Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March

Big movement to Labor in the smaller states in the latest Newspoll breakdowns, but nothing of what might have been expected on gender.

My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).

The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.

It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.

The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.

Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).

You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,852 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March”

Comments Page 48 of 58
1 47 48 49 58
  1. E. G. Theodore says Saturday, April 10, 2021 at 11:32 pm

    I reckon we should get Prince Harry as HM King of Australia, since he’s obviously surplus to requirements and if we have a King then we should have a resident King. However it looks like Canada has first dibs.

    On the plus side the heir to the throne would be a real afront to the white nationalists.

  2. Briefly:

    The difference is sophist and semantic. For clarity, I’m allergic to both deism and theism.

    Logically incoherent.

    The possibilities are:
    – theism – there is a deity, who acts in the world and whose views (and commandments) can thus be known and acted upon, typically known to senior religious leaders and acted upon by by adherent to same religions, with perceived commandments as justification
    – gnosticism – typicaily asserts there is a deity, who however nevers acts in the world, but also a sub-deity, who acts (often malevolently) in the world and that gnostics can however somehow gain direct (but purely personal) insight into the deity’s will (an obvious basis for a religious cult unless the personal confinement is maintained strictly)
    – deism – there is a deity, who however nevers acts in the world, and whose will can thus never be known (nor acted upon as commandments)
    – agnosticism – whether there is a deity is unknown
    – atheism- asserts that there is no deity
    All but theists have the same position regarding general evidence of the (actual) deity’s will, and it is not logically valid for anyone but a theist to be “allergic” to any of the others, simply because there is no effect to which any such person could be allergic (in contrast all the others can be allergic to theism). It follows that one cannot be allergic to deism unless a theist, since a theist cannot be allergic to theism the position claimed is logically incoherent

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Unless you want fifty links to royal family stories, this is all I have for you this morning,

    Jack Waterford writes that most ministers – on both sides of politics – could never imagine working without an (ever-increasing) staff of political operators and minders. He has a good look at how governments work these days.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7202303/morrisons-minders-are-at-the-heart-of-his-doldrums/?cs=14329
    The Prime Minister’s myopic approach to solving problems and his focus on himself is only making matters worse, writes Matthew Butera.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/scott-morrisons-political-motives-have-turned-against-him,14974
    Australia’s faltering vaccine rollout is falling way behind the rest of the world – and that means more bad news posits Cait Kelly.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/04/10/vaccine-rollout-australia-world/
    At some stage Western democracies are going to have to tell the Chinese Communist Party that enough is enough and do so with more than just sanctions against a few individuals. Writes Crispin Hull who calls for western democracies to boycott the Chinese Winter Olympics and be ready with powerful sanctions at the earliest sign of aggression by the Communist Party against Taiwan.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7201951/the-west-must-boycott-chinas-olympics-and-ready-the-sanctions/?cs=14258
    Lian Mannix and Lisa Visentin report that many of the nation’s GPs are refusing to offer AstraZeneca’s vaccine to people under 50 until the federal government clarifies legal liability if patients suffer serious or fatal side effects.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/doctors-stop-offering-astrazeneca-jabs-over-legal-risk-20210410-p57i5f.html
    The state coroner will consider whether a new inquest should be held into the Luna Park Ghost Train fire and has formally asked NSW Police to review its evidence surrounding the blaze that left seven people dead in 1979.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/coroner-asks-police-to-review-evidence-around-luna-park-ghost-train-fire-20210410-p57i44.html
    Rachel Lane explains how taking away the ability to pay a RAD could deliver a financial hit to many aged-care residents but would likely result in a bonanza worth billions of dollars for the government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/flawed-arguments-to-abandoning-aged-care-rads-20210408-p57hkr.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    Matt Golding



    Mark Knight

    Joe Bencke

    Reg Lynch

    From the US


  4. Why is Morrison still the prime minister

    He promised Australia would have enough vaccines

    He promised he would not break the vaccine rollout time table

    He promised Australians would be amongst the first in the world to get vaccinated

    He promised 4 million Australians would be vaccinated by the end of March this year

    He promised majority of Australians would received their first dose by
    October this year

  5. Until the Perth Agreement it was arguable, that under the constitution it was possible for the Australian parliament to choose the successor to the throne.

