My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).
The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.
It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.
The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.
Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).
You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.
American Gothic shower curtains are currently 30% off:
https://society6.com/product/american-gothic-grant-wood_shower-curtain
The bathtub should be a claw foot cast iron affair. Naturally.
Rex
Handmaids Tale was written in the 80s.
It’s as scary as shit because we know there are people sitting not a million miles away from the seat of power in this country who would like to see elements of the life it portrays come true.
Saw this headline on SMH:
Prince Philip includes nod to Australia in newly released, radically slimmed down funeral plans
Has Andrew Battenberg been invited?
I think it is a shame Mark Butler is not LOTO. He’s perhaps their most polished performer …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-11/labor-mark-butler-covid-vaccine-rollout/100061644
Rossmcg @ #2551 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 12:17 pm
There is a sequel published 2019
The Testaments is a 2019 novel by Margaret Atwood. It is a sequel to The Handmaid’s Tale (1985).[2] The novel is set 15 years after the events of The Handmaid’s Tale. It is narrated by Aunt Lydia, a character from the previous novel; Agnes, a young woman living in Gilead; and Daisy, a young woman living in Canada.[3]
The Testaments was joint winner of the 2019 Man Booker Prize, alongside Bernardine Evaristo’s novel Girl, Woman, Other.[4] It was also voted ‘Best Fiction’ novel in the Goodreads Choice Awards 2019, winning by over 50,000 votes.[5]
Player One @ #2546 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 12:24 pm
The Shorten/Fitzgibbon OTIS group would prefer he was ‘managed out’ of parliament altogether.
Greensborough Growler @ #2539 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 11:49 am
Frydenbnurg is the only one with a chance of beating Labor.
lizzie says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 10:23 am
There is no Industrial Award or EBA in Australia where people are paid different pay rates based on gender. There is no wages gap.
This is not what the women’s pay gap really means.
—————————————–
Lizzie
If that isn’t what it really mean then what does it mean?
Rex Douglas @ #2555 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 12:26 pm
P1, Mundo was rubbished back in 2019 for suggesting same.
I remember watching an interview on the campaign trail featuring Shorten, Butler and someone else and I imagined not knowing who they were or what positions they occupied and came to the conclusion based on the three media ‘performances’ Butler must clearly be the leader.
Butler strikes me as the type that pleases the party faithful but is unproven.
pritu @ #2535 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 11:42 am
Err, pretty sure it’s meant to?
Rossmcg says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 12:17 pm
“Rex
Handmaids Tale was written in the 80s.
It’s as scary as shit because we know there are people sitting not a million miles away from the seat of power in this country who would like to see elements of the life it portrays come true.”
Complete and utter bollocks. Some of you people are either certifiable or inveterate liars.
mundo
‘Butler must clearly be the leader…’
Yeah, that’s why Butler achieved so much when it came to climate change….
Jen’s place at home. Re marriage , Scotty’s flavor of god botherer are very fond of……………………..
.
zoomster @ #2555 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 12:46 pm
He was undermined and torn down by those genius Labor right OTIS groupers.
Player One @ #2513 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 10:45 am
Very funny Rex.
mexican
Gender pay gap, to me, covers both rates of pay and opportunity.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 12:41 pm
“Lizzie
If that isn’t what it really mean then what does it mean?”
Exactly. If they want to discuss lifetime earnings and how couples and families manage their finances then cal it something else. There is no wage gap based on gender.
And on the matter of superannuation – what’s mine is my wife’s and what’s hers is hers.
zoomster @ #945 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 12:46 pm
You mean in the 3 months he was minister in 2013?
Also for something different to view is seasons 1-4 of HBO’s ‘Banshee’ – Set in the small town of Banshee in Pennsylvania Amish country, the series main character is an enigmatic ex-con (NZ’s Antony Starr) who assumes the identity of Lucas Hood the towns unknown upcoming new sheriff who is murdered before he can be installed ……. its all very confronting and violent but addictive ……
Butler had five years as Climate Change spokesman and never achieved anything for Labor apart from platitudinous pronouncements and managing to be politically done over by Bob Brown’s convoy of craziness.
zoomster @ #2562 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 12:46 pm
Well, at least Labor had a policy of its own back then 🙁
Lack of transparency means it’s rife with waste and mismanagement.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/11/australias-covid-vaccination-relying-on-opaque-private-contracts-worth-millions
GG
Butler was never as clear on CC as he was this morning on health.
As climate spokesperson, Butler was hog-tied and gagged by Labor’s corrupted fossil fuel MP’s.
lizzie @ #2573 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 12:59 pm
Probably because Labor was itself conflicted on the issue.
mundo
‘Shadow Minister for Environment, Climate Change and Water from 18.10.2013 to 23.7.2016.
Shadow Minister for Climate Change and Energy from 23.7.2016 to 28.1.2021.’
The Morrison government is as transparent as mud.
If Mark Butler was leadership material, he’d have cut through regardless.
Nice guy, and perhaps it’s his lack of killer instinct which held him back.
Some concerns that Pfizer might not be as effective vs the South African variant.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/real-world-israeli-data-shows-south-african-variant-better-at-bypassing-vaccine/
The fossil fuel unions would never back Butler as leader.
Seriously let’s put some definitions and facts in the story with respect to the gender wage gap in Australia. Read here:
https://www.wgea.gov.au/publications/australias-gender-pay-gap-statistics
So, let’s get back to how to solve it average differences. Collective bargaining outcomes don’t have a gender pay gap according to Bucephalus! I stand with Bucephalus on this approach. We need simply people to be restricted to wages as determined by Industrial awards or Enterprise Bargaining outcomes to avoid any difference due to gender.
Let’s start with CEO’s. How about it Mexicanbeemer? Are you on board as well?
Dio.
We’ve known for some time that all the vaccines are less effective against the SA variant.
The question is which is the least worse. Also, which has the capability to be updated faster.
In a way, the beat up over AZ’s safety may have done us a favour.
zoomster @ #2579 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 1:06 pm
You could say exactly the same about Albo.
At least Butler seems genuine and has some ‘presence’.
Rex
Whether or not Butler could be leader isn’t the context of the discussion.
It’s whether he has what it takes to be a leader.
Someone who should have been one of the most important voices on a particular issue over the last decade would, if they had a spark of leadership, have made more of an impact than Butler did.
P1
You might have noticed that I do say much the same about Albo.
Buce was doubting Morrison’s lack of knowledge regarding the gender pay gap.
From Insiders this morning.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1381038180305006593
zoomster @ #2586 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 1:14 pm
So you agree Butler would be better than Albo? He’s certainly a better media performer.
P1
Didn’t agree with that part of it, although when it comes to achievements, they probably rank about the same.
zoomster @ #2579 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 1:06 pm
I think it may have been at least partly the way the media framed him as the resident greenie in the ALP and dismissed him as such.
They can’t really do that with health.
Sometimes I think it may be better to have opposition spokespeople who can not be pigeonholed by the media in relation to their area of responsibility. You can have two different people proclaiming exactly the same policies but if the way the media frames them is different, it leads to a quite different message reaching the public.
Similarly, I don’t think Bowen is portraying a significantly different climate change policy compared to Butler, but what he does say can’t be so easily dismissed as boring left faction stuff.
zoomster @ #2583 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 1:18 pm
We all know you’re both Shorten boosters at heart that can’t accept he has always been unelectable.
Any decrease in the gender pay gap during the LNP period of government will be due to their suppression of male wage growth rather than promoting increase for females.
This includes older males being laid off in restructures and then being rehired later (if at all) on lower wages. Award or bargained wages do not tell the full story as there are always a significant proportion of workers being paid above the agreed rates. As that proportion is pared back, wages in general are being suppressed.
Agreed ajm.
Having everyone on an award results in everyone having the same interest in raising the award.
Bucephalus agrees as well 🙂
ajm @ #2590 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 1:21 pm
Bowen will have a much easier job than Butler did, because Labor’s recent lurch to the right effectively means we now have a bipartisan approach to climate change policy.
As PvO put it – “a bipartisanship of cowardice” 🙁
Rex
Feel free to use actual arguments – you could lay out Butler and Albo’s achievements, for example.
On media “performance”
This is less important in my mind than the amount of time, column centimetres, and narrative framing accorded to different people.
Morrison, Hunt, McCormack, Dutton et al are actually abysmal media “performers”, but they are given lots of exposure and treated by the media as authoritative.
Oakeshott Countrys:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 12:24 pm
[‘Has Andrew Battenberg been invited’]
No, but Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has been invited provided no pics are taken, though being a prince of the realm, he’s only required to use his surname for formal documents such as marriage, divorce instruments, driver’s licence. I’ve got an inkling that you may harbour republican sympathies.
Rex Douglas @ #2591 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 1:23 pm
I prefer Shorten only because I think he’s more electable than Albo, and I want Labor to win.
However, it would probably be fair to say that I think anyone is more electable than Albo, so I’d be happy to settle for Butler.
zoomster @ #2589 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 1:33 pm
You’re the one who wants to demote Albanese and elevate Shorten to the leadership again so perhaps it’s you and P1 who should be explaining yourselves …?