I had a vague hope that last fortnight’s sooner-than-expected Newspoll portended a return to a (usually) fortnightly rather than three-weekly schedule, but apparently not. Essential Research should be along this evening though, hopefully including its monthly leadership ratings. Then there’s this:
• Roy Morgan has published results of an SMS poll conducted on Friday and Saturday from a sample of 1423, which asked if respondents were still up for the COVID-19 vaccine in light of recent developments (only 17% were not, increasing to 24% when those who would only settle for Pfizer were included) and, most interestingly, if they approved of Scott Morrison’s handling of “all COVID-19 related issues”. In the absence of a non-response option, the latter question recorded 49% approval and 51% disapproval. I’m aware of two past polls that specifically asked about leaders’ rather than governments’ handling of COVID-19, both from Newspoll – one in April and one in July – from which the weakest result was 61% approval and 36% disapproval for Daniel Andrews in the July poll.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports that Andrew Laming has declined Scott Morrison’s invitation to sit out the preselection for his Brisbane seat of Bowman, and is “collecting evidence in an effort to disprove a series of allegations against him”. The report notes he has an incentive in a $105,600 reward available to to MPs who “retire involuntarily”, which would not be granted if he went gracefully. Laming will also need to pass muster with the Liberal National Party’s “candidate suitability panel” if his nomination is to proceed to the stage where local party members have a say.
• In a piece for The Conversation, Benjamin Reilly of the University of Western Australia evaluates the likely impact of optional preferential voting, as mooted by the Coalition members of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. The conclusion is that Labor would only have won about half of the 36 seats it won on preferences at the 2013, 2016 and 2019 elections after trailing on the primary vote, and that few if any members of the House of Representatives front bench would have got their foot in the door.
• I have a guide up for the Upper Hunter state by-election in New South Wales on May 22, though it’s still at a preliminary stage since most of the candidates haven’t been announced, together with a Tasmanian state election guide that has lately been supplemented with a page for the Legislative Council contests.
poroti@7:36 am
ABC: “PM abandons all targets for COVID-19 vaccine rollout”
We can read in another way. PM is implying “Take your best shot at me because this is what small government is about” .
The Liberals are ruthless when it comes to OPV (they know it how it works for them). They just tell everyone before they walk into the polling place, ‘Just Vote 1 for the Liberal Party’. Job done from their perspective.
And yes, Labor run in every seat in the country to also maximise their Senate vote, as well as to give everyone in every electorate the opportunity to voter Labor.
I will also add that Labor will never give the lazy Greens an easy option to obtaining more Lower House seats.
Queensland went back to full preferential voting a few years ago.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-21/compulsory-prefential-voting-returns-qld-parliament-passes-bill/7348172
Ross
Thanks for that.
C@tmomma @8:47 am
But isn’t it Bob Carr who benefitted modt from OPV? BTW, Didn’t Carr government introduced OPV in NSW or was it he ruthlessly used it?
Ven @ #56 Monday, April 12th, 2021 – 8:52 am
Yes but since then the Liberals have got their act together using OPV at election time.
BK@8:00 am
Unfortunately, That’s how it works ( i.e. replacing an idiot with a bigger and dangerous one)
Ven,
OPV also introduces a perverse incentive to not vote for a particular party if you don’t have to. Like Labor after the Obeid/Tripodi years.
OPV assists when you are on the way up, but crucifies you if you are on the way down.
When you’ve been down fir a decade, like NSW Labor, the high exhaust rate makes a comeback particularly difficult: this is one of the stories of both the 2015 and 2019 State Elections. This high exhaust rate in 2019 was still at 2015 levels, and this was enough to prevent Labor picking up most of the 8 seats still in play in the last week of the campaign – finishing up with a net gain of only 2, even though there was a significant swing against the Libs and Nats on Primaries (against all main established parties actually, but particularly against the coalition). This is in contrast with the 2015 Queensland election – Newman was so hated that folk were particularly motivated to put the LNP last, rather than simply exhausting their vote after a vote for an independent or minor party candidate.
