Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Scott Morrison recovers much of the ground he lost on personal approval in the last Newspoll, which as usual records little change on voting intention.

Courtesy of The Australian, the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 51-49, down from 52-48 last time, with similarly slight movement on the primary vote, with the Coalition up a point to 41%, Labor steady on 38%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation up one to 3%. Scott Morrison recovers much of the ground he lost on personal ratings in the last poll, being up four on approval to 59% and down three on disapproval to 37%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 40% and up two to 43%, though these changes do not alter the general stability of his position over the longer term. Morrison now leads 56-30 on preferred prime minister, out from 52-32 in the last poll and identical to the result in the previous poll six weeks ago. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1514.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,951 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. I always like to be fair and to entertain the opinions of fair-minded commentators who back their opinions with well-researched data. It’s for that reason that I read Michael Pascoe’s article about China as a threat to Australia, with a keen interest:
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/04/26/michael-pascoe-darwin-port-beat-ups/

    He almost had me convinced. Until I realised that the fly in the ointment of his analysis was that he had taken all his quotes from Senate Estimates in 2015!

    So, in the end it looks to me like he has cast around for data to fit around his opinion, as 6 years ago is a long time in China-Australia relations.

  2. Oakeshott Country 1 at 8:47 am

    Had some fish and chips yesterday. The paper it was wrapped in had a story about an historical rape accusation against a Morrison minister………………………………….

    Did you get Snapper or Flake ?

  3. DisplayName

    China gets to decide that they don’t want Australian lobsters or wine but do want Australian hypocrisy and iron for their warships

    And the winner is – hypocrisy. 😆

  4. Australia could neutralize its emissions but this would not even offset the increase in China’s emissions.

    Dr Physics and Dr Chemistry could not give a rat’s arse. They will just chew up the CO2 and turn it into HeatMakers.

    I look forward to the very first Greens post condemning China for INCREASING its emissions. Now, while Dr Physics and Dr Chemistry make no distinction between one source or other of emissions, it is a fact that China now generates 53% of the world’s coal-fired emissions. This is increasing.

    I look forward to the first announcement from Bandt that this is unconscionable and is the single major driver of plus 1.5 degrees.

  5. poroti @ #51 Monday, April 26th, 2021 – 9:17 am

    Oakeshott Country 1 at 8:47 am

    Had some fish and chips yesterday. The paper it was wrapped in had a story about an historical rape accusation against a Morrison minister………………………………….

    Did you get Snapper or Flake ?

    Not a question you should ask, poroti. Apparently, according to Oakeshott Country, this is a blog about the Westminster tradition of politics only. 🙄

  6. The government is all talk no action on ANZAC day:

    “Recordings of war-time speeches given by John Curtin, tapes of the Stolen Generation royal commission and even the records of the Bounty mutineers could disappear forever without an injection of cash into the National Archives.

    Years of funding and staff cuts have caught up with the archives, which is struggling to prevent the disintegration of unique pieces of Australian history, including the personnel files of RAAF non-commissioned officers from World War II and papers for suffragettes Adela Pankhurst and Celia John.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-memory-of-the-nation-is-at-risk-with-national-archives-desperate-for-funds-20210422-p57lkp.html

  7. C@t

    6 years ago is a long time in China-Australia relations.

    Yeah and China has really fucking changed in that time eh ?

  9. boerwar @ #95 Monday, April 26th, 2021 – 9:04 am

    ‘lizzie says:
    Monday, April 26, 2021 at 8:51 am

    Dr Sally (PhD)@slsandpet
    ·
    1h
    So many industries badly affected by Morrison Govt #TradeWar with #China’

    ————————————–

    It is not a trade war. It is trade punishment designed to silence a democratically-elected government. It is not a trade war. It is trade punishment.

    OTOH, it would become a trade war were Australia, for example, to selectively ban imports from China in retaliation.

    Huawei. Selectively excluded. 2012, 2018, 2020.

  13. The US also blocked their companies trading with Huawei. For example Google – you know, those android phone guys, android phones being what Huawei offers.

    So we’re probably copping some collateral damage as a US ally and an easy target in the US-China tradewar – or “trade punishment (mutual)” if you prefer sophistry.

  14. poroti @ #100 Monday, April 26th, 2021 – 9:17 am

    Oakeshott Country 1 at 8:47 am

    Had some fish and chips yesterday. The paper it was wrapped in had a story about an historical rape accusation against a Morrison minister………………………………….

