Courtesy of The Australian, the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 51-49, down from 52-48 last time, with similarly slight movement on the primary vote, with the Coalition up a point to 41%, Labor steady on 38%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation up one to 3%. Scott Morrison recovers much of the ground he lost on personal ratings in the last poll, being up four on approval to 59% and down three on disapproval to 37%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 40% and up two to 43%, though these changes do not alter the general stability of his position over the longer term. Morrison now leads 56-30 on preferred prime minister, out from 52-32 in the last poll and identical to the result in the previous poll six weeks ago. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1514.
ALP primary +5 from 2019 election
LNP primary no change from 2019 election
Simon Benson calling a triumph for ScottyFromMurdoch
Is it time to give up now?
Or will Albo cut through tomorrow?
Mundo @ #2 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 9:45 pm
Could you please give up? We get it already. Labor ahead during a pandemic isn’t good enough for you. Never will be.
It’s a bit hard for any of the opposition, state and federal, to cut through right now.
I’m still waiting on the results of the various investigations into the Brittany Higgins rape allegations to come public.
I reckon things will kick off then.
How to spin the positive out of a bland result for Promo’s lurching from one debacle to the next, with numbers stuck firmly within MOE and ALP in front on 2PP..
Sprocket
Completely agree. The headlines are all about the great resurgence of the Coalition, but LNP/ALP 41/ 38 definitely should put Labor in striking distance.
But then: we have Greens 10, ON 3 and Others 8.
Does this mean Greens (10) Labor friendly preferences v. (ON (3) + Others (8)) for a total of (11) Coalition friendly preferences?
If this is the case, then progressive (ALP + Greens) = 48
Conservative (LNP + ON + Others) = 52.
A crude analysis, but it does explain why the Coalition are delighted with the result.
The numbers keep saying this, the RW media (bless ’em) keep saying that. Way to go, yet, sports fans.
The only thing we can take out of this is that despite all the negative issues around the Coalition we still don’t have a meaningful trend back to Labor.
Pretty well par for the course for now.
The good news in Newspoll is that Labor is in front, just. A not bad outcome for an opposition up against a prime minister with a high approval rating and with a leader who is apparently failing to cut through.
The bad news, on that point, is that Albo is still not seen by many punters as a good alternative prime minister. At this time I don’t think changing leaders is going to automatically solve that.
However, this could be an outcome of Albo’s reluctance to commit to a climate change policy which unambiguously promotes renewable energy at the expense of fossil fuels. Labor still seems unwilling to speak truth to the powerless. The coal industry will die and the future lies in retraining for green energy jobs.
Labor must step up to what needs to be done in the fight against climate change. Until Labor does, it risks not being taken seriously.
Christ. Albo goes backwards again 🙁
Scrooter is toast.
The only conclusion a sensible person could come to.
Toast.
I tells ya!
The rolling cluster fuck that is the Morrison government will come a cropper.
Mark my words.
The writings on the wall.
Put your house on it.
The amount of people that think labor going full steam ahead with climate change policy is going to somehow bring them massive votes and give them the election seriously need to get out of their echo chamber and into the realities of what most everyday Australians think is important.
If climate change policy was the vote bringer that so many say it is, the Greens would have more then 10/11 % of the vote they’ve had for most of the 21st century.
SHP
Its lost them the last 3 elections. If Aussies want to stick their heads in the sand and ignore whats happening then keep voting the Coalition and get shut down. I dont think Labor will do themselves any good this time round on climate change again.Might just as well play the neutral card, and maybe they might just win.
Labor PV at 38%. A bit different to the nine news 33% which got a lot of posters wetting their pants. Yet the same dickheads will complain that in the middle of a pandemic with Morrison having the advantage of incumbuncy labor is ahead 51-49 and up 4.7% on 2019 PV results it is still not good enough.
Go and suck on it.
Interesting that Newspoll ever-so-grudgingly are providing a few slivers of additional info
The primaries add up to 100 – yet 5% Uncommitted are excluded.
