Morgan COVID-19 poll, Laming latest and more

Evidence vaccine rollout issues are taking their toll on the Prime Minister’s popularity.

I had a vague hope that last fortnight’s sooner-than-expected Newspoll portended a return to a (usually) fortnightly rather than three-weekly schedule, but apparently not. Essential Research should be along this evening though, hopefully including its monthly leadership ratings. Then there’s this:

• Roy Morgan has published results of an SMS poll conducted on Friday and Saturday from a sample of 1423, which asked if respondents were still up for the COVID-19 vaccine in light of recent developments (only 17% were not, increasing to 24% when those who would only settle for Pfizer were included) and, most interestingly, if they approved of Scott Morrison’s handling of “all COVID-19 related issues”. In the absence of a non-response option, the latter question recorded 49% approval and 51% disapproval. I’m aware of two past polls that specifically asked about leaders’ rather than governments’ handling of COVID-19, both from Newspoll – one in April and one in July – from which the weakest result was 61% approval and 36% disapproval for Daniel Andrews in the July poll.

• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports that Andrew Laming has declined Scott Morrison’s invitation to sit out the preselection for his Brisbane seat of Bowman, and is “collecting evidence in an effort to disprove a series of allegations against him”. The report notes he has an incentive in a $105,600 reward available to to MPs who “retire involuntarily”, which would not be granted if he went gracefully. Laming will also need to pass muster with the Liberal National Party’s “candidate suitability panel” if his nomination is to proceed to the stage where local party members have a say.

• In a piece for The Conversation, Benjamin Reilly of the University of Western Australia evaluates the likely impact of optional preferential voting, as mooted by the Coalition members of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. The conclusion is that Labor would only have won about half of the 36 seats it won on preferences at the 2013, 2016 and 2019 elections after trailing on the primary vote, and that few if any members of the House of Representatives front bench would have got their foot in the door.

• I have a guide up for the Upper Hunter state by-election in New South Wales on May 22, though it’s still at a preliminary stage since most of the candidates haven’t been announced, together with a Tasmanian state election guide that has lately been supplemented with a page for the Legislative Council contests.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,028 comments on “Morgan COVID-19 poll, Laming latest and more”

Comments Page 17 of 21
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  3. Rex Douglas Says:
    Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 4:56 pm
    Anthony Albanese
    @AlboMP
    ·
    2m
    “Scott Morrison told Australians not to get their vaccine information from Facebook – but now he’s using Facebook to walk away from his government’s vaccination target, all because he doesn’t want to answer questions from journalists.

    That isn’t leadership. And we deserve better.
    ———-
    Albanese is doing him slowly.”

    I think Scomo is doing himself quite well all by himself.

  5. Elaine McKay
    @ElaineM11584892
    ·
    2h
    Lucio Di Bartolomeo was sacked by Christine Holgate’s husband from a mining company I think it was. This is his payback.

  9. Frednk,
    I worry about 3 stooges syndrome. So many fuckups they cancel each other out.
    I still feel Albo could be making more of a dent. But I will wait.

  10. Ven @ #286 Tuesday, April 13th, 2021 – 4:43 pm

    Did anybody on this site already discussed that Morrison is using the same strategy of not giving any info on Vaccinations like he did on ‘boat people’ when he was immigration minister by saying it is related to operational matters after appointing a military officer to oversee return of boats or locking them on remote island.

    I said last night that it looks to me like Morrison is adopting a small target strategy by sequestering himself away on facebook and having total control of the message. Out of sight, out of mind, till the heat dies down, and away from unfriendly journalists’ questions. Or you could say he’s put himself in a witness protection program. 😀

  13. Gotta say this surprised me the most today…..

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    1h
    Watching the #AustraliaPost Senate inquiry and the AusPost chair being questioned at the moment from all quarters is like watching the live dissection of an animal.
    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    1h
    Unlike the Australia Post chair, at least #ChristineHolgate came to the Senate inquiry armed with times, dates, facts and receipts.
    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    Replying to
    @RonniSalt
    The #AustraliaPost chairman at the moment is floundering so badly at the moment in the Senate inquiry even Pauline Hanson is tearing him apart.
    4:07 PM · Apr 13, 2021·Twitter Web App

  14. south
    Scotty has found a very successful formula when in the shit due to some great big scandal or fuck up. Distract public attention with another scandal or fcuk up and Voila ! the public moves on.

  16. It’s an interesting day in Australian politics when the the PM flees to the far flung province of WA where he and the Liberal Party have been beaten to an inch of their life in recent days. But that is a preferable situation to remaining in Canberra and facing the wrath and humiliation of answering questions about the Holgate matter.

    There’s a smell of death around this PM and Government and it is only going to become more rancid from here.

  17. GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes
    ·
    6m
    #Essential Poll Albanese (ALP voters): Approve 55 (-5) Disapprove 22 (+6) #auspol

    WTF ??????

  19. RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    Would you like to see the Morrison govt’s DarkArtOfSpin in operation?

    The BCG report recommending the selling off of #AustraliaPost for a value of $7.2 billion dropped privately to the govt in mid Feb 2020

    Look where the creep of negative Christine Holgate media stories begins.

    Barrie Cassidy
    @barriecassidy
    ·
    11m
    The theory here is that Christine Holgate was doing too good a job resurrecting AP when the government wanted losses as an excuse to privatise.

    Pure bastardry from this Govt.

  21. The PMO?

    Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    Australia Post chair says he called the minister’s office at 1 pm to say that Ms Holgate was resigning. It was then broken on Sky News 30 minutes later AP says they didn’t leak it. Ms Holgate says it was without her authorisation. Source of disclosure remains unknown.
    3:59 PM · Apr 13, 2021·Twitter Web App

  22. Victoria @ #319 Tuesday, April 13th, 2021 – 5:45 pm

    The PMO?

    Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    Australia Post chair says he called the minister’s office at 1 pm to say that Ms Holgate was resigning. It was then broken on Sky News 30 minutes later AP says they didn’t leak it. Ms Holgate says it was without her authorisation. Source of disclosure remains unknown.
    3:59 PM · Apr 13, 2021·Twitter Web App

    … but you can connect the dots.

  23. Rex:

    Don’t know how much we can read into that one, given the likely small sample size. It may reflect some frustration about the recent federal conference (eg. people annoyed the environmental platform went too far, or not far enough, or both), might be people who want Albo to be more visible / attack the government more, might just be a rogue or a correction of a previous rogue, might be a combination of all those things.

  25. Barrie Cassidy
    @barriecassidy
    ·
    11m
    The theory here is that Christine Holgate was doing too good a job resurrecting AP when the government wanted losses as an excuse to privatise.

    Good lord, if true, that is absolutely disgraceful.

    But remember, everyone, the Liberals manage money better. It’s in their DNA!

  27. The PMO?
    I think Ms. Holgates evidence pointed to Di Bartolomeol

    Rex Douglas

    Albo would be paying the justifiable price for keeping such a low profile he’s invisible

  29. The Monthly Today:

    While much of Holgate’s testimony about her unfair treatment was expected, her claims about the government and the Australia Post board went even further. Responding to questioning from Labor’s Kimberley Kitching, Holgate noted that the board was not independent, with many of its members having strong Coalition ties. She later implied that her removal may have had something to do with an agenda to further privatise Australia Post, saying an unreleased report into the privatisation was “worse than what you think”. “We should stop having secret reviews,” she added. “Australia Post is an asset for all Australians.” Holgate suggested Di Bartolomeo had removed her to “curry favour” with the government, singling out Communications Minister Paul Fletcher as someone who may have wanted her gone, and that board member and former Liberal Party director Tony Nutt had told her that she was being stood down at the direction of the PM. “You have to understand, it is the prime minister so they needed to find something,” he reportedly said.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/rachel-withers/2021/13/2021/1618292077/holgate-strikes-back

  30. More:

    What’s more, the contrast between how Holgate was treated (over gift watches) and how Porter was treated (over rape allegations) could not be starker, and Holgate knows it. “I don’t know why the prime minister did what he did,” Holgate said today, laying the blame for her unfair situation squarely at Morrison’s feet. “But I was unlawfully stood down, I believe, because he instructed it to do so.”

    “I’ve only ever asked for respect,” she added, “and I have never been allowed it.” Morrison, a disrespectful man who regularly snarls and smirks and scorns, picked the wrong victim this time. Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned on the floor of parliament.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/rachel-withers/2021/13/2021/1618292077/holgate-strikes-back

  32. Albanese is going backwards too. Probably a pox on both houses for politicizing Covid. Covid is likely #1 concern in the community at present not political grandstanding.

  34. “Scepticsays:
    Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 5:50 pm
    Albo would be paying the justifiable price for keeping such a low profile he’s invisible”
    Albo is invincible because he said that Holgate resignation is justifiable when PM asked for her resignation 5 months ago

  35. ‘davidwh says:
    Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 6:12 pm

    Anyway had first dose of A-Z today and still here for now. ‘

    I’d call that a good start.

  36. Usual thing at senate committees and estimates is the coalition members usually run interference and push the government line.
    Not much of that at Australia Post inquiry today.
    Nats McKenzie and Canavan sticking up for small licence holders. Henderson tried a few lines of attack and failed and Van was like a senator you’ve never heard of. Nothing much to say.
    I’m not sure Holgate’s record in business makes her someone I’d have a lot of admiration for but she is a formidable opponent. Go to a meeting with her without mastering your brief at your peril.

  38. I do wish Essential would just start releasing their voting intention results already. They’re obviously still polling for it.

  42. I don’t subscribe to the rather too confident “Albo is doing him slowly.”

    Me neither. I remember reading that one (and the good old “never interrupt an opponent”) about Shorten on many an occasion between 2013 and 2019, and we all know what happened there.

    While I’ve been increasingly encouraged by Albo’s performance as of late, the idea that he’s got Morrison on the ropes right about now seems like seriously wishful thinking.

  44. “ GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes
    ·
    6m
    #Essential Poll Albanese (ALP voters): Approve 55 (-5) Disapprove 22 (+6) #auspol”

    I think Albo has been doing a much better job since January. But the actions of people like Fitzgibbon undermine him and imply weakness if unpunished.

    DavidWH

    The adverse reactions to AZ were mostly to younger adults (only 1 over 55) and mostly female. Risk for over 50s, especially males, is very low. Literally a worse chance dying in a crash on the way to the clinic.

  45. Socrates @ #844 Tuesday, April 13th, 2021 – 6:29 pm

    “ GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes
    ·
    6m
    #Essential Poll Albanese (ALP voters): Approve 55 (-5) Disapprove 22 (+6) #auspol”

    I think Albo has been doing a much better job since January. But the actions of people like Fitzgibbon undermine him and imply weakness if unpunished.

    Another interpretation might be that Labor’s fortunes have improved since Fitzgibbon forced Labor to be more interested in issues facing voters than mouthing the meaningless platitudes of the woke brigade.

  47. I think it’s pretty unimportant in the scheme of things what Albanese’s numbers are. It’s more important what Morrison’s numbers are. Government’s lose office generally, Opposition generally don’t win from there. Though it needs to be said that an unpopular Opposition Leader, well-defined by the government, as they did with Shorten, can definitely lose it for an Opposition.

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