Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A favourable reaction to the budget yields no benefit to the Coalition on voting intention, according to the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports Labor has retained its 51-49 lead in the post-budget poll, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (unchanged), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up two) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is down a point on approval to 58% and up one on disapproval to 38%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 39% and up three to 46%, which equals his worst ever net rating from Newspoll. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed at 55-30, compared with 56-30 last time.

Regarding the budget, the poll found 44% of respondents expecting it would be good for the economy compared with 15% for bad. On the question of the its personal impact, the better off and worse off responses both scored 19%, with a strikingly high 62% unable to say. There was presumably also a question on whether the opposition would have done a better job, as per Newspoll’s long-established practice — I’ll add that and any further detail as it becomes available.

UPDATE: The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1506. No result yet for the “would the opposition have done better” question, probably because The Australian is saving it for tomorrow. Out of 34 post-budget Newspolls going back to 1988, this is the eighth best result for impact on personal finances and the sixth best for impact on the economy.

The chart below plots the one series against the other, with the present result shown in red. This is near the trendline, suggesting no particular tendency for the budget’s economic impact to be seen as more positive (as tended to be the case in the Howard goverment’s early budgets) than the personal impact (which rated higher in the last three budgets), relative to the favourable reception for the budget overall.

The best received budgets mostly came during the golden age of government revenue from 2004 to 2008: the best of all, on both personal and economic impact, was the one that preceded the Howard government’s defeat in 2007.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

587 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Bird of paradox says:
    Tuesday, May 18, 2021 at 1:01 am

    Given the size of the Scottish population compared to the total UK and the size of the SNP vote in Scotland it appears about right to me.

  2. I can’t really understand a narcissist but it seems we’re looking at a slow mo meltdown of one in Scott (Red Carpet) Morrison.
    Seriously, the only reason he’d be getting a red carpet would be because he’d asked for it, either directly or through the PM’s office.
    The fact that his head is that swollen that he thinks he deserves it is almost as disturbing as a senior Air Force officer actually conceding to the demand.
    You’d think after Engadine Macca’s no-one would want to let Morrison anywhere near a Red Carpet. Brown maybe, but not red.

  3. lizzie @ #522 Tuesday, May 18th, 2021 – 7:48 am

    This is Porter protecting himself (with Morrison’s help) ahead of 4Corners report, I believe.

    Brittany Higgins
    @BrittHiggins_
    · 22h
    Parliament House staff have been cautioned to stay silent when approached by media or face the consequences.

    DPS staff who now speak publicly “could be found in breach of the code of conduct as well as the Criminal Code Act, which carries a prison term of up to two years”. twitter.com/canberratimes/…

    The Ministers? Never!

  4. Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, May 18, 2021 at 8:26 am
    Re Bucephalus @12:00

    Westminster Voting Intention…

    Those numbers suggest a Centre-Left : Right split of 49-43, with 8% voting for someone else.

    They show that political expression in Britain is focused on xenophobic/separatist/nationalist aspirations. Really, this threatens the constitutional deal that has held for the past 3 centuries. The class-based alignment that defined politics through most of the 20th century has been replaced.

  5. Morrison displays all the hallmarks of a deeply inadequate person. Controlling, brittle, unable to accept criticism, the need of bells, buttons and bows, and carpets, and most dangerously, the need to outsource morality to a confected anthropomorphic deity who indulges corrupt self aggrandisement as a sign of divine favour.

    Or something like that.

    In common parlance, he’s a tool.

  6. BK @ #539 Tuesday, May 18th, 2021 – 8:39 am

    Australia’s policy U-turn on China came after the intelligence community identified alarming Chinese designs on corrupting our political system. But were they the right responses, explores Max Suich in a long essay.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/china-confrontation-what-were-we-thinking-20210429-p57njs

    Why on earth would the Chinese need to corrupt our political system? Were we not doing it fast enough ourselves to suit them?

  7. Word of the day (from Spooner’s cartoon):

    casuistry /ˈkazjʊɪstri,ˈkaʒjʊɪstri/
    noun

    1. the use of clever but unsound reasoning, especially in relation to moral questions; sophistry.
    “the minister is engaging in nothing more or less than casuistry”

    2. the resolving of moral problems by the application of theoretical rules.

  8. Positive thought for the day (before mundo comes along with his, more in sorrow than in anger schtick):

    John Lindsay
    @bigjsl
    ·
    May 17
    Remember when Costello handed down a budget then John Howard lost his own seat six months later? Bet Morrison does.

    Think positive!

  9. Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    ·
    18m
    Linfox Airports Group Chair tells @3AWNeilMitchell it’d “be a piece of cake” to have a quarantine facility “set up in 6 months” – so it would’ve been done by now if there’d been a tick last year.
    David Fox says they’re now looking at a special sports-bubble-site for major events.

  10. I suspect that if Morrison loses the next election we’ll see a repeat of Trump denialism and potentially violence from the RWNJ cheer squad.
    If he loses his seat it’ll be worse, God will have abandoned Australia for some such rot along with Newscorp questioning the legitimacy of the election result.
    If he wins everyone who is not a RWNJ Pentecostal will lose.

