My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).
The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.
It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.
The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.
Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).
You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.
Rex Douglas @ #2458 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 10:20 am
Both can be true.
Rex Douglas @ #2454 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 10:15 am
He can be more colourful without going full technicolour.
The Coalition polling must be looking shaky. I think a photo montage of a trip to Bunnings is in order. Newspoll time?
N@10:20 am
“We have a limited and contingent democracy. The limits and the contingencies depend upon the mind of the Crown at any given point.”
I thought we are a liberal democracy but you are saying we are limited democracy. 🙂
Something about this pic that makes me uncomfortable …?
Jen would fit in well with the Amish crowd. Horrible picture.
The pic brings much cringe for me.
AE@9:53 am
“still can’t believe Australian Politics from June 2010 to date.”
If you can believe what happened in Australian politics from 2010 to 2020, it is very easy to believe what happened after June 2020.
C@tmomma@9:47 am
“The base for Scott Morrison: Old White Guys.”
I do not agree with that. It is 65% men and 49 % women as per recent poll.
This feels creepy. Something about the smug smiles.
I, For One, Welcome Our New Insect Overlords
Ven @ #3014 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 10:38 am
I think C@t meant “for Old White Guys”…
”Kerr could have counselled Fraser and Withers to the effect that their conduct relied on him doing something he felt bound not to do. But he chose to use the Crown’s position to favour them.”
Kerr could also have counselled Whitlam to the effect that he believed that the crisis was reaching such a critical point that he would soon consider himself obliged to dismiss the Prime Minister and commission a new Government, if that is what he truly believed was the right thing to do. The next step would have been up to Whitlam, which I believe would have been to call an election to be held before Christmas or maybe early 1976 (it was not due for 18 months) and campaign as Prime Minister. Of course, we’ll never know.
Instead, the Governor General in effect colluded with the Leader of the Opposition.
Of course it only worked because Labor was silly enough to pass supply in the hours after the Dismissal. Next time it happens, the dismissed Government won’t be so obliging.
lizzie @ #2509 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 10:39 am
May the Lord Zeus have mercy on us ❗
Rex Douglas @ #2504 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 10:30 am
Why? It’s just a fairly ordinary picture of Scott and Ofscott.
I, For One, Welcome Our New Insect Overlords
What about the Lizard People?
Ven @ #2471 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 10:38 am
Okay, so the majority of the Base.
lizzie @ #2472 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 10:39 am
It reminds me of Whistlers Mother.
No, Alpha Zero. This.
The couple in “American Gothic” look genuinely sad, they’re not smirking.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 10:27 am
“Rex Douglas @ #2458 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 10:20 am
Rossmcg @ #2482 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 10:12 am
Morrison most likely had heard something about a gender pay gap but he and his kind think it doesn’t matter.
He is of the school that thinks women should be grateful men allow them to work at all.
I think he is of the school that thinks males are superior to females in the workplace.
Both can be true.”
Except both lies made up by liars with no basis in truth and no evidence to support the defamatory claims. Shame you aren’t worth anything.
If I was in the room I’d ask Jen ‘are you ok ?’.
Buce
I think it’s more that the jobs that mainly women do (counselling, social work, child care) tend to pay worse than the industries that are male dominated (pilots, engineers etc).
I do have some sympathy for your argument.
C@t: did you mean this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lcUHQYhPTE
Cat – hitting the like button on that one. Yes that came to mind as well…
C@tmomma @ #3024 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 10:51 am
Close – but less pork on the (?1930’s) American gothics than on their Oz ideological offspring.
rhwombat,
Close – but less pork on the (?1930’s) American gothics than on their Oz ideological offspring.
Someone should re-do it for the Maccas generation.
Oh look, someone has and guess who he looks like? 😀
Sorry, it’s from The Guardian:
Ven says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 10:29 am
N@10:20 am
“We have a limited and contingent democracy. The limits and the contingencies depend upon the mind of the Crown at any given point.”
