Not the WA election thread

New draft boundaries for Victoria and WA to be unveiled next Friday, plus other matters from the federal sphere.

To keep a general discussion post somewhere near the top of the page, I offer the following:

• Paul Osborne of AAP reports the Australian Electoral Commission has confirmed that the draft federal redistributions for Victoria and Western Australia will be published next Friday. The latter has been the subject of particular media attention over the past week, owing to the potential for Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce to be abolished.

• John Anderson, who served in the House of Representatives from 1989 to 2007 and as Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister from 1999 to 2005, has announced he will seek preselection for the Nationals-designated number two position on the New South Wales Senate ticket. The position is available as a hangover from the Section 44 debacle, which caused the party to lose a seat to the Liberals in the recount that followed Fiona Nash’s disqualification. It was reported last month that state Nationals leader John Barilaro might also seek the position, though this would seem to be rather optimistic of him.

• Kevin Bonham offers a long-range big-picture account of historical opinion polling, which concludes it would be highly unusual for a federal opposition polling only as well as Labor is right now to actually win an election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,462 comments on “Not the WA election thread”

Comments Page 26 of 30
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  1. Interesting to see one of the pictures in the Guardian coverage of the WA protest march is of women holding a manner marked “Women of Pearce United” and a group behind them.

    I wondered this before – has anyone seen any indication of the gender balance in voting from the WA election yesterday?

    I didn’t see any protest materials naming Zac Kirkup, however bad his campaign was.

  2. If you’re trying to make out that somehow I’m in favour of rape, C@t, some kind of “maggot” who enjoys abusing and sexually humiliating women, then you really are trolling.

    I realise you’re on a roll with the march tomorrow and the potential for discomfiting Morrison. But really I doubt whether you give much of a shit about your sisters. I suspect it’s just an opportunity for you to stick it to the Libs; another tribal chance to score one for the Glorious Labor Party.

    Labor’s own worst enemies by far are obnoxious, one-eyed supporters like yourself. You and your type do SO much damage with your red hot anger, tribal vitriol, readiness to seriously slag-off and insult anyone who disagrees with you and your general pugnaciousness, even in the face of attempts at reasoned argument (e.g.. your nasty attacks on the gentle efforts of OC and Shellbell this afternoon). You seem to be permanently pissed off about everything. You have no pity, sympathy or forgiveness. Just rage. I don’t know where you get the energy for such bitterness.

  4. guytaursays:
    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 5:55 pm
    Akon

    That’s called an independent inquiry.

    Labor Greens and many other politicians have called for this for weeks.

    However according to many posters here that’s declaring Porter guilty.
    ____________________________
    Be interesting to see what happens if Labor wins the next election. There’s also nothing stopping any of the Labor state governments starting inquires into sexual harassments and assaults right now.

  5. This was posted hours ago. I still think it’s relevant and it’s not only the journalists profession.

    @PatsKarvelas tweets

    I’m staggered at the level of ignorance about what it’s like to survive a sexual assault. The way you have to rationalise it to survive: Embarsssing for my profession #auspol

  6. Rex Douglas @ #1251 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 6:00 pm

    The women have outlined shocking allegations – including sex without proper consent with intoxicated women, power imbalances and forced kisses – in a private Facebook group for current and former Labor staffers.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/female-labor-staffers-warn-male-mps-they-will-no-longer-keep-their-secrets/news-story/6baf4f0b1d766c24718ff11fee1765c6

    further to that…

    And I’m hearing one of the blokes is a big name frontbencher… https://t.co/ZtsK7SGi85— Mike Carlton (@MikeCarlton01) March 14, 2021

  10. guytaur @ #1261 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 6:13 pm

    This is not good reading for Labor.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/ten-wasted-years-nsw-labor-polls-just-23-9-per-cent-of-primary-vote-20210314-p57ajg.html

    If true Labor cannot coast and ignore it’s left flank for the national election.

    Shocking for NSW Labor. Just terrible.

    NSW Labor leader Jodi McKay would lose her own seat and the party would suffer its worst primary vote in almost 120 years if a state election were held now, according to internal polling that is likely put further pressure on the embattled opposition leader.

