Morgan COVID-19 poll, Laming latest and more

Evidence vaccine rollout issues are taking their toll on the Prime Minister’s popularity.

I had a vague hope that last fortnight’s sooner-than-expected Newspoll portended a return to a (usually) fortnightly rather than three-weekly schedule, but apparently not. Essential Research should be along this evening though, hopefully including its monthly leadership ratings. Then there’s this:

• Roy Morgan has published results of an SMS poll conducted on Friday and Saturday from a sample of 1423, which asked if respondents were still up for the COVID-19 vaccine in light of recent developments (only 17% were not, increasing to 24% when those who would only settle for Pfizer were included) and, most interestingly, if they approved of Scott Morrison’s handling of “all COVID-19 related issues”. In the absence of a non-response option, the latter question recorded 49% approval and 51% disapproval. I’m aware of two past polls that specifically asked about leaders’ rather than governments’ handling of COVID-19, both from Newspoll – one in April and one in July – from which the weakest result was 61% approval and 36% disapproval for Daniel Andrews in the July poll.

Sarah Elks of The Australian reports that Andrew Laming has declined Scott Morrison’s invitation to sit out the preselection for his Brisbane seat of Bowman, and is “collecting evidence in an effort to disprove a series of allegations against him”. The report notes he has an incentive in a $105,600 reward available to to MPs who “retire involuntarily”, which would not be granted if he went gracefully. Laming will also need to pass muster with the Liberal National Party’s “candidate suitability panel” if his nomination is to proceed to the stage where local party members have a say.

• In a piece for The Conversation, Benjamin Reilly of the University of Western Australia evaluates the likely impact of optional preferential voting, as mooted by the Coalition members of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. The conclusion is that Labor would only have won about half of the 36 seats it won on preferences at the 2013, 2016 and 2019 elections after trailing on the primary vote, and that few if any members of the House of Representatives front bench would have got their foot in the door.

• I have a guide up for the Upper Hunter state by-election in New South Wales on May 22, though it’s still at a preliminary stage since most of the candidates haven’t been announced, together with a Tasmanian state election guide that has lately been supplemented with a page for the Legislative Council contests.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,028 comments on “Morgan COVID-19 poll, Laming latest and more”

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  1. NSW police top brass blocked a request by sex crimes detectives to travel to Adelaide to interview the woman who alleged she was raped by former Attorney-General Christian Porter during the COVID-19 border closures.

    The new revelations are contained in a 69-page dossier of documents produced after a demand from NSW Parliament that also reveal for the first time that police emailed the woman for a welfare check and about making a statement following multiple delays – just two days before she died by suicide.

    Mr Porter rejects the 1988 rape allegation as completely false and has commenced defamation action against the ABC over the original report of the matter.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/top-brass-blocked-trip-in-christian-porter-investigation/news-story/921b877275be69c3ae0745f4a9d77452

  2. And tonight I will be listening to one Mr William Bowe, and Karen Luscombe, and their analysis of the WA state election for the WA Fabians. 🙂

    Become a Fabian today and you can too!

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This will make up for yesterday’s pathetically small curation.

