Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March

Big movement to Labor in the smaller states in the latest Newspoll breakdowns, but nothing of what might have been expected on gender.

My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).

The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.

It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.

The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.

Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).

You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,852 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March”

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  4. How about we cut to the chase and refer to the PM as Prime Minister “Botch Morrison”. Has a ring to it, don’t you think?

  7. I believe access to wilderness areas should be managed within Parks, where access and biological control should be easily affordable through the public purse and based on set numbers booked well in advance.

    Private companies may be contracted to assist in this role. Boats, buses. Even possibly subsidised air. And you can have people access the wilderness areas through their own means – 4WD, foot, bike. With Parks manning the biological control access points and monitoring/enforcing compliance. But the asset is owned and controlled by Parks.

    Ideally, yes, you could remove wilderness parts of National Parks from a ministers department and isolate it to protect it better. For example, a few years ago the head of the SA Environment dept told staff Parks were no longer about conservation but all about recreation. Sheesh. Yes, recreation is vital. It shows people the value of nature. But ditching conversation is just political hijacking of the role.

  8. KayJay

    Do you remember that old song – from the Depression?
    “Brahn boots … when other folk wore decent black or grey
    We didn’t know, he didn’t say, he’d give his other boots away.”?

  11. Q&A (which I don’t watch, but would if ..) could do a lot worse than put Hunt up with Butler. One on One Title Match.

  12. Interesting juxtaposition of stories on the smh home page on my tablet.

    Story about a Sony music executive getting the flick right next to column by Jacqueline Maley about how politicians can transgress and carry on in their jobs.

    They live in a different galaxy.

  13. Re N @8:57

    ”In the current order the Crown and the Senate can tip out the democratically elected chamber, the House. This happened in 1975. It will almost certainly happen again. The monarchic order is inherently a limited democracy. It is premised on privilege”

    Certainly the issues raised in 1975 have not been resolved. The only reason that there has been no recurrence is that the Opposition has not since then been able to muster a majority in the Senate. “Extraordinary and reprehensible circumstances” means that the Opposition and its allies hold a majority in the Senate at a time when the Government trails badly in the polls. Had this occurred during the Hawke, Keating, Rudd or Gillard governments the Opposition would have given the matter about three nanoseconds’ thought before blocking supply at the first opportunity. Likewise in future, the Right and its media and business allies will start plotting to block supply about three nanoseconds after the last vote is counted that elects a non-Right wing Government.

    Labor have pledged never to reject supply but would the temptation be too great should the opportunity arise?

    The Reserve Powers definitely need tidying up.

  15. Bucephalus @ #2390 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 8:40 am

    The current highly successful model of an apolitical Head of State acting as a Constitutional circuit breaker should not be discarded lightly and without an effective replacement.

    Nonsense. When Betty Windsor was put to the test in 1975 she did a combination of Sgt Schulz and the 3 wise monkeys. Her greatest concern was herself and our GG dealt with a Brit public servant.

  19. Certainly the issues raised in 1975 have not been resolved. The only reason that there has been no recurrence is that the Opposition has not since then been able to muster a majority in the Senate. “Extraordinary and reprehensible circumstances” means that the Opposition and its allies hold a majority in the Senate at a time when the Government trails badly in the polls. Had this occurred during the Hawke, Keating, Rudd or Gillard governments the Opposition would have given the matter about three nanoseconds’ thought before blocking supply at the first opportunity. Likewise in future, the Right and its media and business allies will start plotting to block supply about three nanoseconds after the last vote is counted that elects a non-Right wing Government.

    Labor have pledged never to reject supply but would the temptation be too great should the opportunity arise?

    The Reserve Powers definitely need tidying up.

    Kind of reminds me of that old maxim about rules of war. It stops being against the rules as soon as the belligerents decide it’s necessary.

  22. ItzaDream @ #2474 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 7:47 am

    Confessions @ #2465 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 9:44 am

    Morrison didn’t know there was a gender pay gap. Further proof of how out of step he is with the country.

    Further proof he’s lying would be my take. How could he not know.

