Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March

Big movement to Labor in the smaller states in the latest Newspoll breakdowns, but nothing of what might have been expected on gender.

My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).

The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.

It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.

The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.

Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).

You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,852 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March”

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  1. The vaccine rollout schemozzle has yet to flow through to the polls either. So Morrison’s new +1 (due to the beginning of the rollout at last?), may yet again take a slide.

    And it looks like the job of dumping Christian Porter and Linda Reynolds (because somehow I don’t think she’ll be top of the WA Senate ticket), will have to come down to the WA voters. Mr Slim Majority (SliMo?), certainly isn’t going to do it for them.

    Jeez, Nicolle Flint’s performance, off-Broadway at The Canberra Bubble Theatre, doesn’t seem to have played as well as ProMo thought it would either.

  2. The Friendly Jordies Effect?

    Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34

  3. this is why the predictability from the media, Libs/nats and their supporters try to get the focus onto Labor leadership propaganda , when reality is that it always the liberal party who are more likely to change their leader before the upcoming election

  4. Good News!

    The US supreme court on Monday declined to hear an appeal by the Infowars host, Trump ally and conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, who was fighting a Connecticut court sanction in a defamation lawsuit brought by relatives of some victims of the Sandy Hook school shooting.

    Jones was penalized in 2019 by a trial court judge for an angry outburst against an attorney for the relatives and for violating numerous orders to turn over documents to lawyers. Judge Barbara Bellis barred Jones from filing a motion to dismiss the case and said she would order Jones to pay some of the families’ legal fees.

    Jones argued he should not have been sanctioned for exercising his free speech rights. The Connecticut supreme court upheld Bellis’s ruling last year.

    The families and an FBI agent who responded to the 2012 shooting, in which 20 first-graders and six educators were killed, are suing Jones and his web show over claims the massacre was a hoax. The families said they have been subjected to harassment and death threats from Jones’s followers.

    Jones, whose show is based in Austin, Texas, has since said he believes the shooting occurred. The supreme court turned down his appeal request without comment.

    Jones’s attorney, Norman Pattis, called the court’s decision “a disappointment”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2021/apr/05/alex-jones-sandy-hook-school-shooting-case-supreme-court-appeal

    Poor victims of the SCOTUS. Not.

  5. Tony Windsor
    @TonyHWindsor
    ·
    11h
    The politicisation of Commonwealth Chief Medical Officers is complete…nothing more than Government spokespersons now.

  8. It is interesting to see the over 65 age cohort throw its lot in with Coalition’s dreadful age care policies. On this basis, the recommendations of the latest royal commission can again be safely ignored.

  9. c@t

    Porter’s political career ended when he decided to back Clive Palmer over Mark McGowan.

    In “normal times” he might have scraped over purely because of the rusted on-ness of Lib voters. As the recent state election proved these are not normal times, and Sandgropers will always rally around each other, political affiliation be damned.

    The only way Porter is not going to have his arse handed to him is if the seat of Pearce is the seat that WA loses in the current rejig of electoral boundaries.

