Sundry recent developments relevant to the next federal election, whenever that may be:
• A report by David Crowe of The Age/Herald relates that a) unidentified Liberals are “saying privately that a poll in the first months of 2022 is most likely”, and that b) the Greens are about to identify nine House of Representatives seats they will be targeting, and believe they would have won the inner Melbourne seat of Macnamara at the last election if the newly published draft boundaries had been in place. The latter propose tidying the electorate’s eastern boundary as a straight line down Williams Road and Hotham Street, which would remove Caulfield and its surrounds and add large parts of Prahran and South Yarra. My own estimates are perhaps a little less favourable for them, indicating a 2.0% boost in the Greens vote to 26.3%, still astern of Labor on 30.7% (down 1.1%) and the Liberals on 36.7% (down 0.6%). Josh Burns comfortably won the seat for Labor in 2019 after the Greens were excluded.
• Marion Scrymgour has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for Lingiari, which covers the Northern Territory outside of Darwin. Scrymgour served in the Northern Territory parliament from 2001 to 2012 and as Deputy Chief Minister from 2007 to 2009, and has more recently been chief executive of the Northern Land Council. The Northern Territory News reports other candidates for preselection included Matthew Bonson, who served in the territory parliament from 2001 to 2008; Jeanie Govan, a town planner; and Rowan Foley, chief executive of the Aboriginal Carbon Foundation.
• The New South Wales Greens have preselected David Shoebridge, who has held a seat in the state upper house since 2010, as lead Senate candidate for the next election. AAP reports Shoebridge won a ballot of 2263 party members ahead of Amanda Cohn, the deputy mayor of Albury, and Rachael Jacobs, a lecturer in creative arts education at Western Sydney University.
• Shortly after reports indicating former Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson would seek preselection for the Nationals’ position on the New South Wales Coalition Senate ticket, The Australian reports Fiona Nash is keep to recover the position, which she lost in 2017 after being disqualified on grounds of dual British citizenship under Section 44. Also identified as a potential candidate is former state party director Ross Cadell.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Alexandra Smith tells us that NSW Emergency Services Minister David Elliott has blamed his cabinet colleague, Water Minister Melinda Pavey, for failing to mitigate Warragamba Dam spilling as western Sydney faces evacuations.
http://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abc-terminates-new-daily-contract-focuses-on-google-and-facebook-20210319-p57c86.html
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/bitter-dispute-between-nsw-ministers-over-warragamba-dam-spilling-20210321-p57cnn.html
The inundation of homes and businesses in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley of western Sydney is tragic for the people affected, but it is no surprise, writes Professor Jamie Pittock.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/stop-putting-people-in-the-way-of-floods-20210321-p57cn6.html
Josh Butler tells us that the embattled federal government’s stumbling responses to mounting sexual assault scandals will face further intense scrutiny this week, with ministers, bureaucrats and police to be grilled in Parliament House. It could be an entertaining week.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/03/22/brittany-higgins-christian-porter/
The SMH editorial urges schools and parents to get better at educating young men about consent.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/women-and-girls-deserve-so-much-better-20210321-p57cou.html
Sean Kelly sees a moment for Morrison to actually DO something.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/our-pragmatic-pm-s-moment-to-shine-by-taking-action-for-women-20210321-p57coz.html
Attempts to form cross-party collaborations of women to lift female representation in our parliaments have not worked, and will not work, argues Meredith Burgmann.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/women-should-not-feel-obliged-to-unite-in-a-kumbaya-effort-to-claim-seats-in-parliament-20210319-p57cct.html
David Crowe writes that taxpayers are funding millions of dollars in contracts for companies that flout laws meant to reveal action on sexual harassment and pay equity, sparking Labor demands for federal intervention to force compliance.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/gender-reporting-federal-funds-to-companies-flouting-rules-20210321-p57cpm.html
AstraZeneca can be made in Australia – but it’s not all good news, warn Samantha Dick and Josh Butler.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2021/03/22/australia-covid-vaccine/
Adam Morton reports that the Minerals Council of Australia has weighed into a European commission climate policy debate, urging it to back fossil fuels with carbon capture use and storage and nuclear power on a list of environmentally friendly developments.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/21/australias-miners-urge-europe-to-define-nuclear-power-and-fossil-fuels-with-carbon-capture-as-sustainable