    He spends his time listening only to what he wants to hear and surrounded by blokey white guys in blokey white guy environments like footy locker rooms and 2GB studios.

  23. Rex Douglas
    On the other hand I am absolutely sure they performed brilliantly in the ‘shovel millions to mates’ department. All those juicy taxpayer $s for vaccine delivery/services etc.

  26. zoomster says:
    Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 9:02 am

    “the present requirements for Constitutional change are too restrictive and have prevented necessary changes.”

    The certainty of your pronouncements doesn’t make them right. I’d like to see significant changes to the Constitution but that doesn’t mean that they are either necessary or right.

  28. lizzie @ #2457 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 9:36 am

    KayJay

    Do you remember that old song – from the Depression?
    “Brahn boots … when other folk wore decent black or grey
    We didn’t know, he didn’t say, he’d give his other boots away.”?

    That one had passed me by …. 🥾🥾 One of Stanley Holloway’s monologues from the days of Music Hall and Worker’s Playtime.

    Why, brahn boots!
    I ask yer… brahn boots!
    Fancy coming to a funeral
    In brahn boots!
    I will admit ‘e ‘ad a nice black tie,
    Black fingernails and a nice black eye
    But yer can’t see people orf when they die,
    In brahn boots!

    Good recall. Thanks.

    P.S. The gentlemen at the Wedding wore sedate blueish/greyish suits, white shirts and brown ties and…..brahn shoes.

    Now for a rousing chorus of “Any Old Iron.”

  29. What’s behind the recent violence in Northern Ireland?

    The initial days of disorder came in the same week as authorities said they would not prosecute the leaders of nationalist party Sinn Fein for allegedly breaking coronavirus restrictions last summer when they attended a funeral for Bobby Storey, a former senior figure in the IRA, a paramilitary group who led a decadeslong campaign for an independent and reunified Ireland.

    Storey’s funeral drew crowds of around 2,000 people.

    Loyalist communities have accused authorities of partisan hypocrisy around that decision, saying that they had taken the decision to cancel their traditional Twelfth of July parades last summer due to Covid-19 and had missed out on events and attending funerals of loved ones because they had adhered to those restrictions.

    But many analysts also point to the recent and successful police crackdown on drug gangs and criminal activity supported and run by loyalist paramilitary forces.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/09/uk/northern-ireland-violence-explainer-gbr-intl/index.html

  30. poroti @ #2465 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 9:51 am

    Rex Douglas
    On the other hand I am absolutely sure they performed brilliantly in the ‘shovel millions to mates’ department. All those juicy taxpayer $s for vaccine delivery/services etc.

    Yes, those well connected are profiting, but I suspect many Liberal partisans are fretting that Morrison is losing public support and is growingly being seen as what I hear more and more, a ‘bullshitter’.

  31. Confessions says:
    Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 9:10 am

    “They seriously bungled the first, failed at the second, and have completely botched the last.”

    The evidence doesn’t support your conclusions. On any international comparison Australia is one of the best performing nations during the global crisis.

    Just because you don’t like the Government doesn’t make them wrong.

  32. N says:
    Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 9:17 am

    “The proposition that the Crown is apolitical is a myth.”

    So, you have evidence of it acting politically?

    Even the recent release of letters between Kerr and the Palace disproved your claim.

  34. In the current Auspol system, it seems one of the additional least democratic elements of Auspol is the two major and moribund parties.
    With fit ups, back room deals, and secretive donor interests served more than public interests. Their own internal processes are even less democratic and less broadly representative of the country than the current electoral system.

    No doubt there would be bipartisan campaigning against more democracy and public involvement, lest the vested interests lose their control over policy through buying out both the major parties.

    If Australia was more democratic, would its economic policies be better?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-11/if-australia-was-more-democratic-would-its-economic-policies-imp/100060786

  35. As CBS2’s Dick Brennan reports, 54-year-old Thomas Webster is a former NYPD officer and Marine, but authorities say on Jan. 6, during the Capitol riot, he was “like a junkyard dog, teeth bared, fists clenched.”

    Prosecutors say that he “attacked a police officer with an aluminum pole and ripped off his protective gear and gas mask, causing the officer to choke.”