If compulsory preferential voting was in place in NSW at the last state election, then I suspect that NSW Labor may have finished up with 40 seats (give or take) and the coalition would have lost another 5 seats (and additional 4 to Labor with Dubbo going to the independent who narrowly lost) leaving the lower house with 43 coalition, 40 Labor and 10 independents.
That Queensland is a Unicameral parliament also has to be factored in.
The exhaustion rate presumably will be critical in Upper Hunter
The Wran government introduced optional preferential voting to NSW in 1980 and entrenched it in the Constitution. It can only be repealed by referendum. Optional preferential voting was in in one of the Whitlam government bills blocked by the Senate.
Optional preferential voting was state and federal Labor Party policy state and federal until it was quietly dropped from the party’s platform in 1991 after full preferential voting helped Labor win the 1990 Federal election. Preferential voting now works overwhelmingly in favour of the Labor Party.
A consequence of optional preferential voting has been the end of three-cornered contests in NSW. The Liberals and Nationals have not nominated to compete against each other in a seat since 1999.
You could almost call OPV, ‘First Past the Post’.
Good Morning
Forget OPV.
What Labor should go for is the MMP system. Give progressives a voice in areas that just look conservative a voice as the current electoral system blocks them out.
We know this works and is fair. You only have to look at these systems around the world to know they take away the conservative bias of our current system. Labor won’t be the party just waiting for a government to fall over. Instead the LNP would face real fights on competence and policy.
Anyone that argues against MMP has never said why the Tasmanian system is so bad except for inconvenience to political parties and politicians.
Cat
Good call in my view.
UK Cartoons (leaving out those about Philip):
Brian Adcock: Ex-top tory tosspot #DavidCameron and minion Matt Handjob not fully enjoying the new freedoms. #lobbying #cameronscandal #ToryCorruption #COVID19 #lockdown:
Patrick Blower on the easing of England’s Covid restrictions.
Ben Jennings on the easing of England’s Covid restrictions:
Morten Morland on #BorisJohnson #KeirStarmer #Covid19:
Peter Schrank on #BorisJohnson #PubsReopening #lockdown #NorthernIrelandRiots #Brexit #BrexitReality #EndTheLockdown:
Brighty on #EasingLockdown #HerdImmunity:
Graeme Keyes on Northern Ireland unrest:
Christian Adams on #PubOpening #EasingLockdown:
Martyn Turner on Northern Ireland unrest:
@MrKRudd tweets
LIVE TODAY: The Senate Media Diversity Inquiry restarts at 9am with: — Former PM @TurnbullMalcolm
— Facebook VP @milner_simon
— @penn_state climatologist Michael Mann
— Former Murdoch editors @brucerguthrie & @PeterFray
#MurdochRoyalCommission
WATCH LIVE: bit.ly/3tbldJQ
C@tmomma@8:59sm
I agree that LNP would have used OPV ruthlessly irrespective of how Carr used it.
But when compared to Premiers after Carr and premiers between Wran and Carr, Carr and Wran were absolutely ruthless against opposition
They learnt from Robert Askin.
Anthony Green@9:05 am
Thank you for the info on OPV.
Annalena Baerbock: Germany’s First Green Chancellor?
Berlin, April 10th, 2021 (The Berlin Spectator) — Annalena Baerbock heads ‘Bündnis 90/Die Grünen’, the German Greens, with her colleague Robert Habeck. Among center-left and left wing parties in Germany, it is very fashionable to have a leadership consisting of a woman and a man. But when it comes to choosing one leader, or one candidate for Chancellor, it will have to be the woman. Anything else is politically incorrect in those circles. But it is not all about gender, even in the Green party.
Annalena Baerbock is holding her position at the right moment. While former and actual big tent parties are losing voters by the millions, the Greens now stand at about 23 percent, meaning they are stronger than all other parties, except for Angela Merkel’s conservative CDU with its Bavarian sister party CSU. Unless things change drastically until September 26th, 2021, which is when the next elections for the Berlin Bundestag are scheduled to take place, it will be hard or even impossible to govern without the Greens.