There are up to 100,000 undocumented workers doing farm work in Australia, many of whom are afraid to access medical treatments, including COVID vaccines, reports Nick Bonyhady.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/calls-to-change-visa-rules-as-undocumented-workers-risk-missing-out-on-vaccinations-20210319-p57ccg.html
Donna Ward trumpets that ghosting and gaslighting from the PM down won’t stop women shattering the silence.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2021/03/22/morrison-ghosting-women/
“Stop asking: what if it happened to our daughters? It’s time to ask: what if it was our sons who did it?”, asks Jacqui Maley.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/stop-asking-what-if-it-happened-to-our-daughters-it-s-time-to-ask-what-if-it-was-our-sons-who-did-it-20210319-p57c5g.html
Men need to step up and call out racism and abuse, like that recently perpetrated by a mob of Kalamunda high school students, writes Cynthia Fenton.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/students-racist-slurs-outrage-community-,14913
The Australian’s Rosie Lewis reports that an ex-housemate of the former Liberal staffer accused of raping his then colleague Brittany Higgins in Parliament House says the man sexually harassed her while they were housemates together.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/higgins-rape-claim-he-harassed-me-too/news-story/13085f04b8e9a52bc463703fc1e1ff50
The five key risks for house price concerns watched by the prudential regulator are all starting to rise according to investment advisor Jarden, but restrictions on lending are more likely to target incomes and debt rather than the values of the property, writes Matthew Cranston.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/risks-rising-for-apra-property-lending-intervention-20210321-p57cls
Jennifer Duke is concerned that superannuation might be facing the same fate as the goose that laid the golden eggs.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/is-superannuation-facing-the-same-fate-as-the-goose-that-laid-the-golden-eggs-20210321-p57cl8.html
The AFR explains how Sanjeev Gupta lived large on the back of rickety financing.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/how-sanjeev-gupta-lived-large-on-the-back-of-rickety-financing-20210321-p57cms
Mark McGowan’s landslide election win is proof of a broad community sentiment that “the Eastern States” have little to offer or teach a contented WA, says Jennifer Hewett.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/smug-west-australians-who-know-west-is-best-spell-trouble-for-morrison-20210321-p57cpa
The spy agency’s decision to stop referring to “Islamic extremism” and “right-wing extremism” will not help to solve these problems, opines the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Anthony Bergin. It’s difficult to disagree with him.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/asio-needs-to-counter-terrorism-with-clear-language-20210321-p57clu.html
In a thoughtful contribution, Amanda Vanstone has a look at modern journalism.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/good-news-gives-us-hope-there-should-be-more-of-it-20210321-p57clw.html
The ABC will terminate its commercial agreements with several news websites, including industry superannuation fund-backed website, The New Daily, in a strategic shift that will focus on agreements with aggregation platforms like Facebook and Google.
Nicholas Stuart absolutely lambasts the UK’s deluded view of itself as exemplified by its recently released Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7176169/should-this-man-really-hold-the-power-to-end-life-on-earth/?cs=14258
Mark Sweeny reports that consumers are facing price rises and shortages of products from TVs and mobile phones to cars and games consoles as a global shortage in semiconductors grows.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/21/global-shortage-in-computer-chips-reaches-crisis-point
Only a small fraction of buildings with flammable cladding have been fixed, and owners are feeling the strain, explain these contributors to The Conversation.
https://theconversation.com/only-a-small-fraction-of-buildings-with-flammable-cladding-have-been-fixed-and-owners-are-feeling-the-strain-157307
While many leaders will be judged to have not done as badly as Trump, why did so many Western nations fail so badly in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, asks Paul Nuki who examines the UK’s failures.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/a-nation-in-the-dock-britain-faces-up-to-heavy-cost-of-its-pandemic-failures-20210321-p57co5.html
According the The Guardian, Donald Trump will soon use “his own platform” to return to social media, an adviser said on Sunday, months after the former president was banned from Twitter for inciting the US Capitol riot.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/21/trump-twitter-ban-social-media-own-platform
Cartoon Corner
David Pope









Matt Golding
David Rowe
Simon Bosch
John Shakespeare
Glen Le Lievre
Mark Knight
Johannes Leak
From the US
Lizzie:
Isn’t that what flood insurance is for?