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2025268

  36. Any successes we’ve had with covid have been in spite of the Federal Liberals, not because of them. Voters get that too, as the results in WA attest.

  37. Waiting for Taylormade to try to change the subject by claiming Victorian Liberal Party opposition leader Micheal O’Brien is the best Liberal Party leader in the country

  39. ‘You Can’t Trust Anyone’: Russia’s Hidden Covid Toll Is an Open Secret

    The country’s official coronavirus death toll is 102,649. But at least 300,000 more people died last year during the pandemic than were reported in Russia’s most widely cited official statistics.

    Not all of those deaths were necessarily from the virus. But they belie President Vladimir V. Putin’s contention that the country has managed the virus better than most. In reality, a New York Times analysis of mortality data shows deaths in Russia during the pandemic last year were 28 percent higher than normal — an increase in mortality greater than in the United States and most countries in Europe.

    For much of the last year, Russia has appeared more focused on the public-relations and economic aspects of the pandemic than on fighting the virus itself. After a harsh two-month lockdown last spring, the government largely lifted restrictions last summer, a boon for public opinion and the economy, even as the disease spread more rapidly.

    By the fall, Russian scientists had developed a Covid vaccine widely seen as one of the best in the world — but the Kremlin has put a greater emphasis on using the Sputnik V shot to score geopolitical points rather than on immunizing its own population.

    Perhaps the starkest sign, though, of the state’s priorities is its minimization of the coronavirus death toll — a move that, many critics say, kept much of the public in the dark about the disease’s dangers and about the importance of getting a vaccine.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/10/world/europe/covid-russia-death.html

  40. Morrison most likely had heard something about a gender pay gap but he and his kind think it doesn’t matter.

    He is of the school that thinks women should be grateful men allow them to work at all.

  41. Bucephalus says:
    Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 10:05 am
    N says:
    Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 9:17 am

    “The proposition that the Crown is apolitical is a myth.”

    So, you have evidence of it acting politically?

    Kerr colluded with the LOTO to dismiss Whitlam, instal his own chancellor and dissolve the Parliament. In what way was this not the exercise of power in a politically-purposed fashion?

    Really, the Libs are famous for being disingenuous. But to contend that Kerr – the embodiment of Crown privilege – was apolitical is just an absurdity.

  42. I also agree with the Tasmanians that it’s time for Albanese to become more colourful.

    I disagree with that.

    Albanese’s current approach of calm, meat and potatoes politics, is the right approach because it contrasts best against Morrison’s bombastic and chaotic overselling marketing approach which polling respondents are waking up to.

    Albanese is doing him slowly.

  43. There is no Industrial Award or EBA in Australia where people are paid different pay rates based on gender. There is no wages gap.

  44. Kerr could have counselled Fraser and Withers to the effect that their conduct relied on him doing something he felt bound not to do. But he chose to use the Crown’s position to favour them. He upended several centuries of convention. Kerr’s bequest to us is the total bastardisation of the electoral system.

  45. Sky Sunday Agenda had a poll on Upper Hunter. Internal Poll Done by the Nationals (if its like Eden Monaro its not much chop. If it is somewhat accurate, Jodie may be getting her resume updated soon)
    Nats 38
    Lab 28
    SFF 13
    Onat 12
    Others 9

  46. Rossmcg @ #2482 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 10:12 am

    Morrison most likely had heard something about a gender pay gap but he and his kind think it doesn’t matter.

    He is of the school that thinks women should be grateful men allow them to work at all.

    I think he is of the school that thinks males are superior to females in the workplace.

  47. Because of Kerr’s acts, no election for the House of Representatives is reliable. Elections for the House can be repudiated by the Senate in concert with the Crown. End of story. This deeply involves the Crown in politics – in the machinations for power. This is a highly undesirable and undemocratic feature of our system but it seems it’s one we’re not likely to soon change.

    We have a limited and contingent democracy. The limits and the contingencies depend upon the mind of the Crown at any given point.

  48. There is no Industrial Award or EBA in Australia where people are paid different pay rates based on gender. There is no wages gap.

    This is not what the women’s pay gap really means.

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