As you can hopefully glean from a quick tour of my live results facility, there will be no better place to follow the action online tomorrow night than this site (please consider a donation if you agree, as this naturally involved a great deal of work – also note my more extensive plea for cash in the post below).
Final week developments:
• Peter Gutwein has insisted he will resign as Premier if the Liberals do not retain their majority, and further promises that the Liberals will not form a government in minority under another leader, as occurred when Tony Rundle took over from Ray Groom after the Liberals lost their majority in 1996. A similar stand-off unfolded the last time a hung parliament was returned in 2010, which resulted in David Bartlett being effectively unable to deliver on his promise that Labor would not govern without a majority, with the Liberals refusing to enter an arrangement with the Greens.
• Sean Ford of The Examiner reports that “a swing to Labor is being detected by party elders on both sides as the Tasmanian election campaign nears Saturday’s climax, while Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports that early Liberal hopes of “picking up a seat or two in the northern electorates” has been replaced by fears of no gains plus the loss of a seat to newly independent Sue Hickey in Clark, which would deprive the Liberals of their bare majority. The view appears to be that Labor has seized an advantage by focusing on a “health crisis”.
• Whereas the early part of the campaign was dominated by Labor’s candidate trouble, its conclusion has been all about Adam Brooks, whom the Liberals re-endorsed for another run in Braddon despite him having resigned from parliament mid-term after an adverse finding from the Integrity Commission. It has emerged that profiles using Brooks’s photo and a partial account of his personal details existed on two dating sites, which he denies any knowledge of. However, a woman has told the ABC that she dated him while under the misapprehension that he was a non-politician called Terry, and that she had sent him an image of a Victorian drivers licence identifying him as such. Brooks has come under pressure to refer the apparent identity theft to the police, which Peter Gutwein says is a matter for him.
“Peter Gutwein has insisted he will resign as Premier if the Liberals do not retain their majority”…
So, Gutwein will not be prepared to try to put together a coalition government with the Greens?…. Good, that should tell the Greens where their most obvious partners are in case that nobody has an absolute majority of seats.
“Brooks has come under pressure to refer the apparent identity theft to the police, which Peter Gutwein says is a matter for him.”…
What?…. What is Gutwein trying to suggest?… If a member of his party has potentially committed an offence, he, as leader, simply washes his hands and say that’s not my business?… Dear me, can anyone explain to Gutwein the meaning of the word “leadership”?
The very important May Day Tasmania election has arrived.
This State election has been characterized by its “localness”.
I’m surprised that the Bob Brown Green issue, so incredibly important to the Australia wide, Green environmental supporters, has not appeared as a deciding issue in this local election.
No convoy of disaster on show.
The Green factor and the role it plays now entirely dependent on its tenuous electoral success and if successful, it’s relationship with the Labor Party.
The Greens future so ironically dependent on the success of the Labor Party in Tasmania, the Australian State most suited to displaying it’s Green credentials.
Premier Gutwein when deciding to go to an early election, has displayed those particularly Australian inclinations to gamble on anything.
Premier Gutwein has based his decision on his management of the Tasmanian Covid response and in doing so, eliminating any feared Morrison PM voter backlash as occurred in WA.
From media accounts there exists good evidence of Gutwein’s management of the Tasmanian economy to support his electoral success.
Rebecca White and Tasmanian Labor have delivered a reserved campaign in obvious contrast to the last election and the poker machine imbroglio.
The role to be played by independents will evolve very quickly depending on today’s results.
Most Australian will not be aware of this election, even more showing little interest.
However the ramifications, depending on the result may have a huge influence on the political landscape Australia wide.
Morrison PM, will be hoping that by being seen from afar and not heard, portends positively for the future.
I’m looking forward to the results of today’s election, both the raw figures and the Hare Clark factor.
My link to Tasmania is convict based and somewhat dated.
My convict past has the use of convenient identity interpretation, a seemingly common characteristic in use, today, in Tasmania.
@alpo – claims from labor and liberals that they won’t do minority government are always the first campaign promises broken.
