The Age/Herald have published their first poll of federal voting intention since the 2019 election, dispensing with the services of Ipsos (who happened to be the least wrong pollster at the election) and enlisting Resolve Strategic, which is run by Jim Reed, who once worked for Coalition pollsters Crosby Textor. As national political editor Tory Maguire explains, the polling failure of the last election has inspired the pollster and its publisher to cast around for a fresh approach, the salient feature of which is not telling us straight what the two-party preferred is.
We do get primary votes though, and they are quite a bit different from Newspoll’s, with the Coalition on 38% rather than 40% and Labor on 33% rather than 38%. This means higher scores for minor parties, which happens to replicate a peculiarity of Ipsos. The Greens are on 12% compared with Newspoll’s 11%, but most striking is a 6% reading for One Nation compared with 2% from Newspoll. The latter result is, hopefully, a teething problem: it approximates the party’s 5.4% Senate vote in 2019, but most assuredly would not be matched in the House of Representatives since the party contests few seats there. It also seems highly unlikely that One Nation would be bearing up so well given its recent performance at state elections, with its share of the upper house vote in Western Australia having crashed from 8.2% to 1.5%.
Applying preference flows from 2019, this lands pretty much bang on 50-50 nationally, with the Coalition leading 53.4-46.6 in New South Wales (a 1.6% swing to the Coalition) and 54.3-45.7 in Queensland (a 4.1% swing to Labor), but trailing 53.8-46.2 in Victoria (a 0.7% swing to Labor) and 52.4-47.6 in Western Australia (an 8.0% swing to Labor). The New South Wales result is more favourable for the Coalition than the recent quarterly breakdown in Newspoll, which had it at 50-50, but the results for the other three states are about the same. Distinctions by gender are slight in the case of voting intention, except that the Greens are three points higher among women and One Nation are two points lower, and confounding in the case of personal ratings: Scott Morrison’s net approval is four points stronger among women than men, while Anthony Albanese’s is five points weaker.
Personal ratings are measured on a four-point scale of very good, good, poor and very poor, which is similar to Essential Research but different from Newspoll’s straightforward satisfied and unsatisfied responses. Morrison registers a combined good rating of 50% and a poor rating of 38%, a net rating of plus 12% that compares with plus 17% from a recent Essential poll and plus 15% from a not-so-recent Newspoll. Anthony Albanese scores 35% good and 41% poor, for a minus 6% rating that compares with plus 5% from Essential and plus 2% from Newspoll. Morrison is credited with a 47-25 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 47-28 in Essential and 52-32 in Newspoll.
The poll wins points for transparency, at least by Australian standards, in providing breakdowns by state (or at least, the four biggest states), gender and age cohort. If I’m reading the small print correctly, the New South Wales and Victoria breakdowns will be published as a two-month rolling average, combining the current and previous poll. The idea seems to be that these states will have results with sample sizes robust enough to allow the Age/Herald to analyse them with a straight face: readers who choose to probe deeper into the breakdowns will be advised to exercise their own caution. (UPDATE: It seems I’ve read this wrong, and that there will actually be state voting intention results published every two months, based on the combination of two monthly polling samples). However, the results as published still leave a fair bit missing, as the poll is also weighted for education and income (and the survey includes a question on religion), for which breakdowns are not provided. There is also the rather glaring absence of any detail on field work dates: we are told only that the survey was conducted “in April”.
One of two accompanying reports by David Crowe relates the following detail absent from the published numbers:
Support for the Coalition in primary vote terms has fallen since the last election among voters who described themselves as Christian, dropping from 56 to 49 per cent. While support for Labor among this group rose from 28 to 29 per cent, the change was within the margin of error. In a more significant shift, the same cohort increased its support for independents and minor parties from 15 to 22 per cent. The Coalition has lost ground among voters across the board since the last election, with its primary vote slipping from 41 to 38 per cent, but the shift was strongest among immigrants and people from “non-Anglo-Saxon” backgrounds. Immigrants have reduced their support for the Coalition from 48 to 40 per cent since the election, while increasing their primary vote for Labor from 30 to 35 per cent. Those from “non-Anglo” backgrounds reduced their support for the Coalition from 44 to 35 per cent, while increasing their support for Labor from 31 to 36 per cent.
The other tells us the following:
The swing against the Coalition was spread evenly across most demographic groups but was more pronounced among those on higher incomes, with support falling from 49 to 43 per cent among those earning more than $100,000 a year. Labor gained support from the same workers, with its primary vote rising from 29 to 33 per cent.
There are further attitudinal results available in a nicely laid out results display page, including the finding that 44% expect the Coalition to win the next election compared with 28% for Labor. The display includes, under “comments”, sampling of qualitative responses that aim for an impressionistic view of why the ratings for each question are what they are. The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 2000, compared with the Newspoll norm of around 1500. However, the phone sample of 400 appears to be a one-off of this “baseline survey”: it seems that in future the series will be a monthly online poll from a sample of 1600.
guytaur @ #1898 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 1:15 pm
No, just making my own point. The Greens are not a protected species who can bash Labor all day long but are off limits when the shoe is on the other foot.