When the party was founded at a convention in Karlsruhe on January 13th, 1980, Annalena Baerbock, who is 40 years old, was not even conceived. She has been part of the Berlin Bundestag since 2013. In 2018, she became one of the chairpersons of her party in a team of two, with her colleague Robert Habeck. So, if Annalena Baerbock becomes Chancellor, would she take office as part of a team of two as well? No.
https://berlinspectator.com/2021/04/10/annalena-baerbock-germanys-first-green-chancellor-2/
ABC: “PM abandons all targets for COVID-19 vaccine rollout”
In related reporting:
Socrates: “PM should accept personal responsibility for job losses that will follow from business uncertainty and delays in lifting covid restrictions.”
Morrison’s refusal to outline any timetable means he has completely abandoned the national interest in his covid response. How do businesses know whether or not to employ new staff, if they don’t know when travel restrictions are likely to end? Having no target dates only benefits Morrison, because he can’t be seen to fail. But it harms the nation.
My understanding is that Lyle Shelton lives in Queensland. So, how does he qualify to be a Member of the LC in NSW?
Socrates
The political downside risks are worse than that.
All future lockdowns and related medical problems including deaths will be his responsibility. It’s not just the current restrictions on jobs.
The big political damage will come home to roost in May as international travel starts to resume.
There is money in those international students and tourism that are going to be making a lot of noise.
AE@9:01am
OPV may have affected the total number of seats Labor won. But IMO, it was due to Chris Minns and LOP comments on Asians that were ruthlessly exploited by LNP that won the election for LNP in 2029.
Victoria @ #31 Monday, April 12th, 2021 – 7:46 am
The G has a good article on this today. Shoebridge is asking some good quesitons and seems to be getting some answers that beg more questions.
It seems from recent answers that the decision to not send NSW police to SA to take the womans statement (because of Covid) came from high up. The head of the unit in charge of investigating such complaints had approved the trip.
Still, we dont exactly know why the womans request for the statement to be taken by skype was changed. And we dont know why, after the NSW police were not allowed to travel to SA, they didnt revert to the skype option or allow SA police to do it.
There needs to be a long hard look at how sexual assault allegations allegations against high profile and especially political people are handled. NSW police can not allow for there to even be a perception that such allegations are swept under the carpet. And before anyone jumps on me – yes, it cant be easy for police to balance concerns for the victim and the pursuit of justice. But this case is looking more and more like there were other considerations coming into that equation.
Shoebridge is demonstrating how to be an effective Opposition. (see, I can provide credit to the Greens where it is due)
The actions by a certain Police Force are starting to smell like week old fish.
GG@9:23 am
He will move to NSW. Barnaby was QLD Senator before he moved to NSW to win seat in lower house.
With respect to the vaccination effort – expanding to use GPs and Pharmacies introduces extra risk. We saw what happened with incidents early on in aged care. The two key issues are the following:
1. Risk to safety as a result of being unfamiliar with multi-dose vials. They are not common in Australia
2. Risk of wastage due to the need for special low-dead space syringes
Guytaur
Agreed. That breakout risk is worse. Though the job losses, with jobkeeper finished, are a certainty.
On the other disturbing story of the day, while some may say that with no police statement there is no crime to investigate over the AG rape allegations, the circumstances as to why there was no statement look worse and worse. First the NSW police couldn’t take it. Then they couldn’t travel to take it. Then they wouldn’t let SA police take it. The message they sent to the alleged victim was pretty clear: go away.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/11/nsw-police-passed-up-sa-offer-to-take-statement-alleging-sexual-assault-against-christian-porter
Here we go again…
Canada ski resort linked to largest outbreak of P1 Covid variant outside Brazil
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/11/canada-ski-resort-p1-covid-variant-whistler
@EmilyGale tweets
If you’re just waking up, Australia: Andrew Laming thinks he’s in with a shot, vastly unpopular Lyle Shelton nabbed a seat via Fred Nile, NSW police top brass prevented an interview with the woman who alleged Porter raped her, & there’s no longer a target for vaccinating us.