    I have always favoured Vincent von Schleswig-Holstein-Sonderburg-Glücksburg, who will be some sort of cousin to Phil.

    the 2nd son of our Mary and surplus to need for the Danish royal succession. At least half his genes are Australian and he probably knows more about us than Prince George

  6. Why is Morrison still the prime minister

    He lied about when he knew about the alleged rape of Brittany Higgins

    He lied about wanting Christine Holgate to leave her job

    He lied about the rule of law

    He lied about being serious of treatment towards Women

  7. Why is Morrison still the prime minister

    He lied about when the Australian economy went into recession

    He lied about sports rorts , and every other scandal

    He lied about being honest to all Australians

    He lied about being there for Australians in time of need

    He lied about being a leader

  8. Please BK! Do yourself, and us, a favour! No more Phil the Greek stories!

    ps I think we know what it’s going to be like when Elizabeth Windsor pops her clogs now. Oi vey!

  9. This one is for guytaur and Nicholas Haines:

    Americans sure like checks from the government. Roughly three quarters approve of President Joe Biden’s COVID-19 relief package, not because they’re policy wonks who’ve diligently combed through the finer points and carefully considered the long-term macroeconomic effects but because they’re thrilled to receive $1,400. This is the third time in a year that the government has sent money to people whether they, strictly speaking, need it or not. And while three payments during a world-historical catastrophe hardly qualifies as a universal basic income (UBI), it does feel a bit like an appetizer.

    A UBI—where the government cuts monthly checks to every living citizen, from vagrants to billionaires—got a prime-time public hearing in late 2019 and early 2020 during Andrew Yang’s Democratic primary campaign, but it didn’t entirely fade after Biden cleared the field. Nor is the idea likely to fade after the pandemic subsides. People don’t like losing benefits they’ve gotten a taste of. And problems like income inequality, the long-term hollowing-out of the blue-collar middle class, rising health care and housing costs, rural areas decimated by economic abandonment, the generational chasm separating comfy Boomers from rent-burdened Millennials are not going away when we return to whatever version of normal awaits us.

    The UBI is appealing because it’s not a compromise between the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party that wants the government to pay for virtually everything and the Mitch McConnell wing of the Republican Party that thinks the government should do as close to nothing as possible. It is an idea that scrambles ideological imperatives and existing coalitions—and with the right champions it might finally cleave our ideological Gordian Knot.

    https://thebulwark.com/time-to-take-ubi-seriously/

  10. There’s that B word again. Come on Labor bloody well use it every time all the time , “the botched vaccine roll out” .The spivs showed you how it is done with ‘pink batts’ !
    .

  11. Scott
    While ever the MSM can regurgitate endless stories about Phillip, the Queens husband and still exist as profitable businesses, Morrison PM or any other shonky, having worked their way to the top of the pile of shonks from the LNP can exist and add to their own financial fortune by being PM.
    At this stage Morrison PM has accumulated the financial perks of office and having no depth of character will do as he pleases.
    The vaccine backflip!
    The electorate has so little regard for the gaggle of politicians that almost anything goes.
    Elected officials are paid good money and the voters will still suffer from being presented with monkeys.
    The “establishment” consumed with political hate, will with the help of a complicit MSM and having stacked their footprint across most statutory appointments, hold on to power, however undignified it can become in order to maintain their pre-eminence.
    The trick quite simply is to convince enough of the undecided mob that they are better off with the shonks.
    The franking credit pitch at the last election or the existence of poker machines in Tasmania are two good examples.
    The death taxes imbroglio!
    The overwhelming percentage of the population will never have enough wealth to ‘death tax’!
    The ABC has been reduced to an alternative workplace for privileged overpaid political wannabes, no longer an instrument for honest reporting or a haven for truth.
    The lucky country continues to be that. The fact that Morrison PM remains unchallenged by those from within his own parliamentary party says it all.
    The lucky country is awash with voters prepared to stand for franking credits even if they have no idea what they are.
    The lucky country is awash with voters prepared to allow it the benefits of a fantastic universal superannuation scheme to be eroded because they are convinced by a a duplicitous MSM that somehow they are being ripped-off.
    The lucky country is awash with voters convinced the Unions are not in their interests.
    Ironically, the well paid politicians react with astonishment and indigence, dare anyone suggest a modification to their perks and benefits.
    Howard and Abbott were told by their electorates when the time eventually came around.
    Will the Shire continue to embrace Morrison PM or will the his fellow “libertarians” from Howard’s “broad church” drag Morrison from under the Liberal bed, having exceeded his “used by date” and dispose of him to the outer fishing limits beyond Port Hacking?
    Perhaps the electorate will awaken to the need for a PM, prepared to “hold the hose” with dignity.