And preference flows are based on recent federal AND state elections – wonder how they cope with OPV?
The 1514 interviews were conducted online – which I assume is the self registering YouGov online panel which floods with you surveys on banking products and fashion brands..
Why people will not see “popularity” and PPM for what it is, while studiously ignoring the actual numbers, does bemuse me.
Sir Henry Parkes
It would be good for science, the planet and everyone to think that Labor not being seen to be radical enough on climate action is the reason for Labor not surging ahead in the polls, but the fact that The Greens are not surging either suggests that voters are engaged on other issues.
Douglas and Milko,
Have you been drinking tonight? On what basis are you slotting ALL of the Others into the Coalition basket!?!
Boothby’s there for the ALP to win with a good candidate, but nobody’s putting their hand up. They’ll wait for the Libs to take the initiative.
D&M:
Not quite. There’s some Greens voters who pref the Libs / some ON voters who pref Labor. Just not that many. As for “others”, that’s everyone from Fred Nile to Socialist Alternative – unclassifiable mush, treat as 50-50 unless there’s a good reason not to.
Assume Labor gets 80% prefs from the Greens, a third of One Nation’s and half of the others, that gives 38+8+4+1=51. Newspoll probably has some more secret sauce in there, but it seems plausible.
Anything where all the changes are +/-1 (ie: almost all Newpolls on that table) would have a fair bit of rounding error in them.
RODH2 @ #16 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 10:04 pm
I know, right? I don’t know how many learned psephological prognosticators have stated that Preferred PM is THE least reliable index in polling. Some people just confuse, PPM with, who is the PM? Or because the country isn’t falling down around their ears they give the current guy a tick. I also have to say that there would be an element of… my house value is through the roof, big tick Scotty.
LOD
If climate change policy was the vote bringer that so many say it is, the Greens would have more then 10/11 % of the vote they’ve had for most of the 21st century.
Thats exactly the case. Hard to disagree.
Bird of paradox @ #20 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 10:06 pm
This is a way more rational analysis of the numbers. Thank you.
Okay, so Labor, despite Scott Morrison having the luxury of the bully pulpit at his disposal and a phalanx of minions to call on, are still in the game. That’s all that is really important to me.
The stupid thing about voters in Australia is that the ones who are complete climate deniers are the ones that live in the areas that CC is at its most devastating.
This is a good poll for any opposition party in Australia be it federal or state given especially that federal labor is now prosecuting the case of federal government incompetence in the vaccine rollout.
Australians want the federal government to succeed. Still unsure about accepting the fact that Morrison and co have fucked up. Time will tell.
The same bullshit will flow from the same suspects here on PB. Albanese and labor not attacking enough. Bad. Albanese and labor going on the attack. Bad.
Fuck me.
C@tmomma
No, unfortunately, no lovely craft brews tonight.
My analysis is crude, but was more meant to highlight to the anti-ALP (self-proclaimed) progressives on this blog that the ALP plus Greens primary vote, if added together, still does not get the good guys (the Peoples Front of Judea + The Judean Peoples Front ) to more than 50% of the vote.
So, sigh, the ALP being more like the Greens is not going to stop the Coalition winning the next election.
We can only assume that Newspoll are not going to corrupt their own polling so it must be correct – or close to correct. That being the case, it is either a horrible reflection on Albanese or a horrible reflection on the Australian people. I know Albanese isn’t cutting through, simply what people from very different situations tell me. Many of these will be voting Labor regardless of who leads them, or what Rupert Murdoch or Simon Benson or anyone else says. But I haven’t heard a single person tell me that they are impressed by Albanese and, unfortunately, fairly or unfairly, they think he is a total dud. The fact that almost universally they detest Morrison while having that opinion of Albanese speaks volumes. It’s time for him to go. In the face of all the disasters and all the evidence of Morrison’s corruption and incompetence, of rapes and vaccine failures, of Christensen and Dutton and Porter and Reynolds and Taylor and the rest of this utter circus, if this is the best that he can manage then he needs to be managed out. Nice bloke or otherwise.
