Morgan COVID-19 poll, Laming latest and more

Evidence vaccine rollout issues are taking their toll on the Prime Minister’s popularity.

I had a vague hope that last fortnight’s sooner-than-expected Newspoll portended a return to a (usually) fortnightly rather than three-weekly schedule, but apparently not. Essential Research should be along this evening though, hopefully including its monthly leadership ratings. Then there’s this:

• Roy Morgan has published results of an SMS poll conducted on Friday and Saturday from a sample of 1423, which asked if respondents were still up for the COVID-19 vaccine in light of recent developments (only 17% were not, increasing to 24% when those who would only settle for Pfizer were included) and, most interestingly, if they approved of Scott Morrison’s handling of “all COVID-19 related issues”. In the absence of a non-response option, the latter question recorded 49% approval and 51% disapproval. I’m aware of two past polls that specifically asked about leaders’ rather than governments’ handling of COVID-19, both from Newspoll – one in April and one in July – from which the weakest result was 61% approval and 36% disapproval for Daniel Andrews in the July poll.

Sarah Elks of The Australian reports that Andrew Laming has declined Scott Morrison’s invitation to sit out the preselection for his Brisbane seat of Bowman, and is “collecting evidence in an effort to disprove a series of allegations against him”. The report notes he has an incentive in a $105,600 reward available to to MPs who “retire involuntarily”, which would not be granted if he went gracefully. Laming will also need to pass muster with the Liberal National Party’s “candidate suitability panel” if his nomination is to proceed to the stage where local party members have a say.

• In a piece for The Conversation, Benjamin Reilly of the University of Western Australia evaluates the likely impact of optional preferential voting, as mooted by the Coalition members of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. The conclusion is that Labor would only have won about half of the 36 seats it won on preferences at the 2013, 2016 and 2019 elections after trailing on the primary vote, and that few if any members of the House of Representatives front bench would have got their foot in the door.

• I have a guide up for the Upper Hunter state by-election in New South Wales on May 22, though it’s still at a preliminary stage since most of the candidates haven’t been announced, together with a Tasmanian state election guide that has lately been supplemented with a page for the Legislative Council contests.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,028 comments on “Morgan COVID-19 poll, Laming latest and more”

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  1. Oakeshott Country @ #897 Tuesday, April 13th, 2021 – 7:53 pm

    I once “accidentally” had a meal with an American who had been an exec for an Australian bank.
    It was his opinion that Australians were paying peanuts and getting monkeys in executive roles. This was severely affecting the quality of commerce in this country.
    In other news of the several million dodgy overseas transactions that he had governance over only 11,000 amounted to a hill of beans.
    After the meal I googled him. He is one of the very few Australian execs who had to give back his bonus before he went on gardening leave.

    I may have a chip on my shoulder but I have difficulty having sympathy for any corporate execs.

    I don’t have any chip on my shoulder. But, I despise Liberal shills.

  2. The watches are now irrelevant. The focus should be on a bullying PM and his treatment of a female CEO who stood in the way of privatisation plans for auspost compared with his tolerance for males whose votes keep him in his position.

  3. ScottyTheBully wanted to eliminate 190 regional and rural post offices. Holgate fought this.

    The rest, as they say, is trending on social media.

  4. Graeme Grahamsays:
    Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 7:45 pm
    Having an upper-class Pommy bird, on a million dollar salary, crying poor me and blaming the Prime Minister plays out well in the ‘burbs for the Libs.
    If she were a tattooed, toothless, fatherless daughter of an Italian cruise ship entertainer with a lisp from west Sydney – maybe not.
    —————————–
    And I thought I was a working class bigot. But then your description of your working calls character paints you as a non discriminating bigot.
    What the silvertails who got the watches did was save a whole lot if working class jobs. What Holgate is doing is sinking a very hard slipper into Morrison

  5. Graeme Grahamsays:
    Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 7:45 pm
    Having an upper-class Pommy bird, on a million dollar salary, crying poor me and blaming the Prime Minister plays out well in the ‘burbs for the Libs.
    If she were a tattooed, toothless, fatherless daughter of an Italian cruise ship entertainer with a lisp from west Sydney – maybe not.
    —————————–
    And I thought I was a working class bigot. But then your description of your working calls character paints you as a non discriminating bigot.
    What the silvertails who got the watches did was save a whole lot if working class jobs. What Holgate is doing is sinking a very hard slipper into Morrison

  6. The sobbing self-entitlement of the upper-class English type of women works well as a vote-grabber in Mosman and Potts Point- and other safe Liberal Party areas.
    Not so well among the more discerning women of Sefton, Blacktown, Minto and Penriff.
    You guessed it, in Labor Party seats Holgate can cry a river. It will help Labor nil. Zilch.

