Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 35, Greens 12

A second poll finds strong support for the budget and weakening personal numbers for Anthony Albanese, without translating into a boost for the government on voting intention.

The Age/Herald have published the second poll in their new monthly federal series from Resolve Strategic, which has naturally been timed to follow up on last week’s budget. The first thing to be noted is that whatever caused an implausible reading of 6% for One Nation last time has been addressed, with the effect that both major parties are up on the primary vote — the Coalition by one to 39% and Labor by two to 35% — while the Greens are steady on 12% and One Nation are down to 2%. This series makes a big play of not publishing a two-party result, but the result would be 51-49 to Labor if preference flows from the 2019 election were applied.

Scott Morrison’s approval rating -– or more precisely, those who rated his performance in recent weeks as very good or good –- is up three points to 53%, while his disapproval is steady on 38%. Anthony Albanese is down three to 32%, and his disapproval is up four to 45%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed at 48-25, compared with 47-25 last time.

The breakdowns showed no significant gender gap last time, but they do this time: the Coalition now leads 44% to 31% among men, compared with 38% to 34% last time, while Labor leads 38% to 34% among women, compared with a 38% to 33% deficit last time. The poll also finds Labor doing quite a bit better than last time in New South Wales and the Coalition doing quite a bit better in Victoria, to the extent that Victoria is the stronger state overall for the Coalition, which is not how things normally go.

The budget scored well, with 56% rating it very good or good for the country as a whole, with a mere 10% rated it bad or very bad, the remainder being either neutral or undecided. Thirty-five per cent felt it would be very good or good for their household finances, compared with 17% for bad or very bad. More specific responses on budget initiatives can be found in the accompanying report.

The poll also found 59% opposed to an early election with only “one in five” in support. The results display feature also includes regular results on best party to handle various issues, and a finding that 46% expect the Coalition to win the next election compared with 21% for Labor. The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1600; precise field work dates are not provided as far as I can tell, unless we’re to take it that the poll was conducted entirely on Sunday (UPDATE: The report notes it was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1622).

Also out today is a second tranche of results from Newspoll courtesy of The Australian, including the regular post-budget question on whether the opposition would have done a better job: 33% believed so, the same as last year, compared with 46% who did not, down three. “A Coalition goverment led by Scott Morrison” was rated better to guide Australia’s recovery by 54% compared with 32% for “a Labor government led by Anthony Albanese”. Sixty per cent thought the government right to stimulate the economy at the cost of higher debt, compared with 30% who thought the government should be doing more to rein in spending and reduce debt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,306 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 35, Greens 12”

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  1. Bill Shorten
    @billshortenmp
    ·
    9m
    When will the Morrison Government stop pitting people with a disability against older Australians in some Hunger Games-style nightmare. COVID has not ended for any of our vulnerable Aussies.

  2. Global Cartoon Wrap:

    From the UK:
    Martin Rowson has produced my favourite cartoon of the year thus far. Anyone who can jam in so much detail whilst being inspired by Escher has my vote.




    David Ziggy Greene (S&H illustrated reports)
    @SaHreports
    ·
    13h
    Just done the best Nigel Farage I’ve ever drawn

    Canada:



    Ireland:
    A comic strip Harry Burton made on the ever evolving presence of #vulturefunds in Ireland. #housingcrisis

    India:








    NZ:

    Malaysia:

    Netherlands:




    France:

    Suspicions of fraud at the RN: a police report overwhelms Marine Le Pen

    XKCD:

    Around the world via the Daily Cartoonist:



  3. I am seeing more of this on twitter.

    @AlboMP tweets
    After eight long years, the LNP have cut 140,000 apprentices and trainees.

    I will rebuild TAFE – including 10,000 New Energy Apprentices trained in the renewable industries of the future.

    These are secure jobs with a bright future. Labor will back them all the way.
    _____________
    I am hoping I will see advertising on YouTube at campaign time.
    At least Labor is starting to get its message out there. It’s a big mountain to get Labor’s message out.

