The Australian reports Labor has retained its 51-49 lead in the post-budget poll, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (unchanged), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up two) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is down a point on approval to 58% and up one on disapproval to 38%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 39% and up three to 46%, which equals his worst ever net rating from Newspoll. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed at 55-30, compared with 56-30 last time.
Regarding the budget, the poll found 44% of respondents expecting it would be good for the economy compared with 15% for bad. On the question of the its personal impact, the better off and worse off responses both scored 19%, with a strikingly high 62% unable to say. There was presumably also a question on whether the opposition would have done a better job, as per Newspoll’s long-established practice — I’ll add that and any further detail as it becomes available.
UPDATE: The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1506. No result yet for the “would the opposition have done better” question, probably because The Australian is saving it for tomorrow. Out of 34 post-budget Newspolls going back to 1988, this is the eighth best result for impact on personal finances and the sixth best for impact on the economy.
The chart below plots the one series against the other, with the present result shown in red. This is near the trendline, suggesting no particular tendency for the budget’s economic impact to be seen as more positive (as tended to be the case in the Howard goverment’s early budgets) than the personal impact (which rated higher in the last three budgets), relative to the favourable reception for the budget overall.
The best received budgets mostly came during the golden age of government revenue from 2004 to 2008: the best of all, on both personal and economic impact, was the one that preceded the Howard government’s defeat in 2007.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmEvAk5LRko
Money Laundering: A How To Guide For The Modern Global Billionaire
Not surprised by the lack of reaction to this odd budget because there is normally something that is either great or terrible but this budget was little more than lots of spending but its not clear what the spending was on. You can say whatever you like about Peter Costello but he knew how to craft a budget that looked like it was doing something.
Watch the video.. this guy is a hoot.. and explains things extremely well.
“Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 39% and up three to 46%, which equals his worst ever net rating from Newspoll”… Thanks for this information but…. Yawn!
Good to see the ALP ahead in the 2PP in spite of the desperate campaign of the MSM to pretend that everything is fine and the Neoliberal-Conservative Coalition government are the “saviours” of the country… with ScuMo being laughably portrayed as a “New Messiah”….
Step by step, Voter Moronism will recede in Australia… which is very bad news for the Coalition.
“but this budget was little more than lots of spending but its not clear what the spending was on”… and above all, who is exactly going to pocket the money…
Saying that you are spending for the benefit of all Australians, but then just give the money to your mates is a kind of spending that the majority of voters would definitely dislike.
Quotable epidemiologists become advisers on an unrelated moral imperative.
No one turned their mind to the duty of care to aviation workers etc which is inconsistent with putting covid positive persons on planes.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/17/call-for-medevac-style-repatriation-flights-for-australians-with-covid-from-india
“ALP ahead 52-48 when 2019 campaign started (and ended and most of the inbetween).”…
Yes, we remember, but this time around focus on how Hanson’s and Palmer’s parties are doing in the opinion polls. They were the ones that helped the LNP smash (smash, I repeat) the ALP in Qld in 2019 and therefore helped ScuMo and the Coalition win the overall election.
As far as I can see, polling for Hanson and Palmer is going South… that’s very good news for the ALP!
Regarding the budget, the poll found 44% of respondents expecting it would be good for the economy
—————
Newsltd and Libs/nats would have been expecting over 60% to be good for the economy
Budget is a failure
“Mavissays:
Sunday, May 16, 2021 at 11:02 pm
I understand Newspoll’s methodology has changed since 2019; if so, the 51-49 2PP may be indicative.”
In fact, from memory, I believe that the Newspoll methodology has changed twice: once before the 2019 federal election and a second time after. In both cases, the Coalition have been credited with a greater flow of preferences from minor parties such as PHON and Palmer’s. Therefore, in my view, we should focus on the primary vote for those minors, especially in Qld… the more they head South, the more likely it is that the ALP will head North.
It looks like Labor’s focus on choosing a former coal miner for the Upper Hunter By-election has driven a couple of per cent to The Greens. 🙂
“Mavissays:
Sunday, May 16, 2021 at 11:31 pm
Simon Benson, the Oz”…
Sorry Mavis, but I did have to double check whether the quote was genuine… and yes, it is!
I mean, and these are the idiots who are always first in line to protest against state control of the information in China!!… Pathetic bunch of buffoons.