  7. sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 7:59 pm
    Worth saying twice, P Stanton
    ————————–
    The net is slow and I am impatient after the second whisky. Sorry about that. I will try not to hit the enter key for the second time so quickly.

  8. sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 7:59 pm
    Worth saying twice, P Stanton
    ————————–
    The net is slow and I am impatient after the second whisky. Sorry about that. I will try not to hit the enter key for the second time so quickly.

  9. There’s a very simple questionnaire that can reveal an enterprise is slated for privatisation:

    1. Is it in public ownership?
    2. Is the Coalition in power?

    If yes to both, it will be sold to Coalition mates for a song. Prices soar and service levels crash soon thereafter.

  10. GG

    The Liberals have made it very clear that they don’t value professional women.

    Morrison won by focusing on a very small demographic – men who might have voted Labor.

    It’s worth Labor’s while pursuing the same strategy – identifying a group which doesn’t have a political home and giving it one.

    To win, a party doesn’t need to play to its base. It needs to persuade voters who don’t ‘see’ themselves as voters for that party to vote for them.

  11. Graeme Graham @ #911 Tuesday, April 13th, 2021 – 8:01 pm

    The sobbing self-entitlement of the upper-class English type of women works well as a vote-grabber in Mosman and Potts Point- and other safe Liberal Party areas.
    Not so well among the more discerning women of Sefton, Blacktown, Minto and Penriff.
    You guessed it, in Labor Party seats Holgate can cry a river. It will help Labor nil. Zilch.

    Sexist, misogynist and a total dickhead.

    You’ve scored the trifecta tonight.

  12. Graeme Graham, I think you have just provided a definition of ‘hubris’. The OED entry is already populated, but perhaps you can use it in the glossary of the Coalition strategic review following the next election? 🙂

  13. But Albo also wanted her gone
    We now have the argument that she was the working class hero who directed the four executives to save mum and pop post offices (they actually organised agreements with the big 4 banks). For doing their jobs. (No more, no less) as well as getting their $500,ooo plus she felt they also needed a Cartier.
    Stinks
    No wonder Albo was upset

  14. Graeme Grahamsays:
    Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 8:01 pm
    The sobbing self-entitlement of the upper-class English type of women works well as a vote-grabber in Mosman and Potts Point- and other safe Liberal Party areas.
    Not so well among the more discerning women of Sefton, Blacktown, Minto and Penriff.
    You guessed it, in Labor Party seats Holgate can cry a river. It will help Labor nil. Zilch.
    —————————————-
    Many working class women and women in general can relate to the bullying and power dynamics behind this story.

  15. I wonder how those people of Western Sydney feel about Scomo and gang trying to privatise off Aus post, and forcing hundreds of post offices to close.
    I suspect they wouldn’t like that too much if they were actually informed of that instead of the fake sop outrage over some watches

  16. Good evening Diogenes @7:59.

    My understanding is that the clotting complication occurs in about 1/200000 cases (of a single jab), with a mortality rate of about 25% —> about 1/800000 risk of death from a single jab.

  17. OC, Holgate is not blaming Albo..

    “Maybe if the Prime Minister’s watching, he could give me a call and I’d love an apology. But he could help me resolve my contract. What I do going forward, I will contemplate now that we have closed the door of my submission with the inquiry.” – Christine Holgate #abc730

  18. GG
    Are you going to provide an argument or just throw around insults?
    Not a good idea for PBs leading defender of the paedophile conspiracy

  19. I suppose Morrison is at the usual place he goes to when when he can’t get vaccinations out, the bushfires out, or Holgate out?

    Hawaii?

  20. zoomster @ #918 Tuesday, April 13th, 2021 – 8:08 pm

    GG

    The Liberals have made it very clear that they don’t value professional women.

    Morrison won by focusing on a very small demographic – men who might have voted Labor.

    It’s worth Labor’s while pursuing the same strategy – identifying a group which doesn’t have a political home and giving it one.

    To win, a party doesn’t need to play to its base. It needs to persuade voters who don’t ‘see’ themselves as voters for that party to vote for them.

    Yeah. But keep your base on side as well.

    New adherents are rather flighty in my observation.

    My experience is that smoking taxes, increased speeding fines and restrictions on smoking in public places has hurt Labor.

  21. Peter McKenna (thrice)

    $20k for people who already have very high incomes and obscene bonuses are of little meaning. An engraved expensive watch has much more meaning.
    I am not defending the bludgers but can understand the intent.

    ____________________________

    I agree. If she had given them a $50k bonus each, we would have thought nothing of it. It may be the optics, but in the world of senior executives these things have meaning. Like Scotty’s ‘I stopped these’ boats. Or any other award, whether of material value or not.

    Yeah, Albo and Kitching got on the bandwagon, but I’m sure they thought that Botch Morrison would dissemble as usual, like he does for all his mates. They didn’t realise that this was a set-up (and of course it was).

