Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March

Big movement to Labor in the smaller states in the latest Newspoll breakdowns, but nothing of what might have been expected on gender.

My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).

The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.

It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.

The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.

Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).

You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,852 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March”

Comments Page 24 of 58
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  1. Bucephalus wrote:

    After winning the last election his current position in the Party Room is unassailable.

    Yes, as unassailable as Kevin Rudd’s, Tony Abbott’s and Malcolm Turnbull’s positions were after they won the 2007, 2013 and 2016 elections respectively.

  2. Bushfire Bill @ #1147 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 11:15 am

    This latest brag is so at odds with Reality that members of the public are scratching their heads wondering what they missed so as to get their understanding of the situation so wrong. As for journalists, in order to challenge Hunt, Murphy or Morrison on their phantasmagorical blarney about “record numbers” and denials that promises were ever made, they literally have to accuse them of being liars… something journos who want to stay on-the-drip simply never do.

    That would be the job of the opposition. Then, journalists do not need to call anyone a liar – they can simply report that they had been called liars 🙁

  3. Morrison will end up in same effluent pit as did his two great Liberal predecessors, Howard and Abbott, their own electorates having indured enough bullshit and wind, did the nation a favour.
    One more negative federal poll and perhaps a photo finish in Tassie, will test the rabbit from the Shire.
    Cut and run as is his habit or get flogged at the next election, do a Trump, and say ” I don’t see it that way”
    Anyone see Morrison PM, get to an election next year unscathed ?

  4. Only the inner urban Yappies would want to signal their personal virtue by shooting kangaroos and then letting them rot in the paddocks by the millions. It IS millions, BTW.

    Kangaroo protein is top quality protein.
    Kangaroo skins make top quality leather.
    Let it all rot.
    The kangaroo industry provides employment where employment is scarce?
    Put them on the dole and complain about poverty and the level of the dole.

    The Yappies reside in the inner urban biodiversity wastelands, dispensing omniscience with the usual insufferable ‘ethical’ arrogance.

    yap yap yap

    NFI.

  5. Frydenberg has wisely kept his boasting away from the vaccines space.

    Morrison knows that it is all about knives in the back. There is not a lot of empathy in the Liberal Party room.

    Announce, cut and run. Announce, cut and run. Announce, cut and run.

  6. boerwar

    I do not understand the reluctance to make use of a sustainable, healthy source of protein.
    Whoever created Skippy has a lot to answer for.

  8. Humpback whales back to 90% of their pre-hunting numbers?

    Humpback whale numbers 20 times higher than they were at the lowest ebb?

    Population trend one of increase?

    Well, keep them on the threatened list just in case, cos the Yappies are in town.

  9. boerwar

    Announce, cut and run. Announce, cut and run. Announce, cut and run.

    Can’t blame them. With a tame media and a public which seems to have the memory of a goldfish it has worked a treat ………..until now.

  10. ‘lizzie says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 11:35 am

    boerwar

    I do not understand the reluctance to make use of a sustainable, healthy source of protein.
    Whoever created Skippy has a lot to answer for.’

    Skippy? I reckon they should dump the corpses of a hundred thousand starved kangaroos inside the lentil belts of Yappiedom. The necrophages alone would boost the biodiversity something horrible.

  11. @10NewsFirst
    · 1h
    MPs will be subject to the “same law as anybody else” as the government moves to see sexual harassment become a valid reason for dismissal. #auspol

    Cash is talking rubbish. How will they pass a law authorising the parliament to remove an MP from the parliament? A politician either resigns or the constituents vote for someone else at the next election.
    Look at Laming, Porter…

  15. lizzie @ #1161 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 9:39 am

    @10NewsFirst
    · 1h
    MPs will be subject to the “same law as anybody else” as the government moves to see sexual harassment become a valid reason for dismissal. #auspol

    Cash is talking rubbish. How will they pass a law authorising the parliament to remove an MP from the parliament? A politician either resigns or the constituents vote for someone else at the next election.
    Look at Laming, Porter…

    It would have to be an automatic disqualification, otherwise it would just become a tool of the Government.

    That raises the question of whether an amendment to the Constitution would be required.

  17. Barney

    If a PM had courage and principles, he/she would simply demand the MP’s resignation. Others have done it, but Scotty? No way.

