Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March

Big movement to Labor in the smaller states in the latest Newspoll breakdowns, but nothing of what might have been expected on gender.

My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).

The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.

It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.

The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.

Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).

You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,852 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March”

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  1. Albanese is apparently aware that things need a bit of a shake-up. From the Guardian live blog …

    There have been some changes in staffing in Anthony Albanese’s office that might be of interest to any political nerds out there.

    The shake-up sees the promotion of two women into Albanese’s circle of closest advisers – his so-called “leader’s executive”, which has been without a female voice since the controversial departure of Sabina Husic last year.

    Liz Fitch has been promoted to the position of director of media, while Matthew Franklin will take on the role of senior press secretary.

    The switch in roles will see Fitch sit on Albo’s executive team, while Franklin will spend more time on strategy, speechwriting and parliamentary tactics, along with his usual journo-wrangling.

    The Opposition Leader’s office is also bringing in fresh talent, hiring Katie Connolly as strategic communications special adviser.

    Connolly, who starts in Albanese’s office next week, was lead pollster for US Democrat Pete Buttigieg “Pete for America” campaign, and previously worked as a pollster and researcher for Barack Obama.

    Connolly will be the team’s strategic communications special adviser as Albanese sharpens his pitch to voters in the lead up to the election.

    Let’s hope we finally start to see some spark from him.

  2. Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 4:32 pm
    TPOF says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 4:28 pm

    “Who said you couldn’t?”

    Calling someone a brownnose is saying that they shouldn’t support something.
    ______________________________

    I’m totally contemptuous of your contributions here. But that does not abrogate your right to stick your nose where you like.

  3. Lol @ Bucephalus
    trying to get onto the front foot , but Morrison and his cronies are so far on the back foot, nothing will get the coalition supporters onto the front foot

  4. Speaking of brown-noses.
    Dogs have an excellent sense of smell. So why then do they need to jam their noses right up into the butts of other dogs? Cant they do it from a distance? Even a few inches or so?

  5. boerwar

    Yes, you’re correct abut the different levels of bullying. But in the case of a broad misogynist culture, I think we can blame the blokes in charge.

  6. Player One
    Not sure how useful the US person comms will be, great tho their CV is. So much subtle political/cultural signals and symbolism that would fly there would mean nowt here.

  7. Great news mes amis.

    Channel 10 TV News

    Mr. Whatsisname and the Attorney General Ms. (help me out here BK) talking about the “Sex at Work Report”.

    I either wholly, in principle or in part believe the Gummints response.

    Goodnight all. 📺💤

    P.S. There was an earlier report Ch 10 News about the fastest trucks in the univers – not clear if these trucks are electric or not.

  8. Anthony Albanese
    @AlboMP
    ·
    6m
    Women want a government that’s on their side. Here’s what a Labor Government will deliver.

    Three great reforms and a juicy Howard-esque cash bribe to the urbs.

    Very appealing to the many, not the few.

  9. Shout out to Cricket Australia for not touring South Africa re covid concerns but letting 18 players go to India including players missing commitments here.

  10. Simon Katich @ #961 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 5:02 pm

    Speaking of brown-noses.
    Dogs have an excellent sense of smell. So why then do they need to jam their noses right up into the butts of other dogs? Cant they do it from a distance? Even a few inches or so?

    From my experience they like to do it to humans as well. Maybe they like the aroma?

  11. Morrison talking on Ch 10 news. Apparently women have a much greater chance of serious complications from the contraceptive pill than from AstraZeneca.

    Interesting that ‘happy clapper’ Morrison chose that example. Presumably it ties in with the RW religious obsession with sex that isn’t solely for procreation. Promiscuous teenagers and all that.

  12. I see Morrison and Cash were today attempting to profit off of Kate Jenkins hard work.

    Many viewers squirmed and recoiled at the sight of them, I’m sure.

  13. SK

    Poor old Mitch. One of an elite band of players (two I think) who have played 100+ times for OZ for more losses than wins.

  14. Another day, another secretive handout to consultants. McKinsey’s good fortune grows as Australia’s vaccine woes worsen
    The blue-chip consulting firm has secured millions for advice on all things vaccine.

    Multinational consulting firms are making millions from Australia’s botched vaccine rollout but the details of their work have been shrouded in secrecy thanks to a long-standing tradition of outsourcing work to the private sector. But the critical nature of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, now described as an “unmitigated disaster” by some experts, has put their role in the spotlight.

    PwC, which in December was declared by Health Minister Greg Hunt as Australia’s “lead partner” in the rollout, will not even confirm whether it is still involved in the rollout. The consulting firm has refused to give any details about its work, saying it doesn’t comment on “client matters”. The health department has also refused to clarify whether PwC is still involved in the rollout.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/04/07/mckinsey-consulting-vaccine-rollout/

  15. citizen @ #1261 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 4:57 pm

    Morrison talking on Ch 10 news. Apparently women have a much greater chance of serious complications from the contraceptive pill than from AstraZeneca.

    Interesting that ‘happy clapper’ Morrison chose that example. Presumably it ties in with the RW religious obsession with sex that isn’t solely for procreation. Promiscuous teenagers and all that.

    The BBC have used the example as well. Only they seem to suggest the risks (AZ v pill) are about the same. Not surprising he choses to over egg the data wrt this comparison.

    So the risks of a clot for those taking a contraceptive pill seem, at first glance, to be in a similar ballpark to the risks potentially linked to the AZ vaccine, but we can’t know for sure with the data we have.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-56665396

  16. Sam Connor
    @criprights
    ·
    Apr 7
    I keep coming back to this document, leaked by someone at the #NDIS and I’m just distraught that the scheme we had fought so hard for has been broken.

    I’m sitting down the end of a table from @billshortenmp with members of the SA disability sector – we all share this view.

  17. Just wondering if Uhlmann or Coorey happened to ask about the federal ICAC legislation today …?

    Govt corruption is very important to eliminate, I’m sure they’d agree..

  18. citizen @ #1261 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 5:27 pm

    Interesting that ‘happy clapper’ Morrison chose that example. Presumably it ties in with the RW religious obsession with sex that isn’t solely for procreation. Promiscuous teenagers and all that.

    Woah! Non-procreational sex is unquestionably bad. It might lead to dancing.

  19. The health of jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny is deteriorating and he is beginning to lose sensation in his legs and hands, his lawyer says.

    Vadim Kobzev said Navalny, who is in a penal colony serving a sentence for embezzlement, had been diagnosed with two spinal hernias.

    Last week, Navalny started a hunger strike to demand proper treatment for acute back and leg pain.

    The White House said reports that his health was worsening were disturbing.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56671117

  20. From reading the answers supplied by NSW Police, they did not proceed with their enquiries because:

    ● Absent a formal statement from the complainant, there was no direct evidence that any crime at all had been committed,

    ● The complainant had specifically notified the NSW Police that she did not wish to proceed with her complaint,

    ● The complainant explicitly stated she did not want her family involved,

    ● Letters from the complainant’s friends are not evidence. They are second-hand (hearsay) versions of the same complaint that had already been discontinued at the complainant’s request.

    Bludgers may find this difficult to accept, but unlike robberies, murders and other crimes where there is usually evidence independent of a complainant’s statement that a crime was committed (eg. a blown safe, or a dead body), in the case of this particular alleged sexual assault the only evidence at all was the complaint itself, and an informal complaint at that.

    If the only other indications that a crime had been committed were hearsay statements from her friends essentially repeating the complaint that had already been withdrawn, then the cops had nothing to go on.

    If there had been someone in the room maybe, or peering through the window from across a college courtyard who witnessed the rape, or perhaps some kind of forensic evidence that intercourse had taken place at some stage (whether with or without consent would be the next thing to prove) then that would be the kind of independent evidence that police might use to continue the investigation, even after “Kate” had requested discontinuation, and even after she had died. But neither was the case.

    There comes a time where the cops’ hands are tied. You just can’t mount a million dollar investigation plus prosecution without some kind of real evidence that would convince a jury to convict, and then survive an inevitable High Court appeal if by some fluke they did.

  21. A rabies-like virus that can kill humans has been discovered in South Australian bats.

    SA Health has issued a warning to people heading outdoors to avoid any contact with bats, after it was confirmed that two recent exposures in the state last month involved bats carrying Australian Bat Lyssavirus.

    The SA’s Department for Health and wellbeing’s communicable disease control branch director, Dr Louise Flood, said the latest exposures were the third time in SA that ABL had been confirmed in bats, with the first detected in 2012.

  22. “We’ve got to be careful in our society that we don’t allow the reservoir of respect to drain.” –
    @ScottMorrisonMP

  23. Bushfire Bill says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 5:47 pm

    Or just NSW POLICE ARE CORRUPT and always supported the liberal party.

    The fact that they didn’t proceed with it stinks to high heaven.

    convienant excuses “the women died and withdrawn the complaint”

    How fucking lazy.

  24. Some colleagues and I had our first dose of the Pfizer COVID vaccine at the Princess Alexandra Hospital in Brisbane today. We can have the second dose 21 days or more after the first dose.

    I was surprised that Pfizer was being administered today because when some other colleagues went to the QE2 Jubilee Hospital a few weeks ago for their first dose it was AstraZeneca that they received.

  25. From reading the answers supplied by NSW Police, they did not proceed with their enquiries because:

    The headline is that the woman told the NSWPF she wanted to make a complaint report via phone or skype on April1. NSWPF spoke to her on April2 and the result was to not go ahead with the complaint report via phone or skype but to do it in person.

    Over 2 months later the NSWPF say the woman “no longer felt able to proceed with the report”. Not being able to proceed with the report is very different to withdrawing the complaint or not wanting to proceed.

    So 3 things,
    What took place in that April2 conversation to change the womans mind and then what took them so long to arrange an in person interview? And should they have reopened the case and investigate more thoroughly when more information came to light.

