 38%. Anthony Albanese is down three to 32%, and his disapproval is up four to 45%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed at 48-25, compared with 47-25 last time.
The breakdowns showed no significant gender gap last time, but they do this time: the Coalition now leads 44% to 31% among men, compared with 38% to 34% last time, while Labor leads 38% to 34% among women, compared with a 38% to 33% deficit last time. The poll also finds Labor doing quite a bit better than last time in New South Wales and the Coalition doing quite a bit better in Victoria, to the extent that Victoria is the stronger state overall for the Coalition, which is not how things normally go.
The budget scored well, with 56% rating it very good or good for the country as a whole, with a mere 10% rated it bad or very bad, the remainder being either neutral or undecided. Thirty-five per cent felt it would be very good or good for their household finances, compared with 17% for bad or very bad. More specific responses on budget initiatives can be found in the accompanying report.
The poll also found 59% opposed to an early election with only “one in five” in support. The results display feature also includes regular results on best party to handle various issues, and a finding that 46% expect the Coalition to win the next election compared with 21% for Labor. The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1600; precise field work dates are not provided as far as I can tell, unless we’re to take it that the poll was conducted entirely on Sunday (UPDATE: The report notes it was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1622).
Also out today is a second tranche of results from Newspoll courtesy of The Australian, including the regular post-budget question on whether the opposition would have done a better job: 33% believed so, the same as last year, compared with 46% who did not, down three. “A Coalition goverment led by Scott Morrison” was rated better to guide Australia’s recovery by 54% compared with 32% for “a Labor government led by Anthony Albanese”. Sixty per cent thought the government right to stimulate the economy at the cost of higher debt, compared with 30% who thought the government should be doing more to rein in spending and reduce debt.