  12. Morning all. Thanks BK for the roundup and the wise decision to discretly edit out stories about deceased anglo-greeks.

    The botched vaccine roll-out is surely still the major story of the week. As I was discussing with E G Theodore last night, it would be quite feasible for Australia to set up the capability to manufacture mRNA vaccines in Australia, if it had the political will.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2021-04-11/covid-vaccines-pfizer-astrazeneca-australia-manufacturing/100057572

  13. Thanks BK. Even the residents at the aged care facility yesterday were grumbling there wasn’t anything else on the TV except Prince Philip stories!

  14. Way back last year a number of rw commentators suddenly became concerned about suicides, what with all the covid restictions and all. The numbers are in for the US..
    .
    .

    The number of U.S. suicides fell by an historic 6% in 2020, down from 47,511 deaths in 2019 to 44,834 last year, a new analysis of preliminary CDC data found

  15. Last night’s comments on belief/mythology still has a few missing, but I won’t expand:
    Polytheism
    Henotheism
    Pantheism
    Panentheism/pansubjectivism (the late Charles Birch wrote extensively around this, connecting with a philosophical stance he termed “Constructive postmodernism”)
    The latest – coined in American Theology Faculties where the search for meaning is taken seriously -Polydoxy, as a counter to Orthodoxy
    And the ancient gnosticism was not one but a great variety of religious views. One of these was that there was a single indivisible One, with many “aeons”, of which one was Sophia, who gave birth to the evil demiurge – who then created the Universe!
    It is strange to ponder the nature of a god who would inspire the enlightened to create yet another scripture, but refused to provide a reliable guide to which one was better than the others.

  16. Poroti @7:20. There’s that B word again. Come on Labor bloody well use it every time all the time , “the botched vaccine roll out”…

    Also the C and I words as in “this corrupt and incompetent Government”.

  17. I’m only willing to support a Republic as long as there’s a guarantee that Morrison and his “religious” friends take no part in it.

  18. Confessions @ #2335 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 8:06 am

    C@t:

    I lost track of the number of oldies yesterday lamenting we didn’t become a republic 20 years ago.

    I also see it as a brazen attempt by the Monarchists in Australian society to brainwash us all that the monarchy is still important. Imagine if the news just made a single mention of the passing of Prince Phillip and then moved on to talking about more important matters? What a breath of fresh air that would be! Instead we are told, over and over again, how this antiquated relic of a different time must still be important to us.

    Sorry, but no.

  19. C@t

    It’s not the “monarchists”, it’s the media. The old Duke demanded that there should be no fuss but the moneymakers always go their own way.

  20. If we are to become a Republic then the change should at least be based upon improving our system of governance. I have yet to see such a proposal.

  21. Buce

    Our system of government was largely based on a series of conventions which the present government is demonstrating weren’t worth the paper they weren’t written on.

    At the very least, these could be codified so that we don’t have to rely on the whims of the PM of the day to have these enforced and that whoever is the Head of State has the ability to act when they’re not.

  22. C@t:

    For me nothing sums up how antiquated and out of step with contemporary society the monarchy is better than this photo.

  23. I lost track of the number of oldies yesterday lamenting we didn’t become a republic 20 years ago.

    I’m one of them. The Republic is now much further away than it was in 1991. Even if I were to live as long as Sir Prince Duke, I rate it very unlikely that I will live to see it.

