My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).
The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.
It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.
The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.
Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).
You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.
All local AZ supply should be shipped to PNG and other areas where the virus is out of control and killing the population.
We can wait for mRNA vaccines from the states, just need to get the supply boosted. All Morrison needs to do is get on a call with POTUS. This may be too much hard work for slomo.
One thing he’ll be dreading is news clips from NZ once they start getting their Pfizer supply.
A fast and will run NZ rollout could be hugely damaging to Morrison and perhaps give him some pause sticking with the current az strategy.
Scott @ #1049 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 6:25 am
Yes it shows typical Scott Morrison always seeking to deflect and make excuses, never accept responsibility.
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 7:12 am
meher baba,
Have you thought of joining the fray yourself? You’d make an outstanding MP, I reckon.
________________
So do i. Is the best poster on here by a country mile. Am a massive fan.
Thanks, BK
Katina Curtis reports that more than 230 domestic violence services are asking the nation’s women’s safety ministers to give them a decisive funding boost as they face a massive increase in demand that is not subduing.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/pandemic-s-domestic-violence-spike-has-not-subsided-20210406-p57gui.html
Morrison should rent an immediate 200 units a week per service to made available to each of the 230 services for emergency accommodation. That is 46,000 units. The cost to the Feds would be around a billion a year.
States would need to provide additional program implementation support of another half a billion (much of it rebadged from existing support) and legislate for declaration of legal no go zones for declared males of around 2km around the declared safety units. This would save millions of words. Practical. Immediate. Just do it. Just physically separate the people who are being hit from the people who want to keep hitting them. (I’m getting sick of the anodyne ‘domestic violence’ as well. I prefer ‘hitting’ and ‘bashing’.)
Scots are impressed with Sir Keir and Blue Labour. SNP and Greens surging.
“My projection based on the latest @IpsosMORI poll:
SNP: 70 (+7)
Green: 12 (+6)
Conservative: 24 (-7)
Labour: 19 (-5)
Lib Dem: 4 (-1)”
Biden to nominate ATF director and announce new executive actions on guns
(CNN)President Joe Biden plans to announce new executive actions on guns on Thursday, a person familiar with the plans said, fulfilling a commitment he made in the aftermath of two deadly shootings last month.
The extent of Thursday’s announcement, which was first reported by Politico, wasn’t immediately clear, and the White House did not elaborate.
“I expect the President will have more to say tomorrow,” press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters during a daily briefing Wednesday.
Biden said last month following a mass shooting in Colorado, “I don’t need to wait another minute, let alone an hour, to take common sense steps that will save lives in the future.”
Ghost guns are handmade or self-assembled firearms that don’t have serial numbers. The action would officially classify them as firearms, therefore requiring a background check, according to administration officials.
The move would be in line with recommendations from gun safety advocacy groups who are consulting with the White House.
The administration had also been considering action in other areas, including to alert law enforcement agencies when someone fails a federal background check.
Gun control advocates say background check alerts could potentially flag troubled or criminal individuals who are trying to access weapons.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/07/politics/biden-executive-actions-guns/index.html
UK Cartoons:
Ben Jennings on the Tories’ flag-waving distraction from Covid toll:
Brian Adcock: There is nothing to fear but fear itself, and covid #astrazenecavaccine #bloodclots #BorisJohnson :
Patrick Blower on Keir Starmer for Hartlepool By Election:
Guy Venables on BritishWeather and EasingLockdown:
Christian Adams on #AstraZeneca #EasingLockdown:
Martyn Turner on Northern Ireland’s outburst of violence:
Peter Brookes on a third wave of Covid:
PAUL THOMAS on a third wave:
An Article about a Telegraph cartoonist pushing covid conspiracies:
https://t.co/oZ9xqo5LRB?amp=1
The golden rule of being a cartoonist is to not bad mouth other cartoonists especially if they work with you on the same newspaper!
‘Sohar says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 8:35 am
Scots are impressed with Sir Keir and Blue Labour. SNP and Greens surging.