    The poll predicts Labor’s primary vote has crashed to 23.9 per cent, a figure lower than the landslide loss of 2011 under former premier Kristina Keneally (25.6 per cent) and an 8.4 per cent drop in primary vote on the 2019 election. It would be the lowest primary vote recorded by Labor since 1904.

  11. Andrew_Earlwood:

    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 5:30 pm

    [‘It could be ominous Mavis. Or it could be a Newscorpse deflection piece launched in conjunction with the PMO to reheat old gruel. Or something in between.’]

    Well, I’d like to think it isn’t, and the timing does seem a little too convenient. But Jenny Macklin thinks there is some truth to the allegations, and I further think that it would be naive to think that Labor’s replete with clean skins as regards the topic under discussion. It is perhaps an ideal time to lay it out on both sides of politics.

  13. “according to internal polling”

    Bulk order of Saxa salt please.

    No state opposition leader is going to be competitive at the moment and NSW is two years away

  14. Assantdj says Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 1:07 pm

    Sexual assault usually happens behind closed doors
    A large proportion of victims freeze as a survival strategy thus decreasing the chance of evidence.

    Probably a sound strategy. Jill Meagher fought back and died as a result.

  15. Rex Douglas says Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 3:19 pm

    This policy is just the latest dogs breakfast of a policy that the flimflam man makes up on the run.

    Morrison is no more a legit PM than the suburban accountant two doors up from me is.

    How this bloke ended up where he is today is truly a miracle.

    Not a miracle, but an example of what can happen when a scheming backstabber is continuously rewarded for their efforts.

  17. lizzie says Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 3:34 pm

    Morrison finally listening to someone other than himself?

    He offered to meet with them, not listen to them.

  20. Reeeeeaaallly???

    The West Australian
    @westaustralian
    · 4h
    Scott Morrison has taken credit for the resounding WA Labor election win and says the Federal Government had “bankrolled” the State through the pandemic

  23. Are these so called internal polls ,
    that the libs/nats propaganda media units claim, the same as Albanese was set to lose his seat to the greens at the 2019 federal election

  24. lizzie @ #1270 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 3:27 pm

    Reeeeeaaallly???

    The West Australian
    @westaustralian
    · 4h
    Scott Morrison has taken credit for the resounding WA Labor election win and says the Federal Government had “bankrolled” the State through the pandemic

    I would have thought initially bankrolling Clive in the High Court was his biggest contribution to the result.

  25. Rex

    It would take a massive margin of error for Labor to be in a good position in NSW even given the known motives for internal polling leaks.

    I still qualified with if true.

  26. Laughtong

    Thank you for posting the Guardian article about a woman on Jobseeker almost starving to death : https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/13/my-friend-rita-was-starving-to-death-how-is-this-even-possible-in-australia-today

    Particular thanks because I now realise that this is happening to a friend of mine in France.

    I would appreciate any advice from anyone on here with ideas.

    Warning long post – so skip to end for TL;DR

    A bit of background:
    Her situation is that she is Scottish, but also an Australian citizen. She is my former sister-in-law, and we have always been very close. I often stay with her in Fontainebleau when I am working in Europe, especially when working in Paris, despite the commute.

    She is 71 and lives with my nephew, who is now in his 40s. They basically have no other relatives, and COVID has taken out almost all of her Scottish family.

    She had a thriving business teaching English for Business in Paris, but in mid-2018 the Tresor Public (like the ATO) decided to audit her. They disallowed most of her business expenses, and as far as we can tell imposed massive fines. She has never been about to get a statement from them. They just cleaned out her bank account in June 2019, and garnisheed all her wages. Since that time she continued to work, hoping that by working she would at least pay off the debt. COVID finally killed her business in September 2020, because businesses have slashed budgets.

    The Tresor Public still insist she owes them about 50 K Euros, and are using this to block her and my nephew getting any benefits at all, despite after 39 years as permanent residents in France them being entitled to benefits. Nephew was doing translations for the business, so he is also now unemployed.