    That’s long before WA voters even begin to contemplate his current “troubles”. Those may well be the icing on the cake. but they won’t be the raison d’etre for his arse being handed to him.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Looking at the Newspoll quarterly review, Simon Benson writes that the Coalition has lost significant electoral ground across its traditionally strongest states of Western Australia and Queensland and is facing collapse in South Australia, amid a war of words with the premiers over the vaccine rollout and the aftermath of the sexual ­assault allegations that have rocked the federal government.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-coalition-in-election-peril-after-hit-in-resources-states/news-story/8054285c6d0043314463bb676d1d04aa
    Peter Hartcher says that probably no country has paid as high a price as Australia did for the international inquiry into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. By becoming the first in the world publicly to call for an independent investigation, Australia made itself a target of the Chinese Communist Party.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-paid-a-high-price-for-unsatisfying-report-into-global-tragedy-20210405-p57gke.html
    It could take more than two decades for Australia’s House of Representatives to reach gender parity, even if women win two in every three seats gained by the Coalition in the next few elections, according to new modelling, writes Daniel Hurst.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/06/coalition-will-hold-up-gender-parity-in-australias-parliament-for-decades-thinktank-says
    In a special report, Shane Wright has a good look at the RBA and wonders if it has failed Australia.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-central-bank-under-fire-has-the-rba-failed-australians-20210315-p57auu.html
    Rob Harris writes that secret documents have cast doubt on the independence of a wide-ranging review into the National Disability Insurance Scheme that recommended the most radical overhaul of the $25 billion program since it was established. You couldn’t trust Stuart Robert as far as you could throw him!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/secret-documents-show-department-inserted-chapter-into-ndis-review-20210402-p57g5s.html
    NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet has said the blame game over delays to the COVID-19 vaccine rollout must end, insisting the high cost of increasing its involvement in the program would not stop NSW from playing a larger role.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/we-have-one-job-and-that-s-to-fight-the-virus-not-each-other-perrottet-20210405-p57glh.html
    Australia risks never achieving herd immunity to Covid-19 unless it ramps up its strategy for engaging with vaccine hesitant populations, a former health department chief and an epidemiologist have warned.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/06/australia-warned-it-wont-achieve-herd-immunity-unless-it-deals-with-vaccine-hesitancy
    New COVID variants have changed the game, and vaccines will not be enough. We need global ‘maximum suppression’, says this large panel of experts for The Conversation.
    https://theconversation.com/new-covid-variants-have-changed-the-game-and-vaccines-will-not-be-enough-we-need-global-maximum-suppression-157870
    There is no hard evidence of a link between the vaccine that will dominate Australia’s rollout and the syndrome, but experts are watchful nonetheless, explains Liam Mannix.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/here-s-what-we-know-about-astrazeneca-and-that-rare-blood-clotting-disorder-20210405-p57gl5.html
    Josh Butler writes that expats are praising the overseas mass-vaccination model our government refuses to implement.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2021/04/06/mass-vacination-australia/
    The AFR’s Sarah Turner writes that leading market economists expect house prices to roar ahead this year, but it’s an open question as to whether the gains will trigger a monetary clampdown.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/how-policy-response-to-property-market-could-cool-economy-20210330-p57f45
    A cynical Michael Pascoe lifts the lid on what he describes as “the ‘expert’ consultants racket”.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/04/06/expert-consultants-racket-pascoe/
    And, right on cue, Australia is building a slew of new coal projects just as global demand for coal is in retreat. It’s justified by “independent expert” reports from the likes of Big Four firms Deloitte and EY. Luke Stacey and Michael West report on the flawed economics and compromised reports of the consultants.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/crooked-consulting-ey-and-deloitte-spruik-climate-on-one-hand-the-explosion-in-new-coal-projects-on-the-other/
    The climate spin can’t go on forever. Net zero must be our aim, says Alan Kohler.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/04/06/alan-kohler-net-zero-2050/
    Ad Astra marks the day Scott Morrison lost the next election.
    https://theaimn.com/the-day-scott-morrison-lost-the-next-election/
    The potential misuse of travel allowance claims from the office of a federal politician is the subject of an Australian Federal Police investigation, reports Josh Butler.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2021/04/05/afp-investigation-travel/
    Jennifer Duke reports that Labor’s Stephen Jones has written to 90 Coalition MPs urging them to vote against the federal government’s proposed changes to the $3 trillion superannuation sector.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/find-a-way-to-kill-it-superannuation-bill-under-attack-from-labor-and-funds-20210405-p57gim.html
    The Morrison government has warned a jump in pay for low income earners could force small businesses already coping with the economic fallout of the global pandemic to cut jobs or staff hours.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/big-rise-to-minimum-wage-risks-small-business-jobs-federal-government-warns-20210405-p57gn6.html
    Major defence companies have been put on notice they can no longer blame higher production costs in Australia for shunning local suppliers, with Defence Industry Minister Melissa Price warning they need to ensure home-grown companies benefit from the country’s multibillion-dollar arms build-up, writes Andrew Tillett.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/big-defence-firms-need-to-do-better-on-local-content-promises-20210404-p57gdl
    Kate McClymont tells us that, according to provisional liquidators, investors who lost millions of dollars in an unlicensed investment scheme run by accused fraudster Melissa Caddick may have “substantial claims” against accountants who audited their self-managed superannuation funds.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/melissa-caddick-s-victims-may-have-case-against-accountants-say-liquidators-20210405-p57gih.html
    Britain’s barnstorming coronavirus vaccine rollout is being credited with a 60 per cent drop in symptomatic cases and 80 per cent fall in hospital admissions, clearing the way for the economy’s reopening, reports Bevan Shields.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/barnstorming-vaccine-effort-key-to-dramatic-reversal-of-uk-s-covid-crisis-20210406-p57gpp.html

