Tasmanian election minus five days

The only poll of the Tasmanian election campaign gives the Liberals a less than spectacular result, though not all are persuaded by it.

The Australia Institute has come good with the only published opinion poll of the Tasmanian election campaign so far, conducted last Wednesday by uComms from a sample of 1023 respondents using automated phone and SMS surveying. When the initial voting intention question and forced-response follow-up for the undecided are rolled together, the results seem at the low end for the Liberals, who are on 41.4% to 32.1% for Labor, 12.4% for the Greens, 11.0% for independents and 3.1% for others.

The high reading for independents, who accounted for 1.1% of the vote in 2018, may suggest strong support for ex-Liberal member Sue Hickey and/or Glenorchy mayor Kristie Johnston in Clark, at least among the kind of people who complete poll surveys, and perhaps also for Craig Garland in Braddon, although he will be hampered by appearing in the “ungrouped” column. Between that and the subdued Liberal vote, the poll suggests a real chance of a hung parliament in which the Liberals drop from 13 seats out of 25 to 12, without holding out much prospect of gains for Labor and the Greens. However, Kevin Bonham offers an extensive list of reasons to exercise caution in relation to the poll.

My comprehensive guide to the election remains open for business here, and I’m currently hard at work on my biggest and best ever live election results facility for the big night. Stay tuned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

54 comments on “Tasmanian election minus five days”

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  1. Update on the Huon Valley resident whose Greens corflutes were vandalised.
    Over the past week his posters were knocked down, stomped on, torn in half a total of four times. The property owner repaired them and put them back up on their steel post supports. Most recently yesterday morning.
    Overnight, instead of knocking them down the democracy heroes responsible spay painted large swastikas all over them.
    The owner is down there trying to scrub them clean.
    Now that’s persistence.
    The feeling in my waters is that the Liberals won’t get back that easily tomorrow. I’m even leaning towards a boil over. Unlikely, but, the waters….

  2. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-30/woman-distress-over-adam-brooks-alleged-fake-identity/100105770

    Woman’s distress over Tasmanian Liberal candidate Adam Brooks’s alleged fake identity
    By state political reporter Emily Baker
    Posted 1h ago

    A high-profile Tasmanian Liberal candidate has been accused of tricking a love interest into believing he was a man named Terry who worked as an engineer and lived in Melbourne.

    In reality, the man was Adam Brooks, a former member of the Tasmanian Parliament who resigned after the Integrity Commission found he misled former premier Will Hodgman about the true nature of his involvement with one of his businesses while serving as mining minister.

    The north-west multi-millionaire is running for the north-western seat of Braddon again in Saturday’s state election.

  3. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/04/26/tasmanian-election-minus-five-days/comment-page-1/#comment-3598939

    There are 3 reasons how to vote cards are not a thing in Tasmania:

    Robson Rotation means that there is no single ballot paper order.

    Preferencing beyond 5 (the number of candidates in a fill all available positions party/group column), is optional.

    The long tradition of intra-party competition, which Robson Rotation was both caused by and makes fairer, means party how to vote cards would be factionally difficult (this is what got them banned at polling places in the 1980s).

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