    Sixty Minutes and Nine Media have combined to really open up the problems for Ben Roberts-Smith and others. Spud will have his hands full now.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/buried-evidence-and-threats-how-ben-roberts-smith-tried-to-cover-up-his-alleged-crimes-20210408-p57hlr.html
    Roberts-Smith has been caught on secretly recorded audio lauding his media mogul boss, Kerry Stokes, for financing his fight to “destroy” those in politics, the media and the SAS who have accused him of war crimes.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-m-going-to-do-everything-i-can-to-f-ing-destroy-them-secret-ben-roberts-smith-audio-revealed-20210409-p57hv9.html
    New National Disability Insurance Scheme Minister Linda Reynolds says she has “no intention of excluding Australians from the scheme” on the basis of their diagnosis, appearing to dump radical reforms drafted under the previous minister Stuart Robert, reports Andrew Taylor.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/no-intention-reynolds-dumps-draft-proposals-to-cut-diagnosis-based-ndis-funding-20210409-p57hpo.html
    Australia’s vaccination rollout strategy has been an epic fail. Now Scott Morrison is trying to gaslight us, explodes Kevin Rudd who describes Morrison’s grandstanding as “all bullshit”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/12/australias-vaccination-rollout-strategy-has-been-an-epic-fail-now-scott-morrison-is-trying-to-gaslight-us
    As Australia’s vaccination bungle becomes clear, Morrison’s political pain is only just beginning, writes Mark Kenny.
    https://theconversation.com/as-australias-vaccination-bungle-becomes-clear-morrisons-political-pain-is-only-just-beginning-158704
    Alexandra Smith tells us that the NSW government feared as many as 25,000 people could have died from COVID-19 in the state, with worst-case scenario figures revealing what could have unfolded without drastic action.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-secret-covid-death-toll-figure-which-had-nsw-terrified-20210411-p57i9p.html
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has abandoned setting targets for Australia’s vaccine rollout and conceded for the first time that not all Australians will get their first dose of a coronavirus jab by the end of the year, even though the government has doubled its order of Pfizer’s vaccine, report Anthony Galloway and Nick Bonyhady.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/vaccine-targets-dumped-morrison-concedes-all-australians-may-not-be-vaccinated-by-end-of-the-year-20210411-p57i9m.html
    “It appears a seamless vaccine rollout is not 2b”, headlines this contribution from Jenna Price.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7204297/it-appears-a-seamless-vaccine-rollout-is-not-2b/?cs=14258
    The editorial in The Canberra Times is concerned about the economic impact of the slow vaccine rollout.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7202562/slower-vaccines-spells-economic-fears/?cs=14258
    Jennifer Duke reports that the McKell Institute has warned that failing to speed up Australia’s vaccination rollout will increase the risk of new COVID-19 outbreaks and snap lockdowns that researchers warn could cost the economy more than $1 billion. (As I write this, I see on ABC24 the mass vaccinations occurring in the US where 4.3 million shots were given just yesterday!)
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/delays-will-increase-the-chance-of-lockdowns-mckell-institute-warns-of-1-4b-hit-to-economy-20210409-p57htz.html
    Stemming the social media ‘infodemic’ crucial in vaccine rollout, argues business law and taxation expert, Andrew Moshirnia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/stemming-the-social-media-infodemic-crucial-in-vaccine-rollout-20210411-p57i7n.html
    Greg Jericho looks at how the linkage between job vacancies and unemployment rate has been fractured by the pandemic.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2021/apr/11/yes-job-vacancies-are-high-but-laziness-is-not-the-reason-they-arent-being-filled
    Prominent employment lawyer Josh Bornstein has ruled himself out of an expected run for Parliament after a series of negative reports appeared in the media.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/josh-bornstein-abandons-run-for-kim-carr-s-safe-labor-spot-in-senate-20210411-p57ian.html
    Matt O’Sullivan writes that the discovery of corrosion in the hulls of the NSW government’s new fleet of Emerald-class ferries has sparked concerns about the structural soundness of the vessels in the longer term. Another example of failure to differentiate between price and cost?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/corrosion-in-hulls-of-new-sydney-ferries-sparks-concerns-about-long-term-cost-20210331-p57fll.html
    Could the Murdochs be preparing to make right-wing US cable television station Fox News and its shows such as Tucker Carlson Tonight and Hannity available more broadly to Australians via a streaming service? Paperwork filed with at least one government agency suggests so, writes Zoe Samios.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/are-the-murdochs-preparing-to-unleash-fox-news-on-australia-20210410-p57i3t.html
    The list of government MPs who have escaped serious consequences for bad behaviour is long and at odds with the prevailing mood, writes Jacqui Maley who bemoans MPs seemingly floating high above a rising tide of accountability.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mps-a-protected-species-floating-high-above-a-rising-tide-of-accountability-20210409-p57hx2.html
    Federalism is about the feds and the states. For a century, each played their assigned roles. Canberra had power and money and beat the states ragged; the states wept piteously and tried to betray each other. COVID has changed this game, like Kerry Packer changed cricket, opines Greg Craven.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/for-first-time-since-wwi-the-states-are-the-boss/news-story/1c1fb05090ffb3fb719065312bd83622