  11. C@tmomma @ #553 Tuesday, May 18th, 2021 – 9:05 am

    lizzie @ #522 Tuesday, May 18th, 2021 – 7:48 am

    This is Porter protecting himself (with Morrison’s help) ahead of 4Corners report, I believe.

    Brittany Higgins
    @BrittHiggins_
    · 22h
    Parliament House staff have been cautioned to stay silent when approached by media or face the consequences.

    DPS staff who now speak publicly “could be found in breach of the code of conduct as well as the Criminal Code Act, which carries a prison term of up to two years”. twitter.com/canberratimes/…

    The Ministers? Never!

    A reply to Brittany Higgins Tweet:

    Hugh Riminton
    @hughriminton

    This government is very keen to threaten the citizenry with jail terms all of a sudden.

  12. They are Liberal. They lie:

    Luke Henriques-Gomes
    @lukehgomes
    ·
    33m
    David Littleproud was asked on RN this morning if it was acceptable that fewer than 1,000 people with disability in residential settings had been vaccinated.

    He replied: “Yes because it’s part of the scheduled roll out.”

    Disability care residents are in phase 1a. #auspol

    He also stated, incorrectly, there had been no cases of disability workers or people with disability.

    There have been plenty of cases, as well as at least eight NDIS participant deaths, and one disability support worker who died.

  13. Good Morning

    Smaug
    I suspect you are right. However unlike the US we have had some right wing terrorists arrested before the election.

    One Nations vote has collapsed. Hopefully enough of those voters are voting Labor on economic grounds for Labor to win.

    So I am hoping you are wrong on the violent response.

  14. Wendy Bacon
    @Wendy_Bacon
    ·
    1h
    What exactly is the role of #Aspen Medical in vaccination program? How much are they being paid? Was it #Aspen’s choice to delay on disability sector? Or #Health or #Hunt policy? PLEASE asks these Qs
    @frankelly08
    @RNBreakfast

  15. John Lindsay
    @bigjsl
    ·
    May 17
    Remember when Costello handed down a budget then John Howard lost his own seat six months later? Bet Morrison does.

    Rudd had firmly established his ascendancy over Howard. Labor was not split. Neither value applies now.

  16. Two paragraphs freighted with meaning but left unsaid about NSW Coalition MP, Gareth Ward who is under investigation for sexual violence offences:

    Mr Ward, 39, has been active in the Young Liberals since he was aged 16 and remains heavily involved, including mentoring and employing young party members in his electorate office.

    He had RSVP’d to attend the annual NSW Young Liberals ball on Saturday night at Doltone House but sent his apologies late on Friday after the revelations against him emerged.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberal-mps-will-wait-for-byelection-before-counselling-gareth-ward-on-political-future-20210517-p57sno.html

  17. BB

    People get offended when a government is deciding if you live and die instead of doing everything to help you.

    See Bill Shorten on the NDIS as to why disabled people are worried about the government. See cartons regarding empathy training.

    In the meantime don’t be such a snowflake about people getting offended.

  18. “ Poll/survey from Resolve Strategic for Nine/Fairfax.

    LNP 39%, Labor 35%, Green 12%.”

    15% for ‘others’.

    So, if ‘others’ maintain the 2019 enthusiasm to use their preference votes as a funnel to the LNP then 2PP would be about 51/59 to Labor at an educated guess. If ‘others’ is a more likely 50-50 (and I think absent Labor’s own goals that led to the Palmer/ON/LNP social media scare campaign then it is at least about that level) then 2PP would probably be 52/48 to Labor and if the ‘others’ want to do the traditional thing and protest the actual government of the day, rather than some imagined labor alternative and hence the ‘others’ preferences split 60-40 to Labor, then 2PP might be nudging 53/47 to Labor on those primaries.

  19. BK – thanks for your round up

    A friend was telling us how wonderful the new Apple watch was.
    It had raised the alarm when someone was chopping garlic and can be worn in the shower, 90% of falls occur in the shower.

    As I live alone I thought it sounded like a sensible purchase so trotted off to the Apple store, chose the face and the band debated about whether I needed internet access and what that would do to my phone plan, had credit card at the ready to tap. Oh no, your phone is too old to work with Apple watch. Looked at new iPhones.

    Went home checked the Choice reports, phone I want, iPhone 11 Pro Max, is at JB HiFi. Spending $3,000 today on new phone & watch is a bridge too far.

    Settled for a $99 Fitbit – for now

  20. Re N @9:42

    “Rudd had firmly established his ascendancy over Howard. Labor was not split. Neither value applies now.”

    Certainly true. Kevin Rudd was very popular. The “vibe” was that the Howard Government was finished, even though there was no particular animosity towards him except from those who would never vote Coalition.

    The “vibe” for change was there in 1975 and 2013, with the PM and Opposition Leader both unpopular.

    It was there in 1972 and 1983 with an unpopular PM and very popular Opposition Leader.

    It was there in 1996 with a very unpopular PM and an Opposition Leader who didn’t scare the horses (but should have).

    There’s no “vibe” now. Like Howard, Morrison is quite popular except with people who would never vote Coalition. However, the Opposition Leader is neither popular nor unpopular. He’s not cutting through. Many punters probably don’t know who the Opposition Leader is. There’s no “vibe” for change.

    Mind you, the vibe isn’t always right. It was there during the first half of 2001.

  21. “Rudd had firmly established his ascendancy over Howard. Labor was not split. Neither value applies now.”

    What a load of old cobblers. I distinctly remember conversations I had with powerful members of the Union Movement in NSW and federally, and in the NSW ALP, who were split over Kevin Rudd himself! They were unhappy when he became leader and they seriously were considering getting rid of him as leader when he was leader, as he was not a man of the factions. The only reason they never moved against him was because they could see how well-supported he was in the electorate.

  22. C@t “The only reason they never moved against him was because they could see how well-supported he was in the electorate.”

    And that’s all that mattered.

  23. “Poll/survey from Resolve Strategic for Nine/Fairfax.

    LNP 39%, Labor 35%, Green 12%.”

    My back of the envelope 2PP calculation:

    L/NP 39+2 =41, Labor 35+10 =45.

    That leaves 15 “Other” – say 6 for One Nation/Far Right, 9 Independent/other.

    This could give Labor a 2PP of 45+2+4.5 = 51.5.

    So Labor 51-52. Would be great to see at an actual election.

  24. Bushfire Bill @ #548 Tuesday, May 18th, 2021 – 6:56 am

    @Jordonsteele calls out Virgin CEO Jayne Hrdlicka’s comments that some may die if international borders reopen but it will be smaller than the flu.

    “Just accepting people may die, as a disabled person who is part of that community, that is extraordinarily offensive language.”

    It’s now “offensive” to say that people may die from COVID? Since when? And why does being disabled qualify Jordan Steele to be offended in particular?

    We accept that people will die in road collisions, but still permit cars. We accept that people will die from flu, yet don’t prohibit them from crowded shopping malls. We allow sunbaking, but know this will cause melanoma. We know that people die during minor routine surgery, but let plastic surgeons ply their trade. People are going to die on any one day for any number of reasons, including SARS-CoV-2 infection.

    There’s a risk to everything.

    And as with all those things we endeavour to minimise those risks and find a balance.

    She seems to be suggesting that her companies operations are worth more than some people’s lives and that we should open up before we have minimised the risk.

    I’m not disabled and I agree I don’t understand why being disabled is a needed qualifier for offence,
    but I find her comments offensive.

  25. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #581 Tuesday, May 18th, 2021 – 10:33 am

    Bushfire Bill @ #548 Tuesday, May 18th, 2021 – 6:56 am

    @Jordonsteele calls out Virgin CEO Jayne Hrdlicka’s comments that some may die if international borders reopen but it will be smaller than the flu.

    “Just accepting people may die, as a disabled person who is part of that community, that is extraordinarily offensive language.”

    It’s now “offensive” to say that people may die from COVID? Since when? And why does being disabled qualify Jordan Steele to be offended in particular?

    We accept that people will die in road collisions, but still permit cars. We accept that people will die from flu, yet don’t prohibit them from crowded shopping malls. We allow sunbaking, but know this will cause melanoma. We know that people die during minor routine surgery, but let plastic surgeons ply their trade. People are going to die on any one day for any number of reasons, including SARS-CoV-2 infection.

    There’s a risk to everything.

    And as with all those things we endeavour to minimise those risks and find a balance.

    She seems to be suggesting that her companies operations are worth more than some people’s lives and that we should open up before we have minimised the risk.

    I’m not disabled and I agree I don’t understand why being disabled is a needed qualifier for offence,
    but I find her comments offensive.

    Actually what’s not being reported from this interview is his savaging of the government over the ‘incompetence’.

  26. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-cnn-email-phone-records/2021/05/20/457daa70-b9bc-11eb-96b9-e949d5397de9_story.html

    The Justice Department under President Donald Trump secretly obtained the phone and email records of CNN’s Pentagon correspondent, according to that news network and a Justice Department spokesman, again illustrating how the previous administration was willing to seek journalists’ data to investigate disclosures of information it preferred to remain secret.

    CNN reported Thursday that the department had informed Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr that it had obtained her phone and email records for the two-month period between June 1, 2017, and July 31, 2017.

    In that time frame, according to CNN, Starr reported on options the military had prepared to present to Trump on North Korea, U.S. action on a possible planned chemical attack in Syria and a military policy change to suspend the public release of information about American combat deaths in Afghanistan.

    The network reported that a May 13 letter from the Justice Department disclosing the move “listed phone numbers for Starr’s Pentagon extension, the CNN Pentagon booth phone number and her home and cellphones, as well as Starr’s work and personal email accounts.” The letter said investigators had obtained what are known as phone “toll records,” which include calls made to and from the targeted phone and their duration, and “non-content information” from email accounts, according to CNN.

    ————

    Dictatorship….

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