Creeping greenery

The latest on federal election timing, preselections and the Greens’ big ambitions.

Sundry recent developments relevant to the next federal election, whenever that may be:

• A report by David Crowe of The Age/Herald relates that a) unidentified Liberals are “saying privately that a poll in the first months of 2022 is most likely”, and that b) the Greens are about to identify nine House of Representatives seats they will be targeting, and believe they would have won the inner Melbourne seat of Macnamara at the last election if the newly published draft boundaries had been in place. The latter propose tidying the electorate’s eastern boundary as a straight line down Williams Road and Hotham Street, which would remove Caulfield and its surrounds and add large parts of Prahran and South Yarra. My own estimates are perhaps a little less favourable for them, indicating a 2.0% boost in the Greens vote to 26.3%, still astern of Labor on 30.7% (down 1.1%) and the Liberals on 36.7% (down 0.6%). Josh Burns comfortably won the seat for Labor in 2019 after the Greens were excluded.

• Marion Scrymgour has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for Lingiari, which covers the Northern Territory outside of Darwin. Scrymgour served in the Northern Territory parliament from 2001 to 2012 and as Deputy Chief Minister from 2007 to 2009, and has more recently been chief executive of the Northern Land Council. The Northern Territory News reports other candidates for preselection included Matthew Bonson, who served in the territory parliament from 2001 to 2008; Jeanie Govan, a town planner; and Rowan Foley, chief executive of the Aboriginal Carbon Foundation.

• The New South Wales Greens have preselected David Shoebridge, who has held a seat in the state upper house since 2010, as lead Senate candidate for the next election. AAP reports Shoebridge won a ballot of 2263 party members ahead of Amanda Cohn, the deputy mayor of Albury, and Rachael Jacobs, a lecturer in creative arts education at Western Sydney University.

• Shortly after reports indicating former Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson would seek preselection for the Nationals’ position on the New South Wales Coalition Senate ticket, The Australian reports Fiona Nash is keep to recover the position, which she lost in 2017 after being disqualified on grounds of dual British citizenship under Section 44. Also identified as a potential candidate is former state party director Ross Cadell.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,422 comments on “Creeping greenery”

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  1. As part of their degree, I think all undergraduates should undergo a compulsory unit on how to best treat the marinalised, minorities, and women. For most, this would come as second nature but for some, it’s obvious that they look down their nose at those who haven’t been as fortunate in life as them – I’m thinking here of Porter, Tudge, Laming, and quite a number of others.

    It’s far too late now to expect these types to mend their entitled ways by undertaking a course in empathy. I mean it’s verily ridiculous for Morrison to expect Laming to change his errant ways at his age. This is just window dressing, designed to placate a seemingly never-ending line of mostly women who have been on the receiving end of reprehensible, and in some cases criminal conduct.

    Porter, for example, was brought up to think he was very special, a WA and Commonwealth Attorney, touted as a future prime minister. Yet if the anecdotal evidence is to be believed, few checks were placed on his behaviour from a young man to a 50-year-old cabinet minister. He’s now no doubt contemplating how it’s gone so terribly wrong. I’ll tell him. As the senior lawyer in this country, his conduct should’ve been beyond reproach, not trawling bars late at night, in an intoxicated state, looking for a root. With high office comes commensurate responsibilities – which he’s failed to uphold. He is the architect of his own undoing.

  2. Abbott threaten to sack any member of the liberal/nationals who voted for the same sex marriage or who takes the speaker’s role during the hung parliament

  3. Hang on… now Scott Morrison says he had offered to speak to Brittany about the assault PRIOR to her resigning. What?!
    For 6 weeks he’s insisted to the parliament he didn’t know anything until after it had been aired by the media, weeks later.
    The cover up is unravelling….

    Did he seriously say this? Surely a consummate bullshit artist like Scomo knows how to keep the basic details of his bullshit straight, right?

  4. Itza and Zoomster, an Architect friend of mine did most of his internal walls and flooring in marine grade ply. Looked fabulous! Architects !!! His plumbing choices disapointed me though!

