My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).
The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.
It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.
The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.
Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).
You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.
Buce
Except no National Park ever has been declared on the basis that it should be locked up. They’ve always been open to public use.
zoomster says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 8:47 am
I have seen no such proposals from Republicans – they can’t even decide on a model let alone the details.
It’s also possible your partner might murder you. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t have a partner.
Also, since when does Pauline Hanson or Clive Palmer have support anywhere near the level of winning a nationwide election? Not a nominally safe Coalition seat in parliament that he wins with Labor preferences. Not a proportionally elected Senate seat but a nationwide popular vote.
Buce
‘It’s certainly a possibility under the models proposed by the Republicans.’
Not all of them. The original ‘chosen by 2/3rds of Parliament’ would make it unlikely. If it did enable it, it would be because we’d democratically elected a Parliament dominated by MPs who thought it was a good idea. I’d suggest we’d then have bigger issues to worry about.
Steve777 says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 8:44 am
If we are to become a Republic then the change should at least be based upon improving our system of governance. I have yet to see such a proposal.
There’s much we can do to improve our system of governance without becoming a republic or otherwise changing the Constitution. The Republic (and the Monarchy) are largely symbolic, about how we present the nation to ourselves and to the wider world.
In the current order the Crown and the Senate can tip out the democratically elected chamber, the House. This happened in 1975. It will almost certainly happen again. The monarchic order is inherently a limited democracy. It is premised on privilege.
Buce
I’m sure you’ve read up on the proposals for a Republic avidly.
Rational Leftist says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 8:52 am
I thought Sleepy Joe was going to unite the Nation? Can’t even get workers in a warehouse to vote for unionisation.
Rational Leftist @ #2361 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 8:52 am
Amazon has a history of making it hard for them. Read this NYT article and watch the video by the Union Organiser:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/technology/amazon-defeats-union.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20210410&instance_id=29094&nl=todaysheadlines®i_id=70388838&segment_id=55326&user_id=a91bf1b405424bbaec95cc9b66658064
They basically feared for their jobs if they voted to form a union because Amazon knew who was voting for it.
He’d be furious if he knew.
Because every joke has to be spelled out online, I was referring to a notable incident from 1861-65.
…regardless, I think the ‘minor changes’ model originally proposed missed a huge opportunity. I’d like to see a Republican convention where everything was off the table. If we’re going to change the Constitution, let’s do it properly, and get rid of all the bits which are out of date or obstructive.
For example, the present requirements for Constitutional change are too restrictive and have prevented necessary changes.
We also need clarification of some of the State/Fed responsibilities. In some cases, the Feds have already taken over what were State responsibilities; in others, they should.
Looks cold in Tassie for Insiders today.
Pauline Hanson may have a chance of being elected by the people if her only opposition was someone like SHY…
After how long since the Republic vote and still no one can be confident of a working sensible model?
I am a republican but extremely sceptical on how one would work in practice.
If you can get past the paywall, this contribution from Peter Goers in the Adelaide Sunday Mail is priceless. He went to a new café at the Centennial Park Cemetery.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/peter-goers-theyll-be-handy-for-wakes-assisted-dying-conferences-and-ideal-for-100th-birthday-parties/news-story/8a7d003b3f553672a4dfe003abcd19f5
Here’s a sample.
“There are three function rooms. They’ll be handy for wakes, assisted dying conferences and ideal for 100th birthday parties – you’re so close to the funeral chapels. It’s one last stop. There’s also a very nice gift shop so you can shop before you drop.
What do you buy at a cemetery gift shop? Is it ash and carry? I’m looking for a nice reliquary and a good sturdy ossuary but they’re not stocked. Neither are other funeral requisites such as plastic flowers, tissues and shovels.
Thank goodness you can buy olive oil, balsamic vinegar, herbs, soap and you can order candles with a personalised photo of your loved one. What a relief. So often I’ve attended funerals at Centennial Park and really felt the need to buy balsamic vinegar. Now we all can. Incredibly, you can buy a book about waste management.”
”By your logic we therefore unable to trust the Government to oversea a National Park or anything else.”
I don’t trust the Morrison Government to oversea a National Park or anything else.
Good on John Howard for coming out to reinforce the need to keep our Gun Laws strong.
Steve777 @ #2379 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 9:06 am
Me neither. In fact, they’d probably privatise National Parks if they could.
zoomster says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 9:02 am
…regardless, I think the ‘minor changes’ model originally proposed missed a huge opportunity. I’d like to see a Republican convention where everything was off the table. If we’re going to change the Constitution, let’s do it properly, and get rid of all the bits which are out of date or obstructive.
For example, the present requirements for Constitutional change are too restrictive and have prevented necessary changes.
We also need clarification of some of the State/Fed responsibilities. In some cases, the Feds have already taken over what were State responsibilities; in others, they should.
Zoom….the Commonwealth bureaucracy is next to useless. They are a low-ambition/low-competency outfit. The States are better at doing things….much better.
As with marriage equality the majority wanted a republic. The undemocratic royalist forces bent on denying the will of the majority used a divide and conquer strategy.
The big mistake last time was to deny the popular desire for an elected head of state and assume parliament could appoint one without the people’s input. The solution to counter arguments of creating new powers and instability was to adopt the Irish or Finnish model whereby the president has limited and defined powers to appoint governments (no executive powers) similar to the current GG. That would have gotten majority support.
With the current foreign monarch being in the final years of her life, and a comparatively unpopular successor pending, now is the time to suggest a sensible (i.e. popular) model of a republic. Soon Scotland and Northern Ireland may not be part of Britain. It would be ridiculous if progressive politics wasted another chance.
N says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 8:57 am
In 1975 we were two weeks away from Postmen, soldiers, sailors and airmen being unable to put food on the table for their families because they would not have been paid.
The Constitutional Circuit Breaker allowed Civil Servants and members of the ADF to continue to be paid and for the voters to democratically pass judgment. Nothing to do with privilege.
The feds had 3 main jobs with Covid response:
– Secure the borders from international arrivals
– Protect aged care residents as the primary funder and regulator of RACFs
– Implement a vaccination program for all Australians
They seriously bungled the first, failed at the second, and have completely botched the last.
lizzie @ #2408 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 9:00 am
Sad, n’est ce pas. 😢
“By your logic we therefore unable to trust the Government to oversea a National Park or anything else.”
Flawless logic there. I wouldn’t trust Morrison to honestly run a raffle. Have a good day all.
zoomster says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 8:57 am
Yes, and none have the apolitical safeguards of our current system, lead to better or more efficient or more effective governance.
Fess
That bears repeating again and again.
Also, if the only person who runs against her is a renown serial killer, she’d probably win too. Oh Jesus, what if they clone her and it’s Pauline Hanson vs. Pauline Hanson? Then she’s a certainty.
They had to set the AZ Alert age limit at 50, because the only case we have had is in his 40s.
Bucephalus says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 9:10 am
N says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 8:57 am
In 1975 we were two weeks away from Postmen, soldiers, sailors and airmen being unable to put food on the table for their families because they would not have been paid.
Yes. That arose because the Senate refused to pass the bills that would have allowed the usual business of the State. The Senate and the Crown – neither of which are fairly elected – used their positions in the Parliament to procure the dissolution of an elected government. This was exactly the exercise of privilege to repudiate the result of the election in 1974.
The proposition that the Crown is apolitical is a myth. It is also a sleight of the constitutional hand..
David Crowe has those special gloves on that allow you to use your phone. 🙂
By your logic we therefore unable to trust the Government to oversea a National Park or anything else.
——————
No. That isn’t an extension of the logic that governments can’t be trusted to allow private enterprise to develop private infrastructure for profit in a national park.
And when these public spaces are developed in this way they are locked up for Only the very wealthy.
Jeez Louise, grab yourself a coffee or a berocca or hair of the dog. I am open to your ideas on wilderness and feral animal control etc but you aren’t making any sense this morning.
Speers is incredibly interrupty this morning. Extremely annoying.
Vic:
The feds had 3 main jobs with Covid response:
– Secure the borders from international arrivals
– Protect aged care residents as the primary funder and regulator of RACFs
– Implement a vaccination program for all Australians
They seriously bungled the first, failed at the second, and have completely botched the last.
😀
Confessions @ #2396 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 9:17 am
So is David Crowe.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 8:59 am
The NYT article didn’t mention that workers feared to vote because Amazon allegedly knew which way they voted.
Well, at least nobody here is acting like The Crown is a documentary. We can count our blessings we’ve avoided that over the discourse of the last two days.
Poor David Crowe can’t get a word in.
Buce keeps defending right wing state parties.
Fess
Lol!
Launceston seems like a very pretty place.
Zoomster:
“For example, the present requirements for Constitutional change are too restrictive and have prevented necessary changes.”
I agree. Minor tidying up should be able to be done by the Parliament, for example sorting out the now unfit-for-purpose Section 44 provisions. I would suggest a super majority of a joint sitting (say two thirds or three quarters). This would require bipartisan support without being subject to veto by a small number of mavericks.
We would still keep referendums. Perhaps some sort of petitioning requirement with a high bar, say 5% of eligible voters (currently about 800,000). We might need to limit these so we that don’t have an annual referendum about certain hot topics, for example abortion (e.g. lost proposals not re-presented for at least 5 years).
… pretty cold …
(edit: double post)
BK (Block)
Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 9:05 am
Comment #2413
Great item ……………
Couple tie the knot in Gothic Cemetery Wedding …
David Crowe puts his finger on it. An announcement is all well and good but it’s delivery that is the important metric.
KayJay
There would have been a quid in it for Centennial Park for sure!
Butler handling this very well.
HOW trump continues to devide the country:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/10/us/politics/kristine-hostetter-capitol.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
In spirit agree with that idea but there needs to be a limit on what that method can do. For instance, it can’t be used to remove democratic rights or change maximum term lengths. Also, any amendment passed by referendum should only be altered or overturned by referendum. I don’t know how you would sufficiently word all that in the constitution but yes the fact that “boring” but necessary technical amendments will not pass because they don’t capture the interest of the population is a real problem with our current setup.
Morrison’s calamitous management of vaccine’s has destroyed public confidence in getting vaccinated.
Karen Andrews should have established local manufacturing infrastructure for mRNA vaccines 12 months ago.
Morrison’s failure will have ongoing ramifications for the economic recovery.
You just can’t trust the Libs as they continue to deliver waste and mismanagement.