    He is a trained Chef, but cannot get work because 1) COVID has shut everything down, and 2) anecdotally, French people are very angry about Bojo’s treatment of Europeans, particularly the way he sees it as a great joke, and has now managed to disrupt the Good Friday agreement on the island of Ireland.

    So, she has had no income since June 2019, which I realise has been going on for two years.

    She has now used up all her savings in paying for rent, electricity etc (I am amazed she had nearly 2 years money up her sleeve).

    They have only been eating what they can get from the Resto de Coeur (a lot like like Oz Harvest) since November 2019, hoping that a solution would happen before she ran out of money. The only eat one meal a day – vegetable soup, supplemented by cans of lentils when they can get them, which also have sausages in them. I think that have a few times managed to get some fresh chicken, or canned salmon or tuna.

    She complained to me last November that her stomach was swelling, and she could not understand why. Since then she has told me that she is no longer very hungry, and can only eat small amounts of food.

    She had some luck in January when a woman at one of the charities heard her story and was horrified. She has helped them with doctor’s appointments and medications, which seems to be helping a bit. But although the helpful woman knows that they are entitled to a pension and unemployment benefits, she is quite concerned about getting them help now that Brexit has gone through.

    My friend has had an atrial septal defect since childhood, picked up in karratha when she was pregnant many years ago. She forgot about it, but 10 years ago it became a problem, and she had a “patch” put on it. She had health insurance at the time. However, her doctor told her that she needed the “largest” patch, and she needed follow-up.

    She has not been to a doctor in two years – in the French system you usually need to pay even at public hospitals. Her friendly lady at the charity has organised for her to be seen for free.

    Last Thursday, after having fainting episodes for several weeks, she was. given a voucher for the hospital, and they took an ECG, and consequently she has been referred to a cardiologist in the next town. She will need to walk the 20 mins uphill to the station, and literally jump on the train without paying, hoping not to get caught.

    Any money I can give her she uses to pay to keep the internet on, and electricity on. They have not had hot water or heating throughout winter.

    So, questions:
    1) Should I send her some money, and the article by Laughtong, and beg her to buy food with it.

    2) Ideally I should able to buy her groceries and get them home-delivered, but even using a VPN I have not been able to do this. My daughter tells they are matching the IP address of the credit card issuer with the IP address I am using in France, and hence blocking me. But when I was in France, my credit card worked fine for online purchases of rail tickets and flights etc. Also for groceries.

    3) I am on long service leave leading up to retirement (although still working on research), and could possibly get an exemption on compassionate grounds to travel to France, but I would need to stay out of Australia for over three months. Should I try to do this? Is the situations this urgent? I am planning on using small bit of my superannuation to buy one of those 50K Euro dwelling around Bordeaux, but cannot do so until I can get to France – I now I have tried hard. And I am an EU (Irish)citizen.

    4) should I try and encourage her to relocate to Scotland? She does not have any money do this at the moment, but I have heard that that if she could get there she would get medical care, housing and financial support. I know that in England or Australia she would get nothing, because she has lived in France too long.

    Any suggestions are gratefully received, and as I have three children who work in finance, I know the customary warning about “you should not regard this as official advice, or rely on it to make any decisions”.

    I have also heard recently about a French woman living close to me, who has no income, and has to shop at OzHarvest. I really hope she is not in such a dire situation. I think I will find out more about the anti-poverty network.

  28. The polling which has been shown Gladys is the close to being the lowest rating premier

    1- Corruption

    2-Ruby princess fiasco is well in the minds of voters

  29. Nothing like an old leader spurned

    “It’s heartbreaking. [NSW] Labor voters everywhere deserve better and the sense of despondency is palpable,” Mr Iemma said. “These numbers are basically an indication that the last 10 years have been a complete waste of time. There’s been no reset, no rebuild, it’s just been 10 wasted years.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/ten-wasted-years-nsw-labor-polls-just-23-9-per-cent-of-primary-vote-20210314-p57ajg.html

    I guess Morris will blame McKay for Gladys’s governments rampant corruption.