I thought we are a liberal democracy but you are saying we are limited democracy.
Perhaps that should be Democracy Ltd. …Specialists in Transactions, Announcements and Grants.
The woman in American Gothic is the farmers daughter, not his wife.
And the “farmer” in American Gothic is a dentist.
Creepy photos of Scotty and Wife are freaky, sociapath would make.
And dentists are one of the biggest supportive groups for the Coalition. 😀
Greg Jericho
”In truth, the economy remains in shock and in dire need of care.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2021/apr/11/yes-job-vacancies-are-high-but-laziness-is-not-the-reason-they-arent-being-filled
A Nat internal seat poll on Sky comes with an avalanche of caveats.
Plus a result which sees not much movement beyond the Nats taking votes off the elephant killers seems really unlikely.
Rex @ 10.30 a.m.
That photo looks like something out of The Handmaid’s Tale.
I can imagine that the economically minded rank and file Liberal partisans would be mightily concerned with Morrison’s chaotic vaccine supply mismanagement …?
pritu @ #2528 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 11:42 am
How so ? I’ve not seen the show.
steve777@10:43am
We blame Kerr for the removal of Whitlam. But the thing is Kerr only recommended for the dismissal. In the end it is the Queen, who dismissed an elected government because she is the Head of the state of Australia.
The Tories of this blog can protest in any way they like but the Queen did not dismiss/ wouldn’t dare to dismiss an elected government of UK. Can anybody guess the reason?
The Australian has a story up at the moment claiming the Government did not follow best practice protocols in procuring vaccine doses and questioning whether Morrison can survive this latest revelation.
Looks like we are being groomed by Rupert for a Dutton ascendancy.
Steve777@11:08am
“And the “farmer” in American Gothic is a dentist.” and he carries a pitch fork
In my post at 10:07 am, the person who bludgeoned a police officer with a flag pole during Kamu insurrection was a Police officer ay NYPD.
“That photo looks like something out of The Handmaid’s Tale.”
GG@11:49 am
How dare PM dares to throw mud at Murdoch press Journo.
For those Monarchists, birdwatchers and conservationists out there, another side of Philip.
I dug up a book review I wrote in 1962
———————————————————————————————————————–
Advance for PM’s Saturday, May 12
Ottawa, May 12 –Prince Philip who arrives today for his
seventh visit to Canada, has added writing and bird-watching to his
versatile range of activities.
In a book entitled ‘Birds from Britannia‘ (Longmans $4.95) the
Duke of Edinburgh reveals a breezy, informative narrative writing style
and close interest in birds.
It is the first book published under his authorship apart from
collections of his speeches and contains more than 80 photographs he took
–mostly of birds—on two of his world trips on the Royal Yacht
Britannia without Queen Elizabeth in 1956~57 and 1959.
The 44-page text is supplemented by detailed illustrations of most
of the birds the Duke photographed and general notes by ornithologist
Capt. G.S. Tuck, chairman of the Royal Naval Bird Watching Society.
Philip stresses that it is “a book about birds, and not about my
journeys.”
Although he writes with humour and interest about the
birds it is the descriptions and stories of the romantic islands
and remote outposts such as St. Helena, Tristan de Cunha, Christmas
Island and the Antarctic which provide the greatest enjoyment.
Describing the rough sailing around Cape Horn, he said he soon
got used to the long heaving swell, “but our only company were the
seabirds of the southern oceans.”
“Up to that moment, I don’t think I had ever deliberately taken a
photograph of a bird in my life. My ignorance of birds was sublime.
If pressed I would have admitted that apart from the more obvious
game birds, the others came in three categories: sparrows, seagulls and ducks.
“ It was that long passage across the southern Pacific ocean which
started me looking at birds, trying to recognize them and photograph them.”
Philip explained wittily that it was “not really possible for me to
take photographs of any kind, least of all birds during a series
of official functions even on a Pacific island. There are always plenty
of people about with cameras on these occasions, and there are times
when I feel full of sympathy for that pair of ospreys which nested in
Scotland recently.”