“C@tmommasays:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 6:28 am
It looks like Labor’s focus on choosing a former coal miner for the Upper Hunter By-election has driven a couple of per cent to The Greens.”…
… Which is perfectly fine… Now, the question is: How many voters from the centre, the swinging section of the spectrum, the undecideds have been attracted to the ALP because of that?
the best of all, on both personal and economic impact, was the one that preceded the Howard government’s defeat in 2007.
A very telling line. giveaways don’t win elections.
Aqualung @ #42 Sunday, May 16th, 2021 – 11:47 pm
I pointed out the other day that Gareth Ward was Gladys’ chosen one. Junkyard Attack Dog for the NSW Coalition, that is. Jeez, she even sooled him on to the Labor MPs from the Central Coast in a debate about Central Coast Council last week in the NSW parliament, fcs!
“Bushfire Billsays:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 1:05 am
Fascinating article, seemingly well-researched and soberly written.”…
It’s not one article that will decide on the starting point of the Covid-19 pandemic, and it will take time to get to the truth… In the meantime, although it’s true that we should expect the Chinese to defend themselves, we should also expect some Western countries to use any excuse to attack the Chinese….
Alpo @ #NaN Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 6:34 am
Good question. As it seems like the lack of variance in the headline 2PP number (sorry caf 😀 ) but variance in the PV still has Labor ahead (maybe coming back from PHON? because the Coalition PV hasn’t moved) on 2PP, the PHON/UAP factor may be the cause instead.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Simon Benson provides his analysis of the latest Newspoll.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/borders-and-economy-key-to-scott-morrisons-rise-over-labor/news-story/99c43dbd444cc3b1fc2a6f9cfa6fea8d
Michelle Grattan says that the government failed to get a Newspoll bounce out of the budget.
https://theconversation.com/no-bounce-for-government-from-big-spend-budget-newspoll-160979
Rachel Clun writes that medical experts say Australia’s public hospitals got nothing in the federal budget, despite state health ministers urging the federal government to increase funding for the overrun system.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nothing-in-the-budget-for-public-hospitals-under-pressure-20210516-p57se1.html
The budget headline caught a lot of attention – an extra $17.7 billion over five years for aged care. As the royal commission into the sector had made clear, the system needed every one of those extra dollars and – in future years – will need much more, explains the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-big-headline-figure-for-aged-care-reform-now-let-s-see-the-results-20210516-p57sem.html
The media missed the big story in last week’s budget. They were present to observe a rare event – a shift in the economic management paradigm – but all they saw was just another big-spending, vote-buying pre-election budget that seems to aim at getting us back to the pre-virus status quo.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/budget-shock-morrison-government-hit-over-the-head-by-a-paradigm-20210515-p57s7s.html
In a constructive contribution, Amanda Vanstone warns that the big budget spend means nothing without right priorities.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/big-budget-spend-means-nothing-without-right-priorities-20210516-p57sbi.html
It’s Sean Kelly’s judgement that the federal election hinges on timing, not policy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-election-hinges-on-timing-not-policy-20210516-p57seu.html
Alan Kohler explains why it will never be time for austerity. He says, “It’s only a slight exaggeration to say the Coalition is trying to build a Scandinavian welfare system without Scandinavian taxes, using debt instead. It’s economic heresy, but politically devastating.”
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/news-federal-budget/2021/05/17/alan-kohler-austerity/
Mark Kenny says that the Liberals get (economic) religion, briefly.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7253814/the-liberals-get-religion-briefly/?cs=14246
Nicholas Stuart begins this article with, “Scott Morrison’s in the process of reversing gravity. He’s busy upending everything we think we knew about politics and, in the process, throwing away all those old economic constants – you know, things like the Liberals are tight with money while Labor spends, or the coalition slashes the public service but it bloats under Labor. It’s shape-shifting with a vengeance and, at least so far, it’s leaving the opposition stranded. They’re still stuck on the island of the past certainty and being rapidly bypassed by the changing eddies and currents of the new Morrison unorthodoxy.”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7252808/morrisons-big-spending-pulls-the-rug-out-from-under-labor/?cs=14350
Patrick Durkin writes that the Andrews’ Labor government quietly revealed on Saturday that it plans to tax and fine its way out of last financial year’s $23.3 billion deficit.