Griff@9:31 am
Don’t be so fast to give credit to Shoebridge. Hindu council of Australia alleges he is Hinduphobic.
https://www.opindia.com/2021/03/hindu-council-of-australia-slams-senator-for-calling-rss-vhp-neo-nazis/amp/
Socrates
The two days spanning NSW Police advising the lady they would not be going to SA to take her statement, her decision to withdraw from the case and her suicide should prove to be somewhat pivotal to the Coroner’s inquest.
Mars Helicopter Flight Delayed to No Earlier than April 14
https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/status/291/mars-helicopter-flight-delayed-to-no-earlier-than-april-14/
I credit most of the economic growth around here on rich peeps not spending money there this year.
Annalena Baerbock would be a splendid Chancellor.
SFF has announced its candidate for Upper Hunter.
The article doesn’t mention any connection to shooting, fishing or farming. I’m wondering if SFF is now becoming a broader based “Anti-Nationals” party attracting people who don’t like what the Nationals have become.
My nephew got COVID in Whistler last month (he lives in Toronto) ….mmm
Malcolm Turnbull is appearing in front of a Senate inquiry into media concentration. He is a good witness, able to thinks and speak clearly and constructively on complex matters. I just cannot imagine Morrison doing such a thing.
BK
I agree. I hope these issues might also get some comment at Christian Porter’s defamation trial too.
I find it hard to be sympathetic to NSW police at this point, despite some posters here defending them in the past. It is not any one decision so much as the overall pattern of conduct that looks questionable. I left out in my previous post the fact that they also declined to take a skype call from the alleged rape victim as well.
So NSW police successively decided not to take a statement from the alleged victim while she was in Sydney, then not to travel to SA to take a statement, then not to take a statement via skype, then not to let SA police take a statement. A reasonable person might form the view somebody in NSW police did not want to take a statement from the alleged victim. Obvious questions, given the sexual crimes squad wanted to travel to take the statement: who didn’t want to, and why?
So further to your comment BK, I think its the whole three months that need review, not just the last two days.
SFF are a curious mob. The Ricky Muirs of this world can be quite sympathetic to many ALP/left core values. Even environmental ones. And they like to kick against the pricks of this world – certain powerful forces in the Nationals and their benefactors should watchout.
Has there ever been political hatred of each other as Abbott and Turnbull
Citizen@9:53 am
Why can’t Labor recruit a candidate like SFF candidate? The candidate is a woman, nurse with business credentials and appears to be anti-LNP.
Turnbull has been terrific at the Senate Committee!
Socrates @ #90 Monday, April 12th, 2021 – 9:26 am
Imagine a principled police officer in the unit blowing a whistle on this.
Ven,
That is news to me with respect to Shoebridge. I cannot opine on the matter with my limited awareness of the situation and shall read about it. That said, the increasing sense of nationalism in India is part and parcel of increasing sense of nationalism globally, Australian included – we shall be living in interesting times post-pandemic.
Scott@10:01 am
How about that between Hawke and Keating after Kirribilli pact and Rudd and Gillard after Rudd lost PMship.
In both instances ALP is kept out of power for atleast a decade after ALP lost power. Whereas, LNP is still in power after Abbott and Turnbull are gone from political scene.
Theo Andelini
You have voted first one for a party who’s only contribution to political life in the last 20 years is to help keep the Liberals in power.
If that is what you want to do, so be it, but don’t pretend it has anything to do with supporting a party that is more progressive than the left in the Labor party.
It is a pointless protects vote with real consequences.
Socrates @ #80 Monday, April 12th, 2021 – 9:36 am
It’s not so much about the Rule of Law but abuse of the law by those in the sacred position of administering it.
Ven @ #97 Monday, April 12th, 2021 – 10:07 am
Because the Murdoch media have carriage of the absolution process.