Starting as an amateur “one Sunday afternoon on a small island in
the middle of the main lagoon of Christmas Island, Philip soon
adopted what he called the “grandmother’s footsteps” approach to the
birds with his camera.
“Considering what I must have looked like on all-fours over an open
beach, I think it was most considerate of the birds to stick it as long
as they did.”
He photographed many kinds of seabirds which arced gracefully over
the stern of Britannia and such rarely-photographed birds as penguins,
as well as seals in the antarctic.
Of the albatross, the most famous
bird in the southern oceans, Philip said, “I suppose the nearest I ever
saw one was about eight feet away as it sailed slowly past, eyeing me
rather haughtily.’
In some places the Prince’s well-known outspokenness comes through,
particularly as he muses about the lack of any serious after-effects of
the bloody battles of World War II upon the natives of the Gilbert and
Ellis islands.
“What must they think of the administrators we send out to them,
who stop them fighting with bows and arrows and preach law and order
but whose own people seem to think it is perfectly all right to fight
each other and involve everyone else with the most destructive weapons
science can invent.”
“Christmas Island has a certain gloomy notoriety as the base
for testing British atomic weapons. There was much activity at
this interesting base when I was there, but no testing. The bird
life on the sandy little island in the lagoon continued apparently undisturbed.”
Philip, who recently was close to the Argentine coup which ousted
Arturo Frondizi and the British Guiana rioting noted that he had
“intended to visit Singapore, but while we were in Ceylon, riots
broke out in the Chinese schools in Singapore and I was advised to avoid the
place.”
But it’s the descriptions which stand out such as the Seychelles
Islands, “not flat coral reefs but great jutting peaks rising blue-
green out of a brilliant sparkling blue sea.” .
The most isolated and quaint settlement he visited was Tristan de
Cunha, abandoned last fall to the devastating rumblings of a volcano.
The main settlement on the island was called Edinburgh after prince
Alfred, Duke of Edinburgh, Queen Victoria’s second son who visited
Tristan in 1867, 90 years before Philip.
The book recounts a football match between the island team and the
Britannia crew “played on what can only be called a rugged pitch which
gave a distinct advantage to the side playing downhill so long as they’
were able to pull up before the cliff edge…the enthusiastic crowd
gave vent to such cries of “keep it on the island’ and ‘mind the
precipice.”
“Although we spent only a few days in the area I can quite
understand the fascination which the Antarctic has for many people,‘
he said.
“It may be bleak and stark.but it has a kind of lonely, empty,
beauty which exercises a very strong attraction. Graham Land in
particular with its steep mountains, ice—falls and the ever-changing
color of the snow must have some of the most glorious scenery in the
world. Given half a chance I would go back, if only to see the
penguins and seabirds again.” .
Advance for PMS Saturday May 12
Rex, the TV series is based on the book by the Canadian novelist Margaret Atwood. It is set in an imagined world in which the sexist order is a kind of extension of how things would be like if the pilgrim fathers’ ideas of the relations between the genders had been taken to their logical end. Women would be no more than handmaids or breeders. It is pretty much the how the fundamentalist christians operate today. The Morrisons are of that faith.
BREAKING: Alabamans vote against self-interest.
Asha @ 12.02.
Alabamans are not all that different from us. Witness the election of the LNP at that last election. Turkeys voting for Christmas.
66,764 new cases ……………………………. 740 new deaths …….. in the United States today
575,593 total deaths now
U.S. reports record 4.6 million COVID-19 vaccinations in one day. Number of Americans fully vaccinated against COVID-19 reaches 70 million, or 21%
India reports 152,565 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record
I agree with Bucephalus. We need to enforce gender-equal pay through enterprise bargaining. Individual agreements enables gender-disparate pay. Solidarity!
Ignore the other posters Bucephalus and welcome to the cause! 🙂
pritu @ #2537 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 12:01 pm
Sounds dreadful !