    Cartoon Corner – with a couple for Boerwar

    David Pope

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding



    Mark Knight

    John Shakespeare


    Andrew Dyson

    Alan Moir

    David Rowe

    A gif from Glen Le Lievre
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1378858360221491208
    John Spooner

    From the US







  12. DP,
    But wasn’t it the seat of Stirling and Vince Connelly, that the AEC recommended abolishing and redrawing the boundaries around? Pearce, and Porter, may yet survive to face the wrath of the voters. 🙂

  13. This:

    The AFR’s Sarah Turner writes that leading market economists expect house prices to roar ahead this year, but it’s an open question as to whether the gains will trigger a monetary clampdown.

    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/how-policy-response-to-property-market-could-cool-economy-20210330-p57f45

    Goes with this:

    In a special report, Shane Wright has a good look at the RBA and wonders if it has failed Australia.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-central-bank-under-fire-has-the-rba-failed-australians-20210315-p57auu.html

    The RBA has been intimidated into timidity by the Coalition. Another example of a public institution that has been cowed into subservience by them to go against their public charter to serve the Australian people.

  14. Labor will win government with a 46% primary vote.

    Edit: I’ve decided the Green’s no longer exist, and have re-distributed their first preferences accordingly.

  15. Thanks William
    The drop in PHON support is a trend that should worry moderate Liberals & Nationals.
    Those people had to go somewhere.
    Do the ratbag Right now see Morrison as One Of Us? Morrison has been working hard to appeal to their misogynistic, white supremacist, racist attitudes.
    Shutting down the Family Court was a big one, of course.
    He refused to attend the March4Justice rally because to do so would have given it credibility.
    He attends blokes’ footy, drives blokes’ armored vehicles (leaving the female Qld Opposition leader sidelined), happily kicks Gladys (who is supposedly on his side) when he needs to divert attention from his vaccine rollout woes.
    He signals his support to the blimey, white supremacist, misogynistic racists every chance he gets.
    The fact that only ONE extremist far-right group has so far been listed as a terrorist organisation says it all.
    Morrison is attracting the PHON supporters, even better than did Howard.
    And losing the moderate Libs, apparently.

  17. Did anyone else watch “Brazen Hussies” ABC last night ?

    At the time I didn’t feel part of Women’s Lib, but the program took me back to how it felt before and after Gough changed the world for women.

    But the thought I was left with was that we have come almost full circle and need a new revolution, because the attitudes of dominant males have hardly changed.

  18. In one day!

    More than four million people in the United States received a coronavirus vaccine on Saturday — the nation’s highest one-day total since the shots began rolling out in December — amid a rising caseload and increase in hospitalizations.

    An average of 3.1 million shots were administered each day over the past seven days, and nearly 1 in 4 adults are now fully vaccinated, said Andy Slavitt, the White House’s senior adviser for covid-19 response, speaking at a news briefing.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/04/05/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/

  20. “ Edit: I’ve decided the Green’s no longer exist, and have re-distributed their first preferences accordingly”

    That’s the way. Labor – and progressive politics generally – works best if the Green vampires are simply ignored.*

    *except for the People’s Republic of Canberra, of course 😉

  21. Fess,
    I reckon the Biden Administration are looking at the Brazilian P1 Variant of COVID-19 with horror. They don’t want it to overwhelm their efforts.