    The vaccine rollout debacle is further evidence that the federal Department of Health should not be in charge of reforming the aged care sector, as recommended by one of the Aged Care Royal Commissioners. Dr Sarah Russell and Elizabeth Minter report on the failure of neo-liberalism and its privatisation of government services.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/end-neo-liberal-experiment-gutting-of-bureaucracy-led-to-vaccine-and-aged-care-failures/
    Nick Bonyhady explains how Australian gig economy giants are resisting union efforts to make their workers “employees” — with rights to the minimum wage and injury compensation — but have offered other concessions as their British arms either opt to change workers’ status or face financial consequences.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gig-economy-firms-divided-over-workers-rights-20210411-p57i9f.html
    The past year has seen more experts moving into the group willing to admit the future is too unpredictable and complex to ever have a firm grasp on. But this doesn’t, and shouldn’t, stop the nation’s top minds from attempting to make sense of the economy and its trajectory, writes Jennifer Duke.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/in-an-uncertain-world-the-best-economists-know-they-don-t-know-the-future-20210406-p57guo.html
    According to Euan Black and Matthew Elmas, our economic recovery about to hit some major speed bumps.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/news-federal-budget/2021/04/12/deloitte-economic-recovery-speed-bumps/
    Thousands of jobs would be created in renewable energy projects this decade under a fast economic growth scenario with hydrogen playing a key role in fighting climate change, according to an Australian Energy Market Operator report on SA.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/hydrogen-and-renewables-to-power-up-jobs-in-sa-regions/news-story/43b64e4a9e09bf1c0f4a27cac4dea061
    The Grattan Institute explains why dipping into super won’t solve our housing affordability problem.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/property/2021/04/12/superannuation-house-deposit-grattan/
    Sarah Danckert writes that ASIC watchdog is poised to recommend that boards adequately respond to short-selling attacks amid a global push to develop consistent rules around the practise and weed out ambush tactics used against some listed companies.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/corporate-watchdog-asic-to-release-new-board-advice-on-short-selling-attacks-20210409-p57hvr.html
    The pill causes clots too, so why no outrage, asks Gabriella Fowler.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-pill-causes-clots-too-why-no-outrage-20210410-p57i3w.html
    Advice limiting the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine in younger Australians would likely be overturned if there was a significant coronavirus outbreak. Expert vaccine advisers to the federal government have told The Sunday Age and Sun-Herald that Australia’s near elimination of coronavirus was central to its decision to preference the Pfizer vaccine for those aged under 50.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/control-is-precarious-astrazeneca-advice-may-change-in-outbreaks-20210410-p57i2f.html
    Paul Karp tells us that New South Wales police passed up an offer by South Australian police to take a statement alleging sexual assault against Christian Porter – apparently without putting the option to the alleged victim – new documents reveal.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/11/nsw-police-passed-up-sa-offer-to-take-statement-alleging-sexual-assault-against-christian-porter
    Angela Macdonald-Smith report that, according to the Grattan Institute, Australia does not need coal-fired power stations to keep electricity bills down, but rushing to 100 per cent renewable energy will be “expensive” without major technology breakthroughs to provide back-up power during long winter wind droughts.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/no-need-for-coal-but-100pc-renewables-too-expensive-grattan-20210407-p57h9y
    David C Paul examines how what he describes as the “gas cabal” has got its own way with the government.
    https://theaimn.com/the-gas-cabal-exposed/
    On the eve of the Senate inquiry into the media, the full extent of News Ltd ownership has been revealed.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/04/12/news-corp-ownership-senate-inquiry/
    His death, aged 99, reminds us that for all of the Queen’s longevity her time as head of the family and the Commonwealth is coming to an end, says the SMH editorial which believes Philip’s death could be another step towards us becoming a republic.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/prince-philip-s-passing-could-be-another-step-towards-a-republic-20210411-p57i9y.html
    The rape problem isn’t going away, and men must speak up against the entitled minority that furthers it, writes A L Jones.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/real-men-need-to-speak-up-against-the-entitled-minority,14975
    In what could be an exciting development, the NSW transport department has signed up to use a quantum computer to “self-heal” issues in real time.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-a-microscopic-particle-could-improve-your-sydney-commute-20210411-p57i6m.html
    The universities of Sydney, New South Wales, Monash and Queensland have engaged former journalist and policy adviser John Garnaut to detect foreign interference risks.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-turnbull-security-adviser-auditing-academics-links-to-china-20210408-p57hoj.html
    US elections are entering a disturbing phase that bodes ill for what was once regarded as the world’s greatest democracy. This is occurring in response to Donald Trump’s claim that the presidential election was stolen from him through counting of illegal votes, explains George Williams who says that Australians can be grateful for the independence and integrity of our electoral systems and officials.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/trumps-legacy-a-wounded-democracy/news-story/005193f41a6d1baf888c29e49258e47f