That all said, there is a lot of Australia that I don’t like and a fair bit that I hate. I used to feel a bit guilty about spending so much time and money overseas. Not any more. I can’t wait for the day to come – if it comes – when I can get away from this racist, stupid, selfish country again. The despair is overwhelming sometimes.
Keep in mind WA election contamination should be washing out by now.
“ Australians want the federal government to succeed. ”
Exactly.
The wheel is turning however. Albeit slowly.
Kicking with the wind in the last quarter seems like a good strategy for Albo. The punters might just have given up on ScoMo’s secret sauce by then.
BTW, the only real move is 1% increase in coalition vote. Now still lower than 2019.
Yet the same suspects sprouting the same bullshit will continue to go on and on.
Time to move on and away from the schoolyard playground.
Although this stat is nearly three years old, it nevertheless suggests that there is perhaps a way to go before the demise of ANZAC Day, bearing in mind that when a Vet dies, his/her kin very often maintain the tradition of marching and wearing the deceased medals on their right breast:
‘As at 30 June 2018, DVA estimated that there were around 641,000 living Australian veterans who have ever served in the ADF, either full time or in the reserves (DVA 2018a). This estimate was derived using ADF enlistment information and assumptions about mortality based on Australian population mortality data; it covers veterans who have served from World War II onwards.’
https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/1b8bd886-7b49-4b9b-9163-152021a014df/aihw-phe-235.pdf.aspx?inline=true
Despite this stat, after consuming copious amounts of rum and the loss of a small fortune at Two-up today, I do hope the end of Anzac Day is just around the corner.
_________________________________
I’m happy with Labor on a PV of 38%. Forget Morrison’s
personal metrics; they can change in a nanosecond.
The polling is broken, or the electorate has the attention-span of a goldfish?
LOD @ #12 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 10:00 pm
The problem with this analysis is that nobody takes the Greens all that seriously (apart from the Greens themselves, I guess). The voters do take Labor seriously, but given how badly the COALition is performing, it seems fairly clear that they are just not seeing in Labor the alternative they are looking for. And that they seem especially disappointed in Albo’s performance.
While Labor is slightly better than the COALition on climate change policy, it is clear to anyone who looks at it objectively that this is still an area where Labor are quite weak. It could be a real differentiator, but they are still catering to fossil fuel interests rather than the national interest. Nobody seriously believes that Labor are on the side of the workers when it comes to fossil fuels – least of all the workers themselves 🙁
The margin of error is 2.6%, so the change in 2PP and the changes in primaries are not statistically significant, Benson’s rapture notwithstanding. The change in preferred PM would be, although I’m really not sure what that means. People slightly favour Labor but prefer Morrison 2:1 as Prime Minister? How does that make sense?
Steve
Its simple. Morrison gets his face and voice everywhere. Its just brand recognition.
So much panic, despondence….all because of the PPM rating!
William and Kevin Bonham constantly point out the ridiculousness of the PPM rating, yet people despair about it.
Fact….Labor will win the next election if these figures hold.
You nervous nellies need to get a hold of yourselves.
Australians want the federal government to succeed
Well, we’re stuck with them for now so I certainly want them to succeed on Covid.
They have no program for climate action. They are supporting coal. In that I want them to fail.
Their social and economic programs are toxic. I want those to fail.
It is all about the vaccine rollout and covid. That is the only game in town.
The PB focus on climate change is simply a bubble being prosecuted by those who represent the views of nobody in the real day to day world of normal disengaged Australians.
Morrison is the PM. Morrison has incumbuncy. Australians want the vaccine rollout to succeed. Morrison is behind 51-49 with a P V less than 2019 and more problems in rollout to occur.
ATM the only game in town is the vaccine rollout. Climate change means jack shit.
If this is the best Morrison has to offer with more vaccine failures on the Wayne then labor is going ok.
It will never be good enough for the eternal whingers however and they will continue to suck lemons and turn PB into a site for the moribund.
