The Age/Herald have published their first poll of federal voting intention since the 2019 election, dispensing with the services of Ipsos (who happened to be the least wrong pollster at the election) and enlisting Resolve Strategic, which is run by Jim Reed, who once worked for Coalition pollsters Crosby Textor. As national political editor Tory Maguire explains, the polling failure of the last election has inspired the pollster and its publisher to cast around for a fresh approach, the salient feature of which is not telling us straight what the two-party preferred is.
We do get primary votes though, and they are quite a bit different from Newspoll’s, with the Coalition on 38% rather than 40% and Labor on 33% rather than 38%. This means higher scores for minor parties, which happens to replicate a peculiarity of Ipsos. The Greens are on 12% compared with Newspoll’s 11%, but most striking is a 6% reading for One Nation compared with 2% from Newspoll. The latter result is, hopefully, a teething problem: it approximates the party’s 5.4% Senate vote in 2019, but most assuredly would not be matched in the House of Representatives since the party contests few seats there. It also seems highly unlikely that One Nation would be bearing up so well given its recent performance at state elections, with its share of the upper house vote in Western Australia having crashed from 8.2% to 1.5%.
Applying preference flows from 2019, this lands pretty much bang on 50-50 nationally, with the Coalition leading 53.4-46.6 in New South Wales (a 1.6% swing to the Coalition) and 54.3-45.7 in Queensland (a 4.1% swing to Labor), but trailing 53.8-46.2 in Victoria (a 0.7% swing to Labor) and 52.4-47.6 in Western Australia (an 8.0% swing to Labor). The New South Wales result is more favourable for the Coalition than the recent quarterly breakdown in Newspoll, which had it at 50-50, but the results for the other three states are about the same. Distinctions by gender are slight in the case of voting intention, except that the Greens are three points higher among women and One Nation are two points lower, and confounding in the case of personal ratings: Scott Morrison’s net approval is four points stronger among women than men, while Anthony Albanese’s is five points weaker.
Personal ratings are measured on a four-point scale of very good, good, poor and very poor, which is similar to Essential Research but different from Newspoll’s straightforward satisfied and unsatisfied responses. Morrison registers a combined good rating of 50% and a poor rating of 38%, a net rating of plus 12% that compares with plus 17% from a recent Essential poll and plus 15% from a not-so-recent Newspoll. Anthony Albanese scores 35% good and 41% poor, for a minus 6% rating that compares with plus 5% from Essential and plus 2% from Newspoll. Morrison is credited with a 47-25 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 47-28 in Essential and 52-32 in Newspoll.
The poll wins points for transparency, at least by Australian standards, in providing breakdowns by state (or at least, the four biggest states), gender and age cohort. If I’m reading the small print correctly, the New South Wales and Victoria breakdowns will be published as a two-month rolling average, combining the current and previous poll. The idea seems to be that these states will have results with sample sizes robust enough to allow the Age/Herald to analyse them with a straight face: readers who choose to probe deeper into the breakdowns will be advised to exercise their own caution. (UPDATE: It seems I’ve read this wrong, and that there will actually be state voting intention results published every two months, based on the combination of two monthly polling samples). However, the results as published still leave a fair bit missing, as the poll is also weighted for education and income (and the survey includes a question on religion), for which breakdowns are not provided. There is also the rather glaring absence of any detail on field work dates: we are told only that the survey was conducted “in April”.
One of two accompanying reports by David Crowe relates the following detail absent from the published numbers:
Support for the Coalition in primary vote terms has fallen since the last election among voters who described themselves as Christian, dropping from 56 to 49 per cent. While support for Labor among this group rose from 28 to 29 per cent, the change was within the margin of error. In a more significant shift, the same cohort increased its support for independents and minor parties from 15 to 22 per cent. The Coalition has lost ground among voters across the board since the last election, with its primary vote slipping from 41 to 38 per cent, but the shift was strongest among immigrants and people from “non-Anglo-Saxon” backgrounds. Immigrants have reduced their support for the Coalition from 48 to 40 per cent since the election, while increasing their primary vote for Labor from 30 to 35 per cent. Those from “non-Anglo” backgrounds reduced their support for the Coalition from 44 to 35 per cent, while increasing their support for Labor from 31 to 36 per cent.