Cat
No you just Green bashed and ignored what the issue was about.
That’s a very Pauline Hanson approach to politics on racism.
Not your intention but it’s what you are doing.
Socrates @ #1900 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 1:18 pm
I don’t think it gets more amateurish than this.
It IS totally OUTRAGEOUS.
This is a bit of propaganda from South Korea on North Korea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVu7Yow1XUY
This is how you deal with the reality of a dictatorship as you engage constructively with them.
No racism involved as both sides are Korean.
Can Australia achieve herd immunity to coronavirus, and what happens if not?, The Guardian, 25 April 2021 (8.21 AEST), https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/25/can-australia-achieve-herd-immunity-to-coronavirus-and-what-happens-if-not
Very informative article. Highly recommended.
Curiously, however, the most salient fact is not mentioned: the AstraZeneca vaccine’s efficacy is under 70%.
Another is that Pfizer and Moderna are in Phase 2 trials for children 6 months to 11 years old. AstraZeneca’s trial for children ages 6-17 has been halted owing to clotting concerns; Johnson & Johnson also has paused its proposed trials for adolescents.
Australia’s vaccine selection and procurement strategies could have seen all Australians receive the highest efficacy mRNA vaccines. There is no reason why these strategies should not be modified to do so now as a matter of urgency.
SEE also: COVID vaccines and kids: five questions as trials began, Nature, 21 April 2021, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01061-4
And for further background: Covid vaccine could be rolled out to children by autumn, BMJ, 16 March 2021, https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n723
Firefox, upthread:
If that happened, the results would be… a mess. Probably another election before too long. Of the seats in parliament (with a 5% threshold, so excluding “Others”), it’s more like:
Greens 30%
CDU/CSU 28.5%
SPD 14%
AfD 10.5%
FDP 9.5%
Left 7.5%
(Rounding to the nearest 0.5%. This is Sunday morning arithmetic. 😛 )
Assuming nobody wants to work with the Left (once were East German communists) or AfD (One Nation-ish, with gusts of up to neo-Nazi), there aren’t too many options there. A Green/CDU coalition might sound strange, but one’s been running Baden-Württemberg since 2016, apparently without the sky falling in. (That state govt was Green/SPD from 2011-16, but then the SPD vote collapsed.) Otherwise, a three-party coalition is required. Probably Green/SPD/FDP, which has run state govts before, although not with a Green at the top.
RH Wombat from about 10 am – my thought too. If Concord was still under Commonwealth control, they would have no end of clinicians to assist in quarantine and the lower ramps (swamps) would work well. But even at their 1942 peak, the ramps, massive as they were, only had 1,000 beds a tenth of what is required for NSW quarantine – so we need 10 of those
Of course there would be problems:
1. placing people in asbestos filled huts that were built in 1941 with a 10 year life span but were still being used in 2010
2. Returnees putting up with the level of accomodation that the diggers were used to – the outcry would be deafening. However they could go to the Red Cross Theatre for a fillum and a sing-along
3. As above the social distancing/privacy was negligible
4. The cold by the river at night! plenty of fresh air though
5. The thing that finally led to their demolition – possums getting out of the roof and getting in patients’ beds
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 1:35 pm
….
5. The thing that finally led to their demolition – possums getting out of the roof and getting in patients’ beds’
Love it.
As far as Jenny Leong is concerned…
….she was not bashing Labor (for a change) but highlighting sinophobic harassment. Fair comment, really. It’s a thing, the irrational fear and hatred of people of Chinese ethnicity or appearance, and expressions or actions that are stereotyping, demeaning or degrading. Why, we even see it here at PB from time to time.
There’s a like phobia about Labor on parade here nearly every day.
BW
If you thought I was making it up
https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/report-shows-asbestos-leaking-roof-and-a-possum-at-concord-hospital-20160324-gnqe57.html
Socrates @ #1900 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 1:18 pm
I thought it was only funerals and business, well I thought that was what Morrison said last week. Now people have been going to weddings all along!?!
Scott Morrison is as transparent as frosted glass.
A Green/CDU coalition might sound strange, but one’s been running Baden-Württemberg since 2016, apparently without the sky falling in.
This does not sound strange to me. There is a natural affinity between these groups, who are from the same cloth. Statist guidance of the market and all other important things, national cohesion within a Franco/German-led EU….Bismarck in tweed or Lycra….
Doesn’t anyone dare to say anything?
Peter Dutton as Defence minister scares me.
I think he has displayed authoritarian instincts. It’s why I am glad he is out of intelligence. With accurate intelligence Australia is far less likely to present information biased to be hostile to China.