  5. Outside left (and other plywooders):

    Itza and Zoomster, an Architect friend of mine did most of his internal walls and flooring in marine grade ply. Looked fabulous! Architects !!! His plumbing choices disapointed me though!

    For walls:
    – What veneer? What grade(s)? [A inside/B out?]

    Ceiling?

  6. Asha Leu says:
    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 8:50 pm
    Come on, Lars, you know full well that’s not the point.
    ________________________________
    I understand the point you think it is – but I don’t think that will be the point. Whatever Morrison is I doubt very much he would so stupid to be caught up in such an obvious lie – I didn’t know – to I knew.

    Laming is another matter.

  7. Morrison doesn’t have the power to force Laming out of parliament, but he absolute can use his status as party leader to push for his disendorsement and expulsion from the party, and any sane leader would be doing exactly that in these circumstances.

  8. Gareth:

    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 8:51 pm

    [‘Mavis. University is far too late for that. This is a year 6-7 thing, for those who haven’t ‘got it’ already.’]

    Ideally yes. But I’m not sure at that age whether it would sink in, something like sex education. But let’s say they do learn something at a young age. This needs to be reinforced at a more mature age.

    Don’t get me wrong, I like everyone made mistakes as a young man. I guess I was lucky to have been in the Forces from a young age, where discipline was at the forefront. I didn’t make too many mistakes after the age of around 25 whereas Porter, and others are making them in their 40s & 50s, and to make it worse some of them are senior ministers.

  9. Its a shame Today tonight doesn’t exist anymore – imagine the stakeouts in Canberra in Manuka and various pubs n clubs. blocks of flats etc.

  10. I wonder if Laming will be investigated by the police in relation to his online harassment, physical stalking and upskirting. He should be.

  11. Well Briefly – I think the internet has no filters (or few of them at least). Its likely to cost Mr Laming his political career.

    I think the problem is people get fixated and the instantaneous nature of the internet means people say things which with calm reflection they wouldn’t.

    Last night c@t accused me of using sex as a weapon – that could be read in many ways – given recent debates. Yet she wouldn’t retract that nasty slur.

    What can you do? We all support free speech but sometimes people go O.T.T

    I would think anybody in politics now would be extraordinarily vigilant not to do anything that can be misconstrued – but I have a nasty feeling Laming won’t be the end of it.

    I’d imagine there’s bound to be a sad Labor themed tale coming ? But maybe I am wrong.

  12. I am still in a state of shock that I thought, like Diogenes, I had found the one honest man in the NSW ALP, Mr Luke Foley, only to find that he had stuck his hand into Ashleigh Raper’s underpants without a specific invitation.

  13. Question: If a male MP has an unpleasant divorce, should the accusations / complaints of the ex-wife be fair game for the media to report upon?

  14. Oakeshott Country @ #3324 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 9:42 pm

    I am still in a state of shock that I thought, like Diogenes, I had found the one honest man in the NSW ALP, Mr Luke Foley, only to find that he had stuck his hand into Ashleigh Raper’s underpants without a specific invitation.

    There you go again, dredging up tired old allegations that have been done to death about Labor. You are so boring and predictable. Doesn’t it embarrass you to be so predictable? And unoriginal.

  15. Seems my 503 error problems are back. The advice from my web host has been to have “my developer” (LOL) look into it. Is there anyone out there with the appropriate skill set who thinks they can help me work out what’s causing this to happen?

  16. “Question: If a male MP has an unpleasant divorce, should the accusations / complaints of the ex-wife be fair game for the media to report upon?”

    I seem to remember that well before Mark Latham became the darling of the lunatic lunar right and was but a simple Opposition leader up against the sainted Howard, the Murdoch media chased down his ex wife for whatever dirt she could dish. I don’t remember how successful they were but that was OK because he wasn’t “one of us” then. And who could forget that very same media hounding Julia Gillard year in year out regarding a 20 year old relationship because, well because they could. Yes – it’s all fun and games until someone gets poked with a stick and loses an eye.