The other tells us the following:
The swing against the Coalition was spread evenly across most demographic groups but was more pronounced among those on higher incomes, with support falling from 49 to 43 per cent among those earning more than $100,000 a year. Labor gained support from the same workers, with its primary vote rising from 29 to 33 per cent.
There are further attitudinal results available in a nicely laid out results display page, including the finding that 44% expect the Coalition to win the next election compared with 28% for Labor. The display includes, under “comments”, sampling of qualitative responses that aim for an impressionistic view of why the ratings for each question are what they are. The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 2000, compared with the Newspoll norm of around 1500. However, the phone sample of 400 appears to be a one-off of this “baseline survey”: it seems that in future the series will be a monthly online poll from a sample of 1600.
Poroti
We are still yet to be convinced say all the sceptics.
Ardern, New Zealand criticised for soft stance on China
A vote about China took a wild turn in the UK where MPs celebrated Australia’s tough stance only to turn the blowtorch on New Zealand.
So what. New Zealand are their own nation. Why should they join everyone else?
steve davis @ #1852 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 11:11 am
It’s just rightists hating on Progressives.
poroti @ #1850 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 11:05 am
Coal gasification (where you may note that the hydrogen is extracted from the water, not the coal) went out of fashion about the same time as the steam locomotive.
James Campbell…sheesh. The Murdorcs must be running low on minions to sacrifice on the Bonfire of Vanities.
New German poll from Kantar:
Greens 28% (+6)
CDU/CSU 27% (-2)
SPD 13% (-2)
AfD 10% (-1)
FDP 9% (NC)
Left 7% (-1)
Others 6% (NC)
Poll Size: 1,225
Taken: April 15 – April 21
Published: April 24
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm
meher baba says:
Friday, April 23, 2021 at 10:58 am
It would appear that the WA Government, which is capable of closing its borders to the rest of the country in the course of an afternoon, requires several weeks to shut down a quarantine hotel that has been identified as unsafe. End result: spread of the disease in the hotel and on a plane flight to Victoria
——————————————————————————
As usual, another crock from Masta-baba. He wants the states to handle the fight against an international pandemic.
As someone who remembers the Quarantine Station at North Head in Sydney, in use during the mass immigration period of the late 1940’s and early 1950’s, I can’t fathom why the Morrison government has escaped responsibility for the widespread quarantine failures.
Quarantine for obvious reasons is a national responsibility. To argue otherwise is nonsense. The Ruby Princess fiasco was the direct result of this abdication of responsibility. During World War II did we leave the defense of Australia to the states? This is a real war against an invisible enemy.
Morrison and his gang failed to shut down the borders soon enough last year and the virus had quite a run until the states got it under control. They constantly had to battle Morrison and his “economy before health,” “open-up” crowd to accomplish this.
The LNP left the states to cobble together the clearly inadequate hotel system instead of immediately planning for North Head-style facilities like Howard Springs but near capital cities.
If they had, we’d have them operating now, enabling the repatriation of those tens of thousands of Australians who are stranded overseas.
And of course, like true conservatives, they think that nothing like this will ever happen again.
A year later and we are still arguing about it.
U.S. COVID update:
– New cases: 53,298 ………… – New deaths: 757
– In hospital: 42,234 (-575)
– In ICU: 10,330 (-8)
585,880 total deaths now
( India reports 348,831 new coronavirus cases / 2,760 new deaths )
sprocket_ @ #1839 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 10:19 am
Didn’t miss much if those two rightist partisan hacks were the main attractions on Insiders.
Check this Vaccine Spotter web site out from the US – perhaps our local authorities could do something similar
https://www.vaccinespotter.org/
Re Player 1 @11:18.
That process seems to produce as much CO2 as burning coal directly. It looks useless for reducing emissions, although we wouldn’t hear that from the Coal-Liberal-National-Murdoch Coalition.
Zerlo
Exactly the point I was making no matter how it upsets your sensibilities to be talking about the reality of military power. That was part of posts outlining why China will not invade Taiwan with the conclusion I don’t expect China to be stupid.
