I had a vague hope that last fortnight’s sooner-than-expected Newspoll portended a return to a (usually) fortnightly rather than three-weekly schedule, but apparently not. Essential Research should be along this evening though, hopefully including its monthly leadership ratings. Then there’s this:
• Roy Morgan has published results of an SMS poll conducted on Friday and Saturday from a sample of 1423, which asked if respondents were still up for the COVID-19 vaccine in light of recent developments (only 17% were not, increasing to 24% when those who would only settle for Pfizer were included) and, most interestingly, if they approved of Scott Morrison’s handling of “all COVID-19 related issues”. In the absence of a non-response option, the latter question recorded 49% approval and 51% disapproval. I’m aware of two past polls that specifically asked about leaders’ rather than governments’ handling of COVID-19, both from Newspoll – one in April and one in July – from which the weakest result was 61% approval and 36% disapproval for Daniel Andrews in the July poll.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports that Andrew Laming has declined Scott Morrison’s invitation to sit out the preselection for his Brisbane seat of Bowman, and is “collecting evidence in an effort to disprove a series of allegations against him”. The report notes he has an incentive in a $105,600 reward available to to MPs who “retire involuntarily”, which would not be granted if he went gracefully. Laming will also need to pass muster with the Liberal National Party’s “candidate suitability panel” if his nomination is to proceed to the stage where local party members have a say.
• In a piece for The Conversation, Benjamin Reilly of the University of Western Australia evaluates the likely impact of optional preferential voting, as mooted by the Coalition members of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. The conclusion is that Labor would only have won about half of the 36 seats it won on preferences at the 2013, 2016 and 2019 elections after trailing on the primary vote, and that few if any members of the House of Representatives front bench would have got their foot in the door.
• I have a guide up for the Upper Hunter state by-election in New South Wales on May 22, though it’s still at a preliminary stage since most of the candidates haven’t been announced, together with a Tasmanian state election guide that has lately been supplemented with a page for the Legislative Council contests.
So, AP now has two people in the same job: Christine Holgate who has not resigned, and the Board’s replacement appointee apparently bodgied into the job on the night before Estimates.
Brilliant.
EVERY.
boerwar @ #849 Tuesday, April 13th, 2021 – 6:45 pm
Unless you are Xi.
‘poroti says:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 5:29 pm
south
Scotty has found a very successful formula when in the shit due to some great big scandal or fuck up. Distract public attention with another scandal or fcuk up and Voila ! the public moves on.’
This was OH’s suggestion for the most likely reason why Morrison savaged Holgate.
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 6:51 pm
boerwar @ #849 Tuesday, April 13th, 2021 – 6:45 pm
The only numbers that matter are the votes on election day.
Unless you are Xi.’
haha
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 5:50 pm
It will be interesting to see how the national news networks cover today’s events at 6pm.
________________
Care factor zero for most Australians.
Taylormade @ #855 Tuesday, April 13th, 2021 – 6:52 pm
You wish!
Albo is in Perth right now…About his 3/4th visit in living memory as opposed to Morrison’s zero in 23 months….Albo sounds sincere…. Morrison now, and always, has sounded a phoney…………However, nice as Albo is, I wish he had a bit more acid…….Morrison is a recognised and efficient Liberal shit…..and good at the job of being such…..Albo runs the risk of being just too damned soft…….
Re clots, a risk of clots of about 5 per million with a 25% mortality rate – so about 1/800,000. That is trivial compared with everyday risks. It’s about the risk of dying on the roads in the next 7-10 days.
It doesn’t seem like a showstopper compared to the risks posed by Covid.
Assuming, of course, that we can believe the numbers. They come from experts, not the Government. It’s early days, there aren’t years of experience so there would be some uncertainty, but on balance I believe it’s the best estimate on the available info.
Holgate publicly announced her resignation on 2 November and announced. How can she now claim she didn’t resign?
Knives are out for Morrison, it seems.
Predictable, and about time.
Notice Bridget McKenzie was all gooey sisters with Holgate. She would hate Morrison for sacking her over Sports Rorts: something she only did at his behest.
Greensborough Growler says:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 6:51 pm
Childish jokes that only Trump supporters would say.
davidwh @ #859 Tuesday, April 13th, 2021 – 6:56 pm
Did she? Seems it was announced by others.
Howard was the master at setting up a distraction to divert attention from whatever scandal was about to loom.
Morrison’s crap at it. His distractions turn into new scandals.
davidwh says:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 6:56 pm
Holgate publicly announced her resignation on 2 November and announced. How can she now claim she didn’t resign?
————
during Question time Morrison told her to go on the 22nd October 2020
I understand that some of you have become enthusiastic supporters of Ms Holgate because you believe there are aspects of the process through which she was removed that reflect badly on ScoMo and his government.
However, the facts of the matter are that this very highly-paid public servant (albeit paid far less than her ludicrously overpaid predecessor) used taxpayer funds to buy expensive gifts for other very highly-paid public servants.
