Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 35, Greens 12

A second poll finds strong support for the budget and weakening personal numbers for Anthony Albanese, without translating into a boost for the government on voting intention.

The Age/Herald have published the second poll in their new monthly federal series from Resolve Strategic, which has naturally been timed to follow up on last week’s budget. The first thing to be noted is that whatever caused an implausible reading of 6% for One Nation last time has been addressed, with the effect that both major parties are up on the primary vote — the Coalition by one to 39% and Labor by two to 35% — while the Greens are steady on 12% and One Nation are down to 2%. This series makes a big play of not publishing a two-party result, but the result would be 51-49 to Labor if preference flows from the 2019 election were applied.

Scott Morrison’s approval rating -– or more precisely, those who rated his performance in recent weeks as very good or good –- is up three points to 53%, while his disapproval is steady on 38%. Anthony Albanese is down three to 32%, and his disapproval is up four to 45%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed at 48-25, compared with 47-25 last time.

The breakdowns showed no significant gender gap last time, but they do this time: the Coalition now leads 44% to 31% among men, compared with 38% to 34% last time, while Labor leads 38% to 34% among women, compared with a 38% to 33% deficit last time. The poll also finds Labor doing quite a bit better than last time in New South Wales and the Coalition doing quite a bit better in Victoria, to the extent that Victoria is the stronger state overall for the Coalition, which is not how things normally go.

The budget scored well, with 56% rating it very good or good for the country as a whole, with a mere 10% rated it bad or very bad, the remainder being either neutral or undecided. Thirty-five per cent felt it would be very good or good for their household finances, compared with 17% for bad or very bad. More specific responses on budget initiatives can be found in the accompanying report.

The poll also found 59% opposed to an early election with only “one in five” in support. The results display feature also includes regular results on best party to handle various issues, and a finding that 46% expect the Coalition to win the next election compared with 21% for Labor. The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1600; precise field work dates are not provided as far as I can tell, unless we’re to take it that the poll was conducted entirely on Sunday (UPDATE: The report notes it was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1622).

Also out today is a second tranche of results from Newspoll courtesy of The Australian, including the regular post-budget question on whether the opposition would have done a better job: 33% believed so, the same as last year, compared with 46% who did not, down three. “A Coalition goverment led by Scott Morrison” was rated better to guide Australia’s recovery by 54% compared with 32% for “a Labor government led by Anthony Albanese”. Sixty per cent thought the government right to stimulate the economy at the cost of higher debt, compared with 30% who thought the government should be doing more to rein in spending and reduce debt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,306 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 35, Greens 12”

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  1. guytaur,

    So now we have “true compromise” which is somehow more legitimate than a simple compromise. :))

  2. True Shellbell you would think a serious party would be manoeuvring quality candidates in their early 40s into those seats with a view to them being cabinet ministers or future leader.

    The fact that they can’t tells u the machine is finished . It’s the end days.

  3. Barney

    Semantics. I use true to emphasise cooperation did happen. 🙂

    Revisionist history has ignored that in favour of talking about past failures as people try and pretend everyone in that negotiation had 20/20 foresight.

  4. Well the Libs now have a woke female doctor, former Rhodes Scholar Rachel Swift, as their candidate for Boothby.

    Labor is still a asleep at the wheel.

    Election? What election?

  5. Barney

    Yes. It’s why the Climate Change legislation passed parliament.
    It’s why we had PM Gillard for those years. I am thankful for it.

    Not only do we know the carbon price worked we had the Royal Commission into Child Abuse. We had Plain Packaging for tobacco and all the rest of the list.

    It truly was the best political era since Whitlam as Labor and the Greens started pulling us away from neo liberalism that Labor protected us from the harshest parts of it retaining Medicare and social security during the Hawke Keating years. That’s from Rudd day one until the election of Abbott.

    Never be in any doubt I think Australia is a better place to live because of Labor than the UK and the US suffered under Thatcher and Reagan respectively. I don’t want to under appreciate Hawke and Keating as I know they did lots in the era of their time.

  6. guytaur says:
    Sunday, May 23, 2021 at 9:11 pm

    Those independents weren’t conservative and their electorates showed that they didn’t represent the views of their electorate ever since.

  7. Well the Libs now have a woke female doctor, former Rhodes Scholar Rachel Swift, as their candidate for Boothby.

    Labor is still a asleep at the wheel.

    Election? What election?

    Perhaps if we pretend Boothby is in QLD, they’ll get moving on preselection.

  8. Quoll says:
    Sunday, May 23, 2021 at 9:06 pm

    It’s a self-selected poll and therefore almost completely unreliable – who knew that ABC viewers/listeners were biased lefty woke types?

  9. guytaursays:
    Sunday, May 23, 2021 at 9:50 pm

    Barney

    Yes. It’s why the Climate Change legislation passed parliament.
    It’s why we had PM Gillard for those years. I am thankful for it.

    Not only do we know the carbon price worked we had the Royal Commission into Child Abuse. We had Plain Packaging for tobacco and all the rest of the list.

    It truly was the best political era since Whitlam as Labor and the Greens started pulling us away from neo liberalism that Labor protected us from the harshest parts of it retaining Medicare and social security during the Hawke Keating years. That’s from Rudd day one until the election of Abbott.

    Never be in any doubt I think Australia is a better place to live because of Labor than the UK and the US suffered under Thatcher and Reagan respectively. I don’t want to under appreciate Hawke and Keating as I know they did lots in the era of their time.

    Yes, so what?

    When hasn’t Labor been willing to compromise?

  10. As sure as the sun rising tomorrow the ignorant question before investigating

    The short survey is just for any reader to make comparisons with the 2021 data which is not totally available yet. Thought the 2019 data is fully searchable.

    Australia Talks FAQ
    https://australiatalks.abc.net.au/

    What research is Australia Talks based on?

    The Australia Talks National Survey was first fielded in 2019 and then again in 2021. It involved upwards of 54,000 respondents in 2019 and 60,000 in 2021. Survey respondents included Australians from every federal electorate in every state and territory.

    The Australia Talks National Survey reflects the opinions of a larger sample of the population than is captured by conventional public opinion research.

    More than 600 questions were included in the 2021 Australia Talks National Survey, covering a broad range of topics and issues.

    The exact sample sizes for individual questions in the Australia Talks National Survey vary. Some questions were presented to a subset of the total respondents based on their socio-demographic characteristics, while some questions were put to respondents at random.

    The results of the Australia Talks National Survey provide the baseline comparative data for the personalised results provided to users of the Australia Talks online tool.

    The results from the Australia Talks National Survey will also inform content being rolled out across the ABC on digital, radio and television from May 23, 2021.

    Is the National Survey a representative sample?

    As with any poll, a series of pre- and post-stratification statistical weights were applied to the Australia Talks National Survey sample in order to model inferences that are representative of the Australian population.

    The weights control for sample selection effects using census and other population-level estimates for sex, age, education, language, geography and partisanship (vote choice in the 2019 federal election).
    Who were the National Survey participants?

    Participants in the Australia Talks National Survey were selected from the Vox Pop Labs online respondent panel, comprised of a diverse cross-section of Australians. The panel was recruited from Australians who have completed ABC Vote Compass surveys in the past and who said they were willing to participate in further research projects.

    Participants came from every state and territory and every federal electorate across Australia.

  11. Some may wish to complete this survey:

    https://australiatalks.abc.net.au

    Some interesting findings, like the overwhelming support for a federal crime commission; that politicians who lie should resign – I’m thinking all Morrison’s front bench; and, more support for China than I expected.

  12. The Toorak Toff @ #2259 Sunday, May 23rd, 2021 – 9:41 pm

    Well the Libs now have a woke female doctor, former Rhodes Scholar Rachel Swift, as their candidate for Boothby.

    Labor is still a asleep at the wheel.

    Election? What election?

    So, Labor announced THREE federal election candidates last week and the Liberal Party have announced ONE, presumably in your electorate of Boothby, if not your electorate then your state presumably, and you’re saying that Labor need to get a move on? OoooooKkkkk…..

  13. Barney

    Ditto the Greens. That’s the point. Labor and the Greens should not be accusing the other of stiff necked stubbornness and refusal to compromise.

    Neither party was my way or the highway in the Gillard era.

    Just as Labor and the Greens work together in the ACT.

    That’s the facts most on here wants to pretend is not reality.

  14. “It’s a self-selected poll and therefore almost completely unreliable – who knew that ABC viewers/listeners were biased lefty woke types?”

    Whereas that which comes from the IPA or their sub-branch the Liberals has all the significance of that written by odd electrical discharge, upon bits of rock, on some middle eastern hillock….delivered by her chosen representative on earth…Scooty from Marketing.

  15. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/05/18/resolve-strategic-coalition-39-labor-35-greens-12/comment-page-46/#comment-3610759

    Boothby is in the handful of seats, in a uniform swing, needed to get the ALP a majority. It is also the only one of those in SA, with not other ALP versus Lib SA seat with less than a 6% margin. SA is not currently being redistributed. It should clearly be the SA ALP`s top priority for the Commonwealth election.

    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2019/pendulum2019.txt

  16. imacca says:
    Sunday, May 23, 2021 at 10:17 pm

    No, if the IPA is releasing self-selected surveys then they are crap as well. This is a psephological blog so one would expect that some knowledge and discussion of accurate polling technique would be had.

  17. And I’m sure that Albanese has a visit to SA on the agenda, whereupon he will announce Labor’s candidate for Boothby.

  18. Chewer:

    The UK is still flatlining.. Is this telling us that AZ isn’t good enough?

    The UK did not effectively close its borders until early 2021 (various stages), the border closures then operated in parallel with the vaccination drive and internal travel restrictions. Vaccinations (inclduding AZ) drove down symptomatic infections (and worse) and transmissions and continue to do so. Border closures stopped driving up importations of infection but this effect is obviously subject to a limit given virus appears to be endemic in UK. Internal travel restrictions could possibly drive infections closer to zero but will for this appears to be wavering.

  19. Quoll says:
    Sunday, May 23, 2021 at 10:06 pm

    It’s self selected and therefore biased and the proof of that is in the divergence from Federal Election results..

  20. guytaursays:
    Sunday, May 23, 2021 at 10:11 pm

    Barney

    Ditto the Greens. That’s the point. Labor and the Greens should not be accusing the other of stiff necked stubbornness and refusal to compromise.

    Neither party was my way or the highway in the Gillard era.

    Just as Labor and the Greens work together in the ACT.

    That’s the facts most on here wants to pretend is not reality.

    Yes, and what you ignore is that compromise with the Greens may result in a position unacceptable to others needed to gain the required numbers to pass a piece of legislation.

    In this situation compromise with the Greens would achieve nothing.

  21. Buce

    Your argument would have had more credibility before the marriage equality survey.

    All we know from election campaigns is that voters buy the LNP campaign for whatever reason.

    On social issues the LNP has been proven to be completely wrong.
    When Labor works out how to destroy the LNP better economic myth I think your mob will be the ones scrambling to win elections once every so often.

  22. Barney

    There you go. Ignoring that compromise was achieved, that you just agreed climate change legislation was a reality that did pass parliament.

    What you are talking about is that you think climate change has stuck in amber as an issue and that Labor is stuck in the same battle as it was against Tony Abbott.

    It’s not so. Now the battle is between the Australian Press Gallery and reality. The G7 has returned reality to the table. Trade tariffs etc.

    Stop pretending reality did not happen because Labor was overwhelmed by Abbott’s campaign.

  23. guytaursays:
    Sunday, May 23, 2021 at 10:37 pm

    Barney

    There you go. Ignoring that compromise was achieved by ou just agreed climate change legislation was a reality that did pass parliament

    You’re talking about a time when the Greens held the balance of power in the Senate.

    I’m referring to the situation where this does not exist, so your example is hardly relevant.

  24. Barney

    Your hypothetical does not beat reality.

    You just admitted the reality existed. No matter what you think of Labor losing the subsequent election that does not erase the reality that exists.

    Edit: I am talking about the time the Greens gave confidence of supply to Labor and voted with them on many pieces of legislation.

  25. guytaur,

    Apples and oranges.

    They are completely different scenarios, so no logical connection can be made.

  26. Barney

    The only point being made is that yes Labor can and do cooperate with the Greens.

    Stop denying reality.

    It’s no wonder Labor loses to the LNP with that denial of thinking about reality.

    It happened. It’s reality.

  27. Goodnight all.
    I am going to stop bothering you all with an ongoing example of the Labor reality denial shield.

  28. guytaursays:
    Sunday, May 23, 2021 at 11:09 pm

    Barney

    The only point being made is that yes Labor can and do cooperate with the Greens.

    Stop denying reality.

    It’s no wonder Labor loses to the LNP with that denial of thinking.

    You are very limited in your view.

    The point is that Labor do cooperate and compromise with a number of different players.

    You seem to think that Labor must include the Greens, this does not have to be the case when no one Party holds the balance of power in the Senate.

  29. The NSW Government is one of the most corrupt governments in the country, but you wouldn’t know about it.
    Glady 2 shoes is adored in the media even when she was exposed as ignoring corruption.
    Most of the ministers have been involved in some corrupt stuff, again you wouldn’t know by how hopeless political reporting is in NSW. State line is really missed!!

    But hey one of the the least corrupt person ” Jodi” should go apparently, the very one who got under minded by corrupt people in the Labor party in the past.