BW and Cat
You have done very poorly today. So upset the post from Theo was from the Greens you ignored the racism. Pauline Hanson would be proud.
Ignoring the probability of new stains evolving from pandemic spread in India et al, James Campbell said the need for quarantine would be over middle of next year. This is the Opinion Editor of an influential Victorian newspaper speaking. Anything to excuse Morrison’s lack of action.
Theo Andelini says:
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 11:22 am
New German poll from Kantar:
Greens 28% (+6)
CDU/CSU 27% (-2)
SPD 13% (-2)
FDP 9% (NC)
German centrist voters are shuffling their intentions. The result in Germany will be more of the same, on the whole, with fresh paint on the walls and new drapes in the sitting rooms and high chambers. The stone benches in the forecourt will be thoroughly sprayed again (as they are every year) and the fountains drained and deep-cleaned. They will be immaculate and their gorgeous spray will refract all the light. Sublime. This will be change in Germany. The Ode to Joy will still be played, of course. The aural splendour and the poetry will not be meddled with. Thank goodness for that.
An important marker of geo politics
Indonesia is choosing democracy and the west however flawed it’s own democracy is.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/24/myanmar-asean-holds-crisis-talks-as-junta-leader-makes-first-foreign-trip
So there you go Asians for democracy. No excuse to be racist.
Edit: China’s government muddies the waters here with claims it’s racist to legitimately critique the Chinese Communist party. Using the common short hand of China. It actually opens the door for the yellow peril racism to gain credibility
Steve777 says:
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 11:31 am
Re Player 1 @11:18.
That process seems to produce as much CO2 as burning coal directly. It looks useless for reducing emissions, although we wouldn’t hear that from the Coal-Liberal-National-Murdoch Coalition.
The LNP enjoy their reputations as CO2-heavy. This is political machismo on display. Not for them is the pursuit of the clever (that is, the feminine) nor the wise (that is, the old). They prefer climate biffo. Their testicles swell with CO2.
Steve777 @ #1861 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 11:31 am
Both coal gasification and natural gas reforming as sources of hydrogen only make sense if you capture the C02 – this is called “blue” hydrogen.
However, due to the nature of coal, gasification also produces other nasty by-products that need to be managed.
I can’t see any reason to prefer coal gasification over natural gas reforming … unless you happen to own lots of otherwise useless coal mines, I guess.
So I expect Australia will invest in it big-time! 🙂
Lest we forget the poor souls killed and maimed in senseless wars together with their broken families, all in the name of inhumane power hungry politicians.
@GDixon1977 tweets
From the USA Washington Post: “Biden’s climate summit also featured a number of conspicuous laggards. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison – who once gleefully brought a chunk of coal into his country’s parliament – said his right-wing government…2/
@lee_manwaring tweets
Note.
The Washington Post!!
They are “WOKE” and with any luck, so are the American people and the rest of the International Community!!
@bruce_haigh tweets
#auspol #insiders Poor Dutton, clueless. Putting troops into Afghanistan had nothing to do with the security of Australia. Nor was Iraq.
@noplaceforsheep tweets
Instead of complaining about lockdowns people could shirtfront Morrison about the paucity & limited choice of vaccines. That’s actually the problem.
__________________
@adamlmorton tweets
Really not sure where to start on the insiders climate discussion. Looking forward to this revelation of how hydrogen can be extracted from coal without burning it and with zero emissions. Sounds impressive. Have a good Sunday.
beguiledagain
Hear hear!
Victoria @ #1872 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 12:10 pm
+1
Morrison is a deadbeat fraud of a leader.
A charlatan who takes no responsibility, just points fingers, floating day to day in a haze of bullshit.
Rex Douglas @ #1864 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 11:52 am
…and corporations….
@crikey_news tweets
Australia is a climate criminal, and should be treated as such, writes Bernard Keane. Will the rest of the world fall for Morrison’s lie-based climate policy like our media have?
https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/04/23/with-australias-climate-criminal-status-on-global-display-what-fate-awaits/
Murdoch’s Oz on Dutton just now – Dutton wants to be a wartime prime minister, which is a terrifying thought.