Good luck with that. The good posters such as lizzie , GG, BB, Victoria, confessions, zoomster, frednk and numerous others make PB almost worthwhile but, alas, not worthwhile enough.
Gorks:
There wouldn’t be that much contamination. We’re 10% of the population – if Labor’s (federal) pv jumped 10% just in WA, that’s only 1% nationally, which goes into the “rounding error” basket again. And that jump didn’t happen suddenly in March – there were some unbelievable WA seat polls last year that turned out to be true. It’s possible WA has been giving federal Labor an extra 1%, but if so, that’s been baked in for a while now.
Obviously that’s all pretty hard to speculate on considering WA went about three years straight without any kind of poll (in state politics). I realise our population’s small, but if the feds get one every couple of weeks, we oughta be good for one every three months. Even Vic and NSW state polls are becoming rare.
Apologies for my late response, rhwombat.
rhwombatsays:
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 7:54 pm
Eunoe:
For some informed comment from some who are actually involved in clinical science (rather than political horse racing), I would recommend the TGA/ATAGI alert of 23 April. .
Michelle is much less flakey that David Burger – whose self-regard & conscious contrarianism often usually exceeds his expertise.
Thanks for your comment, rhwombat. For some years lurking I have noted your remarks with regard.
At the risk of my having misinterpreted your comment, there can be no suggestion that Dr Eric Topol, the distinguished founder of the Scripps Institute in La Jolla, California, or Hilda Bastian (PhD, clinical epidemiology) are involved in ‘political horse racing’. As for Dr Ananda-Rajah and Dr Berger, I find their perspectives, sometimes very passionately expressed, yes, and those they link highly informative.
Thanks, too, for your link. The TTS issue is concerning. My concerns, however, have been and remain the relative vaccine efficacies and variant resilience consequences issues in relation to Australia’s inevitable border re-openings.
If you might still be around, perhaps you can help me understand how and why Australia elected to pursue such a limited number of possible vaccine candidates from at least March 2020.
(As you will know, Moderna, for example, designed its mRNA vaccine in collaboration with NIH on 15 January 2020 – as it happens, well before Brendan Murphy, as he has publicly stated, returned from his overseas holidays that year – and entered Phase 1/2 trials on 16 March last year, prior to the commencement of Pfizer/BioNTech’s similar trials starting 2 May 2020. The speed of development, manufacture and dissemination has been breathtaking; a triumph of humanity in the finest sense of the phrase.)
Having sat on a number of boards of various entities, well known and not, across the years, I’m reasonably familiar with their dynamics. One person will have been the originator of the idea to address Australia’s vaccine possibilities narrowly instead of broadly with others then acquiescing, might you know whom and why they did so?
I’m especially interested in thoughts on why Australia is not electing at this time to ensure all Australians (including children and adolescents; Pfizer already is available for those from the age of 16 in the U.S. and U.K.) are covered – or will be covered as soon as possible and practicable – by the most highly-efficacious and variant resilient vaccines.
Your perspectives, as always, are most welcome. Thanks.
Terrible situation –
Sunken Indonesian submarine found cracked open by rescuers
Denpasar: A missing Indonesian submarine has been found, broken into at least three parts, deep in the Bali Sea, army and navy officials said on Sunday, as the President sent condolences to relatives of the 53 crew.
Rescuers found new objects, including a life vest, that they believe belong to those aboard the 44-year old KRI Nanggala-402, which lost contact on Wednesday as it prepared to conduct a torpedo drill.
“Based on the evidence, it can be stated that the KRI Nanggala has sunk and all of its crew have died,” military chief Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto told reporters.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/deep-sorrow-joko-widodo-sends-condolences-to-families-of-sunken-submarine-20210425-p57m8k.html
Labor does better in polls than in actual elections. Kevin Rudd was on 54-55 2PP going into the 2007 election. He got less than 53, still a great result but not the landslide predicted. Julia Gillard seemed comfortably ahead in 2010 but just scraped in 50.1 to 49.9 and minority Government. Then we have 2019.