    Did you get Snapper or Flake ?

    So yesterday. Scrooter has bigger fish to fry.

  15. ‘C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 26, 2021 at 9:15 am

    I always like to be fair and to entertain the opinions of fair-minded commentators who back their opinions with well-researched data. It’s for that reason that I read Michael Pascoe’s article about China as a threat to Australia, with a keen interest:
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/04/26/michael-pascoe-darwin-port-beat-ups/

    He almost had me convinced. Until I realised that the fly in the ointment of his analysis was that he had taken all his quotes from Senate Estimates in 2015!

    So, in the end it looks to me like he has cast around for data to fit around his opinion, as 6 years ago is a long time in China-Australia relations.’

    ——————————————

    My view, FWIW, is that that is a good article, with minor exceptions. Most of the stuff with respect to the Port of Darwin have been overcooked as Pascoe relates. The single omission is that the port transfers cargoes of US equipment and munitions into the NT and that this would be picked up by the portoperators.

    Apart from that, the tearing up of the Belt and Road agreement was needlessly provocative posturing. The reality is that not a dollar has changed hands and that not a project has got off the ground. As is usual, Morrison will sacrifice the Australian national interest in his personal political interest. In this case it was hoped to tarnish the Andrews Government.

    Finally, and this is the key, Pascoe is absolutely right that Morrison is being run like a puppet by the China Hawks. These are, IMO, genuinely dangerous people. They are the same sort of people (and often the same persons) who got us into Iraq and Afghanistan.

    If Xi, Il-wen and Biden get it wrong (and the signs are not all that promising) we will end up being dragged into the Taiwan War by the gormless Morrison driven by the China Hawks.

  16. boerwar @ #104 Monday, April 26th, 2021 – 9:19 am

    Australia could neutralize its emissions but this would not even offset the increase in China’s emissions.

    You are correct – Australia chooses not to neutralize its emissions, and therefore nobody takes us seriously. Even our allies don’t. And certainly China does not.

  17. boerwar
    The West exported its industry and so emissions to China. So yeah we , well the industrialists and money men, do have a lot of responsibility for those emissions even if they are in China. If we think their coal use suck then we should get stuff made elsewhere. But hey no profits there eh ?

  18. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/04/25/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-8/comment-page-2/#comment-3596659

    Hmmm, need, want, willingness to review which side of pollyTICs provides the more credible path forward. (The fed gov might not be able to organise a piss up in a brewery, the opposition can’t even seem to articulate what all the excitement would be about. Can’t get the attention, interest, make the various scandals meet accountability and transparency, and perceptions about which side will do the least damage I’d imagine beyond rusted on voters, goes to those wanting to see a change or just having had enough, swing voters?)
    I noted the various uncommitteds in the weekend Newspoll.
    Playing the man and perceived threat to retiree dollars rather than go on track record (Spinocchio, Fizza, Tonicchio) impacting those still meant to be having a go clearly worked in 2019.
    Progressives (‘wokes’, WTF) are really going to have to work up some kind of alliance to neutralise the conservative coalition of Libs/ Nats etc.
    Putting more dollars into the DVA (having been dragged to both a RC/ Commissioner) rather AWM looks like an obvious and no regret move.

    Given the whole best we forget about eyeRaq/ Afghanistan/ Vietnam etc from the weekend, the incumbent was always going to get some flag waving points, and I did note various media stories about vets stuck behind fences outside proceedings.
    I guess the budget is next, besides the usual Wuflu, climate change, dobseeker/ NDIS, CHYNA, parliamentary culture and OH&S, banksters, “are you feeling better off” …

    More than anything collaboratively rather than point-scoringly sorting Vax jabs across phases 1 to 3 will be clear for everyone to see.

    Are you feeling better off will become a higher priority again before too long, as in never go against perceived self-interest

  20. There is still simmering interest in Morrison’s speech to the ACC convention, in which he apparently

    talks about his ‘band of christian believers’ in Canberra and that God is using Jenny in his plan.

    I wonder what her function is? As handmaiden, or a leader?

  21. The notion that China’s trajectory is flat over the past half-decade is absolutely ludicrous.

    Just ask Duterte.