  4. I might be wrong but my impression over the last several decades is that oppositions usually get substantial leads in the polls in mid-term but people come back to governments on polling day.

  5. An updated version of my post at the end of the previous thread, but relating directly to this one:

    “ “ Poll/survey from Resolve Strategic for Nine/Fairfax.

    LNP 39%, Labor 35%, Green 12%.”

    _____

    So 15% for ‘others’.

    So, if ‘others’ maintain the 2019 enthusiasm to use their preference votes as a funnel to the LNP then 2PP would be about 51/59 to Labor at an educated guess.

    But if ‘others’ is a more likely 50-50 (and I think absent Labor’s own goals that led to the Palmer/ON/LNP social media scare campaign then it is at least about that level) then 2PP would probably be 52/48 to Labor; and

    If the ‘others’ want to do the traditional thing and protest the actual government of the day, rather than some imagined labor alternative and hence the ‘others’ preferences split 60-40 to Labor, then 2PP might be nudging 53/47 to Labor on those primaries.

    Personally I think the budget will be a slow burn that favours the Government over the next couple of months, but by mid year delivery and actual achievements will provide the litmus test (and probably determine whether there is an election later this year or early next year). Morrison is trying to outdo labor on its traditional strengths, in the knowledge that a compliant media and the general public will cut a LNP government a heck of a lot more slack than Labor on ‘debt and deficit’ because the Liberals are ‘superior economic managers’ (a meme that was created as another Labor own goal back in the period 1996-2003, when successive Labor Leaders and economic spokesmen indulged themselves in an ongoing ‘National sorry tour’ for the Hawke-Keating government, thereby gifting the political bounty for the hard reform work of that government to the lying little rodent and his Melbourne spiv sidekick. The legacy of which still looms massively on today’s political landscape. Thanks a bunch guys).

  6. Morrison is doing a presser.

    It looks like a campaign stop to me.
    Edit: sounds like he is claiming Labor will waste money in building housing. Throws in increasing taxes.

    Very GOP.

  7. “Morrison” was trending in Australia on twitter – and up bobbed this under that search:

    Mike Dawson
    @mike_daws
    ·
    9h
    if you ever feel down about what’s become of aging British rockers like Eric Clapton or Van Morrison and their gross toxic displays, remember Doctor Brian May, who has spent many of his Golden Years steadily advocating for the rights of the noble English badger

  8. BB, I am offended that the Virgin CEO wants to get everyone flying again even at the risk of Covid deaths. I understand that her backers, US venture capitalists Bain Capital, want a return on their investment

    Not sure that Virgin spokesperson mentioned anything about everyone needs to vaccinated, that we need a program for annual booster shots.

    Our hospital system has been so starved of Commonwealth funds it’s at breaking point with ambulances ramping thoughout the country. Australia didn’t have a flu season in 2020 and most elective surgeries were cancelled.

    Who will be the sacrificial lambs to be slaughtered
    – health care workers dealing with the sick
    – people living in shared accommodations, aged care, disability housing, jails,
    – the frail

    Frail elderly with Covid might have a swifter more merciful death that existing NEGLECTED in aged care homes

    BUT what about the health costs to the community of caring for sufferers of LONG TERM COVID and the loss of productivity

  9. “Rudd had firmly established his ascendancy over Howard. Labor was not split. Neither value applies now.”

    What a load of old cobblers. I distinctly remember conversations I had with powerful members of the Union Movement in NSW and federally, and in the NSW ALP, who were split over Kevin Rudd himself! They were unhappy when he became leader and they seriously were considering getting rid of him as leader when he was leader, as he was not a man of the factions. The only reason they never moved against him was because they could see how well-supported he was in the electorate.

  10. guytaur @ #8 Tuesday, May 18th, 2021 – 10:08 am

    Morrison is doing a presser.