It is not societies responsibility to rebuild the homes of people who buy on flood planes. Just as it is not societies responsibility to replace houses burnt down or houses that end in the sea.
FMD Cynthia you are part of the problem judging by this Howard era gem you dropped. Yair no one else has this eh,makes ‘us’ special. Not like those ‘non fair go’ non ‘maaaate’ Johnny Foreigners.
Thank you, BK.
The race war, youth futures, youth education, youth employment, youth parole, youth sentencing, youth incarceration, youth lawlessness, vigilantism, are, IMO, a festering sore in many regional towns. IMO, the above pointy ends of the unresolved colonial clusterfuck will be increasingly politicized in places like Kalgoorlie, Alice Springs, and Townsville.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-22/grandmothers-of-tennant-creek-unite-against-crime/13265750
Good ( ❓ ) morning from Newcastle (maybe 12mm rain today)
and
thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
I note that sumbuddy has used the word
whether as a teaser or taunt remains to be seen.
Good day for staying safe and dry. ☔☕☕☔
Frednk
It’s an interesting dilemma. Should the government be responsible for allowing people to build on flood plains? In my Shire we are not allowed to build in landslip areas.
Some legal stuff from Lawyerly – doubt I will get competing burgers to test their weight, meat content etc
“Greensill Capital owes creditors more than $1.75B, faces likely liquidation
The Australian unit of Greensill Capital is heading for liquidation owing creditors in excess of $1.75 billion, administrators revealed Friday.
Big Jack dispute between McDonald’s, Hungry Jack’s heats up after mediation fails
A dispute is cooking over Hungry Jack’s claim its Big Jack burger has 25 per cent more Aussie beef than the Big Mac, with McDonald’s saying it has tested the statement and found the Big Jack weighs less than its rival when cooked.
Injunction granted in branch stacking case against Labor MP
Victorian Labor MP Marlene Kairouz has won an injunction temporarily blocking the Labor Party from bringing branch stacking charges against her.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9386569/AstraZeneca-vaccine-Australia.html
Maybe by Thursday. 💉
Shellbell
Thanks. In relation to Greensill, there was elsewhere an article about Gupta’s finances. I imagine the citizens of Whyalla would be casting a worried eye over same.
It may be that the $100 roast could come home to roost – not via the dreaded renewables but via a blue skies golden oldie of the finance industry.
There could be an arsehole of the week nominee in here somewhere but I imagine that there will be plenty of competition.
‘Injunction granted in branch stacking case against Labor MP
Victorian Labor MP Marlene Kairouz has won an injunction temporarily blocking the Labor Party from bringing branch stacking charges against her.”’
We didn’t even get 100,000 vaccine doses out last week to the population.
What are Feds doing to ramp this up?
CSL might release 1m doses per week but how are we getting them to the population. The logistics are massive.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/foodanddrink/foodnews/food-history-from-the-year-you-were-born/ss-BB1eOetj?ocid=winp1taskbar
Dammit Muriel, why didn’t you tell me to hold off on that new fridge just a couple of months ago ❓
Of course not. The media just place reporters in front of rushing water, or take videos of floating cars. No thought or discussion needed.
I’m sure Guytaur will point to the ACT experience, but enclaves like Canberra aside, the Greens campaigning on their holding the BoP seems fraught.
Last time they wielded a balance of power in the HoR the Greens lost 800,000 vote at the following election: about a third of their total support.