    Cartoon Corner

    Peter Broelman

    Matt Golding

    Dvid Rowe

    Cathy Wilcox linked these


    Glen Le Lievre!

    Mark David.

    Mark Knight

    John Spooner

    From the US




  4. The thought occurred to me too:

    Craig Wallace
    @CraigWtweets

    What’s interesting is that Ben Roberts Smith kept the USBs – easily destroyed in an oven. These were the trophy pix of a psychopath #60Mins

  5. ‘Andrew Laming has declined Scott Morrison’s invitation to sit out the preselection for his Brisbane seat of Bowman, and is “collecting evidence in an effort to disprove a series of allegations against him”’

    So Laming is collecting evidence to disprove the allegations he apologised for?

    Is that misleading Parliament?

  6. Analysis of the impacts of OPV miss a key element. The labor party can react to events.

    OPV would likely benefit labor.

    Currently, labor waste many good candidates in a number of incredibly safe seats. They also waste a decent amount of money in those seats.

    Labor also waste good candidates and money in seats like Higgins and frydenburgs one. They will never go labor.

    The greens waste money in 130 seats that they won’t be able to claim for decades (and many of those they’ll never get).

    OPV will solve all of those problems. Labor will withdraw candidates in the 10 seats the greens mentioned as their targets a few weeks ago, and Sydney and grayndler when the incumbents retire. The greens will withdraw candidates in the other 139 seats.

    That’ll lead to the parties having more suitable candidates for each electorate, save a lot of money, reduce OPV preference leakage to zero, and generally benefit the same way the LNP does – labor can go hug coal to win the Hunter without compromising greens efforts in targeted liberal seats in inner Melbourne.

    The coalition has a lot more to lose from OPV than labor and the greens – One nation and shooters votes will exhaust.

  7. William,

    That piece in the Conversation is one of those interesting academic exercises that titillate but doesn’t really tell us anything.

    There is no evidence that were the voting system different that voters would vote the same order for candidates. Voters could and would vote differently.

  8. Voice endeavour says:
    Monday, April 12, 2021 at 7:43 am

    Analysis of the impacts of OPV miss a key element. The labor party can react to events.

    ……Labor will withdraw candidates in the 10 seats the greens mentioned as their targets a few weeks ago, and Sydney and grayndler when the incumbents retire. The greens will withdraw candidates in the other 139 seats.

    Bollocks. The Greens hope to destroy Labor. They also run in every seat in order to maximise their Senate vote. Labor will not and should not cede one square inch to the Greens.

    The best thing that could happen would be if Labor would place the Greens next to last on their HTVs and declare the Greens to be a Labor-hostile party. This would help restore the Labor plurality.

  9. Lyle Shelton to replace Fred Nile in NSW Parliament
    ______
    WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Replacing one idiot with an even bigger, and more dangerous one.

  10. ‘Currently, labor waste many good candidates in a number of incredibly safe seats. They also waste a decent amount of money in those seats.’