    It looks like a campaign stop to me.
    Edit: sounds like he is claiming Labor will waste money in building housing. Throws in increasing taxes.

    Very GOP.

    You know what’s a waste of money? HomeBuilder. Throwing taxpayers’ $$ at people who already own their own home or are paying it off and contributing to the price spiral that means too many people are unable to get on the home-owning ladder.

  11. @ABarrMLA tweets

    The truth is that Canberra has better coffee than Melbourne.

    Soon it will be much cheaper and easier for those in Melbourne to experience it for themselves.

    @RexAirlines are starting a twice-daily Canberra-Melbourne service from June 10 with one-way economy fares at $69.

    __________
    Fighting words over coffee.

  12. “Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Tuesday, May 18, 2021 at 10:05 am
    I might be wrong but my impression over the last several decades is that oppositions usually get substantial leads in the polls in mid-term but people come back to governments on polling day.”

    Except the polls leading up to 2007 and 2014 elections.

  13. Not that I intend to fly anytime soon but if I had to it wouldn’t be with Virgin. What a dumb thing to say, her not me. Well maybe both of us. 🙂

  14. “Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Tuesday, May 18, 2021 at 10:07 am
    An updated version of my post at the end of the previous thread, but relating directly to this one:
    (a meme that was created as another Labor own goal back in the period 1996-2003, when successive Labor Leaders and economic spokesmen indulged themselves in an ongoing ‘National sorry tour’ for the Hawke-Keating government, thereby gifting the political bounty for the hard reform work of that government to the lying little rodent and his Melbourne spiv sidekick. The legacy of which still looms massively on today’s political landscape. Thanks a bunch guys).”

    And they were Dynasts

  15. Virgin had that annoying slapstick version of the safety announcement early doors.

    I just want to know where the life vest is and what to do it with it, thanks.

  16. The speed at which Scotty and Gladys are backpedalling away from Jayne Hrdlicka’s comments, any bets on who will be Virgin Australia’s next CEO?

  17. Virgin had that annoying slapstick version of the safety announcement early doors.

    I just want to know where the life vest is and what to do it with it, thanks.

    You won’t like the overly long, history of Qantas safety video then… (The sick bag should be in your seat pocket.)

  18. (Re A_E @ 9:58 previous thread)

    “Poll/survey from Resolve Strategic for Nine/Fairfax.

    LNP 39%, Labor 35%, Green 12%.”

    My back of the envelope 2PP calculation:

    L/NP 39+2 =41, Labor 35+10 =45.

    That leaves 15 “Other” – say 6 for One Nation/Far Right, 9 Independent/other.

    This could give Labor a 2PP of 45+2+4.5 = 51.5.

    So Labor 51-52. Would be great to see at an actual election.

  19. From the previous thread.

    Bushfire Bill @ #548 Tuesday, May 18th, 2021 – 6:56 am

    @Jordonsteele calls out Virgin CEO Jayne Hrdlicka’s comments that some may die if international borders reopen but it will be smaller than the flu.

    “Just accepting people may die, as a disabled person who is part of that community, that is extraordinarily offensive language.”

    It’s now “offensive” to say that people may die from COVID? Since when? And why does being disabled qualify Jordan Steele to be offended in particular?

    We accept that people will die in road collisions, but still permit cars. We accept that people will die from flu, yet don’t prohibit them from crowded shopping malls. We allow sunbaking, but know this will cause melanoma. We know that people die during minor routine surgery, but let plastic surgeons ply their trade. People are going to die on any one day for any number of reasons, including SARS-CoV-2 infection.

    There’s a risk to everything.

    And as with all those things we endeavour to minimise those risks and find a balance.

    She seems to be suggesting that her companies operations are worth more than some people’s lives and that we should open up before we have minimised the risk.

    I’m not disabled and I agree I don’t understand why being disabled is a needed qualifier for offence,
    but I find her comments offensive.

