The Age/Herald have published their first poll of federal voting intention since the 2019 election, dispensing with the services of Ipsos (who happened to be the least wrong pollster at the election) and enlisting Resolve Strategic, which is run by Jim Reed, who once worked for Coalition pollsters Crosby Textor. As national political editor Tory Maguire explains, the polling failure of the last election has inspired the pollster and its publisher to cast around for a fresh approach, the salient feature of which is not telling us straight what the two-party preferred is.
We do get primary votes though, and they are quite a bit different from Newspoll’s, with the Coalition on 38% rather than 40% and Labor on 33% rather than 38%. This means higher scores for minor parties, which happens to replicate a peculiarity of Ipsos. The Greens are on 12% compared with Newspoll’s 11%, but most striking is a 6% reading for One Nation compared with 2% from Newspoll. The latter result is, hopefully, a teething problem: it approximates the party’s 5.4% Senate vote in 2019, but most assuredly would not be matched in the House of Representatives since the party contests few seats there. It also seems highly unlikely that One Nation would be bearing up so well given its recent performance at state elections, with its share of the upper house vote in Western Australia having crashed from 8.2% to 1.5%.
Applying preference flows from 2019, this lands pretty much bang on 50-50 nationally, with the Coalition leading 53.4-46.6 in New South Wales (a 1.6% swing to the Coalition) and 54.3-45.7 in Queensland (a 4.1% swing to Labor), but trailing 53.8-46.2 in Victoria (a 0.7% swing to Labor) and 52.4-47.6 in Western Australia (an 8.0% swing to Labor). The New South Wales result is more favourable for the Coalition than the recent quarterly breakdown in Newspoll, which had it at 50-50, but the results for the other three states are about the same. Distinctions by gender are slight in the case of voting intention, except that the Greens are three points higher among women and One Nation are two points lower, and confounding in the case of personal ratings: Scott Morrison’s net approval is four points stronger among women than men, while Anthony Albanese’s is five points weaker.
Personal ratings are measured on a four-point scale of very good, good, poor and very poor, which is similar to Essential Research but different from Newspoll’s straightforward satisfied and unsatisfied responses. Morrison registers a combined good rating of 50% and a poor rating of 38%, a net rating of plus 12% that compares with plus 17% from a recent Essential poll and plus 15% from a not-so-recent Newspoll. Anthony Albanese scores 35% good and 41% poor, for a minus 6% rating that compares with plus 5% from Essential and plus 2% from Newspoll. Morrison is credited with a 47-25 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 47-28 in Essential and 52-32 in Newspoll.
The poll wins points for transparency, at least by Australian standards, in providing breakdowns by state (or at least, the four biggest states), gender and age cohort. If I’m reading the small print correctly, the New South Wales and Victoria breakdowns will be published as a two-month rolling average, combining the current and previous poll. The idea seems to be that these states will have results with sample sizes robust enough to allow the Age/Herald to analyse them with a straight face: readers who choose to probe deeper into the breakdowns will be advised to exercise their own caution. (UPDATE: It seems I’ve read this wrong, and that there will actually be state voting intention results published every two months, based on the combination of two monthly polling samples). However, the results as published still leave a fair bit missing, as the poll is also weighted for education and income (and the survey includes a question on religion), for which breakdowns are not provided. There is also the rather glaring absence of any detail on field work dates: we are told only that the survey was conducted “in April”.
One of two accompanying reports by David Crowe relates the following detail absent from the published numbers:
Support for the Coalition in primary vote terms has fallen since the last election among voters who described themselves as Christian, dropping from 56 to 49 per cent. While support for Labor among this group rose from 28 to 29 per cent, the change was within the margin of error. In a more significant shift, the same cohort increased its support for independents and minor parties from 15 to 22 per cent. The Coalition has lost ground among voters across the board since the last election, with its primary vote slipping from 41 to 38 per cent, but the shift was strongest among immigrants and people from “non-Anglo-Saxon” backgrounds. Immigrants have reduced their support for the Coalition from 48 to 40 per cent since the election, while increasing their primary vote for Labor from 30 to 35 per cent. Those from “non-Anglo” backgrounds reduced their support for the Coalition from 44 to 35 per cent, while increasing their support for Labor from 31 to 36 per cent.