    Xi has ramped up military incursions into Taiwan’s air space, very publicly ordered his South China Sea assets to shoot, and last week captured some more islands. Xi has also threatened Taiwan with invasion. Large numbers of naval vessels have been launched in the past six years. Naval construction is accelerating. All in the past six years.

    Astute Bludgers will wonder what happened to the storm that was forecast and which forced several hundred Chinese fishing boats, crewed by militia, into the two new islands that it has now captured.

    Non-astute Bludgers will maintain their anti-west mindsets in which Xi’s China is nothing but a puny reactor to the West’s neo-colonialist imperialism.

    I blame the United States. Xinjiang is a wonderful land.

  22. talks about his ‘band of christian believers’ in Canberra and that God is using Jenny in his plan.

    I long to return to the day of having an atheist PM when we didn’t have to listen to crap like this from the prime minister!

  23. Maybe this could have been better expressed c/o of the Guardian

    “Rockdale Ilinden – known also as Rockdale City Suns Football Club – posted a message on its Facebook page condemning the violence.

    Suffice to say that the club strongly does not condone anti-social and criminal behaviour.”

  24. The problem for China is the that its defence of Huawei was that Huawei, its operations and its data, was somehow separate from the state of China.

    This is a ludicrous proposition.

    Xi has made a point of jailing extremely powerful corporate executives. The boss of Huawei is like all the bosses – subject to Xi’s orders.

    Imagine a future in which Australia totally depends on Huawei. Some Australian politician says something that gets up the nose of the despot du jour. Huawei is angrily ordered to switch off Australia for 60 seconds by way of a lesson.

  25. Fess

    We don’t even need an atheist as PM. We just need someone whose sole purpose is life is NOT to promote his money-based religion.

  26. P1
    China is just following Australia’s example. At Kyoto the Coalition negotiated to allow Australia to increase its emissions. China thought this was such a great idea that they negotiated the same at Paris (where the Coalition once again represented us).

    Somehow this is all the Greens’ fault.

    Somehow, the Greens are meant to work on directly influencing China rather than working in Australia (however ineffectively :P) to effect change in a country where they actually have influence. We all know the words of hypocrites carry little weight. We’re reminded of this on PB every day. Surely then, the best strategy for any Australian to influence China is to advocate and work on fixing our own hypocrisy.

  27. That said, are hypocrites meant to shut up or speak up? Our resident expert in hypocrisy here on PB keeps changing their mind every other day.

    The only consistency that I can determine is *who* is being demanded to shut up and speak up.

  28. Tony Windsor
    @TonyHWindsor
    ·
    13h
    Interesting to note.. the Water legislation which led to mining companies BHP & Shenhua relinquishing their Liverpool Plains mining licences has survived three attempts to demolish it by the Nationals & was also opposed by the National Farmers Federation in 2013.Farmer friends!

  33. Display

    I encourage people who support China increasing its coal fired CO2 emissions, as you appear to be doing, to say so.

  34. DisplayName @ #126 Monday, April 26th, 2021 – 9:42 am

    China is just following Australia’s example. At Kyoto the Coalition negoiated to allow Australia to increase its emissions. China thought this was such a great idea that they negoiated the same at Paris (where the Coalition once again represented us).

    Ah, excellent point. The infamous “Australia Clause” was our first step in ridding ourselves of any pesky future moral authority or influence we might otherwise have had on climate issues.

  36. boerwar @ #133 Monday, April 26th, 2021 – 9:50 am

    I encourage people who support China increasing its coal fired CO2 emissions, as you appear to be doing, to say so.

    And I encourage people who support China reducing its C02 emissions to nominate which imports of Chinese manufactured goods they are willing to forgo **

    ** I have a few suggestions if you need assistance.

  39. boewar

    I encourage people who support China increasing its coal fired CO2 emissions, as you appear to be doing, to say so.

    Find a quote from me saying I support them. You won’t find one. Don’t make shit up, you lying, insincere, two-faced, faithless, coward.

  40. I am sure that 1.5 degrees plus is OK as long as China’s CO2 emissions are the main driver.

    Because if anyone else does it, it is bad. Really, really bad.

  41. lizzie @ #86 Monday, April 26th, 2021 – 9:53 am

    I have found a copy of Morrison’s “christian” speech on YouTube, but I won’t insult you all by posting it.