  18. ‘Jaeger says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 11:43 am

    The dingo fence from space: Satellite images show how these top predators alter the desert

    Dingoes eat kangaroos, and kangaroos eat grass. So on the side of the fence where dingoes are rare, there are more kangaroos, and less grass cover between sand dunes. This has important flow-on effects for the ecosystem in the region.

    https://www.space.com/dingo-fence-from-space-satellite-images‘

    One of my moments of near despair was when I was involved, peripherally, in an attempt to boost the chances of the Eastern Barred-bandicoot not becoming extinct by relocating some captive bred creatures in a certain conservation park. Three things HAD to happen for the re-introduction to be successful: fox control, cat control and the maintenance of dense low and tangled vegetation. To achieve the latter, kangaroos had to be stopped from over-grazing the veg. This meant keep the kangaroo population below a certain number by killing the excess.

    The animal rights people scuppered the project. Nope. Not allowed to kill the kangaroos.

  19. I didn’t know all of these.

    @BelindaJones68
    · 18h
    Replying to @UrbanWronski and @mandyjane
    Perhaps @Anne_Ruston would like to ask Jenny Morrison why she has been known to ‘hide behind’ the pseudonym “Poppy Alice”?
    Or Amanda Stoker hiding behind the pseudonym “Mandy Jane”
    Or Angus Taylor, he’s got multiple Facebook accounts too

    I’d say most pollies do

  21. lizzie @ #1167 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 9:49 am

    Barney

    If a PM had courage and principles, he/she would simply demand the MP’s resignation. Others have done it, but Scotty? No way.

    It’s the problem when politics is the only game in town.

    We have degenerated to a position where issues are not debated on there merit, but whether they present a political advantage and the perception created.

    One problem is that the CPG is largely more interested in this game than actual policy detail, so they focus on it.

  23. I see the government is finally introducing the amendments to the Sexual Discrimination Act recommended by Kate Jenkins a year ago. Great. But why include politicians and judges under the Act now?

    Only a few weeks ago Zali Steggal proposed legal changes in a private members bill that would have had this same effect, plus close other loopholes, and the government voted it down. Internal polls must be bad.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-08/cph-government-responds-to-respect-at-work/100055070

  24. Bushfire Bill says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 11:25 am
    __________________________
    I feel your posts should come with a Donald Trump style Twitter warning, maybe something like:

    “WARNING: This poster is a men’s rights advocate who just doesn’t get it”

  30. lizzie @ #1169 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 11:53 am

    I didn’t know all of these.

    @BelindaJones68
    · 18h
    Replying to @UrbanWronski and @mandyjane
    Perhaps @Anne_Ruston would like to ask Jenny Morrison why she has been known to ‘hide behind’ the pseudonym “Poppy Alice”?
    Or Amanda Stoker hiding behind the pseudonym “Mandy Jane”
    Or Angus Taylor, he’s got multiple Facebook accounts too

    I’d say most pollies do

    See? Morrison was right! Social media is to blame!

  34. I doubt whether the Cabinet even understands what sexual harassment is.

    Ewin Hannan
    @EwinHannan
    ·
    11m
    One of Kate Jenkins’ important recommendations – introducing a positive duty on employers to take reasonable steps to eliminate sexual harassment – has only been “noted” by government. It will assess if change will create more complexity/uncertainty. Don’t bet on it happening.

  35. You don’t need a Constitutional change to make sexual offences trigger automatic loss of Parliamentary seat.

    The Constitition already provides that convictions for any offences (including presumably sex-related offences) that even potentially carry a penalty of more than one year make the MP ineligible thereafter.

    One would presume that serious traffic offences would also come under the same section of the Constitution.

  36. Morrison caught outright lying again …

    Earlier the prime minister was asked about a report from Guardian political correspondent Sarah Martin today which showed Laming awarded a $550,000 grant to a rugby club with links to one of his staff members as part of the government’s controversial female sports facilities grants program.

    Morrison claimed that “rants aren’t decided by members of parliament,” but are instead decided by the department.

    So it wouldn’t be right to put it the way you have put it.

    But as Sarah has pointed out that is simply not the case, according to the department, as the grants were allocated as part of election commitments, and was not open to applications.

    This means the department did not assess applications as Morrison suggested, but instead they were nominated by the government

    And the opposition said …

  37. Australian health regulators must now decide whether young people should be given the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, after UK authorities decided that under-30s should be given alternative jabs.

    Overnight, the UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) recommended that Pfizer or Moderna jabs be offered to the under-30s due to a very low risk of blood clots they believe could be connected to the AstraZeneca product.