It’s where NZ is right about the 5 eyes.
To keep the long peace we need accurate intelligence. Not biased inaccurate intelligence. The good thing is the US has long had practice at this with its Cold War with Russia.
Ronald Reagan knew how much it was costing Russia and set the US to outspend Russia. The Chinese fear is that different supply lines will enable the West to do the same to them.
China’s problem and where BW is right is that the International Rules Based Order is Liberal Democratic at it’s heart. In no small part Australia had a hand in that.
All the military systems in place for both China and the US are to avoid the mistakes that BW talks about. Russia not invading the Ukraine is testament to how both sides have learnt from recent history. Russia is testing the US and China is watching to determine its Taiwan response.
Dutton is this respect is doing the US work but he scares me because I remember the papers please for Melburnian’s.
Just a reminder that the west has left in ruins:
– poor countries and poverty.
– Afghan, Ukraine, Middle East
– Domestic Terrorists far right wing.
– so called nuclear weapons in Iraq.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 1:50 pm
BW
If you thought I was making it up’
Not for a second.
Zerlo
In the power game the West has a longer history. That includes what angers China of the racist British Imperialism.
China’s problem is mistaking that for a superior system to democracy. Democracy with all the flaws is still superior to China on human rights. The US has got into trouble precisely when it overrides it’s own democratic norms.
That’s not a good argument against democracy and standing up for human rights.
Secrecy is the enemy of democracy. Assange got that basic point right.
On the power front a China has to hope the arms sales to Taiwan are not nuclear. The arms build up is going to happen. A belligerent China might just make the US angry enough to be stupid and put nuclear arms into Taiwan.
It’s notable the “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy is pretty quiet and only one statement came from the embassy regarding Belt and Roads. In Victoria.
Twitter is a sewer
The actual ADF instruction is
“ If the person laying a wreath is not wearing military uniform, the person is to bow their head and pauses to remember after taking one pace rearwards. The is no requirement to place the right hand on the left breast pocket, i.e. over the heart region when a person bows their head and pauses to remember.”
https://www.defence.gov.au/ceremonial/anzacdayhandyhints.asp#Wreaths
Not discouraged but not a requirement but the partisan makes it a Federal case. The tradition has an interesting history and has nothing to do with the American custom
O.C re possums:
In the 1950s my father, a state public servant took up a position in a Central Western town in NSW. The position came with a designated house. The main part of the house was quite substantial but the bathroom and laundry had been attached more or less as a lean-to to the back of the house and were both unlined timber structures. On the first evening of occupation the air was rent with a loud scream from my younger sister in the bath. There was a possum sitting on the rafter above the bath observing her. Never did decide who got the greater shock.
The laundry floor sloped so much that Mum had to tether the washing machine (one of those round, drum like ones) to stop it heading for the door… but that’s another story.
From a British viewpoint. TLDR goes into China and the US and war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSzD0zk3qWg
O C
Then why has the hand over heart suddenly become the fashion for some LNP ministers? None of them wear a uniform. Morrison went to USA and copied Trump.
lizzie
It was the arsehole The Rodent who started that bullshit. A little something he picked up on his trip to yankee land during his visit to Dubya.
.
.
US President George W Bush and Prime Minister John Howard review marines at the Washington Navy Yard, 10 September 2001
poroti
I agree. But apparently if it’s mentioned on Twitter it proves that “Twitter is a sewer.”
lizzie
Twitter is a sewer is as accurate as society is a sewer.
The right just doesn’t like that it’s ideology is unpopular and twitter undermines the voting against self interest that maintains the rights power as twitter imparts knowledge to uninformed or ignorant voters.
Edit: Even as they use it themselves with Trump as their example.
@DanielBleakley tweets
Peter Dutton says war with China “cannot be discounted”.
Does that mean the Australian government is going to ask Scott Morrison’s best mate Andrew Forrest to stop selling iron ore to China?
@kylegriffin1 tweets
Political engagement by young Americans has surged to an historic high, and that’s bad news for the GOP.
A dozen years ago, 24% of Americans under 30 said they were politically active.
Today, that number is 36%.
For young Black Americans, it’s 41%.
Guytaur
Twitter’s sewer problem isn’t just about politics but across the board. The site needs to enforce better standards.
Guytaur
Young people don’t automatically equal left wing but this is the mistake many on the left keep making.
Beemer
Users need to use the mute and block functions.
Opinion is very different to abuse.
I have been fortunate not to have to use those functions too much as like the majority I don’t have that many followers.
It’s a resource issue not that Twitter is a sewer.
Beemer
In the US young people are to the left of the right wing extremists that is Trump’s Republican Party.
Dutto starting to master ‘the look’.
.