https://www.afr.com/property/residential/property-hit-by-2-7b-tax-austerity-plan-in-victoria-20210516-p57sbw
Euan Black explains the political forces driving Victoria’s ‘cash grab’ on EVs.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/consumer/2021/05/17/victoria-ev-tax-cash-grab-lobby/
And the AFR editorial says the Victorian tax grab underlines the importance of building fiscal buffers before a crisis, but it is also a lesson about the failure to reform the tax system.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/victoria-s-tax-grab-20210516-p57sf9
Kay Lee writes that Tim Wilson epitomises so many things that are wrong with the Morrison government.
https://theaimn.com/tim-wilson-epitomises-so-many-things-that-are-wrong-with-the-morrison-government/
State governments and health experts have insisted the federal government spell out clearly how the vaccine rollout relates to the reopening of international borders as Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Sunday urged caution in the face of global outbreaks.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/we-need-a-plan-victoria-nsw-want-vaccine-targets-linked-to-borders-reopening-20210516-p57sfh.html
Joh Kehoe and Phil Coorey write that a growing chorus of medical experts, including advisers to federal and state governments, are pressing for a national plan to gradually reopen the international border and adjust quarantine for returned travellers as vaccines are deployed.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/medicos-want-border-reopening-plan-20210516-p57sdp
The Burnet Institute’s Brendan Crabb and Mike Toole opine that we must use caution to break out of Fortress Australia. They say Australia faces three substantial uncertainties when it comes to this endeavour: how much of our population has to be vaccinated to protect against severe disease and widespread circulation of the virus; how effective vaccines will be against emerging variants; and how long vaccine protection lasts.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-must-use-caution-to-break-out-of-fortress-australia-20210516-p57sd8.html
Singapore, the city state and home to more than 20,000 Australians, was less than three weeks ago named the best place to be during COVID-19. Now it’s virtually in lockdown.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/singapore-looks-to-tear-up-its-vaccine-playbook-amid-new-virus-surge-20210516-p57sgm.html
The government does not go far enough on Aged Care reform, while Labor is too-light on the details, declares Dr Tristin Ewins.
https://theaimn.com/government-does-not-go-far-enough-on-aged-care-reform-while-labor-is-too-light-on-the-details/
The Morrison government has declared war on Australia’s public universities. They are accused of being hotbeds of post-modern rabble rousing and an unbearable burden on taxpayers. Government ministers and employers complain that graduates are not “work-ready”. The remarkable thing is the supine response to date from the universities themselves to these baseless and gratuitous insults, writes political scientist Allan Patience.
https://johnmenadue.com/is-the-end-nigh-for-the-australian-public-university/
Adele Ferguson explains how one of the country’s biggest gym and health club group’s has become embroiled in a fight with franchisees amid allegations of unconscionable conduct. Is this a case of rip-off merchants being ripped off?
https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/listed-gym-giant-viva-leisure-s-looming-legal-stoush-20210516-p57sd2
Zoe Samios tells us that the federal government has appointed a former News Corp executive who once proposed a back-office merger of Australia’s two public broadcasters as one of three new members of the ABC board.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/peter-tonagh-fiona-balfour-mario-d-orazio-join-abc-board-20210516-p57se4.html
Meanwhile, Amanda Reade tells us that the ABC has demanded the Institute of Public Affairs correct “erroneous and misleading claims” the public broadcaster said the right wing lobby group made to a parliamentary committee.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/may/17/abc-demands-rightwing-thinktank-correct-misleading-claims-on-public-trust
Luke Henriques-Gomes explains how a nine-year-old girl who sometimes uses a wheelchair was described as not having mobility concerns in a report prepared for the National Disability Insurance Scheme trial of independent assessments.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/17/girl-who-uses-wheelchair-deemed-to-have-no-mobility-concerns-by-ndis-independent-assessment
Nick Toscano and Mike Foley report that coal-fired power consumption in Australia hit a record low for the first three months of 2021 as cheaper renewables took hold.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/australian-grid-used-the-least-coal-on-record-last-summer-as-renewables-shone-20210514-p57s30.html
And Foley tells us that the federal government is quietly developing an agriculture climate change plan that would allow big business to buy carbon offsets from farmers in a bid to incentivise emission abatement without creating friction with conservative MPs who oppose a carbon price.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-farm-policy-quietly-grows-climate-plan-alternative-20210514-p57rz7.html
According to Rob Harris, Scott Morrison will today unveil the final details of the $2.4 billion plan aimed at retaining self-sufficient refining capability and limiting costs on motorists and businesses.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/multibillion-dollar-rescue-package-for-oil-refineries-20210516-p57sev.html