    While they aren’t certain of a link, they say the evidence is “firming up”.

    Australian health regulators must now decide whether young people should be given the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, after UK authorities decided that under-30s should be given alternative jabs.

    Overnight, the UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) recommended that Pfizer or Moderna jabs be offered to the under-30s due to a very low risk of blood clots they believe could be connected to the AstraZeneca product.

    While they aren’t certain of a link, they say the evidence is “firming up”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-08/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-not-given-to-under-30-uk-blood-clots/100054824

  40. “The ABC has apologised to Alice Springs deputy mayor Jacinta Price for airing multiple radio segments that accused her of spreading “racist vitriol” and “hate speech”.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/abc-issues-apology-to-jacinta-price-for-hurt-and-distress-over-defamatory-speaking-tour-broadcast/news-story/8dd5ab904e0d84136d692c470d792a0e

    Good to see the ABC are consistent in their attacks on Conservative women – no racism there – if you are the wrong type of political female then it’s game on.

    So very pleased for Jacinta to have a win against the forces aligned against her.

    No evidence of the apology on the ABC Websites that I can find, yet.

  41. Just back from our GP. Busy outer suburban practice.
    No covid vaccine and the receptionist thought it would be a another couple of weeks before they had supplies again. Not taking bookings until they have some supplies.

    Very poor communication from the Feds by the looks of it.

    We got the Flu jabs out of the way.

  42. Laughtong

    Good to have the flu shots now and give yourself enough space in time before embarking on Covid shots. That is provided scomo and co manage to get the vaccines out to clinics in a timely manner. Sigh…..

  45. Morrison doubling down, admiting failure to suppy vaccinations –

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has queried whether supply of COVID-19 vaccines in Australia could currently sustain mass vaccination clinics.

    “If the supplies are not in place, then you can have as many stadiums as you like,” he said.

    “You can have as many distribution points as you like. You can have the fastest trucks in the universe, but the supply will determine the pace of the vaccine rollout and there are a lot of variables when it comes to supply.”

    “I just want the community of NSW to know their government is prepared if we get a supply of vaccines that we can get [them] out to the community,” sthe Premier told reporters in Sydney.

    The Prime Minister also defended communication about the vaccine rollout, after NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard accused his government of giving information to the media before the states.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/pm-questions-mass-vaccination-clinics-as-berejiklian-says-plan-needs-federal-support-20210408-p57hg0.html

  48. New Zealand suspends entry for travellers from India due to high COVID-19 cases

    WELLINGTON (Reuters) – New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on Thursday temporarily suspended entry for all travellers from India, including its own citizens, following a high number of positive coronavirus cases arriving from that country.

    The suspension will start from 1600 local time on April 11 and will be in place until April 28, Ardern said in a news conference. During this time the government will look at risk management measures to resume travel.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-newzealand-india/new-zealand-suspends-entry-for-travellers-from-india-due-to-high-covid-19-cases-idUSKBN2BV0AE?il=0

  49. Morrison doubling down, admitting failure to supply vaccinations –

    As close as he would ever let himself get to admitting a stuff up. 🙂

  50. Biden’s Tax Plan Aims to Raise $2.5 Trillion and End Profit-Shifting

    The plan detailed by the Treasury Department would make it harder for companies to avoid paying taxes on both U.S. income and profits stashed abroad.

    On Wednesday, the Treasury Department released the details of Mr. Biden’s tax plan, which aims to raise as much as $2.5 trillion over 15 years to help finance the infrastructure proposal. That includes bumping the corporate tax rate to 28 percent from 21 percent, imposing a strict new minimum tax on global profits and cracking down on companies that try to move profits offshore.

    The plan also aims to stop big companies that are profitable but have no federal income tax liability from paying no taxes to the Treasury Department by imposing a 15 percent tax on the profits they report to investors. Such a change would affect about 45 corporations.

    “Companies aren’t going to be able to hide their income in places like the Cayman Islands and Bermuda in tax havens,” Mr. Biden said on Wednesday. Biden administration officials say that law increased the incentives for companies to shift profits to lower-tax countries, while reducing corporate tax receipts in the United States.

    Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, in rolling out the plan, said it would end a global “race to the bottom” of corporate taxation that has been destructive for the American economy and its workers.

    “Our tax revenues are already at their lowest level in generations,” Ms. Yellen said.

    Full story –
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/07/business/economy/biden-tax-plan.html

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