My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).
The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.
It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.
The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.
Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).
You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.
In the Christian Porter matter of historical allegations of rape, the NSW Police were asked a number of questions via their Minister in NSW Budget Estimates. Their responses from para 37 onwards in the attached are enlightening…
https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdocs/other/15459/Answers%20to%20Supplementary%20Questions%20-%20Hon%20David%20Elliott.pdf
dave
I am seeing comparisons between Biden and Reagan. Both old men. Both, perhaps, not shining as bright as they used to (if ever). Both being President while their well selected and talented cabinet make serious changes to economic policy.
Cyclone Seroja brewing off WA coast joined by two tropical lows
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-08/cyclone-off-wa-coast-joined-by-two-other-tropical-lows/100055392
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-infrastructure-poll-idUSKBN2BP126
2022 midterm landslide wins to the Dems.
Rex,
I’m not surprised. According to the ARTBA Bridge Report, 1 in 3 bridges in the USA need repairs or replacement – 40 years work.
https://artbabridgereport.org/
sprocket_ @ #1201 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 1:02 pm
Right, so, do I have this correct? The complainant indicated she wanted to make a statement by telephone or Skype on the 1st of April. The next day NSWPF contacted her and the decision was made to not do this but instead do it in person somehow, sometime. NSWPF say this was a joint decision.
So, did NSWPF make any serious effort after this ‘joint decision’ so meet with her to take the statement?
NSWPF are saying that the complainant notified them in late June (nearly 3 months later)she “no longer felt able to proceed with the report”. And they are hanging their hat on that for not re-evaluating the matter from that day onward to this day.
She did not retract her accusations. She did not say the rape didnt happen. There seems to be some evidence she spoke to people about it in detail. She left other evidence outlining her accusations. Obviously, without her full report to the police regarding an historic alleged crime it makes it very unlikely to expect a conviction. But, for the NSW police to use her lack of proceeding with the report, after what appears to be a delay in getting that report after she indicated she wanted to give it, as the reason to reject further evidence looks to me like head in the sand policing.
It is not good enough to put all the onus on the victim to propel the investigation and efforts to convict. This crime is socially corrosive. It is in societies interest, not just that of the victim, that these crimes get pursued. It may (almost certainly) be that this case would never make it to court, however it is imperative that all effort is given and shown to be given to investigate these crimes rather than finding reasons for not doing so.
Simon Katich @ #1202 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 1:35 pm
But with very different outcomes, aimed for at least.
Simon Katich says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 1:35 pm
dave
I am seeing comparisons between Biden and Reagan. Both old men. Both, perhaps, not shining as bright as they used to (if ever). Both being President while their well selected and talented cabinet make serious changes to economic policy.
——————————
A lot will depend on what happens to inflation because what people forget about Raegan was his economic policy was about cutting inflation so Biden will only be successful if he can generate economic growth without inflation.
Mexicanbeemer @ #915 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 2:20 pm
MB,
This is what the American Fed thinks about that:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/04/07/business/stock-market-today#veterans-stimulus-checks
Eunoe @11:31pm last night
That’s.. pretty damning isn’t it..
Cud Chewer says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 2:30 pm
Eunoe @11:31pm last night
That’s.. pretty damning isn’t it..
Yes.
Complete shoot ourselves in the foot territory.
Not only are all Australians not worth Pfizer or Moderna, the Morrison Government patently didn’t/doesn’t care to offer everyone the possibility.
Morrison is desperately trying to turn the abhorrent behaviour of “born to rule” types on his side of politics, into attaching blame to everybody else in Australia.
Shame about the 127,000 dead before they got their a into g .
.
Covid-19: Britain on track to achieve herd immunity on Monday
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/uk/300272325/covid19-britain-on-track-to-achieve-herd-immunity-on-monday
‘Toxic conditions’: WA Labor staffers ‘bullied’
“Eight women who worked for WA Labor MPs say they were subjected to sexual discrimination and bullying and either lost their jobs or were forced out due to toxic working conditions.
Their Victorian barrister Gerald Grabau says they are considering a range of actions, including possible claims to the WA Equal Opportunity Commission, but will be also making direct representations to the WA government and Labor Party for redress.
“There are elements in there that are clear discrimination in the treatment of women. This is an opportunity for Labor to forge a real new deal with women.”
The women include three former electorate officers from Kalamunda MP Matthew Hughes’ office and one from the office of Deputy Premier and health Minister Roger Cook. One woman is currently fighting her dismissal in the WA Industrial Relations Commission.”
He says it might form a class-action lawsuit focused on the legality of the dismissals and whether they suffered discrimination on the basis that they were female employees.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/toxic-conditions-wa-labor-staffers-bullied/news-story/7d926f284dd8ca32c2f68c254c6130b5
But it’s the LNP that has the problem, apparently.