    Yes, the police may well have wanted an in person interview in order to assist the complainant in what was a difficult situation for her. And they may have delayed for the same reasons. Yet this woman made it clear she wanted to proceed with a phone in or skype report.

    Pursuing rape allegations is in the public interest, not just the interest of the victim. How police handle accusations and initial contacts from victims is an important thing to get right and I would hope the police are open to considering if their actions on this was appropriate or could be improved on.

  26. BB

    “the only evidence at all was the complaint itself, and an informal complaint at that”

    I don’t want to go down this track again. But I must pull you up on this. Your statement is simply not correct. There is a thing called the best evidence rule. Her diary is evidence, for example. The comments of her friend Hooke is evidence. As a start, have a look at this case: Weissensteiner v The Queen.

    I respect your opinion BB. And please don’t think I am overly critical of you. I just want to add my view above.

  27. Zerlo says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 5:59 pm
    Bushfire Bill says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 5:47 pm

    Or just NSW POLICE ARE CORRUPT and always supported the liberal party.

    The fact that they didn’t proceed with it stinks to high heaven.

    convienant excuses “the women died and withdrawn the complaint”

    How fucking lazy.
    _____________
    You say lazy, scott screams deep state conspiracy

  28. Strange for Scott Morrison to hold a press conference at 7:15pm tonight

    at this time of night it normally held for a leadership spill or Prime Minister resigning

  29. Nicholas

    It’s probably appropriate that people working with disadvantaged communities receive Pfizer or ar least something without a twelve week gap due to elevated risk of containment failure in these communities.

    Good on whoever made the decision

    What I still can’t understand is why blood cancer patients—many of whom appear to be completely unprotected until after the second dose—are not automatically getting a short gap vaccine, I.e. Pfizer. It’s not like there’s a huge number thereof.

  30. Bushfire Bill ties his ‘evidence’ in support of doing nothing about historical rape allegations against Christian Porter up in a nice little bow, with his false equivalencies and ignorance of cases, as Lynchpin points out, which may prove that which is inconvenient to his case.

    However, his case is not a logical follow on from, well, if there’s no way you can prove it, then it’s best left alone to gather the dust of history.

    No, we are talking about the former Attorney General of the nation and whether he is a fit and proper person to be a Member of Parliament, and the preponderance of evidence from a variety of sources and documented situations, suggests he isn’t.

    You don’t walk away from the fit and proper person test for MPs because there is no living, breathing accuser around to run a case against him for the most egregious of the crimes of which he has been accused. What you do have to do is give people the right to present their stories, it’s the least you can do if there is no possibility of a trial on the most egregious allegations, so that his electorate can be fully informed and then let them be the jury of his peers at the next election.

    Or he could do the right thing, as Andrew Laming eventually did, and declare he won’t be standing at the next election.

    It’s the only fair outcome for all concerned, alive or dead.

  31. Oh dear.. bullshit artist caught with pants down..

    The Australian Electoral Commission has asked Facebook to provide information about dozens of pages operated by Andrew Laming, as Labor calls for the government to cut ties with the besieged MP.

    Guardian Australia understands the AEC’s legal services team made contact with Facebook on Thursday morning as it began its investigation into a slew of pages operated by Laming under the guise of community and news groups without political disclosures.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/08/andrew-laming-investigation-electoral-commission-wants-information-from-facebook

  32. Scott says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 6:49 pm
    Strange for Scott Morrison to hold a press conferences at 7:15pm tonight

    at this time of night it normally held for a leadership spill or Prime Minister resigning

    He’s going to display the curry he just cooked for Jen and the girls?

  33. Sceptic @ #1000 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 6:54 pm

    Oh dear.. bullshit artist caught with pants down..

    The Australian Electoral Commission has asked Facebook to provide information about dozens of pages operated by Andrew Laming, as Labor calls for the government to cut ties with the besieged MP.

    Guardian Australia understands the AEC’s legal services team made contact with Facebook on Thursday morning as it began its investigation into a slew of pages operated by Laming under the guise of community and news groups without political disclosures.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/08/andrew-laming-investigation-electoral-commission-wants-information-from-facebook

    What I want to know is how many other federal Coalition MPs have been doing it?

    I know for a fact our local MP has at least one facebook page masquerading as a community information page.

  34. All would be sweet by now if it wasn’t for Credlin settling old scores…

    ‘Some men have told the ABC they feel the unresolved allegations have put several people under an unfair cloud of suspicion.

    They say this was exacerbated after Tony Abbott’s former chief of staff Peta Credlin alleged orgies had been held inside Parliament House.

    In the hours and days after the desk masturbation video emerged, several ministers expressed their fury. Finance Minister Simon Birmingham warned anyone found to have committed lewd acts would be sacked.

    “The actions of these individuals show a staggering disrespect for the people who work in Parliament and for the ideals the Parliament is supposed to represent,” he said.

    However, after some of the men alleged to have been involved in sexual acts denied the allegations and the revenge porn claim was made, the government has appeared to be much more cautious in its public comments.

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