  20. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, May 18, 2021 at 10:23 am
    @ABarrMLA tweets
    The truth is that Canberra has better coffee than Melbourne.
    Soon it will be much cheaper and easier for those in Melbourne to experience it for themselves.
    @RexAirlines are starting a twice-daily Canberra-Melbourne service from June 10 with one-way economy fares at $69.
    __________
    Fighting words over coffee.

    It’s amazing how many people in hi-viz (aka tradies) frequent coffee shops all over Canberra. Even the industrial suburb of Fyshwick has seen an explosion of new coffee places. Perhaps tradies here don’t seem too worried about being members of the “latte set”. I don’t know if that applies throughout the rest of the country.

  21. the Coalition by one to 39%
    ——————————–

    With a primary vote of 39% on election day , the lib/nats will be in opposition

  22. Dutton’s training as a plod in the QPS drug squad would’ve made him aware that the less who knew of a drug operation, the better the chance of success. Extrapolated, the same applies to Defence and that’s why he’s turfing uniformed personnel from his office, attempting to restrict leaks. I’d say that after he publicly humiliated Campbell over SAS citations, his support among senior officers would be at a very low ebb. He needs to watch his back. Attempting to ingratiate himself with the lower ranks at the cost of the brass is a dangerous tack for him to take. I do hope the Defence portfolio brings an end to his less than distinguished career.

  23. The facts are the liberal/Qlp Lp only have 60 seats in the house of reps, well behind Labor’s 68 seats

    The lib/QLDLp and National/QldNp combined primary vote needs to be higher than 40% to make a contest of upcoming federal election

  24. A simple rule of thumb for me is over 40% primary and the coalition will probably win with majority. Under 40% is hung parliament territory. So in that respect this poll is encouraging. Unfortunately for labor they continue to languish in the low, or at best, mid 30s. That is definitely not majority government territory for them.

    Labor long term may have to resign themselves to best case being minority government with the greens. And for their part,the greens should recognise this too and start working with labor electorally. I would encourage them to stop trying to win labor seats. Labor could return the favour by giving the greens a free run in liberal seats they have a chance in. Like it or not, there just aren’t any viable alternatives in parliament to support a minority labor government. There are no more Windsors or Oakshotts. All indies these days are just lib wannabes.

  25. BB

    People get offended when a government is deciding if you live and die instead of doing everything to help you.

    I can understand why some people get upset, even offended, on some occasions when governments decide whether “you live and die”, but I think Steele’s over-egging it a bit on this occasion.

    There is always a trade-off. I worry that there are too many who believe the only acceptable death rate from COVID is literally zero. “Any death from COVID is one too many,” a nice rhetorical point to make, but is utterly impractical to effect. You just can’t regulate a nation of 25 million individuals and millions of businesses to achieve zero deaths (from anything, much less a novel pandemic), except by completely shutting it down… which in effect destroys it.

    Here’s a question: IF we DID completely shut down the economy and society in order to protect everyone from death by COVID, how would the subsequent suicide of a bankrupted business person be characterized? COVID-related? Or just a sad outcome?

    Also, why Jordan Steele reserves a special right to himself as a member of the disabled community to complain about an airline manager’s discussion of “risk versus outcone” regarding COVID, escapes me. I could understand a complaint regarding “government policy versus reality” when poor vaccination rates of disabled people are brought up, but not as regards airline manager’s talking about their own businesses.

    Too many people are too ready to get “offended” lately. Subjective perceptions of “offence” are being given too much priority over more reasonable community-wide standards, in my opinion, especially when those personal perceptions are used to regulate behaviour in the wider community.

    I’m not a crazy libertarian, “law of the jungle” campaigner. But I do think that the personal standards of some minorities, in some circumstances, and a readiness to be “offended” over them have been impingeing too far on wider community standards of late. Of course we take precautions, but at some stage regarding COVID – as with everything – “risk” versus “reward” will have to be balanced off against each other.