‘steve davis says:
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 11:11 am
Ardern, New Zealand criticised for soft stance on China
A vote about China took a wild turn in the UK where MPs celebrated Australia’s tough stance only to turn the blowtorch on New Zealand.
So what. New Zealand are their own nation. Why should they join everyone else?’
———————
Here are some observable and factual statements on the matter. Judgement on the facts obviously depends on the values the observor brings to the facts:
New Zealand will do what it perceives to be the national interest of New Zealand.
New Zealand perceives it is in the national interest not to deepen its commitment to Five Eyes.
New Zealand perceives it is in the national interest apply self-censorship with respect to China when it comes to public criticisms of China.
While New Zealand does apply self-censorship with respect to China, New Zealand does not apply self-censorship when it comes to public criticisms of Australia.
China is a totalitarian despotism.
Australia is a friendly democracy.
To the extent to which New Zealand does flag concerns about China* it does so through multilateral statements.
With respect to public commentary, New Zealand gives priority to Xi’s public commentary priorities.
Xi is a murderous, genocidal despot.
*The concerns are usually coupled, in vague terms, with New Zealand wanting some process or other to investigate something or other. Both New Zealand and China know that the process will never happen because China does not do transparency when it comes to human rights and genocide.
citizen @ #1876 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 12:24 pm
No worries. He can just declare war on New Zealand. At least we would have some chance of winning.
BW
Unlike you New Zealand doesn’t do Yellow Peril.
citizen @ #1876 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 12:24 pm
I mentioned this the other day that Dutton went to Defence for a reason.
This corrupt and incompetent bunch of rightist extremists will stop at nothing to hold onto power.
NZ would be sensible to distance themselves from the current version of Australia.
Approximate statistics.
39,000 Afghanistan War vets. 11,000 on the vets health card. 41 dead. 260 physically wounded. 500 suicides.
My view, FWIW, is that counting those with emotional and mental health injuries should be a normal inclusion in the WIA column.
Assuming that the health cards are an informal measure of that intention, then the casualty rate for the ADF in the Afghanistan War is around 25%.
Where were all my Lefty comrades when we took to the streets against the Afghanistan War?
Against the Vietnam War we were up to a 100,000 at a time.
That Afghanistan War? Not so many. Not nearly so many.
Plenty of righteous hand-wringing now but where were youse when it might have made a real difference?
Never have so few carried the can for so many.
JFC! Defence Minister Dutton wants to go to war against China.
China is our major trading partner and source of our wealth
All our manufactured goods come from China
USA is not planning a war with China & won’t support us
China has the largest standing army in the world, MIG25s which outperform our notional F35s
China has a foothold in Australia and a navy
“Bombed back to the stone age” is a phrase that comes to mind
It’s a scary thought but I have to ask given his posts lately.
Is BW Peter Dutton?
Not sure what’s worse anymore, the Morrison fiasco or the supine opposition.
I think Australia is looking more hypocritical when it comes to human rights towards China given our treatment of asylum seekers.
Our government has put us further up the corruption index.
And now they try to lie about our commitment to reduce emissions to the rest of the world.
I feel that their is much to repair in our own backyard.
New Zealanders, including everyone from dairy farmers to the prime minister, are perfectly conscious that if the New Zealand Parliament were to adopt a motion condemning China for the Uigher Genocide then their major export earner, dairy products to China, would be at severe risk.
Now, some people cast that awareness of risk as being a sort of reflexive historical white racism in the tradition of solar topees, and the yellow peril and even safari suits. It turns out that even Maori are capable of this sort of white colonialist racism.
Hundreds of millions of east asians and south-east asians already know perfectly well that China is inflicting, and will inflict, trade pain on any government that publicly criticizes Xi’s behaviour, the behaviour of the CPC, and/or the behaviour of China. All the actors and reactors in that sentence are asian. Not a Yellow Peril White in sight… A bit awkward, the facts, but hey…
New Zealand is in the situation of STFU up or China will cripple its economy. They know it. They are self-censoring. Vale democracy.