  30. Up here, we laugh at statistics like these, sprinkle them on our Nutri Grain for breakfast, and then gear-up for a real day of rain.:

    In Sydney’s north-west, West Pennant Hills recorded 34 millimetres in the 24 hours to 9am, while North Rocks copped 30 millimetres. In Mona Vale on the northern beaches, about 19 millimetres fell in the same period.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/mercury-drops-as-heavy-rain-hits-sydney-with-more-wet-weather-ahead-20210314-p57aii.html

    Try 142mm in the same period and you can come to training with us up here (no guarantee of making the team, though).

  31. The announced inquiry sounds like a good option for the parliament house culture but the devil is in the detail.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-05/independent-inquiry-established-kate-jenkins-brittany-higgins/13191250

    I see three problems:
    1. We need to see the terms of reference. Will it deal with employment contract conditions that seem to be the nub of the problem?
    2. Will Morrison commit to adopting all recommendations. Scomo is notorious for not even acting on Royal Commission findings.
    3. And it still won’t deal with the Porter allegations.

  32. Some of you might be interested in googling the obituary of Dorothy Lee (Weinert) Lehrmann, late of Brenham, Texas, before it mysteriously disappears from the internet.

  33. OC

    The NSW Liberals may have escaped the Ruby Princess.

    Koala Killer is going to be a good Greens campaign slogan for the Greens if Labor doesn’t use it about Gladys

  36. Douglas and Milko:

    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 6:32 pm

    If I were you, I’d send her money to pay for her relocation to Scotland provided that she would be eligible under the NHS. It just goes to show how good most have it here.

  37. D&M
    what a quandry?

    1. You are going to get wedged if you don’t get vaccinated before leaving Australia, because sure as eggs you will need to be vaccinated to return. Although perhaps you can get vaccinated in Europe.

    2. Does your friend want to return to Scotland or does she feel she has a future in France?

    3. Can you send her money without Tresor snaffling it? Using Australian moving costs moving from France to Scotland would be at least $3000 probably $5000

    Hope someone else has better advice

  38. The poll was supplied to Fairfax by the AWU – so who is the AWU candidate for ALP leader?

    It is very likely I won’t recognise the name

  39. D&M, your friend sounds like she is (or was) getting beri-beri. That’s awful.

    My suggestion woukd be to try to get her out of France and into Scotland, post haste.

    But I wonder whether the Frogs will let her leave France with that tax debt?

  42. guytaur says:

    The NSW Liberals may have escaped the Ruby Princess.
    ——-

    This is a joke right

    recent leaders polling shows Gladys is one of the lowest in handling of the corona virus , ruby princess is still in the mind of voters

    Think it was essentials poll

    Gladys was 44%

  44. Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 6:50 pm
    The poll was supplied to Fairfax by the AWU – so who is the AWU candidate for ALP leader?

    It is very likely I won’t recognise the name
    __________________________
    Yes it sounds like polling as hit-job. The AWU+HSU as the forces of reform. What next?

  45. Oakeshott Country @ #1291 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 6:50 pm

    The poll was supplied to Fairfax by the AWU – so who is the AWU candidate for ALP leader?

    It is very likely I won’t recognise the name

    Seeing as the AWU is all in on fossil fuels (gas) then….

    NSW Labor politicians owe it to blue collar workers and families to support the development of onshore gas projects , says the Australian Workers’ Union.

    The AWU has written to all NSW Labor MPs urging them to reject a bill that would put a halt to the Narrabri Gas Project threatening thousands of jobs in the process.

    The upper house bill being proposed by independent MP Justin Field has received the support of NSW Labor leader Jodi McKay – a move which the AWU says is a sign the party now values the Green minority over the very real employment of manufacturing workers.

    https://www.awu.net.au/news/2020/06/12090/nsw-labors-blocking-of-gas-projects-a-handbrake/

  49. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 6:57 pm
    Honestly, NSW Labor should just turn off the lights and shut the door.
    _________________________________________
    When will the post-ALP era start in NSW? Maybe it will be like the fall of communism , when Sussex Street falls?

    There will definitely need to be a truth and reconciliation commission.

  50. guytaur says:
    Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 6:58 pm
    Scott

    No joke.
    I think the Nationals and ICAC did more damage.
    ——————————–
    I still have doubts that gladys will be the leader of the liberal party , when the state election does come around

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