Campaigning on ‘holding Labor to account’ just riffs with the LNP’s ‘vote Labor get the Greens’ scare campaign.
Middle Australia – the folk that have to be persuaded to vote for the progressive plurality hate the Greens and fear them ‘holding Labor to account’.
But don’t worry Adam, ScoMo loves you. No. Seriously. He loves you guys. You’ll end up giving him another term at least on the back of your brilliant strategy.
New word heard on this morning’s ABC-TV coverage from the NSW floods; “apprehensious”.
Thanks again BK.
Leak finally has an amusing cartoon.
Starting to really crank up the vaccinations in the US…
COVID-19 vaccinations in the U.S.:
Partially vaccinated:
▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░
24.33% (+0.58)
Fully vaccinated:
▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░░
13.37% (+0.33)
And in NSW ALP news, I have been told that ‘Don’t you know who I am’, yes Belinda Neal, is appealing losing her appeal over her expulsion from the NSW ALP.
Like a bad penny that keeps coming back, some people in politics never quit thinking the nation is the poorer for their not being a politician.
And Senate Estimates commencing ar 9.00 AEDT, with the plods opening the batting – let’s hope this is not another NSW 2nd XI performance…
The Legal and Constitutional Affairs Legislation Committee hears first from the Australian Federal Police bit.ly/2NPLYhd
#estimates
Australian Ministers Are Targets in Telegram Phishing Scam
The Australian Federal Police said it’s investigating a phishing scam that targeted senior Australian ministers through the Telegram messaging app on their mobile phones.
The phishing campaign, which was first reported to authorities on March 18, “appears to be in the form of a message from an associate and encourages recipients to download a messaging app for further communication,” the Australian Federal Police said in a statement on Sunday. It did not name the officials involved.
The Telegram account of Finance Minister Simon Birmingham was hacked, according to a Sky News television broadcast. Its reporter on Sunday evening tweeted that “whoever has access to his account” is still impersonating him in sending messages to contacts, without saying where she got the information. The police confirmed the activity on Birmingham’s account and the country’s cyber-intelligence agency, Australian Signals Directorate, “has been involved,” the reporter said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-21/australian-ministers-are-targets-in-telegram-phishing-scam?srnd=premium-asia
The problem with The Greens’ facile BOP theory is that, after the 2019 election there are far more safe Liberal/National/LNP seats that would never fall to The Greens in a million years and more marginal Labor seats. Which, of course, are the ones The Greens would target. Which could only mean, after you factor in that more marginal Labor seats would fall to the Coalition as Green fright scares people over to the government side, as absolutely the Coalition would play that tune over and over and over again in an election campaign. So that would mean maybe 1 or 2 extra Greens seats, which used to be Labor, if the rubes believed their BOP guff, but less Labor seats.
Equals, the Coalition would be returned with a greater majority.
Ergo, this idea from The Greens Garden Gnome, can only have come from a session with the Liberal Party with the aim of making sure Labor don’t get into government but The Greens get a seat or two more to brag about.
EU rebuffs UK calls to ship AstraZeneca COVID vaccines from Europe
BRUSSELS (Reuters) – The European Union is rebuffing British government calls to ship AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines produced in a factory in the Netherlands, an EU official said on Sunday.
Former EU member Britain has so far administered many more vaccines than EU countries in proportion to the population.
“The Brits are insisting that the Halix plant in the Netherlands must deliver the drug substance produced there to them. That doesn’t work,” the official told Reuters.
The Leiden-based plant which is run by sub-contractor Halix is listed as a supplier of vaccines in both the contracts that AstraZeneca has signed with Britain and with the European Union.
“What is produced in Halix has to go to the EU,” the official added.
Britain has insisted that contracts must be respected.
“The European Commission will know that the rest of the world is looking at the Commission, about how it conducts itself on this, and if contracts get broken, and undertakings, that is a very damaging thing to happen for a trading bloc that prides itself on the rules of law,” Defence Minister Ben Wallace said on Sky News earlier in answer to a question about Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen’s threat to block exports to Britain.