“He says it might form a class-action lawsuit focused on the legality of the dismissals”
Please don’t – bring separate claims
“But it’s the LNP that has the problem, apparently.”
The Liberals have by far the biggest problem. Assuming that your report is accurate (a big assumption when people like you dissemble and misrepresent at every turn) then the WA government (and the ALP in its own right) has a serious issue to address.
The fact is that Morrison and his flunkeys are desperate to avoid dealing with the problem by trying to pretend that everyone does it (with almost no proof of anything). That is shithouse leadership by any token for a party leader and a Prime Minister. And aping his claims is sickeningly sycophantic followership that does nothing for the issue or the people affected.
The AstraZeneca story gets murkier and murkier. From the Guardian live blog:
Clearly, someone is telling porkies. It looks like it may be both Morrison and AstraZeneca. We never got any AstraZeneca vaccines from the EU – ever – because AstraZeneca themselves didn’t order any on our behalf. Instead, they provided us some stock from the UK. Presumably, they thought CSL would make up the shortfall before anyone noticed, but CSL failed to produce the goods in time. And continues to fail to meet their targets.
And why, given what was known, didn’t we order any other vaccines to meet the shortfall? Why have we stillnot ordered any?
Given the multiple ties between CSL, AstraZeneca and the Liberal party, this reeks.
Clearly, Labor is incapable of doing anything useful. Let’s hope there is an investigative journalist somewhere trying to get to the bottom of this mess.
‘Simon Katich says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 1:35 pm
dave
I am seeing comparisons between Biden and Reagan. Both old men. Both, perhaps, not shining as bright as they used to (if ever). Both being President while their well selected and talented cabinet make serious changes to economic policy.’
This made me wonder what the benchmark might be for the number of decisions a good president might make a day.
I was thinking, once Cabinet team was in place and was working well together, maybe one presidential decision a day.
TPOFsays:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 3:02 pm
“The Liberals have by far the biggest problem.”
How so? You don’t like them isn’t a problem.
Alleged issues within some WA ALP electorate offices most certainly need to be addressed, whether those allegations include a sexual harassment element or workplace bullying. It is tiresome in the extreme for men (from all sides) to continually try to frame this as a political issue.
One element to look at is people getting elected who have little or no actual people management or HR expertise. Suddenly they are managing staff with support, if any, for either them or the staff provided remotely.
Workplace bullying is very easy to claim and equally hard to actually prove. One person’s reasonable request to complete a task or criticism of the work done is another’s example of being bullied. Bullying and discrimination also have quite different definitions.
With electoral office staff in particular there is often a dramatic difference between the perception of what the job will entail and what you are actually asked to do. Combine that with people in high pressure jobs and it is no wonder you get issues arising.
Player One @ #1216 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 3:23 pm
Order? Should have just invested in whatever it takes to produce mRNA vaccines locally, at this point.
I see that we got some more announcements about Morrison agreeing in principle to do something at some time in the future, circumstances permitting.
Now that’s the sort of mealy-mouthed announcement that everyone can get their teeth into.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIto5mwDLxo
a r @ #1221 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 3:28 pm
I’m not an expert, but those who are apparently don’t believe we have the capability.
Gear up for the next pandemic, sure – but it’s too late for this one. I reckon we may have to rely on donations from countries like the UK and USA once they complete their vaccination rollout.
And perhaps from China as well. How embarrassing would that be?
The ABC is reporting the tabling of NSW police responses to questions about the investigation of Christian Porter rape allegations. This includes NSW police not proceeding with a Skype interview offer. Good enough for National cabinet meetings, but not a police interview.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-08/christian-porter-rape-accuser-sought-police-interview/13293494
It is unlucky for Christian Porter if NSW police tardiness prevented the possibility of a victim statement being taken so that Christian could have the possibility of clearing his name of rape allegations in court.
Then there is this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NX45hc0aZt0
‘Roaldan says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 3:26 pm
Alleged issues within some WA ALP electorate offices most certainly need to be addressed, whether those allegations include a sexual harassment element or workplace bullying. It is tiresome in the extreme for men (from all sides) to continually try to frame this as a political issue.
One element to look at is people getting elected who have little or no actual people management or HR expertise. Suddenly they are managing staff with support, if any, for either them or the staff provided remotely.
Workplace bullying is very easy to claim and equally hard to actually prove. One person’s reasonable request to complete a task or criticism of the work done is another’s example of being bullied. Bullying and discrimination also have quite different definitions.
With electoral office staff in particular there is often a dramatic difference between the perception of what the job will entail and what you are actually asked to do. Combine that with people in high pressure jobs and it is no wonder you get issues arising.’
There is simply no excuse for bullying.
ar:
It’s been pointed out that it’s not really feasible to develop that capability, at least within the timeframes originally promulgated. On the other hand, mRNA is going to end up being very nice to have, and given the timeframes have turned out to be “spreadsheetware”, there was probably enough time (now there isn’t, of course).