    My thoughts are that Jordan Steele playing the “Disabled” card, where being disabled is irrelevant to the particular discussion at hand, is an example of that.

  26. Citizen

    It’s amazing how many people in hi-viz (aka tradies) frequent coffee shops all over Canberra. Even the industrial suburb of Fyshwick has seen an explosion of new coffee places. Perhaps tradies here don’t seem too worried about being members of the “latte set”. I don’t know if that applies throughout the rest of the country.

    ____________________________________________

    I’ve never thought about it before, but you’re dead right.

  27. Hartcher’s article is interesting. It is largely a mini-me of a much lengthier article in the Global Times. I briefly discussed the GT article in Bludger.

    Hartcher adds nothing much new to the GT article, IMO. In fact, I would rate the article as lazy.

    Hartcher omits four salient features:

    1. The difficulty for the CPC and Xi to admit that the population crisis is their own doing. As we saw with the China side behaviours towards the WHO Team, accountability must be avoided at all costs. One result is that the domestic China debate is conducted using… Chinese walls, silences and allusions.

    2. The tens of millions of female fetuses aborted. Any ‘debate’ just has to be attended by the massive emotional cost.

    3. The presence of several tens of millions of spare males. Any ‘debate’ MUST be attended by a significant army of Chinese INCELS.

    4. A view that the official ‘1.3’ is actually closer to ‘1.1’. In other words even Chinese commentators INSIDE China are willing to suggest that the rate is significantly worse than the official figures indicate.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-could-be-the-first-country-to-get-old-before-it-gets-rich-and-the-implications-are-profound-20210517-p57sj6.html

    There is a kicker, IMO. The question is this: How does the population crisis impact on CPC, PLA, Xi t hinking about the urgency of getting the Taiwan Thing done?

  28. A week after the budget Morrison just wants to talk about what labor would do.
    Is this a record for a budget sinking without trace?

  29. BB

    Nah. It’s a particular offence. You don’t need to be disabled. You just have greater experience at the government treating people as second class citizens

    Just like Trans people have more experience of discrimination than I do as a gay man.

    We will hear more about this stuff from the right as the easier access to contraceptives gets up the nose of RW cultural warriors.

  30. A week after the budget Morrison just wants to talk about what labor would do.

    Is this a record for a budget sinking without trace?

    Good observation.

    Morrison much prefers to attack than to defend.

  31. The last time the libs/nats held onto government with a combined primary vote under 40% was in 1999, due to a landslide win in 1996 where the lib/nats could afford to lose more than 13 seats to remain in government .

    2013 federal election

    Libs/nats combined primary vote of 45%+ = 90 seats

    2016
    Lib/nats combined primary vote of 42+ = 76 seats

    2019

    Libs/nats combined primary vote 41%+ = 77 seats

    —————————–

    Labor primary vote was roughly 33%+ 2013-2019

    2013 Labor had 54 seats

    2016 Labor 69 seats

    2019 Labor 68 seats
    ———————–

    Labor can get their primary vote to 36%+ minority – slim chance of majority
    Labor can get their primary vote to 38% +Reasonable size majority Labor to get over 80 seats in the house of reps

  32. Jordan Steele is presumably alluding to the fact that only about 4% of disabled people have been vaccinated, despite being tagged as one of the vulnerable and high priority groups.

    Going carte blanche with travel and borders now would place a disproportionate risk on disabled people – who are not only more vulnerable to covid, but also mostly not vaccinated.

    The CEO of Virgin is presumably fit and healthy and not in any vulnerable group. So yeah, I can understand Jordan feeling offended (as a disabled person) by her comments.

  33. BB

    When Australia opens up there will be an increase in Covid and flu cases. Health care workers will be most vulnerable to contracting Covid as they care for the sick. So let’s get everyone immunised. Quite sure Virgin CEO is fully immunised with Pfizer vax.