  23. Confessions@7:55 am
    So it takes only 5 days for the Federal government to vaccinate the whole Australian population. So you can understand why LNP thinks vaccine rollout is on track. 🙂

  24. C@t:

    Yep, watching on with horror alright!

    For weeks, César Salomé, a physician in Lima’s Hospital Mongrut, had followed the chilling reports. A new coronavirus variant, spawned in the Amazon rainforest, had stormed Brazil and driven its health system to the brink of collapse. Now his patients, too, were arriving far sicker, their lungs saturated with disease, and dying within days. Even the young and healthy didn’t appear protected.

    The new variant, he realized, was here.

    “We used to have more time,” Salomé said. “Now, we have patients who come in and in a few days they’ve lost the use of their lungs.”

    The P.1 variant, which packs a suite of mutations that makes it more transmissible and potentially more dangerous, is no longer just Brazil’s problem. It’s South America’s problem — and the world’s.

    In recent weeks, it has been carried across rivers and over borders, evading restrictive measures meant to curb its advance to help fuel a coronavirus surge across the continent. There is mounting anxiety in parts of South America that P.1 could quickly become the dominant variant, transporting Brazil’s humanitarian disaster — patients languishing without care, a skyrocketing death toll — into their countries.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/04/05/brazil-variant-coronavirus-south-america/

  25. RN Breakfast
    @RNBreakfast
    “Only about 14% of aged care facilities have been fully vaccinated. They were supposed to complete the entirety of the aged care sector last week,” says @Mark_Butler_MP Shadow Minister for Health & Ageing.

    He says that there is no data available on aged care workforce.

  26. C@tmomma@7:59 am
    On that basis, 25% of US population is brainwashed. 🙂
    Remember US admininistrations admonishing Soviet Union of brainwashing their populations?

  27. lizzie @ #NaN Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 8:04 am

    RN Breakfast
    @RNBreakfast
    “Only about 14% of aged care facilities have been fully vaccinated. They were supposed to complete the entirety of the aged care sector last week,” says @Mark_Butler_MP Shadow Minister for Health & Ageing.

    He says that there is no data available on aged care workforce.

    Because the most secretive government since the height of the USSR isn’t releasing it(yes I know it’s a bit of an exaggeration). Not even to the Coalition Mate States.

    Funny how the feds are in charge of Aged Care when it suits them, huh?

  28. c@t,
    I honestly don’t know which seat is going to end up being abolished.

    It would be v-e-r-y convenient for Porter if it turned out to be Pearce though.

    I’ve had a quick squizz at AEC site, and everything is still at the proposal stage. Without reading any of the pdf’s linked to on the site, every seat is going to have to be redrawn, not just those surrounding whatever seat is going to be abolished. I hadn’t thought about it that way, but it’s bleeding obvious now that I have.

    https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2021/wa/proposed-redistribution/

  29. Ven @ #NaN Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 8:07 am

    C@tmomma@7:59 am
    On that basis, 25% of US population is brainwashed. 🙂
    Remember US admininistrations admonishing Soviet Union of brainwashing their populations?

    Ven, they just learned the lessons and applied them in the digital age. Berlusconi and Putin being great educators.

  30. ‘lizzie says:
    Tuesday, April 6, 2021 at 7:54 am

    Did anyone else watch “Brazen Hussies” ABC last night ?

    At the time I didn’t feel part of Women’s Lib, but the program took me back to how it felt before and after Gough changed the world for women.

    But the thought I was left with was that we have come almost full circle and need a new revolution, because the attitudes of dominant males have hardly changed.’

    We watched it and discussed it. I thought the person who offered the view (Summers, I believe) that there has been major progress but much needs to be done hit the nail on the head. I look at all the next gen women in our lives and the difference between their world and my mother’s world is chalk and cheese: aspirations, employment opportunities, income levels, home loans, economic independence, child minding, behaviours of the male parents…

  32. Danama Papers @ #NaN Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 8:10 am

    c@t,
    I honestly don’t know which seat is going to end up being abolished.