  17. I’m not sure how great an example Luke Foley is given that he had his arse like kicked out of both the leadership and public life soon after the allegations came to light. No “rule of law” for him.

  18. Luke Foley went about 30 months ago and was replaced by the man, whose name I forget who led the party into the last election complaining about Asians, with their PhDs stealing “our” jobs and houses. He was then replaced by Jodi. Fortunately Kaila has been there to ensure that reform will mean that such clowns will never again lead the party of the workers.


  19. Lars Von Trier says:

    I’d imagine there’s bound to be a sad Labor themed tale coming ? But maybe I am wrong.

    I’m sure there will be, the dirt files are being emptied quickly, but look over there will not change things much.

  20. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 9:23 pm
    Well Briefly – I think the internet has no filters (or few of them at least). Its likely to cost Mr Laming his political career.

    I think the problem is people get fixated and the instantaneous nature of the internet means people say things which with calm reflection they wouldn’t.

    Last night c@t accused me of using sex as a weapon – that could be read in many ways – given recent debates. Yet she wouldn’t retract that nasty slur.

    There’s a continuing slur match going on between you, OC, BB and C@t. I see only enmity, grudge, feud and malice in equal portions. It’s a bludger’s bbq.

  21. Who is to judge what’s unpleasant Gareth?

    It could be any of :

    a) Child abuse
    b) He has extra marital sex
    c) He ignored me and the kids was married to the job
    d) He was never home
    e) He goes to hookers

    What’s in the public interest now? What if the MP might be a very average husband/father but a very diligent MP?

  22. Asha Leu @ #3305 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 8:49 pm

    Hang on… now Scott Morrison says he had offered to speak to Brittany about the assault PRIOR to her resigning. What?!
    For 6 weeks he’s insisted to the parliament he didn’t know anything until after it had been aired by the media, weeks later.
    The cover up is unravelling….

    Did he seriously say this?

    Given Scotty’s semantic contortions over the Gaetjens inquiry, it pays to parse his words carefully. In the clip from the Grimshaw interview, SfM didn’t say HE had “offered to speak to Brittany about the assault prior to her resigning”.

    He said “At the time, just before she departed … umm .. she … was offered the opportunity to come and speak with me with Minister Cash”.

    Note the pauses while he got the form of words just right. He’s sure he can weasel his way around this one …

  23. Lars Von Trier:

    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 9:14 pm

    [‘Mavis, do you use “mistake” as a polite euphemism for marital infidelity?’]

    I’m still waiting for the right guy, Lars. So no infidelity on part. However, given I’m in my 70s, I know how poor Miss Havisham must’ve felt.

  24. OC Don’t forget the magnificent position description reform bought in by the NSW ALP.

    They now have a PD – no ambiguity.

  25. Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    BREAKING
    @AndrewLamingMP
    will step down from all parliamentary roles effective immediately
    @newscomauHQ

  26. The Liberal dirt unit may well be putting in overtime trying to spread the manure. Because by golly there is a stench emenating from the right at present.

  27. I think the point was that Michael Daley, a man of little brain and less ability, was already planning a coup against Foley when the accusations came out.
    He had visions of staring into his shaving mirror each morning and saying;
    “Michael Daley, Premier of the New South Welsh”

  28. Liberal Andrew Laming steps aside from ‘parliamentary roles’ after fresh allegations emerge

    Liberal National Party MP Andrew Laming’s career is hanging by a thread after revelations he took photos of a woman’s bottom while her underwear was visible.

    From The Age

  29. frednk – the point is there used to be a conspiracy of silence in Club Fed between the parties regarding matters of the pants. Thats clearly been breached forever now.

  30. Old spoke
    I agree, but he has created a problem for himself.. Higgins has politely said it didn’t happen. We now have weasel words one one hand, not informed on the other. May get him out of question time but doesn’t help min much in the court of public opinion.

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