Why that seems to be the case I don’t know. There’s the benefit of incumbency, including in the case of this Government unlimited taxpayer funds for use as a reelection slush fund. Then you’ve got a mainstream media that actively boosts the Government while burying its stuff-ups.
I think that a guide to the most probable result would by to shift 2 to the blue column, which would give Coalition 51-49. Not a counsel to despair, that is well and truly competitive. However, Labor should be assuming that that are starting from behind, whatever the poll says, and work from there.
Re Doyley @10:35
ATM the only game in town is the vaccine rollout. Climate change means jack shit.
The fact that the PM would announce a plan to preserve coal-fired power in a forum of world leaders convened to promote climate action would suggest that he agrees with you.
Perhaps it is just all made up BS, or actually a significant portion of the Australian population take absolutely nothing about politics seriously and they just couldn’t give shit about anyone or anything other than what is in front of their mind at the time. Even if a significant portion do consider their vote.
Considering all the issues over recent months on all sorts of topics, in some ways even the RW nutjobs must be stunned as well, after all the lies and efforts they’ve made, reams and reams of articles and BS via Newscorpse and the benefits of a lazy covid incumbency, not to mention religious invocations of Smokos manifest destiny from God, and petty much nothing for them either.
It really is like nothing happens with newspoll, which makes me think it is possibly just complete crap. Or such a significant portion of the Australian population really do not know or care about anything remotely political. It’s almost like there is a major portion of the population who actually don’t have a functioning brain that can discern that there is any issue upon which any consideration is required over time. It’s bizarre really to think there is a population that can be so unmoved in any direction by anything in a world so full of massive issues and so many problems needing to be addressed.
I wonder if some people actually realise there is a connection between their vote and what happens in the world to them or their families, cf oldies voting for the bastards who would condemn them to understaffed, underfunded old aged home purgatory.
I realise the Labor partisans have some stupid belief that pandering to some imaginary political expediency on coal mines and gas because of a supposedly RW nutter demographic is the way to go, even if it that means the ecological breakdown of the world. Though no-one can honestly say that that is working for them either over multiple elections. No-one is going anywhere much outside MOE in newspoll. The gnashing of teeth in the Oz about how many vote for Labor or the Greens seems equalled by the dismay here pretty regularly.
The idiocy seems so astounding as to appear almost unbelievable. Is there any other country anywhere with such a history of such bizarrely disconnected populace to any issues of significance even corruption and inexcusable mismanagement?
Each Newspoll i always go back to the previous one and re read the 1st couple of pages of comments and then compare to the current one.
A couple of observations.
The view from bludgers on the importance of PPM seems to change on whether it is good or bad news for Labor.
Also many bludgers predicted that the next poll (tonights) will pick up the blowback from Andrew Laming and the end of Jobkeeper.
That’s one game. And it’s been badly, badly botched.
Another game is rape allegations, and the generally toxic/women-hostile culture on display within the Coalition.
And there’s the Auspost sideshow.
Even discounting climate, that’s at least 2.5 games. All of which have the Coalition, and sometimes Morrison personally, losing badly.
I believe the next Election will be won in the Regions outside Victoria and NSW.
A number of LNP Members are retiring which is a great opportunity for Labor. Labor also have popular State Governments in Qld, WA and NT. The SA LibGovernment does not seem to be travelling well if we are to believe the commentary from our SA correspondents.
Given COVID has dominated the political landscape for much of this term, voters may be looking for a new beginning and the political pendulum may be swinging in Labor’s favour.
It will be interesting to see the makeup of this Newspoll when segmented by State.
All up, a reasonable Poll for Labor.
Quoll
Name calling the voters does nothing but losses that voter. and many people see all politicians as useless but there is a danger in reading too much into polling because a 51-49 election will see the Morrison government lose his majority status and by their nature Australian elections are close on the TPP.
steve davis says:
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 9:39 pm
Still 1o million punters cant see that Morrison is a complete charlatan.
——————————————-
The Coalition only got a TPP of 7,344,813 so where does this 10 million come from.