I’ll accept that the process through which she was removed smells pretty bad. But so did her actions in purchasing those gifts. Once upon a time, high level jobs in the Postmaster-General’s Department were seen as sinecures for senior public servants who weren’t cutting it in more serious jobs. But the modern Australia Post – still a monopoly service provider which is under no real pressure to deliver returns for its shareholders – now sports a bunch of senior executives who are all receive salaries above that of the Prime Minister. And, on top of their inflated salaries, they get expensive gifts to boot. That sucks IMO.
The Age 13/04
Bacchus Marsh landfill site Maddingley Brown Coal is the latest to be approved by the Environment Protection Authority to receive huge amounts of rock and soil from the controversial project, which is running at least two years late and estimated by Treasury to be $3 billion over budget.
________________
Who is going to pay the extra $3 billion. Andrews has said many times taxpayers will not be paying 1 extra cent.
DavidWH
If things go badly, can I have your stuff?
Re “Preferred PM”. I always think of a lead of 45-30 to the incumbent as being about neutral. Of all the polling metrics, it’s the one that inevitably most favours whoever has the job at the time.
Albo has closed the gap to 47-28, so he’s almost there, having come from a long way back. Like everyone else, I wish he was doing more. But if the next Newspoll has Labor’s 2PP lead continuing to grow, you’d have to say that he’s doing ok.
On the other hand, this story is really interesting:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-13/questions-over-andrew-lamings-link-to-rugby-club-that-won-grant/100064194
“The grant to build a new clubhouse for the Southern Bay Cyclones Rugby Union Club in Redland Bay, Queensland, was part of a controversial government program to promote women’s sport known as the Female Facilities and Water Safety Stream.
“When it was announced the alarm bells went off straight away because the club itself didn’t have any female teams. To my knowledge, it still doesn’t,” Don Brown, a Queensland state Labor MP, told 7.30.”
Morrison needed a distraction and Holgate was expendable.
Meher,
my interest in this is only because it has potential to hurt Morrison. I wouldn’t have bought watches. A cash bonus as a performance incentive would have been more apt for government.
This is just one of those, business meets government moments where you see culture s are different.
If she’d taken them on a 10k day trip on a yatch on Sydney Harbour no one would have blinked an eye. Its just expensive gifts on first glance always appear dodgy.
But just like the alleged rapist AG. Everyone deserves procedural fairness.
56,379 vaccines today which is a record for a Monday. Hopefully picks up over the next four days.
Taylormade @ #866 Tuesday, April 13th, 2021 – 7:15 pm
Thank goodness for Who!
A positive outcome for the Andrews’s Government.
Well done for overcoming your political prejudices to bring this matter to our attention.
No doubt Australia Post is on the list of publicly owned enterprises to be privatised. I expect it to happen the moment political conditions are right.
meher baba says:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 7:12 pm
I understand that some of you have become enthusiastic supporters of Ms Holgate because you believe there are aspects of the process through which she was removed that reflect badly on ScoMo and his government.
However, the facts of the matter are that this very highly-paid public servant (albeit paid far less than her ludicrously overpaid predecessor) used taxpayer funds to buy expensive gifts for other very highly-paid public servants.
————————————————–
hypocrisy by newsltd and Morrison is
So did libs/nats Ministers and highly paid public servants who were appointed by the libs/nats and not one has been sacked
Greensborough Growlersays:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 6:51 pm
boerwar @ #849 Tuesday, April 13th, 2021 – 6:45 pm
The only numbers that matter are the votes on election day.
Unless you are Xi.
—————————-
Love it growler. Spent most of my life as a China supporter. Xi has changed that.
Gosh, Holgate is a good communicator. Standing up to make sure no one is Bullied again!
So bad for the pm.
davidwhsays:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 6:56 pm
Holgate publicly announced her resignation on 2 November and announced. How can she now claim she didn’t resign?
—————————-
Did Holgate actually announce her resignation or was it announced by others?
davidwhsays:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 6:56 pm
Holgate publicly announced her resignation on 2 November and announced. How can she now claim she didn’t resign?
—————————-
Did Holgate actually announce her resignation or was it announced by others?
”Transparency and accountability are two of the most crucial tools a government has in managing a public health crisis…“
Unfortunately the Morrison Government doesn’t do either.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/13/pfizer-covid-vaccine-is-now-crucial-to-australia-why-the-secrecy-about-how-much-we-have
When the Government refuses to answer questions, we should rightly assume that the answers would reflect badly on it. I suppose it’s even possible that they genuinely don’t have a clue what’s going on, which might be even worse.
An analysis of US Democratic polling failure in 2020…
By STEVEN SHEPARD
04/13/2021 04:31 AM EDT
A group of top Demoratic Party pollsters are set to release a public statement Tuesday acknowledging “major errors” in their 2020 polling — errors that left party officials stunned by election results that failed to come close to expectations in November.
In an unusual move, five of the party’s biggest polling firms have spent the past few months working together to explore what went wrong last year and how it can be fixed. It’s part of an effort to understand why — despite data showing Joe Biden well ahead of former President Donald Trump, and Democrats poised to increase their House majority — the party won the presidency, the Senate and House by extremely narrow margins.