    But keep on voting for the most corrupt government… whatever they have pretty much sold up everything to their mates now, just got the trains to go now.

  30. Barney

    One last time.

    You are denying reality about what has happened. Thus your opinion about current reality means jack shit.

    Good night

  31. We’re being a bit hard on Jodi McKay. Name any opposition anywhere in state or federal politics that is considered competitive at the moment. Even with a narrow 2pp poll lead, no one is giving Albo a chance.

    The incumbency advantage has never been greater in the 40 odd years I’ve been following these things. No government has lost office since SA Labor in early 2018 and even then it was despite a small swing TO them. In COVID an anxious electorate looks to government for answers and reassurance. Oppositions are irrelevant. Even before, it was hard to make the case for change in what were relatively stable and prosperous times.

    State Labor Governments (WA and Qld) have benefited most electorally because the pandemic plays to brand strengths. Gladys runs what is in many ways a Labor lite show. There is little room for Jodi in brand differentiation.

    Scotty, though, starts to look hamfisted and opportunistic when subject to the kind of scrutiny he can expect in an election. My Tory friends are scathing on the fiscal meltdown. My overseas born friends – that’s close to 30% of the population by the way – are angry at his casual indifference to the human impact of border closures. One has a mother who is dying, but cannot leave to see her for fear of being unable to return.

    That’s before you get to the quarantine and vaccine shemozzles. As we have seen time and time again, oppositions don’t win elections. Governments lose them. And they are usually close.

  32. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, May 23, 2021 at 10:27 pm
    And I’m sure that Albanese has a visit to SA on the agenda, whereupon he will announce Labor’s candidate for Boothby.
    ________________
    Will need to be someone special as opposed to the standard union hack.
    The Lib candidate looks to be a good choice and will take some beating.

  33. guytaursays:
    Sunday, May 23, 2021 at 11:27 pm

    Barney

    One last time.

    You are denying reality about what has happened. Thus your opinion about current reality means jack shit.

    Good night

    “denying reality”??

    So you think the Greens will have the balance of power in the Senate after the next election?

  34. KayJay was 10000 times the man of honesty and integrity that you are, Oakeshott Country. Only the good die young as they say in the classics.

    I trust that, looking back on this miserable comment in the cold light of the morning, C@tmomma will extend OC the apology he is due.

  35. Thanks, Cud.
    I’m far from comfortable at the complacency , that we’re ok as we’re on top of contact -tracing , etc.
    The virulence of these new strains might outpace our current capacity and then everyone will want to be vaccinated immediately, not unlike a run on the bank. And then , once vaccinated, they need to wait( 2 weeks ? ) before the vaccine sets in.
    So short-sighted and dangerous.
    We’ve had our AZ shots and look forward to a Pfizer/Moderna booster once we can do this.
    A friend’s mum died of Covid in Brazil recently, and that has sharpened my focus.

  36. Quasar

    What’s really scaring me is Gladys and her attitude. At one point during a covid press conference some months ago she revealed that “living with the virus” will mean no daily infection figures. You’ll only get to hear about it if its a hospitalisation. Same as the flu, right? Only one problem with this.

    In order to get to the state where we don’t get daily stats on infections, we’re also going to have to surrender what comes with it, all those public health alerts and exposure site information. This is the core of our public health response. No more trace and isolate.

    So we’re going to gut our public health response. That’s the inescapable conclusion you have to come to if you take Gladys on her word.

    The only thing that can save us from this madness is herd immunity. And herd immunity seems to be another unspeakable phrase, along with “elimination”. Sad thing is, I think a lot of ordinary people implicitly believe that the vaccine is all about herd immunity. But this isn’t the attitude of Gladys, Brendan and the like. Unpack some of their public statements (and Scomo’s “thousand cases a day”) and what you actually get is the official policy that the virus will spread widely through the community like a flu and that the vaccine is just there to stop people getting seriously ill.

    Which kinda ignores all the unvaccinated people that will die and get seriously ill as a result of anything other than herd immunity. And the fact that covid is still 10 times more deadly than the flu.

  37. Quasar

    I’ve lost a couple of extended family in the US and UK. I’m certainly getting a booster as soon as an upgraded vaccine is available. Possibly Moderna late this year or early next year. My mum is also keen to do this. She would like to travel (UK) in 2023. Its a conference that only comes around once every 5 years and it may be her last opportunity.

    The thing I fear most now is an early election. Doing so allows Scumo to then fuck up the border with impunity not long after. All this bitching about “there will always be covid out there so we’ll have to deal with it” ignores the fact that there are many reasons to feel optimistic about the rest of the world sorting itself out during 2022.

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