The liberals will do their best to govern, supported by the greens, hickey, or anyone else.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-01/tasmania-state-election-day-what-is-at-stake/100108132
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-01/polls-open-in-tasmania-state-election/100084238
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/01/tasmania-election-will-covid-be-enough-for-liberals-to-hold-on-in
With a PV of low 30s as per one unreliable poll for ALP, if replicated on election night result, ALP could loose a seat. Other than that so called unreliable poll there is no other poll, which is surprising, to say the least. Why didn’t Newspoll or any other polling agency did not publish a poll near the election date?
Be interesting to see how many prepolls were done this time in comparison to ‘usual’. Throughout the past 3 weeks there was generally 2-3 in the pending line in Launceston. Yesterday that line was 30+ for most of the day.
“Alposays:
Friday, April 30, 2021 at 9:12 pm
“Peter Gutwein has insisted he will resign as Premier if the Liberals do not retain their majority”…
So, Gutwein will not be prepared to try to put together a coalition government with the Greens?…. Good, that should tell the Greens where their most obvious partners are in case that nobody has an absolute majority of seats.”
Could Gutwein insisted that he will resign as Premier if Libs don’t get majority because he is confident of majority?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-01/crime-to-fly-from-india-to-australia-covid-federal-government/100108898
Will the above decision have any impact on Tassie election?
Gutwein’s remarks about minority government is basically just a way of rallying undecided voters behind him. He is framing the choice as between certainty and uncertainty i.e. A majority Liberal government vs. some unstable rainbow coalition led by Labor formed through some secretive backroom horse-trading. And he can say that with confidence. The Liberals have formed government in Tasmania over the last two terms without needing to negotiate with any crossbenchers. Even when they did slip into minority government, Gutwein’s response was to call an early election rather than carry on.
I don’t know what kind of rallying effect it will have but I have seen other electorates where the conservative government managed to get a boost at the end by presenting itself as a certainty versus the unstable alternative. Best example that comes immediately to mind is the British Conservatives under David Cameron in 2015.
@Ven 1) All politicians are confident of victory, it’s the nature of the egos involved. And as Voice endeavour notes, claims from politicians that they won’t do minority government are always the first campaign promises broken. No politician is going to give up a chance to be in government out of spite, and regardless, the result of any rerun is never going to be any different from the first – just look at Israel.
2) None whatsoever. Seriously, why would it? Can’t imagine a more irrelevant issue, it’ll barely raise a blip even at the federal level.
Predicting election results is a mugs game. But here’s mine.
This will be the most exciting Australian election to watch since COVID.
Wa the opposition conceded before Election Day. The NT was about the Libs firmly establishing opposition status over what’s his name, act was never in much doubt. Before 7 pm WB said he was tempted to call it and talking rabbits out of hats.
Qld was over pretty quick IIRC. A modest but uniform swing quickly established to the government.
Tas should have some drama. Likely to be the closest COVID election, will come down to distribution of preferences.
Tassie distributing preferences manually sounds good for the spectacle, even if it’s an idiotic use of resources.
Ven: “Will the above decision have any impact on Tassie election?”
I doubt it. But it is worth noting that the ethnic Indian vote in Tasmania, as in the rest of the country, has been growing significantly in recent years.
There is an independent candidate, Mike Dutta, who is of Fijian Indian background. Both Dutta, who is the proprietor of quite a nice coffee shop in South Hobart, and his daughter, Zelinda Sherlock, are on Hobart City Council. I expect Dutta will not come close to being elected, but – partly on the back of the Indian vote – will win a respectable number of votes for an ungrouped candidate.
He is anti-pokies, and has been blessed by Wilkie, as have all the other independents running in Clark: Sue Hickey, Kristie Johnston, Hobart City Councillor and LGBT+ activist Jax Ewin, and former CSIRO irukandji jellyfish expert Lisa Gershwin. Collectively, they are a very high-profile bunch of independent candidates: four successful municipal politicians, and a scientist and author with a global reputation.
Clark sure is going to be interesting to watch tonight.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/01/tasmania-election-2021-the-10-things-you-should-know
Is there anyone on Hobart council who hasn’t run for state parliament at some point?
Congratulations in advance to the Hobbits for exercising their democratic mandate.
Still its all commonwealth money at the end of the day that their after (irrespective of party)….
New thread.