“Twenty-twenty was an ‘Oh, s—‘ moment for all of us,” said one pollster involved in the effort, who was granted anonymity to discuss the process candidly. “And I think that we all kinda quickly came to the point that we need to set our egos aside. We need to get this right.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/13/dems-polling-failure-481044
‘Peter Stanton says:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 7:39 pm
davidwhsays:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 6:56 pm
Holgate publicly announced her resignation on 2 November and announced. How can she now claim she didn’t resign?
—————————-
Did Holgate actually announce her resignation or was it announced by others?’
Watch the 7.30 Report. Holgate is on. My reading is that she never resigned.
The trouble for Labor with Holgate is that Albo was a strong supporter on Scomo for her dismissal (as were much of the population).
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/10/30/holgate-untenable-australia-post-boss/
As MB says the concept of senior execs getting Cartiers for doing their jobs stinks
Having an upper-class Pommy bird, on a million dollar salary, crying poor me and blaming the Prime Minister plays out well in the ‘burbs for the Libs.
If she were a tattooed, toothless, fatherless daughter of an Italian cruise ship entertainer with a lisp from west Sydney – maybe not.
OC
She was not dismissed. She has not resigned.
They have two people in the same job.
Southsays:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 7:21 pm
Meher,
my interest in this is only because it has potential to hurt Morrison. I wouldn’t have bought watches. A cash bonus as a performance incentive would have been more apt for government.
———————————-
$20k for people who already have very high incomes and obscene bonuses are of little meaning. An engraved expensive watch has much more meaning.
I am not defending the bludgers but can understand the intent.
Southsays:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 7:21 pm
Meher,
my interest in this is only because it has potential to hurt Morrison. I wouldn’t have bought watches. A cash bonus as a performance incentive would have been more apt for government.
———————————-
$20k for people who already have very high incomes and obscene bonuses are of little meaning. An engraved expensive watch has much more meaning.
I am not defending the bludgers but can understand the intent.
Southsays:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 7:21 pm
Meher,
my interest in this is only because it has potential to hurt Morrison. I wouldn’t have bought watches. A cash bonus as a performance incentive would have been more apt for government.
———————————-
$20k for people who already have very high incomes and obscene bonuses are of little meaning. An engraved expensive watch has much more meaning.
I am not defending the bludgers but can understand the intent.
ScottyTheBully trending downwards…
#Essential Poll Morrison: Approve 54 (-8) Disapprove 37 (+8) #auspol
Boerwar
As you have said.
Everything……
‘Graeme Graham says:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 7:45 pm
Having an upper-class Pommy bird, on a million dollar salary, crying poor me and blaming the Prime Minister plays out well in the ‘burbs for the Libs.
If she were a tattooed, toothless, fatherless daughter of an Italian cruise ship entertainer with a lisp from west Sydney – maybe not.’
Just another example of Morrison going the thug against a woman. It looks increasingly likely that Holgate was working, de facto, against the Coalition agenda to sell off AP so she had to go.
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.
RonniSalt
@RonniSalt
Would you like to see the Morrison govt’s DarkArtOfSpin in operation?
The BCG report recommending the selling off of #AustraliaPost for a value of $7.2 billion dropped privately to the govt in mid Feb 2020
Look where the creep of negative Christine Holgate media stories begins.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RonniSalt/status/1381855187019554817
Apparently Holgate on 7.30 just now kicking ScottyTheBully in the googlies- not only a bully, but having a secret agenda to sell off Australia Post..
‘Victoria says:
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 7:50 pm
RonniSalt
@RonniSalt
Would you like to see the Morrison govt’s DarkArtOfSpin in operation?
The BCG report recommending the selling off of #AustraliaPost for a value of $7.2 billion dropped privately to the govt in mid Feb 2020
Look where the creep of negative Christine Holgate media stories begins.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RonniSalt/status/1381855187019554817‘
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.THEY.CORRUPT.
Vote Liberal, see Your Australia Post destroyed.
I once “accidentally” had a meal with an American who had been an exec for an Australian bank.
It was his opinion that Australians were paying peanuts and getting monkeys in executive roles. This was severly affecting the quality of commerce in this country.
In other news of the several million dodgy overseas transactions that he had governance over only 11,000 amounted to a hill of beans.
After the meal I googled him. He is one of the very few Australian execs who had to give back his bonus before he went on gardening leave.
I may have a chip on my shoulder but I have difficulty having sympathy for any corporate execs.
Victoria @ #893 Tuesday, April 13th, 2021 – 7:50 pm
The reason the Nats are supportive of Holgate is that all the job losses would be in rural and regional areas.
GG
Precisely.
Re Michael @7:22
”56,379 vaccines today which is a record for a Monday. Hopefully picks up over the next four days.”
Looks like you got the numbers from this site, which seems to be fairly credible.
https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-vaccinations/aus
I note the numbers for the past week are about 380,000, about 54,000 per day. Moving in the right direction although it needs to be about 75,000 a day to give about 80% of the population a single dose by the end of the year. Double to allow for two doses.
Not just jobs. Crucial services.