    Did you see that the 2 men who laid hands on Morrison at the Pentecostal convention were the same two men who as members of the Assemblies of God board, before they changed their name to something trendier, signed a letter exonerating Brian Huston’s father Frank Huston, for the paedophile crimes he had committed? He had repented his sins and that was good enough for them.

    Scott Morrison keeps such wonderful company.

  42. Transubstantiation.

    Mystical stuff.

    Australian coal is bad until it is turned into CO2 in a Chinese coal-fired power station. Then it is good.

  43. Display
    I don’t know whether you support China increasing its coal-fired power generation or its 28% of the planet’s emissions.
    Just go ahead and say what you really think.
    I won’t mind.

  44. boerwar
    You still have not told us what items from China you are campaigning against coming into Australia. Buying stuff from them just creates more CO2 emissions so it has to stop.

  46. We have no (direct) control over what other countries do with coal. We do have control over whether or not we sell it, and by including our coal on the market or not, influence over the price of all coal.

    Naturally we should advocate for its phasing out worldwide.

    Who is it that always mocks empty gestures? Australians have influence in Australia. We have limited influence in other countries. Yet suddenly the resident PB expert in empty gestures is demanding empty gestures.

    Again, the only consistency is not *what*, it’s *who* (the Greens, Cartoonists, etc).

  47. “porotisays:
    Monday, April 26, 2021 at 9:34 am
    boerwar
    The West exported its industry and so emissions to China. So yeah we , well the industrialists and money men, do have a lot of responsibility for those emissions even if they are in China. If we think their coal use suck then we should get stuff made elsewhere. But hey no profits there eh ?”

    Oh, and let’s not forget exporting coal to China in the first place!

  48. If you really want to understand the aspirations of the PLA and the CCP, then this document may help you:

    https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF

    Given the continuity in the PRC’s strategic objectives, the past 20 years offer a harbinger for the future
    course of the PRC’s national strategy and military aspirations. Certainly, many factors will determine
    how this course unfolds. What is certain is that the CCP has a strategic end state that it is working
    towards, which if achieved and its accompanying military modernization left unaddressed, will have
    serious implications for U.S. national interests and the security of the international rules-based order.

    UNDERSTANDING CHINA’S STRATEGY
    China’s National Strategy
    > The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) strategy aims to achieve “the great rejuvenation of the
    Chinese nation” by 2049. China’s strategy can be characterized as a determined pursuit of political
    and social modernity that includes far-ranging efforts to expand China’s national power, perfect
    its governance systems, and revise the international order.
    > The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) frames this strategy as an effort to realize long-held
    nationalist aspirations to “return” China to a position of strength, prosperity, and leadership on
    the world stage.
    > The CCP’s leadership has long viewed China as embroiled in a major international strategic
    competition with other states, including, and in particular, the United States.
    > In 2019, China intensified its efforts to advance its overall development including steadying its
    economic growth, strengthening its armed forces, and taking a more active role in global affairs.
    Foreign Policy
    > The PRC’s foreign policy seeks to revise aspects of the international order on the Party’s terms
    and in accordance with ideas and principles it views as essential to forging an external environment
    conducive to China’s national rejuvenation.
    > In 2019, the PRC recognized that its armed forces should take a more active role in advancing its
    foreign policy, highlighting the increasingly global character that Beijing ascribes to its military
    power.
    Economic Policy
    > The CCP prioritizes economic development as the “central task” and the force that drives China’s
    modernization across all areas, including its armed forces.
    > China’s economic development supports its military modernization not only by providing the
    means for larger defense budgets, but through deliberate Party-led initiatives such as OBOR and
    Made in China 2025, as well as the systemic benefits of China’s growing national industrial and
    technological base.
    Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) Development Strategy
    > The PRC pursues its MCF Development Strategy to “fuse” its economic and social development
    strategies with its security strategies to build an integrated national strategic system and capabilities
    in support of China’s national rejuvenation goals.

    Or, you can sit around and carp at the canaries in the coal mine.

  49. I made a comment the other day that China’s efforts were insufficient. Ignored by our resident expert in make believe so that he can blithely continue to invent fictions.

  50. So, 51% vs 49% to labor after calculations of the 2PP from primary votes have been adjusted (in favour of the Coalition, following their wins in 2016 and 2019) twice in recent years?…. Not bad, not bad at all…

    But of course, the preferred PM results is what keeps the Coalition spirits up…. Yeah, good luck with that.

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