My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).
The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.
It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.
The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.
Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).
You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.
Unlike some LNP politicians in Australia, although a Republican pollie from Alabama initially denied having an ‘sordid affair’ but within hours apologised for having it
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2024873
Why did it need to be Cash to respond. Why couldn’t Porter respond to the report? Not a priority?
Thanks Lizzie. Definitely true.
The Yappies are at it again. If they get what they want tens of millions of Australian kangaroos will periodically starve to death in miserable end-of-life conditions. But hey. Let’s signal our virtue. Yap yap yap.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-08/us-ban-commercial-shooting-kangaroo-leather-football-boots/100050994
lizzie@9:44am
“Is it Labour’s fault’
Don’t you know that.
‘in principle’ means ‘not in practice’.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. I see many in media and politics are onto the obvious lies our PM Liar McLiarface has been telling about vaccines.
Was VaccineGate a deliberate ploy to divert attention from the multiple rape allegations damaging McLiarface’s government? Or was it simple garden variety incompetence or corruption? So many plausible theories why.
And I still haven’t seen any explanation of why our expected number of Pfizer vaccines shrunk from 10 million to 1 million. The smaller Pfizer order is not sufficient to vaccinate all the category 1A and 1B members in the population.
‘boerwar says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 9:49 am
The Yappies are at it again. If they get what they want tens of millions of Australian kangaroos will periodically starve to death in miserable end-of-life conditions. But hey. Let’s signal our virtue. Yap yap yap.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-08/us-ban-commercial-shooting-kangaroo-leather-football-boots/100050994‘
If forgot to add that this is official Greens policy as well.
We are a fair and democratic country……….in principle.
‘poroti says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 10:00 am
We are a fair and democratic country……….in principal.’
Show me the money?
“ We are a fair and democratic country……….in principal.’”
So are North Korea and China. There are lots of Democratic People’s Republics around the world 🙂
Have a good day all.
I’ve been trying to find the link but apparently there are some companies in the digital economy space and who are trying to solve their men problems are apparently less than somewhat less than totally thrilled to have Porter as their minister.
Socrates
The ‘missing’ 9 million ? NZ stole them 🙂 Early March they signed up for 8.5 million extra Pfizer. Come to think of it, it may actually be what happened . As you mention Scott was big on options rather than firm orders. Perhaps 1 mill. was firm ,9 mill. options. NZ jumped in with firm order for what was allocated to this region.
‘Socrates says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 10:04 am
“ We are a fair and democratic country……….in principal.’”
So are North Korea and China. There are lots of Democratic People’s Republics around the world
Have a good day all.’
China has socialist democracy with ‘special chinese characteristics’. It’s on their official outlets. I am not sure what ‘socialist democracy’ means in China but the ‘special chinese characteristics’ boil down to a murderous, genocidal and totalitarian despotism.
We need more announcements.
boerwar
No need, we’ve already reached ‘heard immunity’ for announcements.
‘poroti says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 10:10 am
boerwar
We need more announcements.
No need, we’ve already reached ‘heard immunity’ for announcements.’
*hearty laughter*
poroti @ #1118 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 10:10 am
It’s the side effects of these announcements that worry me – cynicism, outrage and despair.
I’ve decided to become an anti-announcer and stop listening!
boerwar @ #1108 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 10:00 am
Or signal your virtue back by humanely culling them without selling the carcasses for profit. Nothing anywhere says you can only cull a kangaroo if some overseas company pays you for it. If what you care about is animals not dying inhumanely, as US boycott is neither here nor there.
I have announcement cancelling headphones.
Player One
Especially the bloody clots, they are the only ones still listening.
Apart from the salacious “Daily Mail”, I haven’t seen any other media reports on Morrison’s slip of the tongue yesterday when he referred to Mr. Hunt as “Mr. C…”. I guess this is fair enough. When you’re under the pressure Morrison is, it’s common to take it out on an underling. If he subsequently refers to Hunt as the “lying Mr. C…” we’ll know he’s completely lost the plot.