Nicko @ #1886 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 12:41 pm
Projection is their specialty, along with corruption and ineptitude.
Player One says:
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 11:18 am
poroti @ #1850 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 11:05 am
P1
Coal gasification (where you may note that the hydrogen is extracted from the water, not the coal) went out of fashion about the same time as the steam locomotive.
For once we agree, producing Hydrogen from coal is first grade bullshit.
guytaur @ #1862 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 11:31 am
guytaur, remove the Green log from your own eye first. No criticism of Quoll’s abusive posts that I can see from you. Maybe that’s because you agree?
And that, ‘Pauline Hanson would be proud’ smear is just lame. Also completely juvenile. How old are you again? Do you even know how to adult? 🙄
Cat
The post was tweets from Jenny Leong of NSW politics. Tweets that were part of this.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/anti-asian-hate-vigil-in-australia-hears-calls-for-tougher-laws-and-compulsory-training
You have been so keen to bash the Greens you missed the point entirely.
Outlining racist attacks on Asians as she was a high profile speaker at the vigil.
Loose lips sink ships?
‘War with China can’t be discounted’ is NOT the same as ‘I want to go to war with China.’
@cnn tweets
Democratic state Sen. Troy Carter will win the special election runoff in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District, CNN projects
BW,
If you want peace, plan for war.
There seems to be a general view that decisions to go to war or to initiate a war are rational decisions.
I class a rational decision to go to war as one in which what the decider expects to happen ends up happening.
In history war decisions are more often than not bad decisions.
There is no particular reason to expect Xi or Ing-wen or Morrison or Biden to make rational decisions with respect to a possible Taiwan War.
Some of the pre-conditions for bad war decisions with respect to Taiwan are in place now. Xi has talked himself into a corner.
The United States has been less than clear about how it would respond to China initiating a war against Taiwan.
The civilian population in China is being prepared for the war with rank nationalism and resentment feeding.
Vastly ramped up military spending is often a precursor for bad war decisions.
The gap in expectations about what is acceptable between Taiwan and China are widening.
Xi may be a despot but he is vulnerable to either a coup or assassination by the PLA. To keep the PLA onside he needs to rattle the sabre.
There is much military provocation, such as the dozens of intrusions by fighters and bombers which could easily go pear-shaped by way of an accidental discharge.
Despotism is inherently a war risk because a single individual can pull the war trigger at will.
The CPC believes that it is part of its historic destiny to complete the revolution by capturing Taiwan.
Astute observors will note that among the above, there is not a lot of rationality but plenty of dumbass dangerous behaviours and plenty of dumbass emotionalism.
guytaur @ #1891 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 12:56 pm
guytaur,
So sorry I haven’t been glued to the blog like you and thought you were referring to Quoll’s earlier bashing of anyone who comes under Quoll’s rubric of ‘Labor stooges’. Sorry for having a life guytaur. Sorry for taking the time out on ANZAC Day to bake a couple of batches of Anzac biscuits. Sheesh!
As far as Jenny Leong is concerned, did she reach out to Penny Wong, Michelle Rowland or Jason Yat Sen Li from Labor? They are all Pan Asian Australians too.
Did she reach out to any Asian Australian from any other political party or did she just want to hog the limelight all to herself?
Greensborough Growler @ #1894 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 1:08 pm
And if you want war, boerwar.
Cat
See you can’t help yourself. You have to Green bash and not just accept she has a point.
I am glad a politician was willing to stand up against racism in an era suffering the ongoing effects of the Trumpism China Virus rhetoric.
It’s real not fake.
boerwar @ #1887 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 12:41 pm
It goes a little something like this:
I take it this tweet refers to the background to the Perth covid breakout.
Paul Bongiorno
@PaulBongiorno
·
2h
So an Australian goes to a family wedding in the world’s worst COVID hot spot and then brings the virus back and spreads it.
How utterly unconscionable. 1. Family wedding = super spreader event. 2. The country’s govt by its stupidity has supercharged the pandemic
Bongiorno (and McGowan) is correct to be outraged. Last year people were not allowed to travel interstate for funerals. Now they can go O/S for a wedding?? Who is running our travel approvals? Qantas?