    The funny thing is that it has made a lot of enemies that the Government does not want – especially Pauline Hanson and two disgruntled Nationals backbench senators. They know the importance of these country post office agencies – even if city-centric Liberals with mates to sell off lucrative parcel delivery services do not.

  22. Sprocket
    I guess that shows how irrelevant Albo is.

    I have given some thought to you calling me a “flanno” a few days ago.
    My understanding is that you are not of the working class but have sucked at the teat of Labor for much of your working life.
    Do you think that part of NSW Labor’s problem might be that members of the inner party are middle class, aussie rules watching wankers who have nothing but disdain for the people whose votes they need to keep them in a job?

  23. Just suppose you got $80 million for water that just suppose, when they went out to look for it, they couldn’t find it because, just suppose again, it wasn’t there in the first place and even if, just suppose, it WAS there, it was not worth $80 million.
    None of the above happened, as we all know. But just suppose.

    Who would cream what for what out of the plan to flog off AP to some spiv mates?

  24. When the blokes and sheilas in high-vis in the ‘burbs first heard on 10 News that AusPost’s boss had been harshly dealt with they thought, “I know that feeling”.
    Then came the upper-crust Pommy accent.
    And the blokes and sheilas did recant, and reckon that the PM got it right.
    An unexpected vote winner for our hero, slayer of Shortie.
    No Aussie would ever want the Poms to win the Ashes. It’s un-Australian.

  25. If you going to have someone resign in preference to being fired you make dam sure you have it in writing. Such a path certainly saves a lot of hassle for all.

    The chairman was a fool assuming he had the resignation he so desperately wanted no matter what was or wasn’t said. If you do not have it in writing she did not resign, no matter what the chairman says. He fired her, whatever her contract says for such action holds. It really is as simple as that.

    The rest is sound and fury.

  26. Many years ago an old journo told me over a beer that journalists were like a pack of dogs. If you were running out in front they would follow you but if you tripped they would tear you apart, It looks like Morrison has tripped.

  27. Graeme

    There’s still a sizeable portion of the voting population who either have British accents themselves or who have parents who do. And many of them are very working class.

    (I’ve been trying to get my private school educated husband to stop dropping his ‘g’s for decades…)

  28. boerwar says:
    Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 8:22 pm

    I don’t mind bonuses for delivery well above and well beyond.
    I don’t give a rat’s what form the bonus takes.

    Exactly, in winning that contract those four saved the rural post system, it is as simple as that.

  29. So, there is a secret plan to sell off AP.
    Holgate does some damage to the plan.
    So she has to go. (Those of us with longish memories will remember what happened to all the Coalition lads who got far more expensive watches for nothing much more than a bit of influence peddling which involved fucking over the national interest. Tee hee.)
    Morrison bullies Holgate mercilessly in Parliament.
    Robb stitches up a china trade deal and walks straight out of that into what? a $700,000 a year job which has to do with the china trade. Tee hee.
    The Coalition Boys Club does Holgate over. Morrison tries to sack her from the coward’s castle.
    She does not resign. She has not been sacked.
    The Coalition have a major fucking omnishambles on their hands.

    And the issue is Albo and Labor?

    Nice try, Coalition hacks.

  30. OC:

    Do you think that part of NSW Labor’s problem might be that members of the inner party are middle class, aussie rules watching wankers who have nothing but disdain for the people whose votes they need to keep them in a job?

    Do you really think there’s an inner party without an excess of wankers, anywhere?

    As many a Canberra desk can attest, it’s the wankers who come to the aid of the Party!

  31. I often take a dim view of the classic “don’t interrupt your opponent when they’re making a mistake / governments lose elections, oppositions don’t win them” excuse for not doing or saying much of anything about the latest Coalition scandal/stuff-up/sex offence, but this Holgate business is probably a case where Labor is best off keeping a bit of distance (not saying they should be totally silent or anything), especially when the media seems pretty happy to keep the fire burning.

  32. zoomster
    My private girl school educated girl has been trying to fix my H’s forever. I still can’t work out why H starts with A, but there you are.

  33. ‘E. G. Theodore says:
    Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 8:28 pm

    OC:

    Do you think that part of NSW Labor’s problem might be that members of the inner party are middle class, aussie rules watching wankers who have nothing but disdain for the people whose votes they need to keep them in a job?

    Do you really think there’s an inner party without an excess of wankers, anywhere?

    As many a Canberra desk can attest, it’s the wankers who come to the aid of the Party!’

    Classic.

  34. V
    Just another example of the Coalition’s form specialty: targeting women for pain except if they are called Jen or Jen’s Mum.

  35. And what about the AP board meeting that the company secretary and counsel (whose name escapes me) didn’t attend but wrote up the minutes as briefed by the chairman.
    Does that pass the governance test?

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