Creeping greenery

The latest on federal election timing, preselections and the Greens’ big ambitions.

Sundry recent developments relevant to the next federal election, whenever that may be:

• A report by David Crowe of The Age/Herald relates that a) unidentified Liberals are “saying privately that a poll in the first months of 2022 is most likely”, and that b) the Greens are about to identify nine House of Representatives seats they will be targeting, and believe they would have won the inner Melbourne seat of Macnamara at the last election if the newly published draft boundaries had been in place. The latter propose tidying the electorate’s eastern boundary as a straight line down Williams Road and Hotham Street, which would remove Caulfield and its surrounds and add large parts of Prahran and South Yarra. My own estimates are perhaps a little less favourable for them, indicating a 2.0% boost in the Greens vote to 26.3%, still astern of Labor on 30.7% (down 1.1%) and the Liberals on 36.7% (down 0.6%). Josh Burns comfortably won the seat for Labor in 2019 after the Greens were excluded.

• Marion Scrymgour has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for Lingiari, which covers the Northern Territory outside of Darwin. Scrymgour served in the Northern Territory parliament from 2001 to 2012 and as Deputy Chief Minister from 2007 to 2009, and has more recently been chief executive of the Northern Land Council. The Northern Territory News reports other candidates for preselection included Matthew Bonson, who served in the territory parliament from 2001 to 2008; Jeanie Govan, a town planner; and Rowan Foley, chief executive of the Aboriginal Carbon Foundation.

• The New South Wales Greens have preselected David Shoebridge, who has held a seat in the state upper house since 2010, as lead Senate candidate for the next election. AAP reports Shoebridge won a ballot of 2263 party members ahead of Amanda Cohn, the deputy mayor of Albury, and Rachael Jacobs, a lecturer in creative arts education at Western Sydney University.

• Shortly after reports indicating former Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson would seek preselection for the Nationals’ position on the New South Wales Coalition Senate ticket, The Australian reports Fiona Nash is keep to recover the position, which she lost in 2017 after being disqualified on grounds of dual British citizenship under Section 44. Also identified as a potential candidate is former state party director Ross Cadell.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,422 comments on “Creeping greenery”

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  1. N says:
    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 6:58 pm

    Hey N do yourself a favour, don’t make a suggestion that I am shameful and a coward of which I am not.

    I am simply putting your and others that the west are no different and look in the mirror of what they are doing themselves.

    Upon reading back a few years, I recall the BBC and other media outlets called the camps ‘thought transformation camps’ and now it’s totally different name now, all this since Donald Trump has taken power in the last 4 years.

    So fuck you if you want to call me shameful or coward, that is weak and pathetic, all I have to say since is there is not enough evidence.

    All other information has been biased, mislead, politicalized, and other nonsense.

    I haven’t turned a blind eye to the issue, but all the information is politicalised.

    So name calling others will not win you favored just make you more weak.

  2. Zerlo says:
    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 7:15 pm

    …I have to say… there is not enough evidence.

    This is false. Read the document prepared by Essex Court. It is authoritative and thorough-going.

    In the meantime, I will stick with my judgment. You are an apologist for a tyrant. By your denial and your attempts to distract, you betray the people of China and every principle of justice. Xi and the CCP are carrying out genocide of the Uyghur and other crimes against humanity.

  3. KayJay
    Marchin’ thru’ Georgia
    2nd verse which for some reason is no longer sung

    Hurrah! Hurrah! we bring the jubilee![N 2]
    Hurrah! Hurrah! the flag that makes you free!
    So we sang the chorus from Atlanta to the sea
    While we were marching through Georgia.

    How the darkeys shouted when they heard the joyful sound
    How the turkeys gobbled which our commissary found
    How the sweet potatoes even started from the ground
    While we were marching through Georgia.
    (Chorus)

  4. Laming (when admitting to serial upskirting): “You can’t blame me; at the time I upskirted 300 women, I hadn’t had the appropriate training. I can’t have been expected to know that this was not acceptable behaviour, without – and here’s the crucial point – relevant guidance from the PM’s Empathy Team“.

  5. Asha Leu says:
    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 7:33 pm
    If Andrew Laming seriously cannot compregend why people are taking issue with him for stalking, harrassing, and doxxing several of his constituents for years on end, including SECRETLY PHOTOGRAPHING THEM WHILE HIDING IN THE BUSHES, he is either a total fucking idiot, a total psychopath, or both.

    He is without shame. Shame is something worn by the weak. And he would not see himself as weak. He would regard himself as being deservedly invincible, and his misogyny as a mere amusement….something of no consequence.

  6. Upon reading back a few years, I recall the BBC and other media outlets called the camps ‘thought transformation camps’ and now it’s totally different name now

    Um.

    In what universe is anything called a “thought transformation camp” ever a good thing?

    What would your reaction be if the Morrison Government announced they would start sending lefties to “thought transformation camps”? Would you want to be sent one of these camps? What do you think this “thought transformation” would entail, anyway?

  7. This talk about James “The Amazing” Randi, presented to the National Capital Area Skeptics, may be of interest.

    Remembering Randi – presented by Banachek

    This talk will be about Banachek’s lifetime relationship in the skeptical movement with James Randi, how they met, Project Alpha, the Peter Popoff exposé, the Million Dollar Challenge and everything in between. The relationship was complex and eclectic. Stories that have never been told before will be revealed – the life of the greatest skeptic ever through the eyes of one of the Alpha kids who is now the President of the James Randi Educational Foundation.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqeL30DyCv4

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Randi

  8. Promo reckons there is nothing he can do about Laming, ‘cause it’s up to the voters.

    In the adjoining seat a few years back, Pauline Hanson was the endorsed Liberal candidate – and through the intervention of John Howard – she was disendorsed for racist comments.

  9. So what was the Laming upskirting story? Any Queenslanders see the story?
    If true, that is going to blow up big…. Being a creep is one thing but being a sneaky pervert creep is much worse.

  10. Zerlo says:
    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 7:44 pm
    N says:
    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 7:23 pm

    Tories control the courts in the Uk, uk is mostly run by right wing parties.

    The document was prepared and published by Essex Court. This is not a “court” – a judicial body – but is a chamber consisting of independent barristers and their clerks. It is absolutely not an instrument of the UK State.

    https://essexcourt.com/

    About Essex Court Chambers

    Essex Court Chambers is a leading set of barristers’ chambers, specialising in commercial and financial litigation, arbitration, public law and public international law.

    Members of Chambers are recognised specialists in all areas of commercial law and handle disputes across the full spectrum of the business and financial world, including banking & finance, civil fraud, corporate/chancery & offshore, insurance & reinsurance, energy, trade, shipping, revenue, and employment.

    The barristers at Essex Court Chambers advise and act in disputes both in the UK and worldwide. They have a reputation for exceptional talent, top-class advocacy …

    They include some of the foremost lawyers in London. They are beyond reproach. They include the best lawyers in England trained in international law.

  11. Sprocket you can’t sack an elected MP. It’s a different situation when the person is an unelected candidate.
    All Morrison can do is ask the QLD LNP to cancel his membership.

  12. This empathy talk is political correctness gone nuts. Lets call a spade a spade. Morrison doesnt give a stuff for anyone that doesnt pander to his needs. He may not be Trump level nasty. He may well offer loyalty to those who have given him agency, like his family, but that doesnt mean he cares.

  13. Asha Leu @ #3259 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 7:12 pm

    Upon reading back a few years, I recall the BBC and other media outlets called the camps ‘thought transformation camps’ and now it’s totally different name now

    Um.

    In what universe is anything called a “thought transformation camp” ever a good thing?

    What would your reaction be if the Morrison Government announced they would start sending lefties to “thought transformation camps”? Would you want to be sent one of these camps? What do you think this “thought transformation” would entail, anyway?

    Re-educations camps have a distinct historical meaning in China. They were death camps. Use them for targeting large sections of an ethnic minority, you then have genocide.

  14. Also, at the risk of invoking Godwin’s Law, I might add that “thought transformation camp” sounds remarkably similar to the sort of weasel words the Nazis originally used to describe their own concentration camps.

  15. Tories control the courts in the Uk, uk is mostly run by right wing parties.

    Just keep moving those goalposts.

    Go back to finding some dumb random group of American conservatives saying something stupid and using that as a false equivalence to state authoritarianism and genocide.

  16. Oakeshott Country @ #3255 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 7:23 pm

    KayJay
    Marchin’ thru’ Georgia
    2nd verse which for some reason is no longer sung

    Hurrah! Hurrah! we bring the jubilee![N 2]
    Hurrah! Hurrah! the flag that makes you free!
    So we sang the chorus from Atlanta to the sea
    While we were marching through Georgia.

    How the darkeys shouted when they heard the joyful sound
    How the turkeys gobbled which our commissary found
    How the sweet potatoes even started from the ground
    While we were marching through Georgia.
    (Chorus)

    Fun for all with this totally appropriate board game…..

    Hurrah! Hurrah!

    Goodnight all. 📺💤

  17. Anaesthetists need no more activation than hearing the words.

    An emergency Caesar is freaky scary. You’re running against the clock. Two lives are involved, at least one at risk of death, which is why it’s on. Everything you do is a step closer down that path. The mother has to be asleep or pain free, by various weighted options, and the cardiovascular effects of achieving that alone plays havoc with placental blood flow, and foetal viability. The mother needs to lie supine, further compromising blood flows and pressures, has delayed gastric emptying and risks inhaling gastric acid, and so it goes, before the knife even makes the first cut.

  18. Re-education camps….facade used by Stalin and Pol Pot

    Pol Pot just gave a lot of people a free trip to the country. I don’t know what everyone is complaining about. A lot of wage-slaves in the so-called “free” West would do anything to have an opportunity to get away from their jobs like that.

    (Note: The above is drenched in sarcasm, lest anybody accidentally take it at face value)

  19. B S Fairman I can’t find anything on the alleged upskirting other than a series of posts on Twitter no related to any news site. It may be typical false news.

  20. RL,

    That sounds a bit like stories of women in Saudi Arabia complaining that they don’t get driven around now that they can get a licence for themselves.

    So much for freedom, eh!?

  21. Godwin’s law doesn’t really apply when the topic of discussion is actually relatable to the Nazis. It’s more about when it’s a debate over something benign like mandatory seatbelts and eventually it gets to “Oh, so if you were in 1930s Germany, you’d totally listen to the Government and lead your Jewish neighbours to the death camps if they told you it’d make everyone safer!” comments.

  22. RL,

    That sounds a bit like stories of women in Saudi Arabia complaining that they don’t get driven around now that they can get a licence for themselves.

    So much for freedom, eh!?

    ‘While the woke male westerners all yell “Yass Kween!” as their wives all have to take long, lonely drives to their gruelling jobs in the bombs factory, I bet those women would be secretly envious of their Saudi sisters, if they knew how easily they had it and how much responsibility falls entirely upon the men in their households. The Saudis are the real feminists but you don’t hear about that through the right wing western media who need us to hate the Arab world so we support oil wars!’

  23. Player One says:
    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 6:40 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #3234 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 6:31 pm

    So the EU blocked AZ shipments to Australia – according to SoKrates and PL1 that is somehow the governments fault?

    Fortunately CSL (privatised by Labor for 400m now worth billions) has an indigenous manufacturing capacity.
    So, the government were relying on 4 million doses (actually 8 million if you need two doses) of the AZ vaccine being imported from the EU to meet their promise?

    Odd that they didn’t actually order that many then, isn’t it? Or is that the EU’s fault too?
    ________
    I believe it was 10m of the Pfizer and 50m of the AZ.

  24. They were called Gulags in Stalins Russia. Labour camps. Not sure if Stalin even bothered with spinning them as re-education. I have read the death toll was 10% each year. People did leave these places if they survived their sentence term (as many did in Maos China camps).

    You could argue (sorta) that nobody has saved more lives than Khrushchev when he ended the brutal policies of Stalin.

  25. zoomster @ #3280 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 8:10 pm

    Itza

    Glad I didn’t know that at the time!

    You weren’t meant to zoomster! Sounds like everything went well? Maintaining the calm with a heart rate competing with the foetus is part of the challenge.

    I’ve been meaning to say I loved reading about your house, and building, which totally resonated with me.

  26. “B.S. Fairman says:
    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 7:53 pm
    So what was the Laming upskirting story? Any Queenslanders see the story?
    If true, that is going to blow up big…. Being a creep is one thing but being a sneaky pervert creep is much worse.“

    I remember news reports of men being jailed for the sorts of acts mentioned. – especially if they take photos.

  27. Itza

    Well, the baby’s 26 now and I had another one ‘naturally’, so I think I survived…

    On the house – showed some old friends around it today. I didn’t realise that my hubby’s idea of using ordinary plywood sheeting as flooring was all his own. We were all very scornful to begin with, but it looks great.

  28. Yes tricot – you do know the uk started vaccinations 4 months ago? And they have millions affected by COVID?

    I feel there has been something of the night about labor’s response to COVID. Outbreaks in liberal states have been a source of delight and the eu seizing Australian shipments seems to have also excited the pollbludger commentariat. Whilst the Victorian outbreak was a heroic effort by Dan andrews.

    COVID has been trying for all governments and should be above politics.

  29. lizzie @ #3198 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 2:21 pm

    Sarah Hanson-Young
    @sarahinthesen8
    ·
    8m
    Hang on… now Scott Morrison says he had offered to speak to Brittany about the assault PRIOR to her resigning. What?!
    For 6 weeks he’s insisted to the parliament he didn’t know anything until after it had been aired by the media, weeks later.
    The cover up is unravelling….

    What a tangled web we weave….

  30. Um – it was SHY who said the PM should speak to B.Higgins.

    Bizarro that SHY would be outraged that the PM wants to speak to B.Higgins.

  31. zoomster @ #3291 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 8:25 pm

    Itza

    Well, the baby’s 26 now and I had another one ‘naturally’, so I think I survived…

    On the house – showed some old friends around it today. I didn’t realise that my hubby’s idea of using ordinary plywood sheeting as flooring was all his own. We were all very scornful to begin with, but it looks great.

    I’m a good friend of plywood. We’ve got plywood ceilings in the main room, and I reckon it looks pretty good, with up-lighting from the walls, warm golden glow sort of thing.

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