“My projection based on the latest @IpsosMORI poll:
SNP: 70 (+7)
Green: 12 (+6)
Conservative: 24 (-7)
Labour: 19 (-5)
Lib Dem: 4 (-1)”’
The Scots are not impressed with the English or with Brexit. Full stop. Given these trends it is difficult to believe that the UK will survive another decade.
Another twist to the vaccine saga – why the secrecy?
Mr Morrison, WHICH 3.1m AZ doses “did not arrive” and precisely WHY did they not arrive?
Myanmar ambassador says he’s locked out of London embassy in ‘coup’
London (CNN) Myanmar’s ambassador to the UK said he has been locked out of the London embassy in what he described as another “coup.”
Ambassador Kyaw Zwar Minn — who last month broke ranks with his country’s military junta — told CNN he tried to gain access to the embassy on Wednesday for several hours but was unable to enter.
Several of his staff were still inside the building, and were not being allowed out, he also said.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/07/uk/myanmar-embassy-london-intl/index.html
Surprise, surprise, study indicates that Jan6 insurrection happened because of racism and white resentment.
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2024696
citizen @ #1060 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 8:39 am
That should be put on a plane to PNG immediately.
I agree Cuomo needs to go, but I’m unsure Rudy’s son is the best alternative.
https://www.axios.com/andrew-giuliani-new-york-governor-ffb19d50-7b9d-48b8-b3a7-0a5226dd7714.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_content=politics-newyorkgovernor
Another black single mother gets elected to another big US city, St. Louis.
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2024827
As far as I know this is 3rd black woman elected to a big US city. Others being Chicago, Atlanta.
Greenland’s leftwing anti-mine party wins snap election
Inuit Ataqatigiit secures 37% of votes, and leader calls for halt to uranium mining project at Kvanefjeld
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/07/greenlands-left-wing-anti-mine-party-wins-snap-election
At the heart of the election was a proposed international mining project by Greenland Minerals, an Australia-based company with Chinese ownership, which is seeking a licence to operate the Kvanefjeld mine in southern Greenland.
BK @ #1061 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 8:40 am
Please clarify – should we be including AZ doses that we didn’t actually order?
Messaging tip for Albo:
Keep working at simplifying your wording as much as possible. Improved, but can still do better.
Example: instead of saying “we have been saying for a long period of time…”
just say “we have been saying for a long time…”
Its just the little things that can make the difference between punters staying tuned in and them tuning out. Homework task is to study Bill Shorten’s punchlines (not his zingers though). He had it down pat by the end.
Ven @ #1066 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 8:14 am
Two Democrat candidates running off in that. And the Republican candidate a distant 4th. St Louis a democrat oasis in the republican desert?
Please clarify – should we be including AZ doses that we didn’t actually order?
_____
P1
That is the very essence of the first question!
ThanksBK for the Dawn Patrol.
and
Thanks also to Zerlo for the UK Cartoons.
From the BK Files 👇👇👇
Perhaps women have better BS detectors and realise that the tsunami of lies from the Federal Gummint plus the current clots stories being promoted is creating a disincentive.
I have a vaccine appointment on Saturday 24th April at 8 A.M. Oodles of time for the Gummint position to change several times.
*********************************************
In a field one summer’s day a Grasshopper was hopping about, chirping and singing to its heart’s content. An Ant passed by, bearing along with great toil an ear of corn he was taking to the nest. … Then the Grasshopper knew: It is best to prepare for days of need.
The moral of a story is the lesson that story teaches about how to behave in the world. Moral comes from the Latin word mores, for habits. The moral of a story is supposed to teach you how to be a better person. … If you have a strong moral character, you are a good member of society.
What’s that lot about ❓ Not much and the Gummint seems to be neither the Ant nor the Grasshopper.
Therefore — another cup of coffee. ☕
NSW’s Health Minister has made an astonishing claim about how the Morrison government is handling the vaccine rollout, revealing he learns more from the media than the Federal government itself.
Health Minister Brad Hazzard appeared in ABC’s 7.30 last night where he lifted the lid on exactly how poorly communication around the rollout is being handled.
“7.30 is a very good program, Leigh. Very good program. We do get a lot of our information from you. I think it reflects the fact that the Federal Government are obviously struggling with trying to do the right thing by the community in New South Wales and indeed Australia,” he said.
Mr Hazzard also reiterated claims that NSW has been left in the dark over how many vaccine doses it will receive each week, making planning appointments and follow up shots incredibly difficult.
Democrats win another state wide Wisconson election 52-48
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2024869
In a nutshell
Cheryl Kernot
@cheryl_kernot
·
22h
Telling Australians to temper their expectations!! Morrison, as usual, was the one who boasted about Australia being at the head of the queue, about bloody “sovereign” capacity of home manufactured vaccine of 1 mill a week by now! His “announceables” strategy biting on the bum.
Simon Katich@8:54am
HOR seat based on St. Louis city is the only seat Dems won from Missouri.
The media keep asking why this government is so secretive about the vaccine rollout. Where have they been for the past decade? This government’s habit, their natural stance, is to be secretive. On everything. If it’s not information that’s to their advantage, they won’t release it unless forced. They want to control public discourse. Silence is their first tool at hand.
Will Morrison be asked re the astra zeneca announcement made in the UK overnight
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/07/under-30s-in-uk-should-be-offered-alternative-covid-vaccine-to-astrazeneca-jab-says-regulator
Like Mafia boses, GOP is telling its donors that they will tell Trump if they do not donate monthly
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2024874
I think Morrison’s motor mouth- in Parliament, in press conferences and interviews is starting to bite him now…..always was a dangerous long term strategy.
Howard, for example, only ever said the absolute minimum so as not to trip himself up….he very rarely got caught out by errant comments.
Suddenly Scotty reveals that his Cabinet has frequently studied the Respect for Work report and has already adopted many of the recommendations in principle. Lots of weasel words here.
This Spanish guy is really twisting the knife on Brexit. Funny.
https://twitter.com/UKGovtGoogles/status/1379163654973628417?s=20
ProMo with his serious face and catch in his voice for the sexual harassment announcement.
🙄
Society is to blame.
NewsFlash: sexual harassment should be stopped before it starts.
Pukka@9:23 am
For what?
Torchbearer:
Howard was a master at covering his arse. One of the things that made him such a successful politician was that he was actually very self-aware of his own shortcomings.
Morrison, by contrast, seems to believe he’s the smartest guy in the room and that he can talk his way out of anything. Much of his own goals have been a direct consequence of that. Turnbull had a similar problem.
Gawd! Michaelia Cash is just unbearable!
BK@9:30 am
What’s new?
BK
R U pining for we know who?
What does agreement “in principle” actually mean?
Weasel words indeed.
Speaking of consequences – When is someone going to ask the whereabouts of the alleged rapist of the alleged lying alleged cow?
lizzie @ #1078 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 9:13 am
Morrison has been written off before. Just a week or two ago people were saying the same about the various sex scandals. What happened? Before that it was jobrorter. Before that it was sports rorts and other pork-barreling. Before that, the bushfire fiasco. Before that, water and drought mismanagement. So many scandals you soon lose track.
Morrison’s only talent seems to be surviving scandals that would bring any other politician to their knees – often, by creating an even greater scandal.
The problem is that it doesn’t matter how bad things get, there seems to be no-one capable of holding this government to account. Labor (and Albanese in particular) are just completely hopeless at doing this.
So he could survive this latest crisis as well 🙁
Boerwar
Norty!
Avalanche of bullshit time.
Whale = charismatic megavertebrate = brains out of gear.
There is not much use having robust processes for listing and delisting if the data is going to be ignored. It just devalues the entire system.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-08/removal-of-humpback-whales-from-threatened-species-list/100050268
Morrison saying thy didn’t do much about Respect at Work “Not on one occasion did that come up in Question Time”.
So it’s Labor’s fault for not asking!!