Mr Morrison = Half Case Discount Warehouse (if anyone remembers them)
If Morrison is so concerned about restoring a culture of respect in Australia, maybe he could start by setting an example in Parliament.
“How so? You don’t like them isn’t a problem.”
Their problem is that they have a bevy of brownnoses like you.
boerwar @ #1226 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 1:37 pm
Who’s excusing it?
E. G. Theodore @ #1226 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 3:40 pm
Yeah, but we’re not getting the AZ vaccines within the original timeframes either.
And that’s the clincher. Might as well have aimed high.
‘Roaldan says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 3:43 pm
boerwar @ #1226 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 1:37 pm
‘Roaldan says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 3:26 pm
Alleged issues within some WA ALP electorate offices most certainly need to be addressed, whether those allegations include a sexual harassment element or workplace bullying. It is tiresome in the extreme for men (from all sides) to continually try to frame this as a political issue.
One element to look at is people getting elected who have little or no actual people management or HR expertise. Suddenly they are managing staff with support, if any, for either them or the staff provided remotely.
Workplace bullying is very easy to claim and equally hard to actually prove. One person’s reasonable request to complete a task or criticism of the work done is another’s example of being bullied. Bullying and discrimination also have quite different definitions.
With electoral office staff in particular there is often a dramatic difference between the perception of what the job will entail and what you are actually asked to do. Combine that with people in high pressure jobs and it is no wonder you get issues arising.’
There is simply no excuse for bullying.
Who’s excusing it?’
Who said anyone was excusing it?
Socrates says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 3:35 pm
“It is unlucky for Christian Porter if NSW police tardiness prevented the possibility of a victim statement being taken so that Christian could have the possibility of clearing his name of rape allegations in court.”
He will get the opportunity if the ABC decide to go to court in the defamation case against them unless the settle prior to that with a public apology.
lizzie says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 3:41 pm
“If Morrison is so concerned about restoring a culture of respect in Australia, maybe he could start by setting an example in Parliament.”
….because the ALP are so respectful? Apparently.
Organisational culture “trickles down” from the CEO, especially in a small org. I don’t see how people will suddenly change because Scotty says they must. Bullying can be as subtle as a tone of voice, or as blatant as the dismissal of all work as unsatisfactory. The LNP gov has been bullying voters ever since it got into power and I doubt that they realise what they have done. With Morrison, Cash, Payne, Stoker and Ruston supposedly speaking for women, it looks like nothing will change if it’s left to them.
Buce
That was unworthy. I was particularly thinking of the way the PM turns his back when Opp MPs are speaking at the despatch box.
Do you really believe that Morrison shows respect to anyone? Be honest.
Amanda Stoker wants clear guidelines on harassment etc. I can see endless opportunities for lawyers coming up.
It is much easier to make messes in cross-cultural situations than it is to untangle the messes. It is easier to lose trust in cross-cultural situations than it is to gain it once lost:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-08/aapa-parks-australia-invite-drop-kakadu-gunlom-court-case/100055888
“….because the ALP are so respectful? Apparently.”
If Incitatus wants the ALP to take the lead, why doesn’t he call for an election now?
The Coalition are in power, even if the only power they exercise is rampant corruption. But then Incitatus thought Caligula was a good guy.
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 1:32 pm
In the Christian Porter matter of historical allegations of rape, the NSW Police were asked a number of questions via their Minister in NSW Budget Estimates. Their responses from para 37 onwards in the attached are enlightening…
https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdocs/other/15459/Answers%20to%20Supplementary%20Questions%20-%20Hon%20David%20Elliott.pdf
____________________________-
I am sure you were more than enlightened sprockets.
TPOF says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 3:41 pm
“Their problem is that they have a bevy of brownnoses like you.”
Aren’t I allowed to support a political party that I ideologically agree with?
There’s a lot pf ALP and Greens brownnoses around here.
TPOF says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 4:17 pm
“But then Incitatus thought Caligula was a good guy.”
WTF?
Incitatus says:
“Aren’t I allowed to support a political party that I ideologically agree with?”
Who said you couldn’t?
lizzie says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 4:09 pm
“Do you really believe that Morrison shows respect to anyone?”
Of course he does – to people and institutions that he respects – just like anyone else.
The turning of the seat away from those opposite while they are speaking happens all the time in Parliament by both sides.
Ita Buttrose would have OK’d the original story. In the current climate she will probably opt to have the matter thrashed out in court.
TPOF says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 4:28 pm
“Who said you couldn’t?”
Calling someone a brownnose is saying that they shouldn’t support something.
citizen says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 4:31 pm
“Ita Buttrose would have OK’d the original story.”
You know this because……..?
There is a common perception that all workplace bullying is top down.
This ain’t necessarily so.
Aren’t I allowed to support a political party that I ideologically agree with?
If you had an ounce of logic and some common sense, you would not!.