  24. “Amazon warehouse workers in Alabama vote not to form a union”

    “ Of the some 3,117 votes cast in the closely watched union election, a total of 1,798 votes were against unionization, compared to 738 in favor of it, according to the National Labor Relations Board.”

  25. The G has an interesting article on private developments in national parks in Tasmania.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/10/privatising-the-wilderness-the-tasmanian-project-that-could-become-a-national-park-test-case?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I have been a fence sitter on the idea as it could be a win, win, small loss scenario. I have spoken to some ecologists in Tasmania about the generic idea and matched that with my experience of public/private partnerships and come down firmly against the idea.

    we can not trust governments to handle this with good governance and good environmental intentions, we should not trust the civil service and environmental consultants and the profit motive will always outweigh environmental concerns in private enterprise. And these partnerships usually leave the public purse no better off (Thredbo an exception) or simply disappears in lower taxes or slush rather than used to improve environmental outcomes.

    And there is precious little wilderness left to risk it on the profit and luxury of the few.

  26. If private enterprise wants to make money out of wilderness, then they should buy what is currently in private ownership, protect it and do their ecotourism venture. Like the Nature Conservancy and others have done.

  27. Steve777:

    I don’t remember what happened in 1991 but I certainly remember Howard nobbling the republic momentum in 1999.

  28. zoomster says:
    Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 8:29 am

    You are wanting a political role.

    The current highly successful model of an apolitical Head of State acting as a Constitutional circuit breaker should not be discarded lightly and without an effective replacement.

    Do you prefer President Palmer or President Hanson vested with political power?

  29. Do you prefer President Palmer or President Hanson vested with political power?

    Yeah, imagine the kind of messed up system that would see one of those two elected to a public office.

  30. If we are to become a Republic then the change should at least be based upon improving our system of governance. I have yet to see such a proposal.

    There’s much we can do to improve our system of governance without becoming a republic or otherwise changing the Constitution. The Republic (and the Monarchy) are largely symbolic, about how we present the nation to ourselves and to the wider world.

  31. The issues of fine-tuning the system and removing a notable superfluous element are both valid but are ultimately separate questions.

  32. Simon Katich says:
    Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 8:36 am

    By your logic we therefore unable to trust the Government to oversea a National Park or anything else.

    Conservationists are ridiculous when they demand areas be “locked up” because of their natural beauty and inherent qualities and saved for “future generations” but then deny any use except by those who are fit and wealthy enough to access by self-funded and self-powered means.

    And then there’s the self-defeating inept management of our National icons at Ayers Rock and Kakadu (currently hidden behind COVID travel restrictions).

  33. E. G. Theodore says:
    Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 1:10 am
    Briefly:

    The difference is sophist and semantic. For clarity, I’m allergic to both deism and theism.
    Logically incoherent.

    The possibilities are:

    …..endless, it seems. I have a lot of difficulty putting myself in the position of a believer/subscriber because I’m not one. I think the speculations around the existence or nature of a deity are a logical regress. They’re futile. This has always been the case, but that did not stop people becoming subscribers. In the current moment mass subscription to omnibus Zeus packages has been replaced in part with a fascination with celebrities and some spin-offs, including sport. I think these attachments are the same kind of thing. None of them do it for me. I can observe them in others and their absence in myself. Perhaps this is like being colour-blind. I don’t know about that because I’m not colour-blind.

  34. Rational Leftist says:
    Sunday, April 11, 2021 at 8:43 am

    “Yeah, imagine the kind of messed up system that would see one of those two elected to a public office.”

    It’s certainly a possibility under the models proposed by the Republicans.

  35. lizzie @ #2341 Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 8:26 am

    C@t

    It’s not the “monarchists”, it’s the media. The old Duke demanded that there should be no fuss but the moneymakers always go their own way.

    lizzie,
    The media ARE the Monarchists ARE the Monarchist politicians. They all want to maintain the Monarchy gravy train.

Comments Page 48 of 58
1 47 48 49 58

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *