The Australian reports Labor has retained its 51-49 lead in the post-budget poll, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (unchanged), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up two) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is down a point on approval to 58% and up one on disapproval to 38%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 39% and up three to 46%, which equals his worst ever net rating from Newspoll. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed at 55-30, compared with 56-30 last time.
Regarding the budget, the poll found 44% of respondents expecting it would be good for the economy compared with 15% for bad. On the question of the its personal impact, the better off and worse off responses both scored 19%, with a strikingly high 62% unable to say. There was presumably also a question on whether the opposition would have done a better job, as per Newspoll’s long-established practice — I’ll add that and any further detail as it becomes available.
UPDATE: The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1506. No result yet for the “would the opposition have done better” question, probably because The Australian is saving it for tomorrow. Out of 34 post-budget Newspolls going back to 1988, this is the eighth best result for impact on personal finances and the sixth best for impact on the economy.
The chart below plots the one series against the other, with the present result shown in red. This is near the trendline, suggesting no particular tendency for the budget’s economic impact to be seen as more positive (as tended to be the case in the Howard goverment’s early budgets) than the personal impact (which rated higher in the last three budgets), relative to the favourable reception for the budget overall.
The best received budgets mostly came during the golden age of government revenue from 2004 to 2008: the best of all, on both personal and economic impact, was the one that preceded the Howard government’s defeat in 2007.
‘citizen says:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 8:49 am
Who gets a red carpet and who doesn’t at Williamtown RAAF:’
FMD. OTT gone mad.
On that poll all of Nats, ALP and SFF as supporters of more coal have gone backwards on PV compared to the last election. Even with ONP added in the pro-coaler PV numbers are down from Nat, ALP and SFF total at the election.
‘They seem to have gone coal mad’: major parties sing as one, but Upper Hunter voters are not so sure
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/15/they-seem-to-have-gone-coal-mad-major-parties-sing-as-one-but-upper-hunter-voters-are-not-so-sure
Vying to become coal’s ‘favourite child’
For most candidates, the arithmetic is simple. In the first weeks of the campaign, all of the four parties with a chance of winning the seat – the Nationals, Labor, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, and One Nation – engaged in a campaign to see who could pray harder at the altar of coal.
Labor’s candidate, Jeff Drayton, a former miner and union official, said he was sick of “demonisation” of coalminers, while the party’s leader, Jodi McKay, raised eyebrows within her own party when she announced she did not support a moratorium on new coalmines and said she supported the expansion of the industry.
We can have amateur statisticians, along with the bathtub admirals, falling over themselves to defend Morrison and his rollout balls-up but the fact remains that we are at around 10% – the first time around – while the rest of the comparable world is getting close to 50%. Rightly or wrongly, those countries are making tentative plans to open their borders and “live with the virus”. They are making these plans now for openings by Xmas. This year. We are so far behind we can’t see the band. Our apparent plan is mid 2022 – at the earliest. The problem for Morrison is that the Australian Open is played in January and one doesn’t need a great memory to recall what the international players thought about this year’s 14 day quarantine. They wore it because of the event itself and the fact that the worldwide vaccine rollout had barely begun. One year later they are not going to cop it while they look at the rest of the world. More tellingly, their governing body is making noises about the event going off-shore for a year, whatever that means. If off-shore means China, then it won’t be coming back.
It will be champagne entertainment watching Morrison bullshit his way out of that in the lead-up to an election. It would also be a tragedy for Australian sport and national prestige but since when has Morrison worried about that? As long as there is a red carpet for him to waddle along he seems happy.
By the way, good to see Cronulla limping along the bottom, having back-stabbed the coach who got them into the finals two times out of two. Seemed a Shire sort of thing to do.
Spence @ #90 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 6:31 am
There has long been talk of linking the Heysen Trail, does this new National Park do so?
#Terrorists
#Dictatorships
Ima loving your posts, Roy Orbison. 😀
boerwar @ #93 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 6:43 am
It’s only a “nothing burger” to those so desperate to attribute blame.
To those concerned with how we can respond better to future pandemics, it is a valuable document.