    It would be v-e-r-y convenient for Porter if it turned out to be Pearce though.

    I’ve had a quick squizz at AEC site, and everything is still at the proposal stage. Without reading any of the pdf’s linked to on the site, every seat is going to have to be redrawn, not just those surrounding whatever seat is going to be abolished. I hadn’t thought about it that way, but it’s bleeding obvious now that I have.

    https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2021/wa/proposed-redistribution/

    Thanks for that, DP. The suggested timetable for it all suggests a tight squeak for Morrison if he wants to call a Spring election:
    https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2021/wa/timetable.htm

    Which, according to Ian Verrender is what Morrison and Frydebudget are cooking up between them to unleash in May as they roll out the pork barrel:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-06/budget-cash-splash-australian-politics-verrender/100049486

  34. ‘BK says:
    Tuesday, April 6, 2021 at 8:14 am

    Danama Papers
    I simply cannot STAND the word “woke” and how it is used!’

    Then it must be working as intended?

  35. lizzie@7:22am
    Windsor: Politisation of CMO s.
    Umm, Where did I hear that before. Did some other government do that before?
    Like injectioning disinfectants and sending UV light through backside and the CMOs staying mum about it.

  38. I’ve just finishing watching the doco Q. Into the Storm.
    Not surprising Ron Watkins and his dad James promoted the Q conspiracy which was then amplified by Trump and his fellow travellers.

    Surely people should now wake up to the fact that they have been duped bigly.

  39. It is good to see that there was a cartoon that includes China in today’s offerings.
    _____
    I knew you’d like them, Boerwar.

  40. UK Cartoons (hope everyone is enjoying these):

    Brian Adcock on free Covid tests for everyone in England:

    Seamus Jennings on the Vaccine Passport:

    Patrick Blower on CovidPassport:

    Paul Thomas on the Vaccine Passport:

    Andy Davey on the wave hitting the EU:

    Peter Schrank on the Vaccine Passport:

    Ben Jennings on Covid Vaccine Passport:

    Brian Adcock: A year into the job and Keir Starmer is not having much of an impact:

    Patrick Blower on Boris and Michael Gove as the nightclub bouncers:

    Peter Schrank on the efforts the UK and the EU are making at working together:

    Peter Schrank on how Netflix is creating a common European culture:

    Mac on LockdownRestrictions for EasterSunday:

    Morten Morland on KeirStarmer:

  47. Morning all and thanks for the roundup BK. On this story:

    “The potential misuse of travel allowance claims from the office of a federal politician is the subject of an Australian Federal Police investigation, reports Josh Butler.”
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2021/04/05/afp-investigation-travel/

    The fact the people under investigation are not named makes me strongly suspect they are COALition figures, on recent form. Perhaps Peter Slipper, retired lawyer, could assist with the investigation. He will know the penalties off the top of his head.

  50. By becoming the first in the world publicly to call for an independent investigation, Australia made itself a target of the Chinese Communist Party.

    Did pencil neck Hartcher mention how many hours it was after Scotty bragged about his telephone call with Trump that Scotty put on his ‘tough guy’ act re China ? Way to go Scotty scored a double. Really make us look like a US/Trump lap dog and in doing so put a bit “Kick Me” on our back’s. You really couldn’t get a dumber way to going about getting an inquiry going into The Plague..
    .
    .
    Andrew Probyn
    Posted WedWednesday 22 AprApril 2020 at 2:22pm, updated WedWednesday 22 AprApril 2020 at 9:23pm
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison………suggesting that the World Health Organization (WHO) needed tough new “weapons inspector” powers to investigate what caused the outbreak.

    It was political dynamite.
    .
    .
    Scott Morrison
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    ·
    Apr 22, 2020
    Just got off the phone with US President
    @realDonaldTrump
    . We had a very constructive discussion on our health responses to #COVID19 and the need to get our market-led and business centres economies up and running again.

    ‘

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