The other tells us the following:
The swing against the Coalition was spread evenly across most demographic groups but was more pronounced among those on higher incomes, with support falling from 49 to 43 per cent among those earning more than $100,000 a year. Labor gained support from the same workers, with its primary vote rising from 29 to 33 per cent.
There are further attitudinal results available in a nicely laid out results display page, including the finding that 44% expect the Coalition to win the next election compared with 28% for Labor. The display includes, under “comments”, sampling of qualitative responses that aim for an impressionistic view of why the ratings for each question are what they are. The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 2000, compared with the Newspoll norm of around 1500. However, the phone sample of 400 appears to be a one-off of this “baseline survey”: it seems that in future the series will be a monthly online poll from a sample of 1600.
poroti @ #1937 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 3:19 pm
And then I saw those teenagers swooning over John Howard when they ran into him at Circular Quay in Sydney and I knew the paradigm had well and truly changed wrt young people.
BW
How long will Australia last in a war against China?
Eg. How long before the oil supplies run out?
Cat
Australia is not the USA. The Democrats are not the Labor or Greens party.
Michael Tubbs Groundbreaking UBI Experiment Has STUNNINGLY Good Results
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MV70UdQPQ7A
guytaur @ #1953 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 4:15 pm
A gross generalisation, guytaur. And America has plenty of Conservative young people too.
Cat
Your reply is a gross generalisation. Precisely because the tweet I posted was about the Democratic Party in the USA.
First point of difference turnout requires engaged voters.
The 2020 Election Shift Reveals MASSIVE Electoral trends
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCWAad6kziw
Remember I think this guy is too optimistic about the Democrats. However he definitely makes good points.
Edit: it’s good to get your head around changes that are happening
China just won another battle in its conquest of the South China Sea – without even firing a shot.
Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has surrendered control of his nation’s fishing grounds.
“Subjugating the enemy’s army without fighting is the true pinnacle of excellence,” the ancient strategist Sun Tzu declared in his famous book, Art of War. It seems to be working well for Beijing.
Philippines President Duterte appears to be the latest victim.
Duterte this week addressed for the first time the crisis of hundreds of Chinese militia vessels swarming around Whitsun Reef and the Spratly Islands, elbowing Philippine boats out of their traditional fishing grounds.
After more than a month of international uproar, Duterte finally made his position clear.
He doesn’t want any trouble. “I’m not so much interested now in fishing,” he declared in a recorded public address. “I don’t think there’s enough fish to quarrel about.”
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/philippines-president-issues-threat-to-china-as-beijing-makes-moves-in-south-china-sea/news-story/96cdfd53f299ce73618567b230f3cf91
Guytaur
“How long will Australia last in a war against China?
Eg. How long before the oil supplies run out?”
I do not want Australia to go to war with anyone but I think that is the wrong way around. Most of Australia’s oil comes from the Middle East, most via Singapore.
Whereas China is a large oil importer, also mainly mid-eastern, with most of it coming through the Straights of Molucca, where it could easily be blockaded.
Boerwar
For what its worth I joined a legal street march against the Iraq War back in the Howard era. So lefties do protest starting wars 🙂 The invasion was obviously doomed to failure.
I’m sure that his been linked before – JuiceMedia’s take on Australia’s (and Victoria’s) electric vehicle policy is worth watching…
https://twitter.com/thejuicemedia/status/1385860761851817984?s=21
Disruption of Australian maritime movements and port activity represents a grave risk to our security. Now who could POSSIBLY have access to the IT systems being used in these operations?
Hint: Think of Darwin.
Just watched bits n pieces of insiders. Who the fek is James Campbell and what swamp did he crawl out of? When Mark Kenny and David Speers are taking a contrary view makes me wonder where and for what he actually stands. Personally I think he’s a plonker.
Bert
James Campblell is as full of shit as he is of himself!
guytaur says:
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 2:19 pm
Secrecy is what the west does best.
Secret trade deals.
Secretly wire tapping people.
Secretly monitoring of internet cables
Secretly giving police more powers.
Bannishing unions and protests.
poroti @ #2037 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 3:19 pm
Can’t conflate the U.S. situation with the Australian one.
In the US, younger people still lean heavily Democratic, and the doomsday scenario has more-or-less eventuated for the right. The GOP retains relevance purely through gerrymandering and anti-democratic anachronisms like the electoral college. If representation accuractely reflected which party got the most votes in the United States, the Republicans would already be terminal. Their dirty tricks won’t buy them much more time.
In Australia, the Coalition has a (rather pathetic) left-wing membership, and Labor has its own (equally confused) cohort of center-right’ers. Labor also burned a lot of credibility with younger voters in the last couple of cycles with their coal/global warming policies; from Shorten’s fence-sitting, onwards. The Democrats have never been quite that tone deaf when it comes to offering policies that young voters actually want.
lizzie @ #1913 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 2:11 pm
Lizzie – the Brit & Commonwealth custom is for those wearing medals to cover the medals with the right hand when approaching the cenotaph, in the main instance for the laying of wreaths.
The sentiment behind such is that the dead aren’t impressed by medals and covering them was intended as a act of respect.
I think this custom has become corrupted by the US practice of hand on heart, something completely different and really doubt if many of the Australians now ‘copying’ the US custom know it. Many relatives wear medals of now deceased recipients.
Our military people though would know and it wouldn’t be difficult to get it right if the motivation was there .
It is now 4 weeks since the last NewsPoll
Anyone have information on wether one will be out tonight?
lizzie @ #1913 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 2:11 pm
Here in Australia it’s known as “The RSL Salute”. As far as I know it’s been going on for donkeys years so I’m not sure it’s actually a yank thing. If it is I’ll stop immediately being a “yankophobe” and former weekend warriaor.
guytaur @ #1956 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 4:28 pm
guytaur,
I don’t know if you watched the American election as closely as I did but I know for a fact that Donald Trump and the Republican Party specifically targeted young Christian Conservatives, young Latino populations and young African American men, on top of the demographics of low education young people that Trump had already targeted and captured in 2016 (he didn’t get more votes in 2020 than in 2016 for no reason) and so, sorry, but the gross generalisation is yours. Young people in America do not uniformly vote Democrat, possibly a majority do but not the vast majority. It’s a problem that they have to address before 2022 or their success will be short-lived. Don’t forget, AOC’s vote went down in 2020. Those votes had to come from somewhere.
laughtong @ #1967 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 5:13 pm
I’ve been wondering the exact same thing.
@MarcTennant tweets
No new cases so far today in Perth. good news. But case from yesterday had gone far and wide – lots of new risk sites.
No decision on lockdown until tomorrow AM. That is understandable – we need as much data as we can.
I am going to teach online for week. I can so I can help
Cat
The tweet I posted did not say the youth vote was a block that would all vote for the Democrats. It was about winning elections.
We know the results. Biden won. All of Congress and the White House.
Instead of running these lane excuses all you had to say is the Democrats are being too optimistic about the trends. It could well be but going on trends of election results they have reason to be optimistic
The GOP thinks so too. That’s why all the voter suppression legislation
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/04/20/resolve-strategic-coalition-38-labor-33-greens-13/comment-page-40/#comment-3596432
I generally have no trouble working out what Greens, Libs (if Spinocchio less than Tonicchio), Nats, PHON stand for, unlike the Libs lite (though Albo rather than Destined to be so strategically marrying helped).
Perhaps that is because New Labour meant the likes of Bliar/ Brown, Juliar/ KRudd7x7, Clinton/ BHO (and it be even clearer in OH, IL, MN or DC) to focused on wanting to be a wolf, being a sheepdog was too much hard work, …?
BK @ #1963 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 4:57 pm
Sort of gathered that and he dribbled a steaming pile of the stuff. He’d even give scummo a run for his money and that’s saying something.
I copped some family criticism for not commemorating ANZAC Day. There are many modern trends about the day that piss me off. I have enormous respect for those who serve and have served in the military, as many of my family have. One pissoff among many is commentators saying service persons defended Australia. You might be able to say that to a degree when it was thought that the Japanese might invade but I can’t think of another war where this country was under direct threat.
When I was young, the ANZAC service was a very solemn affair. Memories would have been raw, many cried. That generation has almost died out. Wars since did not require a national effort involving civilians and service people and I hope we never have another conflict that does.
ANZAC Day is now a party for nationalists and I don’t like nationalists so why should I encourage them.
Some of that Democratic optimism will be based on polling like this
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/right_direction_wrong_track_april19
Bert, James Campbell is the Opinion Page editor for Murdoch’s Melbourne tabloid, The Herald Sun.
guytaur,
The Voter Suppression legislation is particularly targeted at communities of colour, rather than any specific age demographic.
College-Educated Voters ABANDONING Republican Party
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wohS9Wxvv4
I’m afraid this one went through to the keeper for me but then I aint aufait with Indian politics
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EzyI0wLVIAIkExX?format=jpg&name=4096×4096
Cat
That’s because engagement of voters hurts the GOP.
It’s why polling showing voter engagement is bad news for the GOP. Especially in groups known to be hard to engage.
C@tmomma @ #1977 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 5:38 pm
Thanks C@t. From what I heard today he should stay there and not appear in public.
guytaur @ #2081 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 5:42 pm
Yes, because the counterpoint to younger voters leaning heavily Democratic is that a lot of younger
votersvoting-eligible citizens don’t actually vote. Getting them engaged and voting would tend to disproportionately benefit one side/harm the other.Granny Anny @ #1975 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 5:35 pm
Excellent comment. I remember going to ANZAC day services with my dad, who served. After a short but meaningful commemoration they all went off to the pub and there was plenty of games of two-up (which I believe was illegal, but a blind eye was always turned on ANZAC day!)
He still kept up with his mates, but they pretty much all stopped going when the day turned into nothing more than a mawkish celebration of war.
ar
Voter turnout for the GOP in 2022 is going to be interesting. Trump is not on the ballot.
Stokes at work – preview of Ch 7 6pm Sydney news has item “Why the WA premier is being slammed for the Covid lockdown”.
P1
Courtesy in large part to Iraq war unindicted co-conspirator and ex PM J Howard. Don’t they make a lovely pair ?
Melania? Trump Jr? Trump’s niece standing for the Democrats?
Cud Chewer
Concur with each of your points. It is a broad overview article notable for glancing on topics other Australian MSM are not, but still not examining or assessing them in any depth (e.g. spelling out the efficacy implications of Australia’s current vaccine selection; the impending necessity for vaccinating Australian children and adolescents, etc.).
As you note too, the article ignores certain pertinent issues altogether. For me, they include variant implications by vaccine and the ramifications of vaccinating with AZ relative to herd immunity (including relative to Australia’s original 80% AZ – 20% Pfizer strategy), etc.
As an aside, it has been interesting to witness over the past eight or nine months the clear reluctance by The Guardian to spell things out relative to COVID vaccines. Some of its hesitancy may be grounded in a caution given the fluidity of the science. Certainly it will not want to leave itself open to claims of promoting vaccine hesitancy (although it could pro forma expressly state that it was not doing so).
Unfortunately, the extent of the self-censoring has devolved into an ongoing, oblique and insipid ‘read between the lines’ approach. The Guardian – nor other Australian MSM – isn’t directly confronting vaccine (as opposed to vaccination and vaccination rollout) issues, much less the Morrison Government for the seminal pandemic response decisions it has been making.
You’re probably aware of each, but besides following @EricTopol (U.S.), @hildabast [Hilda Bastian] (Aust) and @rajah_mich [Michelle Ananda-Rajah] (Aust), amongst others, @YouAreLobbyLud [David Berger] (Aust) is of interest at the moment in my continuing quest to gain more nuanced vaccine and COVID response information. U.S. media (NYT, WashPost, The New Yorker, The Atlantic, Vanity Fair) is now far less cowed than our own, but offers little on AZ implications as the U.S. hasn’t approved it.
I won’t link to Sky News but Bill Gates has talked about vaccine sharing in recent hours on the UK Sky News channel.
Sounds promising and the UK has got its vaccine rollout done relatively well.
Were they wise to get Bill Gates on ? After all isn’t he the one behind all those microchips being put into vaccines ? 😆
Stokes at work – preview of Ch 7 6pm Sydney news has item “Why the WA premier is being slammed for the Covid lockdown”.
Is that the Dutton/Stokes/Roberts-Smith eternal triangle at work?
Pelosi just can’t seem to string appropriate words together anymore.
Hardly the right ocasion for a heart full of joy.
James Campbell is the national politics editor at the Herald Sun newspaper. A solid reason not to buy it.
Bert @ #1982 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 5:44 pm
I’ve just been listening to Pod Save America and one of them made the very interesting point that, because people like that spend most of their time ensconced in their information bubble they actually believe what they say. So when people from outside their bubble challenge them and their beliefs they get very indignant and almost abusive towards anyone who contradicts them. Also, politicians especially who live like that just behave like it is the truth, when people like you and me know that they are delusional.
a r @ #1993 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 6:16 pm
She should have added, after ‘heart full of joy’…for Armenian Americans.
‘Socrates says:
Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 4:48 pm
Guytaur
“How long will Australia last in a war against China?
Eg. How long before the oil supplies run out?”
I do not want Australia to go to war with anyone but I think that is the wrong way around. Most of Australia’s oil comes from the Middle East, most via Singapore.
Whereas China is a large oil importer, also mainly mid-eastern, with most of it coming through the Straights of Molucca, where it could easily be blockaded.
Boerwar
For what its worth I joined a legal street march against the Iraq War back in the Howard era. So lefties do protest starting wars The invasion was obviously doomed to failure.’
Good on you for marching against the Iraq War.
Around 40% of China’s oil and gas travel across the Indian Ocean.
Around 40% of Australia’s oil comes from Singapore.
The strategic problem in both cases is that there are choke points that are ludicrously easy to blockade.
THE major problem for Australia is that our in-country storage is extremely low and our capacity to refine oil is collapsing.
Guytaur
The senate is basically tied and the Democrats only hold a small majority in the house.
Biden will probably win in 2024 but by then both the house and senate will probably be back in Republican hands.
Beemer
There are no indications today that is the case. By 2022 The Democrats could have a turnaround and a return to voting against the President’s party.
We shall see.
Granny Anny,
Having an ancestor who is one the few (hundred?) who literally died in WW2 fighting from the Australian continent, your sentiment seems fine by me.
The family left behind spent many decades on ANZAC days as you suggest, in more solemn remembrance not jingoism. Those direct family surviving are equally dismissive of the pop-show it has become. Seems it has often been a fraught day for various reasons..
As I’ve mentioned previously, it was also a fact that they did not even die as Australian citizens but as British subjects of the King, even if they died here. No-one did, until 1948.
Seems only people who have absolutely no understanding of the impact of loss in war to families has, can carry on as some do now. Agreed that none should wish for such a great need to remember such sacrifices again.