    As a wasted candidate (I might not have been a good one) I think this kind of thinking is anti democratic and (sorry) ignorant.

    I knew I wasn’t going to win, yet I spent a lot of time and money running. It had huge impacts on me indirectly – there are organisations which I know won’t employ me because of my politics, and I’m still subject to attacks in mainstream and social media.

    I ran because I thought it was important that people who wanted to vote Labor had that option. I wanted to make Labor MPs who might be part of a future government to be aware of our region. I also used running as a way of highlighting and discovering local issues.

    You can guarantee that any safe seats have issues which aren’t being tackled, because they’re either too hard or don’t suit the sitting MP. Underfunding is just one of them – and Andrew Laming isn’t the only MP in a safe seat to tell people to go away because their vote isn’t necessary.

    Often examining these issues allowed me to make policy recommendations to the party – and the fact that I’d built up a bit of credibility by running gave these more force.

    Last time I ran a local campaign, I told the campaign team that, as we couldn’t win, we should identify one thing we wanted to achieve. We decided that we wanted both majors to guarantee funding for a particular local project (the Fed Libs had promised it and then walked away, and Cathy McGowan put it in the too hard basket). We achieved that, and for us that was the win.

    I would have preferred to have won, of course, but I never felt too devastated when I lost because I knew that running had been a worthwhile process, with real benefits.

  11. ….as to the money wasted, the usual sum is that the amount raised by the AEC payment for first preference votes usually means the party breaks even in unwinnable electorates. They don’t invest much beyond funding the HTVs and some bunting, it’s local branches who raise most of the campaign money.

  12. “OPV will solve all of those problems. Labor will withdraw candidates in the 10 seats the greens mentioned as their targets a few weeks ago, and Sydney and grayndler when the incumbents retire. The greens will withdraw candidates in the other 139 seats.”

    I can’t see this happening hey. Can’t see Labor vacating electorates with their entitled and born-to-rule mentality. They believe they have some god-given right to the support of Greens voters.

    On the other hand, the Greens won’t stop running in seats all over the country, as doing so would likely have severe negative impact on their Senate vote. It’s not all just about winning lower house seats. Besides, even in ultra-conservative electorates there are still progressive lefties. If we start saying “oh that’s a conservative electorate, so only conservatives should run there” then the left aren’t going to be making inroads there any time soon.

    Labor supported by Greens preferences

    The reason the Coalition would benefit from an optional preferential voting system is simple.

    In recent decades, Labor’s primary vote has slumped in federal elections, but full preferential voting has kept its two-party preferred vote high.

    This is because Labor benefits from consistent preference flows from parties to the left, in particular the Greens. Approximately 80% of Greens preferences at federal elections go to the ALP at present.

    A significant proportion of this preference flow is the result of Greens voters being forced to choose between Labor and the Coalition at some point – even in their final preference markings on the ballot – so their votes are valid.

    https://theconversation.com/heres-why-the-coalition-favours-optional-preferential-voting-it-would-devastate-labor-155640

  13. “We AIM to make as MANY AS POSSIBLE vaccinations AVAILABLE as SOON AS POSSIBLE ” says the Chief Medical Officer on ABC24.
    There, we DO have a precise undertaking!

  14. Shelton will be up for re-election in March 2023 so he will only have a limited time to spread the word – plus the CDP vote is going to hell in a handbasket.

  15. Mary-Louise the eminent epidemiologist on ABC this morning said that it could take two years to complete vaxes for the whole of Australia and warned of “traffic chaos” if the government didn’t start some planning if they wanted to establish large vaccination centres. For a gently spoken lady, she was very firm.

  16. ‘I can’t see this happening hey. Can’t see Labor vacating electorates with their entitled and born-to-rule mentality. They believe they have some god-given right to the support of Greens voters.

    On the other hand, the Greens won’t stop running in seats all over the country, as doing so would likely have severe negative impact on their Senate vote. ‘

    Chortle. So when Labor does something, it’s because they’re Evil but when the Greens do exactly the same thing, it’s just sensible.