DisplayName says Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 9:11 am
To quote Wikipedia quoting The Lucky Country:
Australia was once the leader in computers. Our government of the time decided that we could leave that to the British and Americans and instead invested in agriculture.
Jaeger says Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 9:35 am
Thanks
guytaur says Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 12:02 pm
Morrison was going for the short term political win with a particularly stupid stunt, and not thinking about the long term impact. It’s one of his more pronounced weaknesses.
ABC website is reporting a McGowan Perth COVID update at 1:15pm AWST.
Mexicanbeemer at 3:11 pm
+11ty 🙂 Oh how I remember at the end of the 1990s/2000 hearing it was all doooooom for the Coalition as the ‘young’ ere so heavily Labor and of course the Coalition’s big lead was amongst the ‘oldies’. Once they dropped of the perch was game over…………………….apparently.
Guytaur
Heard much the same in the 1990s but that didn’t stop the Republicans holding the white house for 12 of the last 21 years.
The effect of young voters can be overstated.
However make no mistake in the US it’s different because the election results are on record. That increase in the active youth vote sees the Democrats win Midterms. Against the usual voting against the incumbent.
Remember in the US it’s turnout. So that active political engagement is a huge swing vote.
The Lousiana 2nd district is safe Democrat, centred on New Orleans – the member vacating has joined Biden’s team. So the runoff was a preselection between 2 Dems to run for the safe seat.. suggest Guytuar looks beyond the Twitter grab.
By ALLY MUTNICK
04/24/2021 10:41 PM EDT
Progressives suffered a disappointing setback on Saturday, after their favored candidate lost to a more establishment-aligned opponent in a special congressional election in Louisiana.
State Sen. Troy Carter, who was backed by top leaders of the Congressional Black Caucus, beat state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson in a runoff to fill a vacant House seat that quickly turned into a turf war for sparring factions of the Democratic party. He overcame more than a million dollars in outside spending backing Peterson to win, 56 percent to 44 percent, when The Associated Press called the race.
In one of his final acts as a member of Congress, Richmond backed Carter, who also nabbed endorsements from House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). Peterson was backed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), former Georgia governor candidate Stacey Abrams, EMILY’s List and activist Gary Chambers Jr., who came in third place in the March primary.
Carter took the first slot with 36 percent in that race, followed by Peterson with 23 percent.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/24/troy-carter-wins-louisiana-special-election-in-blow-to-progressives-484576
sprocket
That’s the point about my reply to Beemer. Youth engagement increasing Democratic election wins made no mention of progressive v centrist wings of the party.
It was a comment about the Democrats likelihood of winning elections against the GOP Trump’s extremist party.
To the point former Republican Governor John Kasich joined the Democrats.
lizzie @ #1940 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 3:27 pm
They deny science when doing so enables them to delay acting, and embrace it when that enables them to delay acting.
Eunoe
I found that article another irritating example of he said, she said.
You have to get nearly to the end to find that there are experts saying that herd immunity is possible. Most of the article before then relies upon one opinion and he’s generally waffling.
Also what it doesn’t say is that a small percentage difference in the ability of the vaccine to prevent re-transmission can make an enormous difference in terms of stepping over the line to herd immunity. Especially when the vaccination rate is closer to 60 percent than 80 percent.
So.. disappointing.
Edit: It also glosses over the danger of not having herd immunity. A situation where a new strain could start a massive and deadly outbreak. All the bullshit about “100 percent protection against severe covid” is based on a figure that is increasingly out of date. But worse, what happens to all the people who don’t get vaccinated, in a non-herd-immunity scenario? They don’t get protection at all.
bc
That ‘lucky country’ quote is spot on.
Really bad jumper clash in the ANZAC match spoiling the spectacle.
Surely the AFL can get this right.
@TurnbullMalcolm tweets
Every hour somebody disagrees or contradicts another in public life. But why is it standard journalistic practise to describe almost any contradiction as a “slap down” which denotes a violent & humiliating blow. Why characterise normal discourse in violent, or abusive terms?
@MrDenmore tweets
Conflict-driven business model. A media desperate for clicks beats up disagreement by amping up the intensity of the verbs. It’s all about generating heat, not light. Conflict and outage are ends in themselves. Hence #qanda
@awelder tweets
Also, people like @rgloveroz can then write disingenuous columns saying things like “why is public discourse so ugly? I blame social media”. It’s a bit like when normal, constructive policy discussion as “lashed out/hit back” instead of discussing the issue
‘Diogenes says:
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 3:45 pm
Really bad jumper clash in the ANZAC match spoiling the spectacle.
Surely the AFL can get this right.’
Yep.
Dutton’s getting in early and closing off this option is nifty work, IMO.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-25/australian-troops-will-not-return-to-afghanistan-peter-dutton/100093802
Really bad jumper clash in the ANZAC match spoiling the spectacle.
_____
As you know, NO-ONE can go against Collingwood’s wishes.