And I still haven’t seen any explanation of why our expected number of Pfizer vaccines shrunk from 10 million to 1 million. ?
All the Big wigs got their “Safe” Pfizer shot including Morrison and family?.
and the other one is cheaper!.
Mavis
The ‘slip’ perhaps an indication that behind the scenes his ‘colleagues’ also refer to him as such.
The federal government will amend the Sex Discrimination Act to include MPs, judges and public servants who are currently exempt.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the change on Thursday morning as part of the response to the Respect@Work report which it received in January 2020.
“It all starts with disrespect. That’s where it starts. I would argue not just disrespect towards women, disrespect full stop. We’ve got to be careful in our society that we don’t allow the reservoir of respect to drain, and I fear it is,” Mr Morrison said.
The landmark report from Sex Discrimination Commissioner Kate Jenkins was released publicly last March. It made 55 recommendations aimed at shifting from a complaints-based system that puts a heavy burden on victims to one where employers must proactively stamp out sexual harassment and create safe workplaces.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/federal-government-announces-overhaul-to-sex-discrimination-act-backs-all-55-recommendations-20210408-p57hf2.html
poroti@10:00 am
“We are a fair and democratic country……….in principle.”
Scott Morrison recently said I. Parliament ” such marches, even now are met with bullets”
https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/13251804?amp_js_v=a6&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQHKAFQArABIA%3D%3D#aoh=16178418126782&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2021-03-16%2Fbullets-women-march-4-justice-scott-morrison%2F13251804
lizzie @ #1113 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 10:04 am
Gish Gallop
Description: Overwhelming an interlocutor with as many arguments as possible, without regard for accuracy or strength of the arguments. This is especially disingenuous when the interlocutor is not allowed to interrupt and address the arguments, as in formal debate or in writing. To the spectator unfamiliar with this strategy, the interlocutor’s inability to accurately respond to all the claims in the given time is fallaciously seen as a “win” for the Gish Galloper or appears to lend credibility to the arguments made when in fact it does not.
😮😮😮😮😮
When Morrison says that he has studied the report, does he mean that he has read the outline but not read the full report?
Mavis,
The Guardian included it in their live feed yesterday:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/apr/07/australia-news-live-vaccine-astrazeneca-scott-morrison-european-union-women-domestic-violence?page=with:block-606d46d58f08098d4e056d6f#block-606d46d58f08098d4e056d6f
poroti:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 10:26 am
[‘Mavis
The ‘slip’ perhaps an indication that behind the scenes his ‘colleagues’ also refer to him as such.’]
Yes. It’s been fairly well documented that Morrison’s
collegial support is very soft. In fact, I think I can hear the phones ringing. Josh, Pete please stop undermining your Dear Leader.
“ Or signal your virtue back by humanely culling them without selling the carcasses for profit.”
Why shouldn’t we sell the carcasses for profit? The reason why there are plague proportions of kangaroos in the first place is a profit driven industrial scale clearing of the native woodlands and industrial scale development of bores and dams for the commercial exploitation of livestock.
The profit aspect of kangaroo culling merely mitigates the total cost of exercise.
In my view animals should not be wasted. Where possible their carcasses should be used. In my view it is disrespectful to do otherwise.
Jaeger:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 10:34 am
[‘Mavis,
The Guardian included it in their live feed yesterday:’]
Thanks. I hadn’t seen the actual presser where he made the unfortunate reference.
Mavis @ #1122 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 10:22 am
No media to speak of regarding his lying in relation top Watchgate either.
Mrs Mundo, last night; ‘when will he get his comeuppance…?’
Mundo; ‘..likely never..’
It was also on the Guardian blog yesterday. They included a video clip from twitter of Morrison uttering the word in question. I posted the link to the Guardian piece but couldn’t copy the video clip.