    Labor likes having people in the Senate, too.

  17. Lizzie

    Out of all the epidemiologists, Mary Louise is one that we should listen to intently. She is unassuming but very genuine.

  18. https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/national-bowel-cancer-screening-program

    National Bowel Cancer Screening Program
    The National Bowel Cancer Screening Program aims to reduce deaths from bowel cancer by detecting the early signs of the disease. Eligible Australians from 50 to 74 years of age are sent a free, simple test that is done at home. Find out how the program works and how to do the test.

    I never received the test and am glad that my GP studied a blood test that sent me for a colonoscopy. This test could extend your life.

  19. …anyway, a lot of anecdotal evidence – including from my own household but also based on voter feedback at the polling booths over a couple of decades – suggests that many voters who put Green as their first preference see themselves as Labor voters sending a message, and that they feel they can do this without hurting Labor.

    As someone noted above, changing the system would change voter behaviour.

    OPV is thus more likely to impact on the Greens than on Labor.

  20. “Last time I ran a local campaign, I told the campaign team that, as we couldn’t win, we should identify one thing we wanted to achieve.”

    Zak Kirkup recently made the same mistake. Nothing is impossible, as evidenced by Cathy McGowan’s successful campaign that you mentioned, among others. Having a defeatist mentality isn’t going to help. Think positive next time and you might be surprised by the results.

    “I ran because I thought it was important that people who wanted to vote Labor had that option.”

    Totally agree with this rationale though. The more options that people have to vote for the better (within reason of course – tablecloth ballots full of obscure micro-parties are no good).

  21. Trump Calls Mitch McConnell A “Dumb Son Of A B*tch” For Not Helping Him Potentially Avoid Prison

    According to a report from Politico, multiple donors attending a closed-door speech given by Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort Saturday night were dismayed and disgusted with the tenor of the speech as the president went off script and ranted about House Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) as a “dumb son-of-a-bitch.”

    According to the report, “A slew of well-heeled Republican National Committee donors descended on Palm Beach this weekend, excited to be schmoozed, eager for access to Donald Trump and other potential 2024 nominees, but mostly interested in hearing how far their dollars would go toward winning back the Congress and White House,” before adding, “Trump’s speech didn’t do any of that. ”

    https://www.rawstory.com/trump-rnc-speech-mcconnell/

    Rick Wilson@TheRickWilson

    When you decide to fuck a rattlesnake, don’t be shocked when it bites you.

  22. BK at 8:09 am
    Good to see the CMO’s diploma from the Sir Humphrey Appleby School of Administration being made use of.

  23. Theo

    I would never have said so in public.

    McGowan won, but as I pointed out, we actually achieved more than she did, despite not winning.

    I think gains for the local community – and I reckon the tally of these we’ve worked for and gained by the approach I’ve indicated far outweigh anything McGowan has achieved – are more important than a seat in Parliament with nothing to show for it but a healthier personal bank balance.

  24. @Wendy_Bacon
    ·
    29m
    #FranKelly asks #Australia’s Chief Medical Officer how many doses of #Pfizer vaccine are in the country at the moment. He can’t or won’t answer the Q. Why?
    @RNBreakfast
    #auspol

  25. Yikes, Paul Kelly, Chief Medical Officer, just said on radio that disabled people living in group homes in 1a won’t be fully vaccinated until the middle of the year. This is appalling.

  26. From the Peoples Republic of Danistan:

    Schools and sporting groups in Victoria will be told to avoid terms like “mum”, “dad”, “boyfriend” and “girlfriend” as part of a push to curb the dropout and suicide rates of LGBTQI+ young people.

    The North Western Melbourne Primary Health Network has set up the #SpeakingUpSpeaksVolumes campaign which will bring in unisex bathrooms, non-gendered playing teams and rainbow flags in a bid to be more inclusive.

    The Herald Sunreports that the material suggests avoiding “gendered terms” such as husband and girlfriend instead of the non-gendered partner, and mum and dad rather than parent. Students are also encouraged to ask others which pronouns they use.