BK, great work on the Dawn patrol once again. However there is one place for cartoons – overseas!
Global Cartoon Wrap:
I read that Mark Knight has quit the Journalist Union:
http://www.dailycartoonist.com/index.php/2021/05/14/cartoonist-mark-knight-quits-journalist-union/
From the UK:
USA:
Canada:
Ireland:
India:
New Zealand:
Malaysia:
Netherlands:
Switzerland:
Serbia:
France:
World Champion Road Cyclist Julian Allaphillipe won’t particpate in the Olympics due to the birth of his child:
Mexico:
Brazil:
So no budget bounce and 62% dubious of whether they’ll be ‘better off’.
That WON’T bring a smirk to the blue shirt partisans. 😆
Further to the discussions around Independant Assessments last night.
Good example to throw around.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/17/girl-who-uses-wheelchair-deemed-to-have-no-mobility-concerns-by-ndis-independent-assessment
Quoll @ #103 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 9:06 am
NSW politics across the board is such a sh*tshow.
Much appreciation BK!!!
Meanwhile as outlined in the conversation article, a 5 step road map to reopening
………………..
A five-step roadmap for reopening
We provide the following roadmap for Australia to reopen to the world. Australia needs to pursue:
a comprehensive and successful vaccination program
pilot programs for re-opening prior to the conclusion of the vaccination program to support industries critical to Australia’s economy, including tourism and the creative industries, horticultural farming and international education
a certification scheme, across these programs, which permits only those with documented vaccination and/or SARS CoV-2 immunity to enter Australia or travel overseas
improved border protection measures involving rapid testing on arrival
a new range of new risk-weighted quarantine measures, complementing the maintenance of hotel quarantine for those who come from high-risk countries, refuse testing or test positive on arrival.
As evidenced by Liz Cheney and her strong stance on the insurrection and the big lie her party is espousing. I would have to say yes to both Chris Wallace knowing something and her knowing it too.
Interesting times…..
Also video below.
…….
Ryan Goodman
@rgoodlaw
Sure seems like Fox News Sunday/Chris Wallace knows something here.
He’s now asked Kevin McCarthy and Liz Cheney about a conversation between Trump and McCarthy where the two may have tried to “get their story straight” about Jan. 6 calls
Raises prospect of “witness tampering
https://mobile.twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1393947999844380672
Fake Covid vaccine and test certificate market is growing, researchers say
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/16/fake-covid-vaccine-and-test-certificate-market-is-growing-researchers-say
Victoria – the 5 step plan misses the mark.
The most important step would be to “Eliminate the Virus Globally.” This however takes time effort and coordination and supporting nations around the globe. However it will be the only way to ensure that the world is re-opened…
“citizensays:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 8:42 am
A hefty 19 per cent of people remain uncommitted in the seat.” ( 1 in 5 voters are not revealing their choice.)
This poll is unreliable because of above number.
Also, if ONP 11% PV is believable then the preferences of those 11% will decide who wins the election.
I still think Nats will win the by-election comfortably because of Gladys popularity.
BTW, did Gladys campaigned for this by- election?
I’m not sure why anyone would use the American education system as an example of good practice.
It’s a failure on multiple levels.
Interestingly I have noticed over the past few years, that the Pentagon has slowly gone from nothing to see here, to UAP are seen all the time.
……..
Jeet Heer
@HeerJeet
·
1h
Kind of amazing how quickly the Pentagon has gone from “UFOs? Just weather balloons and swamp gas” to “yeah, everyday we see shit we can’t explain.” Don’t know what to make of it.
Quote Tweet
Molly Jong-Fast
@MollyJongFast
· 1h
UFOs in Virginia Beach! Let’s gooooooo.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MollyJongFast/status/1394060304565297159
Alpha zero
How long did it take to eliminate polio?
Btw anyone know how poroti is going after surgery?
Bushfire Bill @ #49 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 1:05 am
Peddle your conspiracy trash somewhere else, BB. Try facebook. You will find a ready audience.
As your own article states …
I note that you did not note that.
Is Clive advertising in the USA now?
zoomster @ #118 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 9:21 am
I wasnt advocated it zoom. Just pointing out that elements of it are what ‘socialist anarchism’ suggest. A public school effectively owned and run by the local public.
Yes, too much of the funding relies on local taxes. That means the richer the neighbourhood, the better funded the school and…. from that…. poorer neighbourhoods are left wallowing due to shortfalls in other funding (state/fed).
I am sure there are other problems. Not to mention the risk of politicisation of education when you elect board members during elections for president etc.
Another bloody human rights lawyer trying to raise awareness of the secret trial of Australian citizens by our own government
Bernard Collaery in court again today, but the only reason anyone knows is because of some speaking out despite the government trying to run secret trials
There is no place for secret trials in Australia
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7254301/there-is-no-place-for-secret-trials-in-australia/
The prosecution of Bernard Collaery, which returns to the ACT Court of Appeal today, is about right and wrong. It was wrong for the Australian government to spy on our neighbour Timor-Leste for commercial gain. The people who spoke up about it did the right thing. It is wrong to punish them for doing so. And it is especially wrong – indeed, dangerously undemocratic – for our government to shroud their prosecution in secrecy and seek to deceive the Australian people about what actually happened.
—
It is alleged that the information disclosed related to Australia planting listening devices in the office of Timor-Leste’s cabinet during oil and gas negotiations in the early 2000s. At the time, Timor-Leste was newly independent, impoverished and rebuilding after a brutal conflict with Indonesia. In our neighbour’s hour of need, the Australian government spied on them to get the upper hand in commercial negotiations.
It is arguable that this conduct was illegal under international law. At minimum, it was morally bankrupt. Yet instead of apologising to our Timor-Leste friends, successive Australian governments have refused to acknowledge the wrongdoing and persecuted those who exposed it.
Barney wrote, upthread:
One of the key points of the article emphasizes this, saying that it aids the case for cover-up, rather than detracting from it. The program at Wuhan was in fact a US, more than a “Western” idea, funded and substantially run by the US agency the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), a part of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH).
The aim of the program was to,
The person who ran the NIAID at the relevant time, as its Director, was Dr Anthony Fauci.
As the article points out, you have the coinciding factors of:
● a major laboratory in Wuhan running a program specifically designed to artificially engineer ultra-infectious coronaviruses;
● inappropriate standards (given the aim to artificially produce a novel, ultra-infectious virus) at the lab (biohazard levels #2 and #3 – BSL2 and BSL3, rather than BSL4) were proposed and used, due to a loophole in experimentation rules;
● several aspects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus itself indicating more homogeneity in the virus’s genome across variants, even after a year of mutations, than would be expected in a naturally occurring virus that had jumped species (indicating a single source of origin);
● some of the earliest, if not the earliest suspected cases of COVID were BSL3 workers at this lab;
● many other technical “coincidences” that taken together skew the odds towards a lab accident (it’s a VERY long and detailed article, and I’m not going to try to explain it all in a post here).
Summarized:
The article puts the case that it was an American program, dangerous and controversial (in that its aim was to deliberately create super-viruses that could neither be treated nor vaccinated against), that was stuffed up by slack biosecurity practices in a Chinese laboratory. Neither country’s virus research establishments would be interested in the truth coming out.
That accusations similar to this were made by the Trump administration (but blaming only the Chinese, and even vaguely hinting the release of the virus might have been intentional), tribalized the issue and made it a political football, further muddying the waters. Inevitable accusations of “racism” and “Sinophobia” aimed at those attempting to discuss the situation rationally provided further cover-up potential. “Loss” of relevant patient records… ditto.
In short: a big fuck-up that no-one wants exposed.
The article makes a case for this without hysteria or hyperbole.
Well worth a read.
Victoria @ #121 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 9:54 am
Dunno, but hope for a mission accomplished soon. Tall tales and true of torment either to or from nurses.
LVT @8:14 “Assuming there is no further problems with supply (a big if), it’s easy to see us getting over 50% of the population before spring.”
Glad to hear that you got your shot and that the operation was running smoothly where you were. That needs be be replicated many times across the country.
How far can we get before Spring (107 days)?
Last week about 435,000 Covid shots were administered – about 80,000 a day on work days and 35,000 across the weekend. The rate is slowly increasing. At this rate there’ll be another 6.6 million shots before Spring in addition to the 3.1 million to date, for a total of 9.7 million. If we can bump the average up to, say, 600,000 per week over the next 15 weeks, the number of shots administered by then will be about 12.3 million, so getting close to half the population.
However, we need to administer two shots to about 70-80% of the population for a satisfactory level of herd immunity, so the number of shots we’re aiming for is around 35-40 million. Maybe we can get there before Winter 2022.
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 9:31 am
…
It’s only a “nothing burger” to those so desperate to attribute blame.
To those concerned with how we can respond better to future pandemics, it is a valuable document.
…’
I have no interest in ‘blame’. That is a standard Zerlo unicorn. It basically adopts a counterproductive passive aggressive defensiveness that gets none of us anywhere except deflected.
What I AM interested in is (a) full accountability and (b) the fullest possible access to all the relevant data in order to (1) assist in managing THIS pandemic and (2) preparing humanity for the NEXT pandemic.
Which brings us precisely back to the concealed or destroyed 2019 samples.
‘Steve777 says:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 10:09 am
… Maybe we can get there before Winter 2022.’
By which time several deadly variants will drive the need for another 40 million shots?
I’d say steve777 there will be a huge govt funded advertising campaign from about august to remind us of all the efforts of the govt on covid and to get stuck into the vaccine hesitant and urge people to get one of the three vaccines.
There’s lots of levers govt can pull – for instance saying borders won’t open until we get to 75% say.
I’d say it’s all good news from here.
BB
The article is rubbish. I don’t have time to reference this but there have been a number of experts saying that the virus bears all the hallmarks of a naturally evolved virus.
Re BB @10:05.
I’ll have a look at the article in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists later. I’ll just say that extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
EDIT: haven’t previously heard of that publication but it seems to be fairly credible on a quick search.
Alpha
Agreed. The “plan” fails to mention herd immunity also.
I think its possible to globally eradicate the virus but that would also be politically/economically difficult. However I do think its possible for countries such as the US/UK to come close to elimination status and for the virus to be kept in its corner in other countries.
Hence, as well as an expanded fit-for-purpose quarantine system that doesn’t take unreasonable risks and allows us to bring in certain cohorts (just not general tourism) we just need to be patient.
boerwar @ #129 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 10:18 am
Is there a competition for the most ridiculous post of the day that I was unaware of?
BB put in a strong entry this morning, but I think your entry will get my vote.
I was listening to this on the radio yesterday re fact checking science articles and on Covid specifically.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/sciencefriction/troublemakers-covid-science-research-integrity/13344772
Steve
Just one point. The claim in the article that the virus is too homogenous is dodgy. That’s just one thing. The virus has its own error correction enzyme and thus it mutates relatively slowly. Suggesting that its relative homogeneity proves a manmade origin is grasping for something to say.
12% for the anti-coalers in a regional seat IS rather high, IMO.
I assume that the personal intervention of Turnbull has boosted that from the 5-10% that the Inner Urbs parties normally capture in (federal) regional seats.
The really unanticipated thing is that the Morrison Government has done more to destroy our major coal market than the Greens have for three decades.
SK
It certainly killed the careers of a few truth tellers in China.
P1 makes an accusation against me:
In fact, I did note it, giving what I thought to be a fair summary of the article’s conclusions, leaving a link so that anyone could read it for themselves:
Here is the link again:
https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/
I found the link in the Guardian’s “What I am reading now” list of suggested further reading. The Guardian is hardly a radical racist publication peddling Sinophobia.
If you read the article itself you will realise that it is fact-rich, intensively detailed and well researched, written in a non-sensational tone. But yes, it does argue a point, and suggests possible conclusions.
I refuse to keep “covering myself” with exceptions, explanations, footnotes and other disclaimers just to keep P1 off my back with her by now routine, if lazy, accusations of racism and other sinister agendas.
I gave a fair summary of the article and urge Bludgers to read it for themselves. There was A LOT of information in it that I was completely unaware of, as I am pretty confident would most Bludgers also be.
The article cites primary documentary sources and appears to summarise the scientific issues pretty competently for a lay reader, eschewing jargon and techno-babble wherever possible, without unnecessarily diluting the accuracy of its findings.
It is by a rough count several thousand words long and in my opinion deserves more than to be reflexively dismissed by a resident finger-pointer out to reinforce ancient,
now discredited personal slurs about me and to accuse me of ulterior motives.
It doesn’t say it “proves” it. It adds “homogeneity” to the list of factors that indictate a possible laboratory origin in the recent past.
It also notes that for a virus that’s supposed to come from bats, it’s curious that bats (unlike other species) can’t be reverse-infected by SARS-CoV-2. Note: “curious”, rather than “unbelievable”.
In any case noting objections to any one of the many factors it considers does not refute the entire case.
boerwar @ #138 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 8:38 am
The “market” is the force that is actually destroying it.
Bushfire Bill @ #140 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 10:40 am
Still trying to rewrite PB history, BB?
Sadly for you, a lot of people who read your original comments are still here.
Morning all. This article in the New Daily pinpoints the industry lobbying by the IPA that was the real reason for Victoria’s dubious road tax on EVs. The claimed reasons are plainly false, since states don’t collect fuel excise. If it was about more revenue, why exclude petrol and diesel cars?
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/consumer/2021/05/17/victoria-ev-tax-cash-grab-lobby/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020210517
Victorian Labor must really want the Greens to win inner Melbourne seats.
I wonder why Gladys irritates me so much. Maybe it’s her constant theme that NSW is the best at dealing with Covid, that they do much more than the other states, are tops at rolling out the vaccinations, are always responsive to requests from the Commonwealth, and always make the right decisions with regard to “living with Covid”.
Maybe it’s just that Morrison is such a fan!
I am pleased to see Albanese campaign in North Qld. Hopefully the locals are finally realising that coalition policy does them no favours and Adani jobs are smirk and mirrors.
If Labor is not afraid to mention the climate change word, Albo might also point out that the Federal government decision to block funding from the Clean Energy Fund to a proposed big battery project will cost or delay 250 jobs in North Qld.
This graph in the Economist gives some indication of the real Covid death toll. There were 7 million to 13 million “excess deaths” in the world during the pandemic. How many are dying in India right now? Multiply the official figure by 5 to 10.
The red lines are total deaths and the grey ones are equivalent deaths in a “normal” year. Each horizontal line is 10,000 deaths per day.
ABC Joe did an interview with a woman representing the people stuck in India, and she brought out some good points about the stuff-up by Dfat, because they have travelled from all over India to catch the promised flight, but now have nowhere to stay while they wait for further decisions. It all seems a mess.
‘Danama Papers says:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 10:49 am
boerwar @ #138 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 8:38 am
12% for the anti-coalers in a regional seat IS rather high, IMO.
I assume that the personal intervention of Turnbull has boosted that from the 5-10% that the Inner Urbs parties normally capture in (federal) regional seats.
The really unanticipated thing is that the Morrison Government has done more to destroy our major coal market than the Greens have for three decades.
The “market” is the force that is actually destroying it.’
I agree with this in the sense that China had diversified its supplies, including heavily subsidized coal from Russia. I imagine that China would have been happy to maintain Australia as its major supplier for so long as this helped China buy cheaper coal. I suspect that the Morrison Government’s actions have triggered China to move on Australian coal earlier than it might otherwise have done.
But who knows? China’s Government does not do transparent or accountable.
boerwar @ #129 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 8:18 am
a) doG or mother nature.
b) What we haven’t collected any data about the virus?
(1) with the new mutations, how is this even relevant with dealing with the virus now? We do have the original virus that was identified and can plot how it has mutated.
(2) Yes, that is what the WHO report did.
For someone who says they have no interest in blame, you spend a lot of time focusing on something that is irrelevant to your then stated “interests.”
When it comes to issues relating to China, you and Zerlo are just the opposite extremes. Your opening paragraph could equally apply to you.