    You might think that Jordan-Steele is using his wheelchair as a weapon but people who are wheelchair bound are more health compromised individuals. The human body remains healthy when its standing, walking straining those muscles. J-S will be susceptible to kidney infections and lung problems

    What % of the population is disabled?
    I don’t know.
    But I do know that disabled people are hidden away due to limited mobility, poverty and shame at their social disruption

    When your small grandchild breaks an arm do you want kid to be fobbed off with a fresh resident plastering her compound fracture because health care workers overwhelmed by Covid numbers taking up beds and making health work force sick
    Bet you wants kid seen to immediately and taken to operating theatre to set that arm properly

    Thinking infections in toes – hope your neighbour is OK

    less SUICIDES were recorded in Victoria than previous years

  34. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, May 18, 2021 at 11:05 am
    Is voting history really much use in determining the results of a future election?

    ———-

    To a certain extent – the lib/nats combined primary dropped 4% from 2013-2019

    They had a comfortable majority in 2013 to a slim majority (2021)

    it shows that the libs/nats will unlikely be able to form minority government with a combined primary vote of under 40%

  35. Just that government’s tend to get a surge as the disinterested but vaguely content walk into the booths.
    I guess there are baseball bat elections but despite the thoughts of PBers, there is no evidence yet that Morrison is in that category

  36. shellbell says:
    Tuesday, May 18, 2021 at 10:32 am
    Virgin had that annoying slapstick version of the safety announcement early doors.
    I just want to know where the life vest is and what to do it with it, thanks.

    I had assumed that when oxygen masks were deployed, they were connected to a cylinder of O2. An episode of Air Crash Investigation explained that each mask was connected to a container holding two chemicals that mixed and created O2 when the mask was deployed.

    The context was a fire starting in the overhead lockers that occurred when a mask was deployed due to severe aircraft movement, heat was created from the chemicals mixing, there was petrol vapour in the lockers from two bottles containing petrol(!) and a motorcycle battery(!) with exposed wires that arced causing the petrol vapour to ignite.

  37. U.S. COVID update: New cases down 23% from last week, number in hospital below 30K

    – New cases: 26,094 …………………….. – New deaths: 374

    – In hospital: 29,908 (-194)
    – In ICU: 8,120 (-22)

    600,529 total deaths now

  38. Why are disabled people “more vulnerable to COVID”?

    I get that some, with disabilities that affect their immune systems, may be, but why “disabled people” as a demographic?

    I can understand and accept Jordan Steele being “angry” at being part of a demographic that has been under-vaccinated. So are all demographics incidentally. But “offended”?

    I think “offended” is a much misused word of late. Being “offended” gets you further than just being “angry”, especially if you class yourself as being part of an oppressed minority. Someone whose “angry” at this or that can be legitimately (or illegitimately for that matter) criticised for being overly dramatic, or self-centered. But you’re walking on egg shells if you question someone’s personal right to be “offended”.

    “I’m offended” is too often used as a trump card, or a conversation stopper. Woe betide anyone who dares question its uttering.

  39. Oakeshott Country says:
    Tuesday, May 18, 2021 at 11:12 am
    Just that government’s tend to get a surge as the disinterested but vaguely content walk into the booths.
    I guess there are baseball bat elections but despite the thoughts of PBers, there is no evidence yet that Morrison is in that category

    —————————————-

    People thought that about Turnbull too, its not the voters who decide the liberal party leader its newsltd and the liberal party members ,who knows Frydenberg or Dutton again could stop an early election by putting up a challenge, Turnbull was going to call the election 6 months early

  40. BB

    You sound like Ben Shapiro and David Rubin.

    That’s very right wing social justice warrior speech. Such snowflakes. Stop being angry at people getting offended and angry.

    Brace yourself June is Pride month.
    You will see much whining from those snowflakes as people are out celebrating just being themselves.

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