  27. …anyway, the three best results achieved by Labor in Indi since WWII have my name next to them, and the fourth best was run by me, so there was some change. McGowan wouldn’t have run if we hadn’t shown that it could be done.

    People don’t understand that Mirabella’s nastiness wasn’t really generally known (think voters who think Shorten is still Oppo…) I had an Age reporter ring me for an interview just before Mirabella’s Q&A appearance. She thought that (i) Mirabella was quite a lovely woman (based on having afternoon tea with her) and (ii) that the number of letters to the editor locally indicated she had a lot of support.

    The piece she was writing – in 2012 – was along the lines of ‘will she be the next female PM?’ rather than ‘she’s a nasty b*tch who is likely to lose her seat.”

    And that was from someone who was supposedly switched on politically.

  28. lizzie @ #38 Monday, April 12th, 2021 – 6:27 am

    Yikes, Paul Kelly, Chief Medical Officer, just said on radio that disabled people living in group homes in 1a won’t be fully vaccinated until the middle of the year. This is appalling.

    Where has that comment come from?

    And seeing as “the middle of the year” is 6 – 8 weeks away, why is that appalling over and above the vaccine program as a whole being thoroughly bungled by the govt?

  29. ‘Students are also encouraged to ask others which pronouns they use.’

    It’s a fraught field, and treating everyone the same way might be the best approach.

    Had a student whose sex I was uncertain about in a class a couple of years ago, so I decided to write their report in non- gendered terms.

    The next year he came out as transitioning.

  30. “…anyway, a lot of anecdotal evidence – including from my own household but also based on voter feedback at the polling booths over a couple of decades – suggests that many voters who put Green as their first preference see themselves as Labor voters sending a message, and that they feel they can do this without hurting Labor.”

    This voter sees himself as a Green, certainly not just a Labor voter lodging a protest vote. Used to vote for Labor when I was younger and more politically naive but have since seen the error of my ways. Perhaps in the first couple of years after switching it was a protest vote and Labor were still in with a chance but certainly not anymore. I could never support a party that teams up with the Coalition to leave people in poverty while giving tax cuts to the rich, nor could I support a party which teams up with the Liberals to abuse innocent asylum seekers, or one that does not take climate change seriously. Labor does not represent me or what I believe. A vote for Labor is a vote for the Coalition’s agenda.

    But yes, you are right that people can vote 1 Greens with the knowledge they can preference Labor ahead of the Coalition. Indeed, voting 1 Labor is a completely wasted vote if you are a progressive lefty. Use your preferences wisely and make them count.

  31. And if it is a true story it should be pointed out that it is a Primary Health Network a federal rather than a state agency.

    Expect Greg Hunt to fall on them like a ton (sorry tonne) of bricks

  32. Theo

    See the bit that says ‘many voters’. I’m obviously aware that there are voters who vote Green because they want the Greens elected.

    Anyway, the point (made by other posters here as well as me) is that changing the voting system changes the way people vote, so you can’t just take the numbers from one system and transfer them to another.

  33. zoomster @ #29 Monday, April 12th, 2021 – 8:15 am

    Doesn’t Queensland have OPV? It doesn’t seem to have handicapped Labor there.

    So does NSW. It does.

    Here’s an article by Antony Green explaining how it disadvantages candidates who come in second place (often Labor) from winning:

    Under the NSW system of optional preferential, voting the voter only needs to number one square.

    The political impact of NSW’s voting system shows up when the votes are counted.

    Ballot papers that quite literally run out of numbers during the distribution of preferences “exhaust” further preferences.

    They are then removed from the count.

    It means candidates leading on first preferences are advantaged and second and third-placed candidates are disadvantaged.

    Overall, it makes it harder for candidates to win from second place.

    For example, at the 2015 NSW election, Labor won three seats from second place on Green preferences — the first time in two decades that the NSW Labor Party had done this.

    Yet at federal election under full preferential voting, Labor has won two or three NSW seats at every election from second place on Green preferences.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-20/nsw-election-voting-explained-by-antony-green/10916802?nw=0

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