I notice the only left leaning current affairs/news programme on Australian telly, The Weekly, last night started a new segment called ‘What’s Albo Up To’
(sigh)
Mavis says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 10:35 am
“It’s been fairly well documented that Morrison’s collegial support is very soft.”
Really? Where?
After winning the last election his current position in the Party Room is unassailable.
mundo
Anthony Albanese has this for you
https://twitter.com/AlboMP/status/1379707503882104834
mundo @ #1137 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 10:44 am
You laugh until you cry 🙁
On another note
Gladys and her cronies are once again joining in with Labor state governments this time with the Victorian government scathing attack on Morrison and his cronies
they do not know how many of their residents have been vaccinated by the federal government.
mundo
“I notice the only left leaning current affairs/news programme on Australian telly, The Weekly, last night started a new segment called ‘What’s Albo Up To’
(sigh)”
Ummm…. so The Weekly is a comedy show. (So is Mad as Hell.)
I know in the current political environment it is often difficult to distinguish news from satire. But The Weekly definitely belongs in the latter.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1132 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 10:37 am
The point is more that whether or not we can profit from it shouldn’t be the determining factor in whether or not we treat animals humanely.
If you can make a profit off it, fine. If you can’t, that doesn’t mean you should (let alone must) treat animals inhumanely.
Sure, but if animal welfare is the goal then the total cost is fairly beside the point. Bullets aren’t particularly costly anyways.
We could all probably benefit from eating more kangaroo, yes. Lean, locally available, non-imported protein.
lizzie @ #1100 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 7:46 am
I would have thought it meant;
While accepting there is an issue, we have no desire to act on it.
Ontario, Canada has gone into lockdown again. Looks like Doug Ford is very slow with getting jabs into arms…
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/6/canada-facing-very-serious-third-wave-of-pandemic-trudeau
Turns out the ostensible excuse for them getting the jab(s) early – as proof there were few, if any side-effects, this no risk getting vaccinated – was bullshit. We now know the A-Z side effects and efficacy are miles behind Pfizer, so comparisons are as irrelevant as comparing apples with oranges.
And as for his family getting the jab: no excuse at all, especially TWO jabs before 98% of the rest of us have had our first.
Morrison has been running off at the mouth disastrously since he became PM. Remember his election-winning “Back In Black” boast? He was specifically asked at Budget time in 2019 whether he was worried about anything going wrong, including natural disasters that would prevent his claimed 2020 Surplus. He contemptuously dismissed any such idea. Then the worst bushfires in history, dovetailed with COVID, occurred. His excuse for no Surplus: “Unforseen circumstances”. Nodding media heads and stroking of journalistic beards all ’round.
Everything he says is uttered, not so much as a deliberate lie (although that is, of course, possible), but pretty much completely without prudence or due diligence, careless as to whether it is actually true, false, or could be falsified one day. This is because he knows he can spin his way out any future complications by inventing another boast of good times, but always good times ahead.
A more recent example is the recent brag by Hunt and Murphy that they are still “confident” of their October vaccination deadline, albeit with a more modest goal than everyone originally thought (ie. one jab instead of two). Coupled with their other brag – that not only are they not concerned about the low numbers of vaccination to date, but they are in fact thrilled at the record numbers of vaccinations they are achieving – the Big Lie is in full effect.
This latest brag is so at odds with Reality that members of the public are scratching their heads wondering what they missed so as to get their understanding of the situation so wrong. As for journalists, in order to challenge Hunt, Murphy or Morrison on their phantasmagorical blarney about “record numbers” and denials that promises were ever made, they literally have to accuse them of being liars… something journos who want to stay on-the-drip simply never do.
lizzie @ #1146 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 9:15 am
I thought the only limitation to respecting someone, was for them to act in a way that they longer deserved it.
Barney
Well, Morrison no longer commands my respect.
I notice that the superior smirk is rarely in evidence now. Karma!
Some interesting stats – ’35 best countries to raise a family’ –
https://www.asherfergusson.com/raising-a-family-index/
Australia rates highly for health and education.