The latest Israeli air strikes further reduce our understanding of what is taking place inside the Gaza Strip at a time when accurate information is more important than ever, writes Peter Greste.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/gaza-attack-on-media-offices-will-deepen-fog-of-war-20210516-p57se9.html
The eruption of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is heading for an “uncontainable security and humanitarian crisis”, the UN secretary general has warned after a day of significant escalation with 42 Palestinians killed by airstrikes in Gaza.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/16/un-chief-warns-israel-palestine-heading-uncontainable-crisis
Farrah Tomalin reports that an outspoken US nun who was recently embroiled in a censorship row with Melbourne’s Archbishop has warned Australia’s Catholic Church it faces an inevitable decline unless it stops suppressing rank-and-file members pushing for reform.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/stop-suppressing-catholics-outspoken-nun-tells-australian-church-leaders-20210514-p57rvs.html
The Republican who now leads the Arizona county elections department targeted by a GOP audit of the 2020 election results is slamming former President Donald Trump and others in his party for their continued falsehoods about how the election was run.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/trump-unhinged-says-republican-election-official-20210516-p57seb.html
Anti-Trump Republicans get lots of media attention, but that doesn’t mean they are relevant within the Republican party, writes Cas Mudde.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2021/may/16/ignore-the-hype-of-republicans-threatening-to-break-away-over-trump
In world shattering news Prince Andrew has been removed as patron of almost 50 organisations, despite his expressed intention to one day return to public life.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/dozens-of-charities-quietly-dump-prince-andrew-following-epstein-embarrassment-20210516-p57sct.html
Channel 7 is facing a backlash over its airing of a “tell all” interview with actor Craig McLachlan.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/05/17/outrage-over-bizarre-channel-7-interview-with-craig-mclachlan/
Cartoon Corner – This is crazy. I can only dig up these this morning.
David Rowe
David Pope
Mark Knight
Johannes Leak
From the US
NOTICE FOR SA BLUDGERS
Scorpio is coming to Adelaide next week for a funeral and wants to catch up with the SA Poll Bludgers Chapter for a meal on Saturday.
Could you please let me know via https://www.facebook.com/ken.craig.9469 if you would like to come. I have in mind a reasonably priced place on Portrush Road where parking is easy.
Unfortunately I have lost some phone numbers and emails of the chapter.
Kudos to the South Australians!
COVID-19 vaccines now available for over-50s at GP clinics
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-17/over-50s-eligible-for-covid-vaccine-in-australia/100143132
Who owns Australia?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2021/may/17/who-owns-australia
BB
Despite protestations to the contrary, the WHO Report did not rule out the lab theory. It did rate it as extremely unlikely. The team did visit the facilities and what they found was the processes looked to be in order. This was over a year after the event. The WHO Team were denied access to the 2019 samples which are THE primary evidence for the virus trail. As any ‘health detective’ will tell you.
BTW, posting that article gets you rated as a Sinophobic conspiracist dumbass’.
boerwar @ #72 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 5:40 am
Western scientist have been working at the facility for a long time and I have seen no mention of any concerns with the standards and protocols operating there.
The 10 deadly sins of the Morrison Government:
1. Deceit love.
2. Wage hate.
3. Biodiversity hate.
4. Renewables hate.
5. War love.
6. Wealth love.
7. Thought hate.
8. Creativity hate.
9. Racism love.
10. Multiculture hate.
Proposed SA National Park. 3.6m hectares.
By contrast:
Australia’s biggest landholder is Gina Rinehart, controlling 9.2m hectares.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/17/australias-biggest-landholder-is-gina-rinehart-controlling-92m-hectares?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1621196351
Clear-eyed observation from the economics sage, Ross Gittins (nervous nellies note):
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/budget-shock-morrison-government-hit-over-the-head-by-a-paradigm-20210515-p57s7s.html
Great work as usual BK. You did miss this cracker investigation on Promo’s red carpet arrival…
‘A red-carpet reception rolled out for Prime Minister Scott Morrison during a recent visit to an Australian airbase did not follow standard Defence Force protocol, according to two former prime ministers.’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-17/scott-morrison-red-carpet-raaf-williamtown-visit-fact-check/100139660?utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_amp&utm_campaign=abc_news_amp&utm_content=twitter
lizzie @ #NaN Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 7:51 am
Well, at least she isn’t getting her hands on 3.6m more.
sprocket_ @ #77 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 5:52 am
Without opening the link I’m guessing the “two former prime ministers” are Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd.
C@t
I’m thinking of all those herds of cloven-hoofed cattle tipping up the topsoil.
Edit: ripping.
Not forgetting the mining, of course.
Got my first shot of Pfizer this morning – must say it is very efficiently organised. Clear to see how they can process thousands a week.
Assuming there is no further problems with supply (a big if), it’s easy to see us getting over 50% of the population before spring.
Last week Ita was urging a bit more speed in appointing three missing members of the Board. I wonder how she feels now.
Shellbell
Quotable epidemiologists
You should have given that one to Coatsworth
Confessions @ #NaN Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 8:01 am
And Tony Abbott never got the red carpet treatment, according to Fact Check.
With the American “Thank you for your service” always included.
lizzie @ #NaN Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 8:02 am
Brumbies and cows. Not to mention 4WDs. Sigh.
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
Newcastle 11℃ feels like 9℃ ☕
Don’t worry BK. Alpha Zero appears to be able to source a shedload of cartoons. Even if we can’t understand half of them! 😆
Well, maybe boerwar can understand the Dutch ones. 🙂
The creation of the new Munga Thirri Simpson Desert National Park is mostly a rebadging of existing Conservation Park and Regional reserve. Probably Env Minister Spiers has been copping it over naming an area of fairly ordinary conservation value in southern Adelaide Glenthorne National Park — Ityamaiitpinna Yarta last year. The test will be if mining is prevented in the new park – it is especially allowed in Regional Reserves.
“The department was also looking at implementing a reserve list for the next flight so all seats would be taken in the event people test positive for COVID-19.”
———————————————————————————
Incredible!
Can you believe those idiots at DFAT did not think it advisable to have a reserve or waitlist?
And Qantas signs up an unaccredited testing company!
The Secretary of that department should be sacked for this.
I know. Whatever they touch.
Upper Hunter poll – for what it’s worth:
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 7:49 am
boerwar @ #72 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 5:40 am
‘…
Western scientist have been working at the facility for a long time and I have seen no mention of any concerns with the standards and protocols operating there.
…’
You have missed the crucial point entirely which was not about process but about access to the primary evidence of the 2019 samples.
The Chinese Government has among the most intrusive and comprehensive citizen surveillance program in the world. Yet its rationale for preventing the WHO Team from getting access to the primary evidence, the 2019 samples, was Chinese laws about privacy. You would appreciate the blatant cynicism.
The Chinese tactics worked well, BTW. The WHO Report has sunk without trace as one of the most expensive nothingburgers of the pandemic.
frednk @ #63 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 6:34 am
You reckon.
citizen
One way of looking at those rubbery figures:
Primary votes
Out and out pro coal in all circumstance: Nationals 25% + SFF 16% + PHON 11%. Total 52%.
Out and out anti coal force: Indy 6% + Greens 6%. Total 12%.
Nicholas Stuart’s piece pretty much lays it out.
Anyone who thinks Labor has a chance of winning the next two or three elections really doesn’t get what’s going on.
Who gets a red carpet and who doesn’t at Williamtown RAAF:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-17/scott-morrison-red-carpet-raaf-williamtown-visit-fact-check/100139660
citizen @ #NaN Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 8:42 am
Sounds like it’s going to be on like Donkey Kong! A fun night will be had.
Jeager
Thanks for link. Lots of interesting information.
‘Spence says:
Monday, May 17, 2021 at 8:31 am
The creation of the new Munga Thirri Simpson Desert National Park is mostly a rebadging of existing Conservation Park and Regional reserve. Probably Env Minister Spiers has been copping it over naming an area of fairly ordinary conservation value in southern Adelaide Glenthorne National Park — Ityamaiitpinna Yarta last year. The test will be if mining is prevented in the new park – it is especially allowed in Regional Reserves.’
——————————
Mining is unlikely to be of a scale to make much difference in 3 million ha.
The actual scale test will be whether there are management resources to manage fire and to control weeds and ferals. Combined, this trio is a far, far larger threat to the values than mining.
Tiny Upper Hunter poll seems to conclude little significance in preferences.
One Nation has put a hole in SFF’s chances.