The European Union threatened on Wednesday to block exports of COVID-19 vaccines to Britain to safeguard scarce doses for its own citizens, with Von der Leyen saying the epidemiological situation was worsening.
Two factories in Britain run by Oxford Biomedica and Cobra Biologics are also listed as suppliers to the EU in the contract with AstraZeneca, but no vaccine has so far been shipped from Britain to the EU, despite Brussels’ earlier requests.
Officials have said that Cobra is not fully operational. AstraZeneca told EU officials that the UK is using a clause in its supply contract that prevents export of its vaccines until the British market is fully served, EU officials said.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-uk/eu-rebuffs-uk-calls-to-ship-astrazeneca-covid-vaccines-from-europe-idUSKBN2BD0RZ
I’ve heard that one before.
Re Frednk @7:48.
Those sums mentioned by Lizzie would be for immediate relief, to buy food, replacement clothes, etc – basically to tide families over. They would not go far in replacing homes, furniture, etc.
Asha Leu @ #25 Monday, March 22nd, 2021 – 8:45 am
Targeting to get more than 10%? 😆
I supported the Australian Democrats for a while. They seemed to want to bring balance to the Howard government, whereas the Greens are currently just spoilers, IMV. I’m sure that Bandt is really a sincere, likeable, and generous person, but he comes over as rather vindictive. So sad.
I’m rather more sympathetic to the Greens than many of the Labor members/rusted-ons here. Those who have been here a while will probably remember that I used to be a pretty fervent supporter of the party.
But Christ almighty do I wish they would just focus their efforts on the the traditional minor party strategies of negotiating concessions for support and influencing the public debate as best they can, rather than this quixotic effort to perhaps win government in 2063. Like, yes, they have every right to compete for House seats that they have strong support in, but hung parliaments are so rare in the federal sphere (I mean, apart from the ones we technically have each time the Coalition are in government), and the seats the end up targetting generally tend to have the effect of both knocking off Labor’s more left-leaning MPs and forcing the party to make up the up the difference in Coalition territory. Both of these things force Labor to drift to the right, which might be great for the Greens’ ability to win votes in future, but surely less so for the impact they wish to have on the Overton Window? (Though, given the statements of candidates like Jim Casey in the past, maybe this is exactly what they want.) Despite
If the Greens genuinely want to be in a position to negotiate a proper coalition with Labor, they really need to look into the sort of symbiotic relationship the Libs and the Nats have developed (or how said coalition has worked in the ACT), because the way that things stand, any future Labor/Greens minority governments would most likely to end in electoral disaster for both parties.
The Europeans might have to rewrite their contract law to remove the everyone just needs to do their best bit
Jim Casey is a Watermelon Green. End of. His membership of the International Socialists has been canvassed here extensively before.
Brilliant Jonathan Pie:
https://youtu.be/j6oGBA8RPK8
Ian Verrender
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-22/how-jobkeeper-turned-into-profit-maker-ian-verrender/100020236
I’d completely forgotten who the federal leader of the Greens is until I saw lizzie’s comment below.
The times don’t really suit the Greens, evidenced by the WA state election where they went backward and failed to get traction on any of their pet issues because all voters were concerned about was Covid safe and Covid recovery and which party is best to manage that.
The Greens are not gaining in primary voting intentions and, if anything, are losing them to Labor. See Bludgertrack at the top right of the page. The Greens needs to better explain to potential voters what their value proposition is.
Also, looking at their webpage, it is an interesting contrast between the celebration of diversity of the people on the front page v. the photos of the office bearers. Interesting.
Cripes. We don’t need Foster or Creighton to design anything for us.
Morning all. Hope you’re all doing ok in this weather. Hasn’t stopped raining here in NSW for days. One of the nearby rivers was on watch yesterday but thankfully is not this morning. The heavy rain is continuing though so not sure if that’s going to remain the case. The footage of the really badly flooded areas reminds me of the 2011 QLD floods. Huge lakes of floodwater.
This is yet another one of these “once-in-100” year events that seem to be happening every damn year now. Last year it was terrible bushfires, this year it’s torrential rain and flooding, then every other year there’ll be a cyclone of unprecedented strength or something like that. When are we as humans going to start taking climate change seriously? Let me guess, now isn’t the time to mention that? Nonsense.
“Last time they wielded a balance of power in the HoR the Greens lost 800,000 vote at the following election: about a third of their total support.”
This statement desparately needs some context.
1. The Greens vote made a massive jump from around 8% in 2007 to around 12% in 2010. In 2013 it went back to 2007 levels – actually a little above. So its actually 2010, not 2013 that should be seen as the anomaly in the Greens vote. 2013 was actually the Greens second best ever primary vote to that time.
2. The Greens vote slumped in 2013 off the back of an even bigger slump in the labor vote. Greens lost around 3%, while labor lost over 4%. Since the two were in an official alliance, the slump in the Greens vote should be viewed as a rejection of the labor-Greens government (of which by far the biggest detractor was the Rudd-Gillard leadershit), more than a rejection of the Greens per se.
“… the Greens are currently just spoilers, IMV. I’m sure that Bandt is really a sincere, likeable, and generous person, but he comes over as rather vindictive. So sad.”
I think the word you are looking for to describe Bandt is Trot.
Looks like coordinated stonewalling in Estimates on the Porter and Higgins allegations
We seem to have a once in a 100 years of having once in 100 years event occurrences event.
sprocket_
I was just about to say the same. Stand by for some fireworks as the stonewalling occurs, Senators get angry and chair Sarah Henderson acting as protector.
“Equals, the Coalition would be returned with a greater majority.”
Labor Logic: A seat going from Labor to Greens somehow increases the Coalition’s majority.
This is obviously false and makes zero sense. A seat swapping from Labor to Greens does not change the Coalition’s count at all.
Furthermore, as we have seen, the Greens are the party which most strongly opposes the Coalition’s agenda, while Labor is often eager to support it (see leaving people in poverty and giving tax cuts to the rich). Ergo Greens replacing Labor in Parliament will make it far less likely that the Coalition’s agenda will be enacted.
It seems that Morrison, still partly hidden under his doona, has ‘published’ a pre-recorded speech about the floods on Facebook, where all comments in response can be edited by his team.
The Senate President Ryan has forgotten his IPA freedom of speech background and is refusing to answer any question about the alleged rape in the building he is responsible for.
BK
I switched over to the Finance and Admin commitee, and the shutters are up – Labor senators are not letting this go
So Scott Ryan can’t talk about the rape incident, nor anything which happened afterwards. Due to an police investigation underway.
So much for parliamentary scrutiny – the commitee is taking a private break to consult.
Oooh. Biffo between Henderson and Carr.
“2. The Greens vote slumped in 2013 off the back of an even bigger slump in the labor vote. Greens lost around 3%, while labor lost over 4%. Since the two were in an official alliance, the slump in the Greens vote should be viewed as a rejection of the labor-Greens government (of which by far the biggest detractor was the Rudd-Gillard leadershit), more than a rejection of the Greens per se.”
Yeah there’s no doubt that the Greens suffered from being associated with Labor during that time. They stood loyally by the Gillard Government and held it up while Labor spent three years destroying themselves fighting over their leadership.
As we have seen in the ACT, when Labor acts more responsibly and doesn’t decide to start a civil war within their own party, the results are far better for all concerned.
“Shellbell says:
Monday, March 22, 2021 at 8:04 am
Some legal stuff from Lawyerly – doubt I will get competing burgers to test their weight, meat content etc…
Big Jack dispute between McDonald’s, Hungry Jack’s heats up after mediation fails
A dispute is cooking over Hungry Jack’s claim its Big Jack burger has 25 per cent more Aussie beef than the Big Mac, with McDonald’s saying it has tested the statement and found the Big Jack weighs less than its rival when cooked.“
Send this one out to a subset of the court of public opinion, namely a bunch of hungry teenagers. They will quickly deliver a verdict one way or the other.